The end?

Me and @borolad259 spoke in private not to worry gents.

I feel like his mate has gotten too close to this to be honest. Everywhere else you read suggests that things have not gone to plan in the 'counter offensive', it worries me that this is becoming existential not just for Russia but for elements within NATO.
Very very dangerous times we're living in.
 
You are getting accuarate information from someone with access to that information plus an insight as to what it is like on the ground at the front. If you don't believe it and instead chose to believe journalists who aren't there and who are getting their information from secondary and tertiary sources at best, then that is entirely up to you. Anyone making statements suggesting that I personally don't care about the future of innocent people including my own kids and grandkids will get booted, just as they would if it was someone else.
 
Rofesleg said:
Quite an emotional and reactive response from yourself there borolad.
He may not have worded it particularly sensitively but the point was valid. It does seem like a big risk to make assumptions regarding the capability of Russia's 2500 nuclear missiles. Hopefully TPTB are better informed.
I haven’t read the whole thread so apologies if I am jumping two-footed nto a private argument.
Click to expand...

You are, unwisely.
 
Right, back to business. Kersh.

"So, the reports are starting to come in on the status of the Kersh Bridge.
Russia has now upgraded it to a "special air defence exercise", but is still refusing to admit any hits.

Leaving on smoke generators for more than 24 hours in a row is very risky, they create a lot of heat and there is a definite risk that the diesel droplets can ignite in the air by now.
At best they will soon probably fail anyway.

In the real part of the world it is though confirmed that several columns are damaged with large cracks in them, the span over the shipping channel is damaged, and at least one car deck is damaged.
The rail bridge is severely damaged and all rail traffic is suspended for the time being while repairs are attempted.
The car traffic is suspended while they evaluate the damages.
All shipping is suspended due to the damages to the span across the shipping channel and the risk that the span might drop on a ship.

It is unlikely that the bridge will be able to sustain a follow up attack.
We do not see it becoming operational within the next couple of months.

Panic
The Russians are now in full panic mode.
There are close to two million tourists in Crimea, without food, water, fuel, etcetera.
Remember that the logistics chain to Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia was already down, so they can't feed them the other way.
2 million tourists go through a lot of food and water per every day...
2 million starving Russian citizens with Telegram and VKontakte accounts are now happily sending back complaints about their ruined vacations and general misery.
The optics for the Kremlin is truly awesomely bad.

The Problem is compounded by the lack of ships, and the closure of shipping performed by Ukraine.
Ukraine has openly stated that they are closing down shipping on (if I remember correctly) Wednesday.
After that they will attack ships going for Russia that are military, or suspected dual use.
So, Russia does not even dare put any of them on a ferry even.
Only way home would be probably to walk over the bridge, hopping between damaged sections going from the two car bridge sections...
Regardless it is now apparent to the Russian government that they have to somehow evacuate them.

It is also becoming apparent that they will have to move away their fleet somehow, and probably their army.
Panic does not even come close to describing the situation in Moscow tonight.
The next few days will probably be very interesting.
We will see!"

In addition to this information, it is clear that the biggest problem now for the Russian forces at the front is lack of food and water. My mates' unit have been periodically "borrowing" Russians to interrogate them on the situation in and around "the Castle". The captain they took hadn't had a cup of tea for weeks. The commandos stationed there are resorting to fishing in order to feed themselves .... which my mates troops are allowing them to do. Imagine being so hungry that you walk a kilometer or two to fish, knowing that there are snipers watching you. In the Castle, there is a borehole, so fresh water is not a problem. In the trenches it's another matter. They are collecting rainwater. One of the captured soldiers from the castle said he had paid the equivalent of 10 quid for a tin of beans. In the trenches, there's cannibalism.

You'll note that the Russians are always keen to hold onto settlemennts...... hamlets with small farms etc. This is not just because they offer cover. Each one will have a well or wells, so clean water. In between .... not a lot.

All the small "nipples" of territory gained by the Russians in recent weeks were achieved at great cost. And they have managed to retain none of them as far as I am aware.

The narrative in the media that the counter-offensive is going badly has died down. I think that there is a growing awareness of why the UAF have taken things slowly. We'd all like this finished and for the senseless bloodshed to stop, but whilst those in power in Moscow still have control ... and they seem to have eliminated threats from opposition ... then they will continue on the same path. The alternative for them is death or the ICC. The best hope is for them to be toppled. Maybe there is a little more hope for that now that there is discontent in Moscow .... the war has come to them, and with tourists in Crimea reporting home. The Kremlin has been able, up to now, to project an image that everything is going to plan and that the people are being protected. If it no longer looks like Putin/Shoigu etc can offer that protection, things may change. The image of strong leadership is taking a hit.
 
borolad259 said:
Right, back to business. Kersh.

"So, the reports are starting to come in on the status of the Kersh Bridge.
Russia has now upgraded it to a "special air defence exercise", but is still refusing to admit any hits.

Leaving on smoke generators for more than 24 hours in a row is very risky, they create a lot of heat and there is a definite risk that the diesel droplets can ignite in the air by now.
At best they will soon probably fail anyway.

In the real part of the world it is though confirmed that several columns are damaged with large cracks in them, the span over the shipping channel is damaged, and at least one car deck is damaged.
The rail bridge is severely damaged and all rail traffic is suspended for the time being while repairs are attempted.
The car traffic is suspended while they evaluate the damages.
All shipping is suspended due to the damages to the span across the shipping channel and the risk that the span might drop on a ship.

