Good article on the Russian Economy imploding

Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
1 expert says one thing another expert says another thing, we believe the expert who fits in with our own thinking and mentality.
Click to expand...

You're thinking of Brexit, although it was quite a search to find experts in any sector who thought it was a good thing. It's another example of Brexiters stupidity that, of course. They had terrible judgement and their stupidity, by which I mean they were ignorant of the impairment bias can have on our decision making process, meant that they were unable to correct for this.

The authors and analysts do discuss the alternate versions that are out there and why they should be taken with a pinch of salt.

You need to be as much an expert on how the Kremlin operates as an analyst of economics.

That's why if Bill Browder recommends this article and is vouching for the people behind it and their methodology, you can have quite a lot of confidence in it. Browder is quite a remarkable individual.

podcasts.apple.com

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler: 🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder on Apple Podcasts

Show This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler, Ep 🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder - Apr 25, 2022
podcasts.apple.com
 
NZBoro1 said:
Heard this the other day and it seems quite apt:

‘If you lay all the economists down in a line around the world you still wouldn’t reach a consensus’
Click to expand...

Not when it comes to the Gravity Theory of economics. They will hang their hat on that, because it is proven time and time again.

Try this from about 2 minutes 30 if you can't be bothered with the whole video.

 
Lefty said:
The authors and analysts do discuss the alternate versions that are out there and why they should be taken with a pinch of salt.

You need to be as much an expert on how the Kremlin operates as an analyst of economics.

That's why if Bill Browder recommends this article and is vouching for the people behind it and their methodology, you can have quite a lot of confidence in it. Browder is quite a remarkable individual.

podcasts.apple.com

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler: 🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder on Apple Podcasts

Show This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler, Ep 🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder - Apr 25, 2022
podcasts.apple.com
Click to expand...

Despite some on here and Russia claiming they’re not working, they evidently are

All this **** they’re doing regarding the wheat exports in Ukraine are because they want the sanctions lifted, because it’s hurting them . They are evidently trying to blackmail the west with African famine if we don’t remove sanctions

We should be tightening the grip , if anything.

You can guarantee if these sanctions weren’t hurting them they wouldn’t be paying trolls and using bots to spam about how western sanctions aren’t hurting them and we should ease them
 
Lefty said:
Not when it comes to the Gravity Theory of economics. They will hang their hat on that, because it is proven time and time again.

Try this from about 2 minutes 30 if you can't be bothered with the whole video.

Click to expand...
No real arguments to that, although perhaps should have phrased the 2 labour leaders of the time slightly differently.
 
ThePrisoner said:
When this was tried with Japan they bombed Pearl Harbor. Just saying.
Click to expand...

The USA was not believed to have nukes at the time.

Japan was also an empire at the time and actually had a formidable army in ww2. Russia knows especially with its performance against Ukraine so far it would get its **** handed to it by nato
 
Lefty said:
You're thinking of Brexit, although it was quite a search to find experts in any sector who thought it was a good thing. It's another example of Brexiters stupidity that, of course. They had terrible judgement and their stupidity, by which I mean they were ignorant of the impairment bias can have on our decision making process, meant that they were unable to correct for this.

The authors and analysts do discuss the alternate versions that are out there and why they should be taken with a pinch of salt.

You need to be as much an expert on how the Kremlin operates as an analyst of economics.

That's why if Bill Browder recommends this article and is vouching for the people behind it and their methodology, you can have quite a lot of confidence in it. Browder is quite a remarkable individual.

podcasts.apple.com

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler: 🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder on Apple Podcasts

Show This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler, Ep 🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder - Apr 25, 2022
podcasts.apple.com
Click to expand...
I'm not thinking about Brexit in the slightest. You are thinking about Brexit. Which kind of proves my point.
 
Nosmo-King said:
I heard a report totally different. Oil and gas prices helping them rouble increased in value v US Dollar so you pays your money and takes your choice!
Click to expand...
If you read the article it debunks that, the value of the rouble's kind of unimportant if they can't trade it, they can't buy dollars then it's exchange rate is effectively n/a
 
Redwurzel said:
The Russian Government unlike the UK Government has little debt.

The Chinese and Indians will buy Russian oil and gas all day long if its discounted say by 20% or more.
Click to expand...
They are now in deficit according to this article. So eventually they will build debt. It could take time, yes, I doubt anyone expected it to instantly grind them to a halt. What the war has done is shake up europe to ween itself of russian gas, and turn them into a pariah state. There is a huge risk to them with the $300B which has been seized, if that is handed to Ukraine for reparation, then it'll absolutely tank the russian economy, hand in hand with the other measures.
 
