The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

I have said this earlier we really are in for a horrible winter. I live in Central Beds and we are the tier with lowest restrictions, tier 1 i believe. So our restrictions stay the same as previous. I would, however, gladly go into a stricter lockdown. I believe the government have not gone far enough, and with a crumbling track and trace I can only see one outcome. I cling to the hope the virus has mutated enough to cause less death.
 
Laughing said:
OK read it TAD and I get where you arrive at your conclusions from. You are saying that because the peak of deaths was the 8th of April and there is some time between infection and death, and also a lag in collecting figures, that the peak of infection had passed and so lockdown had limited or no effect, I guess that is your point?

Now ignoring some of the wording in that article, what goes up must come down analogy being the worst, it says that deaths are the only measure you can use. I would agree that it is the most accurate as it is less disputable.

If you had argued we shut down too late to have maximum effect, or you argued that infections would have reduced anyway as the infection is seasonal you would also be right and I don't think most people would argue with that. But let me ask you this, what would the death toll have been with no lockdown? Is your argument that it would have been roughly the same as transpired with lockdown? If that is the case do you have any evidence of this?

I said months ago, along with many others on this board, locking down just a week earlier would have saved 10's of thousands of lives. Yes infection rates would have dropped as the infection is seasonal. All that says is that we locked down too late, not that lockdown was pointless and that it did not save lives.

If you are using that evidence to suggest that a lockdown as we go into winter will be pointless, then I really don't get that and there is no evidence in that article to support that viewpoint. Furthermore, if that is what you are suggesting, it's a valid scientific viewpoint, but if it's wrong we will have so many people on ventilation that we will run out of facilities and doctors to treat patients and more will die than would be necessary. Let me ask you this, would you order no lockdown and sit and watch people die in the hope, after winter you would be proven right?

The assertion that this is just a seasonal disease is probably right, but it is a particularly deadly one.

From that article I don't agree with you. I didn't watch the chris witty interview as I find him difficult to stomach, we never knew what the R number was that early on in the pandemic, there was a lot of guesswork going on and all the testing was targeted so was pretty useless in figuring out the R number.
Click to expand...

Billy, I'll reply to your post after this, though it may be later as I have a little work to do after replying to Laughing. Though just to say I'll check again his wording, your interpretation could be correct I will re-check. I would also add here that my comments were not a criticism of the choice of timing of lockdown, this is all retrospective analysis and Whitty was not in that position.

Firstly, yes, nasty virus, no disagreement there, though the extent to which various countries have been hit I won't get into here.

I'm not sure sure locking down a week earlier would have made any difference, and others share this view (Michael Yeadon for one - I will include a link to a very good twitter thread from him later in the post). The virus was likely already in hospitals and care homes by then and circulating. "Lockdown" of the general population would have made little difference as those most likely to sadly die were in hospital and care home settings. It is important not to look at case numbers for the timings as we know that the cases we were recording were a fraction of the true number (not a criticism) so while it may have looked like cases were rising and then began to fall after interventions were put in place (this is what I thought and used to explain to people), in reality the number of new daily infections was falling already...... and you may like to think why? We'll come onto that after a couple of graphs.

Look at the graph below for the deaths of France, UK, Spain, Italy. The curves are almost identical, it the mathematical result of a natural phenomenon like a virus passing through a population. I will also include this in another thread were hysteria is developing. Look at the daily deaths back in March and compare them with now. Also look at the rate of increase, why is it much less shallow? Because it has already run through most of the susceptible population.

Look at Spain and France. They are plateauing and the UK will plateau in the not too distant future. And we know if daily deaths have plateaued then infections will have too. We'll come onto why they won't increase substantially shortly. Also, look the daily deaths and tell me you honestly think we are anywhere near the situation we were in back in March? We're not, despite what a fear mongering press (all political persuasions) and now government scientists (yes, the people who are meant to be looking out for you aren't).

I'll say more on this later because the government are now actively lying to and misleading the public, aided and abetted by government scientists. Luckily there are plenty of people far smarter than I calling them out on this. The public needs to know and needs to stand up to this, it really is a matter of your freedoms and has nothing to do with public health. The opposition is seemingly putting up no resistance and so it will be for the public to do so.