It is unlikely that the bridge will be able to sustain a follow up attack.
We do not see it becoming operational within the next couple of months.

Panic
The Russians are now in full panic mode.
There are close to two million tourists in Crimea, without food, water, fuel, etcetera.
Remember that the logistics chain to Kherson and Zhaporizhzhia was already down, so they can't feed them the other way.
2 million tourists go through a lot of food and water per every day...
2 million starving Russian citizens with Telegram and VKontakte accounts are now happily sending back complaints about their ruined vacations and general misery.
The optics for the Kremlin is truly awesomely bad.

The Problem is compounded by the lack of ships, and the closure of shipping performed by Ukraine.
Ukraine has openly stated that they are closing down shipping on (if I remember correctly) Wednesday.
After that they will attack ships going for Russia that are military, or suspected dual use.
So, Russia does not even dare put any of them on a ferry even.
Only way home would be probably to walk over the bridge, hopping between damaged sections going from the two car bridge sections...
Regardless it is now apparent to the Russian government that they have to somehow evacuate them.

It is also becoming apparent that they will have to move away their fleet somehow, and probably their army.
Panic does not even come close to describing the situation in Moscow tonight.
The next few days will probably be very interesting.
We will see!"

In addition to this information, it is clear that the biggest problem now for the Russian forces at the front is lack of food and water. My mates' unit have been periodically "borrowing" Russians to interrogate them on the situation in and around "the Castle". The captain they took hadn't had a cup of tea for weeks. The commandos stationed there are resorting to fishing in order to feed themselves .... which my mates troops are allowing them to do. Imagine being so hungry that you walk a kilometer or two to fish, knowing that there are snipers watching you. In the Castle, there is a borehole, so fresh water is not a problem. In the trenches it's another matter. They are collecting rainwater. One of the captured soldiers from the castle said he had paid the equivalent of 10 quid for a tin of beans. In the trenches, there's cannibalism.

You'll note that the Russians are always keen to hold onto settlemennts...... hamlets with small farms etc. This is not just because they offer cover. Each one will have a well or wells, so clean water. In between .... not a lot.

All the small "nipples" of territory gained by the Russians in recent weeks were achieved at great cost. And they have managed to retain none of them as far as I am aware.

The narrative in the media that the counter-offensive is going badly has died down. I think that there is a growing awareness of why the UAF have taken things slowly. We'd all like this finished and for the senseless bloodshed to stop, but whilst those in power in Moscow still have control ... and they seem to have eliminated threats from opposition ... then they will continue on the same path. The alternative for them is death or the ICC. The best hope is for them to be toppled. Maybe there is a little more hope for that now that there is discontent in Moscow .... the war has come to them, and with tourists in Crimea reporting home. The Kremlin has been able, up to now, to project an image that everything is going to plan and that the people are being protected. If it no longer looks like Putin/Shoigu etc can offer that protection, things may change. The image of strong leadership is taking a hit.
Click to expand...
Sounds like it is truly desperate for some of the Russian conscripts - dehumanising.
 
borolad259 said:
Their leadership doesn't care about them at all.
Click to expand...
This is a historic attitude that is a thread throughout Russian history common to the Tsars and The Soviets. It is enlightening to read and understand a little of the Russian mentality. The people have been conditioned to "accept their lot in life" this is being eroded in Russia itself as the people are more educated and through the Internet aware of the life that can be led elsewhere. But Russian Leaders have always been quite willing to spend the blood of their "Empire" without blinking. This was also seen in the conflicts with Napoleon, The Crimean War, WW1, the Bolshevik revolutions, WW2 and even (to a lesser extent) in Afghanistan. I expect that it goes back further too.
 
And by the way, I didn't think your friend could go up in my estimation but
borolad259 said:
I am having a zip of rum from Guatemala watching the ocean writing this.
Life is good for now, I hope that remains.
Click to expand...

now I find he has exquisite taste.

Zacapa or Botran I expect. Not many better than either.
 
Screenshot_2023-08-14-14-10-12-73_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-08-14-14-09-11-34_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
The Ruble is getting into more and more trouble daily and this is with Russian efforts to keep it afloat. Only time it has been worse is when it had a short peak after the invasion. With this financial instability and the attacks within Russia things are going to start really kicking off internally in Russia as the common people realise the SMO isn't going so well.
 
Lefty said:
And by the way, I didn't think your friend could go up in my estimation but


now I find he has exquisite taste.

Zacapa or Botran I expect. Not many better than either.
Click to expand...

His wife is Guatemalan .... actually back there at the moment as she is a Paedeatrician in a hospital. Hopefully she gets to see him soon as well.

His other fave tipple is Armenian cognac.
 
borolad259 said:
His wife is Guatemalan .... actually back there at the moment as she is a Paedeatrician in a hospital. Hopefully she gets to see him soon as well.

His other fave tipple is Armenian cognac.
Click to expand...

Well, if anyone deserves regular access to cheap quality rum it's this fella.
 
borolad259 said:
His wife is Guatemalan .... actually back there at the moment as she is a Paedeatrician in a hospital. Hopefully she gets to see him soon as well.

His other fave tipple is Armenian cognac.
Click to expand...

Ah I miss Armenian cognac, Ararat is the famous one, but I had quite a few in my time in that part of the world, the Kazakhs, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks all could do a decent cognac too!
 
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