The end?

Gosh, C4 News was bleak just now (on +1). Questioning the appetite and ability to carry on providing weapons indefinitely and saying wars like this can go on for a decade.
 
Fattyfoggon said:
I think that's part of Russia's strategy hang in there long enough until West lose their appetite to help Ukraine, hopefully the West won't give up on Ukraine
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Attrition seems to be the Russian area of expertise, same as in the Second World War I suppose.

No doubt the Ukrainians historically will know a thing or two about this as well but they can only go on for so long against a much bigger enemy.
 
Littlejimmy said:
Gosh, C4 News was bleak just now (on +1). Questioning the appetite and ability to carry on providing weapons indefinitely and saying wars like this can go on for a decade.
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I don't think there is a cat in hell's chance this happens. Just think about what happened last night. The Russian occupiers in Crimea ran out of air defence missiles one hour ... or one and a half if you believe them... hours into a 4 hour assault. Their military losses can not be replaced, and Ukraine, unlike Russia, is purely targeting military assests. It simply can't go on. of course, Putin and Shoigu and whoever else is making the decsions are not yet directly affected. They have no military experience or knowledge anyway. In 18 months, we've gone from 40km columns of Russian tanks and APCs heading for Kiev to to Russians dispersing their Black Sea fleet and losing 10 fighter jets in one 4 hour attack.
 
Update ... it goes on.

"In the last one I wrote on the Cause in the form of heaps of drones and missiles.

But what did all that ordinance do?
Did it have tactical effects?
Did it have strategic effects?
Did it even have political effects?

I will here look at the entire campaign, not only last night big hubbub.
It is also good to remember that this is an ongoing process, with the end goal being the retaking of Crimea, and that as I am writing this missiles and drones are once again slaming into targets.

The campaign started in the Northwest and in the Western parts of Kherson.
One could even claim that this campaign started by the retaking of Snake Island and rebuilding that into a massive missile and drone fortress.

The next step was to degrade the air defence in occupied Western Kherson, this enabled Ukraine to fly missiles and drones on a shorter trajectory.

During this time when Ukraine started to use Seadrones more frequently to hunt ships.
This over time pushed the Russian fleet out of this part of the Black Sea.

Then came the hit of the large radar facility in Chornomor'ske that enabled Ukraine to start picking apart the air defence in the Northwestern Crimea.
And then came a series of raids where Ukraine liberated the oil and gas-platforms that Russia stole in 2014 and rebuilt into radar and air defence missile hubs.

Now Ukraine had two line of free attack into Crimea, all they needed was to expand their area of aerial dominance.
Radar after radar was taken out, air defence system after air defence system was taken out, and ship after ship was taken out or damaged by Sea Drones.

Next step was Sevastopol, by crushing the air defence here they could finally start to take out the ships directly.
From there Ukraine went for the air defence systems and radars across Crimea.

Then came yesterday.
I am not gonna rehash all of the hits, so let us concentrate on a single one.
Saki Airbase.
8 airplanes was destroyed, two fuel tanks destroyed and several damaged, one munitions depot, and the air defence systems.

Similar destruction occured in Dzhankoi, Balbek, Yevpatoria, Hvardi'ske, Viline, Pereval'ne, Armiansk, Krasnoperekopsk, Chonhar, Feodosia and Kersh.
What is happening tonight is basically cleanup operations of what they did not get last night.
Especially of any parts of any remaining air defence system.

Tactically almost every single step on the road has been succesful, and if not, they just tried again.
This lead to the strategic success towards the goal of disarming Crimea.

Yesterday was a tactical gain in terms of destroyed equipment, but strategically it was the beginning of the true Crimean campaign.

There are 3 strategic goals achieved.
The first is the disarmament (for now at least) of the Russian air defence in Crimea.
This in turn caused Russia to start moving out all of the air force in Crimea.
If it could fly it took off today in the direction of mother Russia.
We are even seeing trucks emptying out stores and munition dumps.

Strategic achievement 1 and 2 in turn caused the Russian Black Sea Fleet abandoning their massive base in Sevastopol, heading for Novorossiysk, a much more cramped facility.
Some units are also moving to Rostov-on-Don that are of less importance.
After the ships will follow a fleet of trucks with equipment and stores.

Here comes the political effect.
The main political and military goal of the occupation of Crimea was to get permanent control of the naval base.
The secondary goal was getting control of the Kersh Strait.
To all points and purposes Russia just lost the entire reason for starting the 2014 war.

I wish that Strelkov/Girkin was free and able to speak about this.
His vitriol of this Russian "achievement" would have reached Toba Eruption levels.

Now, something that most people are missing, if not all that are not in the Ukrainian command circuit, is that Crimea is losing the bulk of their soldiers during this move.
Except for the army units on the Northern approaches holding the line, there are no regular Russian units that are not air defence protection units, marine and naval staff, or air force staff and guards.
And most of those are going where the air force goes, or with the navy.