1602526119710.png

Now lets look at the UK and Sweden. I have chosen to compare deaths per million as obviously the UK is much larger and has more deaths so this representation allows a clearer comparison. While Sweden had many of the same restrictions/guidelines as us (work from home if possible, maintain distancing) there were also very clear differences. Bars and restaurants stayed open, hairdressers and gyms stayed open. Sweden also has low levels of mask wearing (though mask use didn't come in the UK till the middle of summer - when it was completely pointless). I could also make other comparisons between Sweden and other countries with harsh lockdown. The lockdown makes no difference. The data is clear. The idea that "lockdown" a week earlier would cut deaths is based on a model which does seem to have some logic - I believed it at first but comparisons between Sweden and countries with harsh restrictions shows the ultimate result to be the same, just as the likes of Tegnell suggested.

1602531020477.png

I'll finish by addressing a couple of other of your points:

I think you are misunderstanding the implications of "seasonal". You said "Yes infection rates would have dropped as the infection is seasonal." - Incorrect. Infections dropped because the virus had passed through the most susceptible, some of which sadly died, and so had fewer susceptible people to infect.

Before the final point, let me ask a question. I've already explained that lockdown had no influence on UK deaths and that Sweden had the same deaths per million as the UK with much looser restrictions, so what do you think caused infections to drop?

Immunity - It was the fact that the virus had spread through the susceptible and had fewer susceptible people to infect. It really is that simple. We have a level of immunity (besides antibodies which seem to reach ~20% at peak infections) which protects us. It is how the human race has fought of virus's for many many years.

So yes, a lockdown going into winter will achieve nothing, nothing at all. Why would we need to anyway? We have little susceptible population left. I've already explained (and have shown the data from this epidemic) why this is the case. There will be small outbreaks and people will die. This is not unusual. You are assuming that cases and deaths will continue to rise without evidence/data (daily cases are now plateuing as expected, following France and Spain). If the NHS cannot cope with this rise (which is currently in line with what happens every year at this time of year with respiratory viruses) the the government has failed again.

~50 people per day (reported date, not specimen date, we'll come to that, very important) will die with/of Covid for a while. If we do not have the Ask yourself how many people die of cancers, heart attacks, strokes, dementia etc each day. It is dwarfing covid deaths - please please please consider this and put this virus into context. And look back at those graphs!

Please consider the impacts on families, elderly people in care homes who cannot see family (who supporters of these ludicrous lockdowns claim to help!), businesses, livelihoods.

Finally, (phew this is long, but important)..... please do have a look at this twitter thread from Michael Yeadon (former CSO of Pfizer). It covers Blair's bonkers testing idea, Spain flu second wave myths, immunity, testing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1295638130062753792
 
Not to mention @T_A_D bojo himself in the briefing tonight said that infections were slowing before lockdown.

I'm quietly confident that the data is looking good in terms of the actual pandemic.

People forget this happens every year when flu season starts, it's too early to say for sure mind.

Unfortunately the same cannot be said for policy.

I shall forewarn you that trying to get people like laughing to reassess his position is impossible.
 
Saw a news report earlier that ICU's have lots of people in them. Which is odd as ICU's usually have lots of people in, especially as the weather begins to change.
Don't want to add to your workload Billy, but any chance you can add weekly flu and pneumonia deaths to your posts? Would make an interesting comparison.
 
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants said:
and still people don’t see what is unfolding in front of their eyes.
Click to expand...

Data please. Source?

Is that hospitalisations as a whole? All admissions? Covid admissions? How does it compare to this point in time in an average year. At this point in time you need to question everything this government and media are throwing at you.

RandySavage said:
Saw a news report earlier that ICU's have lots of people in them. Which is odd as ICU's usually have lots of people in, especially as the weather begins to change.
Don't want to add to your workload Billy, but any chance you can add weekly flu and pneumonia deaths to your posts? Would make an interesting comparison.
Click to expand...

I'm just about to upload the ICU graphs from ICNARC to show a comparison between occupations now and back in March for covid. These all track triage data, app data. We are following the same track as Spain which has already plateau'd.
 
1602535967032.png

From the ICNARC website (report from 9th Oct: https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports). Note, these are confirmed Covid admissions to ICU. Gaz, Jonny.... please look at this data from the 9th October. We are no where near anything like March. Surely you can see this?

1602536963477.png

Admissions for before Sept and from Sept onwards. Clear divide between north and south, very little in the South now, North under more pressure completely as expected.

Question everything this government and media are saying. The have a deception to continue, here's an explanation of why.....