Expat Smoggie said:
The Russians will live on potatoes if forced, although it's fair to say that the economic situation is negatively affecting the Russian military [if reports are to be believed] with food supplies starting to be rationed.
Click to expand...
sounds a bit like North Korea, if they want to be the pariah state, so be it.
 
You made a good general point about people believing the expert they want to believe. It’s confirmation bias.

That was an error Leave voters made, but not an error here.
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
How do you know?
Click to expand...

That this was an error Leave voters made?

Because if they had actually looked at the credentials and track record of those they believed, if they had actually tested the claims they were making and the knowledge they professed to have against the credentials, track record and claims of the other side and been able to do it in an unbiased way, they would have appreciated voting Leave was not the smart choice.
 
Natural Gas is Germany's biggest energy source (a country of 83m?) where are they buying it from now instead of Russia?

Coal power stations have been shut on environmental grounds and nuclear in Germany on safety grounds. They have no oil or gas sources of their own, limited hydro. They have quite a small coastline for wind and in the winter limited solar.

The same for a lot of other European countries.

Its takes years to change energy supplies/sources

Some LPG can be bought from countries like Qatar, but they can't suddenly replace Russia - hence the price of natural gas has gone through the roof. So even if Russia sells less gas it receives more cash. Longer term it will lose out as countries do switch to more renewables and nuclear, but we are talking 8 years to build a nuclear plant.

Ref Sources of Information - check agendas

I use sources like Money Week which is an independent financial publication. It is not political driven.
 
If we compared every westernised country on food inflation over the past 7 months we'd probably see similar results, and that is your $10 shopping basket just got 30 percent lighter in terms of the groceries you can buy, or 30 percent more expensive, depending how you look at it.

If we look at Iran and how it's faired over the past 20 or so years with endless sanctions we see that sanctions while they do hit the working class don't have the same sort of impact at the ruling or elite classes, who in-turn can use their powers of persuasion through obvious corrupt channels. Here's a recent new snippet from Adam Tooze, who seems to have his head screwed when it comes to common sense around the money markets.

Iran is still completely cut off from the world’s financial system, including the Swift payments network that now excludes some Russian lenders. Its economy has suffered significantly. IMF figures suggest that gross domestic product per capita sank 15 per cent across 2018 and 2019 and that Iranians will not regain 2016 levels of living standards until at least a decade later. Inflation, which hit 48 per cent at the end of 2018, is forecast to remain well above 25 per cent. But in a sign of the potential impact on Russia, Iran’s oil exports to friendly countries continue and the economy has not collapsed after decades of restrictions. Supermarket shelves are usually full, and petrol stations rarely suffer fuel shortages. Wealthier Iranians, many of whom have political ties to the leadership in Tehran, have maintained their luxurious lifestyles. “With a nuclear agreement, Iran can have 15 per cent economic growth,” said Saeed Laylaz, an Iranian analyst. “Without an agreement, if oil prices remain high and Iran can continue to sell 1mn barrels a day [of oil] or so, and with rises in taxation, it can run the economy and have [modest] growth.”
 
Lefty said:
That this was an error Leave voters made?
Because if they had actually looked at the credentials and track record of those they believed, if they had actually tested the claims they were making and the knowledge they professed to have against the credentials, track record and claims of the other side and been able to do it in an unbiased way, they would have appreciated voting Leave was not the smart choice.
Click to expand...

You can look at track records as much as you want. You're still affected by bias in who you choose to believe. our opinions and decisions are based on bias. The actual knowledge we have is very very little. We continually make decisions based on very little knowledge because we have to.

You can see from your posts here that Brexit became very personal to you. You've just snuck it in here to try and get some insults in. Prime example of how emotion affects opinion. You are a remainer because it fits in with who you are as a person. You see opposing opinions as a personal attack on you. Hence the constant need to get in digs to anyone you suspect to be a brexiter.

Regarding Russia. None of us know. I don't think Putin will be brought down by sanctions. That's not based on anything more than my natural pessimism. I don't know anything about the subject. It would be nice to read someone more positive but like I said it's behind a paywall.
 
Wasn't there sanctions on the USSR and they still managed to land men on the moon - unless that was not true and made up by Soviet propaganda?

Sanctions will probably make life diffcult for the authorities and ordinary people of the Russian Federation - who will they blame - Putin or the Capitalists in the West?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top