And, the air defence personel are by now pointless and will probably be sent for the meatgrinder on the frontlines.
In a way, Ukraine just almost demilitarised Crimea.
Isn't it nice when the enemy does as you wish?

In a couple of days Crimea will be even more poorly defended than Southern Kherson...."

There's a hint in there.

.
 
But it is, and does go on and on and on.
The West, tragically, will move on.
Poland has had enough.
And God knows what will happen in the States.
Of course you are right, it won't affect Putin and despite all the nonsense about him being dead he's still pulling the strings and apparently bomb proof... still.
The weeks of so called breakthroughs don't seem to be having much impact on 'The end'.
All the more tragic for it.
 
zzzzz said:
But it is, and does go on and on and on.
The West, tragically, will move on.
Poland has had enough.
And God knows what will happen in the States.
Of course you are right, it won't affect Putin and despite all the nonsense about him being dead he's still pulling the strings and apparently bomb proof... still.
The weeks of so called breakthroughs don't seem to be having much impact on 'The end'.
All the more tragic for it.
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The states are becoming irrelevant here.
The poland thing is nuanced and political. Don't worry. It's about optics.
Putin may be pulling strings, but he is not the same Putin you remember from 2 years ago.
Putin/Shoigu are the main reasons that Ukraine is in the ascendency now.
 
zzzzz said:
But it is, and does go on and on and on.
The West, tragically, will move on.
Poland has had enough.
And God knows what will happen in the States.
Of course you are right, it won't affect Putin and despite all the nonsense about him being dead he's still pulling the strings and apparently bomb proof... still.
The weeks of so called breakthroughs don't seem to be having much impact on 'The end'.
All the more tragic for it.
Click to expand...
More fool Poland if reports are true. I may be naive but it smacks of relying on NATO were the worst to come. I can’t see NATO just saying meh to that. So much rides on the alliance being an alliance constantly. I think sense will come to the fore and it is all about political posturing in the short term from Poland. I hope reality is somewhat different.
 
coluka said:
More fool Poland if reports are true. I may be naive but it smacks of relying on NATO were the worst to come. I can’t see NATO just saying meh to that. So much rides on the alliance being an alliance constantly. I think sense will come to the fore and it is all about political posturing in the short term from Poland. I hope reality is somewhat different.
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Poland is about farming, and that dispute is Political. They are on side with Ukraine .. it's optics for the grain farming lobby (their grain is cheaper etc)
 
zzzzz said:
But it is, and does go on and on and on.
The West, tragically, will move on.
Poland has had enough.
And God knows what will happen in the States.
Of course you are right, it won't affect Putin and despite all the nonsense about him being dead he's still pulling the strings and apparently bomb proof... still.
The weeks of so called breakthroughs don't seem to be having much impact on 'The end'.
All the more tragic for it.
Click to expand...
Bear in mind there’s an election coming up in Poland, the noises are about votes. The big picture hasn’t changed.
 
zzzzz said:
But it is, and does go on and on and on.
The West, tragically, will move on.
Poland has had enough.
And God knows what will happen in the States.
Of course you are right, it won't affect Putin and despite all the nonsense about him being dead he's still pulling the strings and apparently bomb proof... still.
The weeks of so called breakthroughs don't seem to be having much impact on 'The end'.
All the more tragic for it.
Click to expand...
There are already noises in Poland undermining their PMs statement. Polands history and existential fears place them completely against the RF.
They believe if UKR fail, then they’re next,
 
zzzzz said:
But it is, and does go on and on and on.
The West, tragically, will move on.
Poland has had enough.
And God knows what will happen in the States.
Of course you are right, it won't affect Putin and despite all the nonsense about him being dead he's still pulling the strings and apparently bomb proof... still.
The weeks of so called breakthroughs don't seem to be having much impact on 'The end'.
All the more tragic for it.
Click to expand...
Forgive this response as its not meant to come across as snippy but what I would say is

But it is, and does go on and on and on - It has to go on until Ukraine itself decides it ends what that "win" looks like
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Some of - The West, tragically, will move on

Poland has had enough - During a general election campaign when a populist party has to shore up votes on a populist issue directly impacting Ukraine

What will happen in the states - By the time a bad thing may happen at the end of 24, the US will have become less important to Ukraine than othe rmajor parties anyway as is happening right now. The US dithering over ATACMS and actually delivering M1's are hopefully the last hurdles to overcome in terms of what they can offer then Ukraine can stop expending energy in that direction and focus on reliable European partners.

Putin - Ruzzia when it gets kicked out of Ukraine wont be the same as when it invaded and Putin is a lot less bomb proof than he was.

The impact of Breakthroughs are definately happening its not just about the ownership of territory thats a day to day measure of success although they are now happening as well. If you want territory gains consider the Western Black Sea as liberated. The degradation of Ruzzian forces is incrementally increasing. The evidence of the impact of the massive air attack on Crimea 2 nights ago are starting to emerge - devastating and opening more future possibility. Definately breakthroughs.

