YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

exiledinboro said:
While Starmer has been in charge for Labour the Tories were ahead in the polls up until Dec 2021 which is the equivalent of 20 months.

Party gate coincided with the change in polls and Labour have been ahead for 10 and a bit months

The polls are already starting to narrow and Sunak needs to get about a 1% poll lead per month to gain parity in the polls in time for the next election

He’s managing to cut it by about 5 to 10 points (depending on the poll) already in 2 weeks

My guess is he’s going to be a very low key prime minister who’s polling will rise. I’m tempted to hold off until his announcement in 2 weeks but let’s see

Now if you think Starmer should continue to have a low profile and hold off on policies that’s fine, we will find out in a few years if that was the correct thing to do
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Daily Mail (no less) reporting today that Sunak us already fading in the polls and Labour lead is up 4% in a week.

At that rate by the next election the Tories will be somewhere around minus 400…
 
Clearly, of late, the public are starting to see Labour as the next government and the conservatives as a disaster. That is going to take some shifting, and, short a major event isn't going to happen. The polls will move in and out over the coming months, depending on the days news. Once the tories start to campaign they will close the gap. The main 2 metrics in polls are:
Voting intention
Most trustworthy with the economy

Labour are ahead on both and are very likely to go into the next election ahead on both, though I expect voting intention to close up a bit.
 
Laughing said:
Clearly, of late, the public are starting to see Labour as the next government and the conservatives as a disaster.
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They are the government in waiting, that's pretty damned obvious to everyone. Truss was parachuted in as someone to take the flak when they get booted from government but she was just too useless to last. So now Sunak is being sacrificed. He's a bit more capable but he knows this is a short term gig and his legacy would be 'not as bad as Boris or Truss' before he gets booted.
 
BoroMart said:
They are the government in waiting, that's pretty damned obvious to everyone. Truss was parachuted in as someone to take the flak when they get booted from government but she was just too useless to last. So now Sunak is being sacrificed. He's a bit more capable but he knows this is a short term gig and his legacy would be 'not as bad as Boris or Truss' before he gets booted.
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Not sure it is obvious to SuperStu though Mart :D
 
exiledinboro said:
Chris the poll we are looking at show they are taken every 3 days. It’s there in black and white in the tweet👆

So the poll taken just before Sunak took over by the same company; compared to the latest update (yesterday) shows Sunak has reduced the gap by 9 points in 2 weeks

There’s now 18 points separating Labour and the Tories so he’s reduced it by over 1/3 🤷🏻‍♂️

This is the same poll but just before Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583913284050132992
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One was Delta poll and the other is Opinium which uses a totally different methodology, not sure why you're trying to compare them and if you are then Opiniums most recent poll increased Labours lead again.

Deltapoll rarely produce weekly updates, the one on 28th to 31st Oct was against a poll produced 2 weeks before that and as I said they are a correction of Truss's failings more than an approval of Sunak.

You need to stop picking polls that suit your own narrative and look at the polling average over a longer time frame as this will provide a better representation.

Another note is polling companies are polling more frequently than normal due to the current political instability.

Just to add, Deltapoll do not weight "don't knows" at all, they are excluded whereas Opinium weight them based on previous voting choices and Brexit vote which massively favours the Tories.

Excluding don't knows effectively reduces the sample size, so for Deltapoll and their ~1k sample size, it can make for significant variations in poll results.

Basically, do not look at one pollster.
 
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exiledinboro said:
Chris, below is only Deltapoll and shows the last 4 samples to show the impact of Sunak

13-17th October (Truss)
Cons - 23 (0)
Lab - 55 (0)

22-23rd October (Truss)
Con - 25 (+2)
Lab - 51 (-4)
————————————
28-31st October (Sunak)
Con - 26 (+1)
Lab - 51 (0)

4-7th November (Sunak/yesterday)
Con - 29 (+3)
Lab - 47 (-4)

Sunak has improved Tories by (+4) since he took over
Labour have dropped (-4) since Sunak took over

It’s still a change of 8% since Sunak took over and leaves a current gap of 18 points. 1/3rd 🤷🏻‍♂️

And a 14% change in 1 month from sample 13-17th Oct
Con (+7)
Lab (-7)

https://deltapoll.co.uk/polls-library
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I literally just explained about not using one pollster to prove a trend. The post Truss polls are an anti Truss correction, there's no evidence that it's a Sunak boost, that will become apparent after the budget.