Whitty, Vallance, Van Tam, Powys, Edmunds, Hornby etc all complicit in this. If they have alternative data which shows the virus could still be a significant threat it needs to be released. If they actually think only 8% of people have been infected they are either stupid, ignorant, or actively misleading the British public. What a sorry mess for Science, Michael Levitt (who I still think has got some things wrong) sums it up:

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1277543879793836032

And finally, a thought to the next few months of fighting this lockdown nonsense..... It is pretty likely I will have to make some uncomfortable decisions about bedfellows..... any demos I go to will likely contain anti-vaxxers (though I will agree with them about one for coronavirus at least any rushed vaccine), people who think its a fake (its not) or people who think its caused by 5 g (ArggggH!). I am no fan of Nigel Farage at all but in a recent tweet about a plan by the home office to use nets to catch immigrants he stated the line:

"We are led by idiots"
 
T_A_D said:
Billy, I'll reply to your post after this, though it may be later as I have a little work to do after replying to Laughing. Though just to say I'll check again his wording, your interpretation could be correct I will re-check. I would also add here that my comments were not a criticism of the choice of timing of lockdown, this is all retrospective analysis and Whitty was not in that position.

Firstly, yes, nasty virus, no disagreement there, though the extent to which various countries have been hit I won't get into here.

I'm not sure sure locking down a week earlier would have made any difference, and others share this view (Michael Yeadon for one - I will include a link to a very good twitter thread from him later in the post). The virus was likely already in hospitals and care homes by then and circulating. "Lockdown" of the general population would have made little difference as those most likely to sadly die were in hospital and care home settings. It is important not to look at case numbers for the timings as we know that the cases we were recording were a fraction of the true number (not a criticism) so while it may have looked like cases were rising and then began to fall after interventions were put in place (this is what I thought and used to explain to people), in reality the number of new daily infections was falling already...... and you may like to think why? We'll come onto that after a couple of graphs.

Look at the graph below for the deaths of France, UK, Spain, Italy. The curves are almost identical, it the mathematical result of a natural phenomenon like a virus passing through a population. I will also include this in another thread were hysteria is developing. Look at the daily deaths back in March and compare them with now. Also look at the rate of increase, why is it much less shallow? Because it has already run through most of the susceptible population.

Look at Spain and France. They are plateauing and the UK will plateau in the not too distant future. And we know if daily deaths have plateaued then infections will have too. We'll come onto why they won't increase substantially shortly. Also, look the daily deaths and tell me you honestly think we are anywhere near the situation we were in back in March? We're not, despite what a fear mongering press (all political persuasions) and now government scientists (yes, the people who are meant to be looking out for you aren't).

I'll say more on this later because the government are now actively lying to and misleading the public, aided and abetted by government scientists. Luckily there are plenty of people far smarter than I calling them out on this. The public needs to know and needs to stand up to this, it really is a matter of your freedoms and has nothing to do with public health. The opposition is seemingly putting up no resistance and so it will be for the public to do so.

View attachment 7443

Now lets look at the UK and Sweden. I have chosen to compare deaths per million as obviously the UK is much larger and has more deaths so this representation allows a clearer comparison. While Sweden had many of the same restrictions/guidelines as us (work from home if possible, maintain distancing) there were also very clear differences. Bars and restaurants stayed open, hairdressers and gyms stayed open. Sweden also has low levels of mask wearing (though mask use didn't come in the UK till the middle of summer - when it was completely pointless). I could also make other comparisons between Sweden and other countries with harsh lockdown. The lockdown makes no difference. The data is clear. The idea that "lockdown" a week earlier would cut deaths is based on a model which does seem to have some logic - I believed it at first but comparisons between Sweden and countries with harsh restrictions shows the ultimate result to be the same, just as the likes of Tegnell suggested.

View attachment 7449

I'll finish by addressing a couple of other of your points:

I think you are misunderstanding the implications of "seasonal". You said "Yes infection rates would have dropped as the infection is seasonal." - Incorrect. Infections dropped because the virus had passed through the most susceptible, some of which sadly died, and so had fewer susceptible people to infect.

Before the final point, let me ask a question. I've already explained that lockdown had no influence on UK deaths and that Sweden had the same deaths per million as the UK with much looser restrictions, so what do you think caused infections to drop?

Immunity - It was the fact that the virus had spread through the susceptible and had fewer susceptible people to infect. It really is that simple. We have a level of immunity (besides antibodies which seem to reach ~20% at peak infections) which protects us. It is how the human race has fought of virus's for many many years.

So yes, a lockdown going into winter will achieve nothing, nothing at all. Why would we need to anyway? We have little susceptible population left. I've already explained (and have shown the data from this epidemic) why this is the case. There will be small outbreaks and people will die. This is not unusual. You are assuming that cases and deaths will continue to rise without evidence/data (daily cases are now plateuing as expected, following France and Spain). If the NHS cannot cope with this rise (which is currently in line with what happens every year at this time of year with respiratory viruses) the the government has failed again.