Yes, it is tragic
 
Decent_Left said:
Poland has had enough - During a general election campaign when a populist party has to shore up votes on a populist issue directly impacting Ukraine
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I think you are reading this wrong. I suspect that despite the noises from the farmers in Poland there is a large majority of Poles supporting Ukraine and see the risk of allowing Russia to succeed in Ukraine. Also significant that we see reports of Ukrainian refugees driving Porsches and Mercedes whilst claiming benefits in Poland. Russian bots. Russia does have a previous in using social media and press influence to manipulate voting in elections. Expect this to go away quite quickly.

There are crises approaching for Russia, the loss of Crimea and their major Black Sea port at Sevastopol will not be something that they can spin at home. They will lose Crimea at some point before the US elections, I cannot see how they might hang on there. That seems to be the Putin strategy to await burnout from the democracies. I don't think that will happen quickly enough to save the SMO.
 
Muttley said:
I think you are reading this wrong. I suspect that despite the noises from the farmers in Poland there is a large majority of Poles supporting Ukraine and see the risk of allowing Russia to succeed in Ukraine. Also significant that we see reports of Ukrainian refugees driving Porsches and Mercedes whilst claiming benefits in Poland. Russian bots. Russia does have a previous in using social media and press influence to manipulate voting in elections. Expect this to go away quite quickly.
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Yeah sorry that was my point, its a domestic election issue that appears to be quite acrimoneous but i suspect the high profile rhetoric would go away toot sweet after the election although the issue would still be live.
 
I have been riveted by this post, as clearly lots of others are , too.
We are reading what is a naturally biased account from somebody actioned stationed at the business end of things for Ukraine.
What worries me, when considering the general reporting, is that this is going to be a war that just goes on and on. Ukraine could be in ruins - a lot of the eastern towns and villages are clearly already ruined.
Are NATO just allowing this war to keep running because they know it is depleting Russia's resources hour by hour, day by day?
Most importantly, just how many people are going to be slaughtered - Ukrainian and Russian?
Look at the human costs of recent wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, north Africa.

It seems to be globally agreed that this whole situation was a result of stupid, old soviet ideals and Russian nationalism thinking that Ukraine is supposed to be part of Russia. If the feeling of Nationalism is so strong as to start this invasion, how can it be stopped? What are the limits Russia is willing to go to? If, as is being reported in these posts, Russia is slowly being forced back, wouldnt there come a point when Putin/Shoigu think they might retreat and drop tactical nukes on the advancing Ukrainian forces? As egotistical and psychotic as Putins and his people are - would they not prefer to push the button rather than face the humiliation of defeat? The rumoured russian internal coups have only gone as far as two days of Wagner driving towards moscow and we know how that ended.
 
MoggasDog said:
I have been riveted by this post, as clearly lots of others are , too.
We are reading what is a naturally biased account from somebody actioned stationed at the business end of things for Ukraine.
What worries me, when considering the general reporting, is that this is going to be a war that just goes on and on. Ukraine could be in ruins - a lot of the eastern towns and villages are clearly already ruined.
Are NATO just allowing this war to keep running because they know it is depleting Russia's resources hour by hour, day by day?
Most importantly, just how many people are going to be slaughtered - Ukrainian and Russian?
Look at the human costs of recent wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, north Africa.

It seems to be globally agreed that this whole situation was a result of stupid, old soviet ideals and Russian nationalism thinking that Ukraine is supposed to be part of Russia. If the feeling of Nationalism is so strong as to start this invasion, how can it be stopped? What are the limits Russia is willing to go to? If, as is being reported in these posts, Russia is slowly being forced back, wouldnt there come a point when Putin/Shoigu think they might retreat and drop tactical nukes on the advancing Ukrainian forces? As egotistical and psychotic as Putins and his people are - would they not prefer to push the button rather than face the humiliation of defeat? The rumoured russian internal coups have only gone as far as two days of Wagner driving towards moscow and we know how that ended.
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Our man reckons that, worst case, Ukraine will be free of Russian troops bey next November, but the hope is that capitulation or political change will happen before then.
Interesting article here (obvs with Kyiv POV)

kyivindependent.com

Uncertain Triumph: Ukraine picks apart Russia's best air defenses in Crimea

The past month has not been kind to Russia's forces in occupied Crimea. In a span of weeks, a ship, a submarine, and multiple air defense systems were destroyed. Ukraine said these targets included Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, optimistically named the Triumph. Purported...
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
 
borolad259 said:
Our man reckons that, worst case, Ukraine will be free of Russian troops bey next November, but the hope is that capitulation or political change will happen before then.
Interesting article here (obvs with Kyiv POV)

kyivindependent.com

Uncertain Triumph: Ukraine picks apart Russia's best air defenses in Crimea

The past month has not been kind to Russia's forces in occupied Crimea. In a span of weeks, a ship, a submarine, and multiple air defense systems were destroyed. Ukraine said these targets included Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, optimistically named the Triumph. Purported...
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
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I really hope so but I think it is impossible to predict and no offence but he had been way off previously with his predictions it still feels like it could last for years :(
 
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