As I explained, Deltapoll remove don't knows, which will produce polls that vary massively.

Other polls produced a similar correction but have since been flat.
 
Chris_Boro said:
I literally just explained about not using one pollster to prove a trend. The post Truss polls are an anti Truss correction, there's no evidence that it's a Sunak boost, that will become apparent after the budget.

As I explained, Deltapoll remove don't knows, which will produce polls that vary massively.

Other polls produced a similar correction but have since been flat.
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Exiled is either misunderstanding or deliberately picking data to site his argument.

In any event its not a sunak effect its a dump truss effect
 
Laughing said:
Not sure it is obvious to SuperStu though Mart :D
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SuperStu said:
That's a different thing though. The point I was responding to was whether a wishy-washy centrist is 'exactly what the country needs right now' not who's most likely to win an election.
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I'm not sure what's so hard to understand?

Yes I agree, looking at the polls Starmer will probably be the next terrible prime minister who does nothing to resolve the issues the UK faces. (y) Congratulations to anyone excited by that prospect.
 
exiledinboro said:
I see Wes Streeting the shadow health secretary is making the news after claiming under Labour the NHS will be free of charge but will be run by private corporations. That the model is outdated. He also thinks Labour have learned the lesson and won’t be investing more money into the NHS
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Can't see this anywhere on teh web

exiledinboro said:
Labour are going to change nothing and can’t even be trusted with the NHS
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The alternative is the Tories who have proven themselves to destroy the NHS. The performance was better under labour than today under the toriea that's a measurable fact
 
exiledinboro said:
I see Wes Streeting the shadow health secretary is making the news after claiming under Labour the NHS will be free of charge but will be run by private corporations. That the model is outdated. He also thinks Labour have learned the lesson and won’t be investing more money into the NHS

Labour are going to change nothing and can’t even be trusted with the NHS

I’m not voting for them. I really have been wavering but it’s utterly pointless
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Who will you vote for, seeing as though you've already decided?
 
exiledinboro said:
I see Wes Streeting the shadow health secretary is making the news after claiming under Labour the NHS will be free of charge but will be run by private corporations. That the model is outdated. He also thinks Labour have learned the lesson and won’t be investing more money into the NHS
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So I've watched you r clip and he didn't say this at all. You have simply put your words in his mouth.

He even stated that more money will need to be put in short term. But that the essence of his comment was that we can't keep putting more and more and more in, we need to look at different ways of funding. That's called a strategy, something this current government don't have. He also didn't state what that strategy was, you've just made one up and said that's his strategy. That sys more about your trustworthiness than his
 
exiledinboro said:
I see Wes Streeting the shadow health secretary is making the news after claiming under Labour the NHS will be free of charge but will be run by private corporations. That the model is outdated. He also thinks Labour have learned the lesson and won’t be investing more money into the NHS

Labour are going to change nothing and can’t even be trusted with the NHS

I’m not voting for them. I really have been wavering but it’s utterly pointless
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Who do you think you will vote for?
 
exiledinboro said:
I see Wes Streeting the shadow health secretary is making the news after claiming under Labour the NHS will be free of charge but will be run by private corporations.
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:unsure:

exiledinboro said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1589689643347243008

You can also follow Richard Murphy on twitter who is an academic and policy writer who has been asking Streeting about what Streeting means and asks why’s can’t the model be similar to Labours model in the 90’s to simply put in more cash
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That clip says nothing of the sort. You hate Starmer's Labour, fair enough but don't make lies up - that's the way of the Tories.

exiledinboro said:
I’m not voting for them. I really have been wavering but it’s utterly pointless
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Getting the Tories out isn't pointless. It's for the good of the nation.
 
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