BoroMart
Well-known member
Last time he had a full fit season at this level, he was in the 95th percentile for non penalty goals, 85th percentile for xG, and 88th percentile for conversion rate.It is a gamble because this guy hasn't showed any indication that he's a prolific scorer, he has had injury problems, he hasn't played regularly for a year and - most of all - it's £2 million less in the budget to find a 20+ goals striker.
That's plenty of evidence to indicate he is a prolific scorer, can he do it week in, week out, rather than as a backup? That's another question. But he undoubtedly has the ability to put it in the onion bag, and if we get 16 from him as a starter, double what he got for Brentford as a sub (and a very realistic target) then he would be our second highest league goal scorer since Ravanelli.
It's all about points not one person getting 20+. Many teams get promoted without a 20 goal striker (Forest CF had 12 goals, Sar had 13 for watford the year before, Bamford got 16 for Leeds when they went up and the same year Sarr and Robson-Kanu got 10 each for West Brom. 20+ is a nice to have, not a pre-requisite.
In those same 4 seasons, Grabban, Watkins, Armstrong, Moore, Brereton, Piroe and Weiman all got 20+ goals and failed to get promoted. There's a very week (if any) correlation between having a 20 goal striker and promotion.
We let in 50 goals last year, with a rubbish goalkeeper, poor LWB options and no leader at the back. Swap Steffen for Lumley, Lenihan for one of the CBs, and Giles for Bola/Taylor and we will let on a lot less than 50. That takes pressure of "needing" a 20+ goal CF.