~50 people per day (reported date, not specimen date, we'll come to that, very important) will die with/of Covid for a while. If we do not have the Ask yourself how many people die of cancers, heart attacks, strokes, dementia etc each day. It is dwarfing covid deaths - please please please consider this and put this virus into context. And look back at those graphs!

Please consider the impacts on families, elderly people in care homes who cannot see family (who supporters of these ludicrous lockdowns claim to help!), businesses, livelihoods.

Finally, (phew this is long, but important)..... please do have a look at this twitter thread from Michael Yeadon (former CSO of Pfizer). It covers Blair's bonkers testing idea, Spain flu second wave myths, immunity, testing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1295638130062753792
Click to expand...
I'll go through this later TAD. It looks interesting and I'll reserve judgement until I have read all the links and considered it some.
 
T_A_D said:
View attachment 7451

From the ICNARC website (report from 9th Oct: https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports). Note, these are confirmed Covid admissions to ICU. Gaz, Jonny.... please look at this data from the 9th October. We are no where near anything like March. Surely you can see this?

View attachment 7452

Admissions for before Sept and from Sept onwards. Clear divide between north and south, very little in the South now, North under more pressure completely as expected.

Question everything this government and media are saying. The have a deception to continue, here's an explanation of why.....


Whitty, Vallance, Van Tam, Powys, Edmunds, Hornby etc all complicit in this. If they have alternative data which shows the virus could still be a significant threat it needs to be released. If they actually think only 8% of people have been infected they are either stupid, ignorant, or actively misleading the British public. What a sorry mess for Science, Michael Levitt (who I still think has got some things wrong) sums it up:

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1277543879793836032

And finally, a thought to the next few months of fighting this lockdown nonsense..... It is pretty likely I will have to make some uncomfortable decisions about bedfellows..... any demos I go to will likely contain anti-vaxxers (though I will agree with them about one for coronavirus at least any rushed vaccine), people who think its a fake (its not) or people who think its caused by 5 g (ArggggH!). I am no fan of Nigel Farage at all but in a recent tweet about a plan by the home office to use nets to catch immigrants he stated the line:

"We are led by idiots"
Click to expand...

Of course the list of 'advisors' are complicit, they're all political appointments. There will be plenty of scientists out there more qualified but they don't share the correct political ideas or are too 'independent'. The advisors are safe pairs of hands to the government, they're not going to rock the boat.

I listened to a consultant from a major Newcastle hospital talking on local news last night, he stated we're a long way from having to use Nightingale hospitals. Was it an unedited piece that someone is getting their backside kicked for today, it went against all other messages coming from the media.

We are led by idiots, so we can't say we're not properly represented.
 
We’re 9 months into a pandemic, there’s isn’t enough known about this virus one way or another just to let it rip

herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine
 
Alvez_48 said:
Not to mention @T_A_D bojo himself in the briefing tonight said that infections were slowing before lockdown.

I'm quietly confident that the data is looking good in terms of the actual pandemic.

People forget this happens every year when flu season starts, it's too early to say for sure mind.

Unfortunately the same cannot be said for policy.

I shall forewarn you that trying to get people like laughing to reassess his position is impossible.
Click to expand...
Do one ya nutter! :)
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
Of course the list of 'advisors' are complicit, they're all political appointments. There will be plenty of scientists out there more qualified but they don't share the correct political ideas or are too 'independent'. The advisors are safe pairs of hands to the government, they're not going to rock the boat.

I listened to a consultant from a major Newcastle hospital talking on local news last night, he stated we're a long way from having to use Nightingale hospitals. Was it an unedited piece that someone is getting their backside kicked for today, it went against all other messages coming from the media.

We are led by idiots, so we can't say we're not properly represented.
Click to expand...
The media are just as bad.
Hospital in Blackpool with a full icu ward of 8 beds. Yes 8. Oh and they neglected to mention 2 of them were getting discharged from the ward the next day.


"Yes it's ok, I might be dying of covid-19 but I'll give you a telly interview".

You are all been had.
 
GazC_MFC said:
We’re 9 months into a pandemic, there’s isn’t enough known about this virus one way or another just to let it rip

herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine
Click to expand...

The human race has never "fought" a respiratory virus.
They arrive do their worst and pass, for now.
There are no vaccines for viruses that have plagued the world for time immemorial.
Why should anyone think this one is any different.
 
Got a letter off of imperial college and ipos Mori asking me to take part in a voluntary covid-19 swab test.
Sent off for one. Question is what do I test?

Me?
A fruit?
My cat?
A block of cheese?
 
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