Would Labour have won this election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader?

Ironic that those who say they despise Corbyn [Socialism] and tell us he is history, constantly refer to him and use him as their straw man to justify the current incumbent?
You just make stuff up to validate your own rabbit hole view now don't you Saint Roofie?

Honestly find anyone who has criticised Corbyn on here and show me that they "despise" him. We can wait.

I supported Corbyn as leader and largely agreed with his policies but it remains a fact that he should have gone after he lost the vote of confidence from the PLP. You can't lead an organisation that has lost confidence in you. It's that simple. It's no good bleating about plotting against him, of course there was he was a dead man walking.
 
In the present circumstances, with almost a decade of character assassination behind him, I would say no. However, if he was a new leader facing the corrupt, incompetent greedy money grabbing criminals that were in power, then probably.

You might also ask would Starmer have won in 2017. I would have to say that using the strategy he employed in this election of saying very little and allowing the Tories to be hoist by their own petard, probably not. However, without the benefit of hindsight we will never know if he would have used that approach.
It all depends whether it's a 2 horse race or a 2 + 2 horse race too I think, there's quite a lot of permutations, when comparing that with how much time the press would have had to take Corbyn apart.

In any scenario, very early Corbyn would have beat them I think, not by the same amount mind, it depends who was helping him tactically as they never got that right.

Time was an enemy for Corbyn though, due to the press as well as himself, Corbyn onwards would have lost I think, as I think the Tories would have had a much easier ride and more stability against him.

I don't think Starmer would have won in 2017, as I don't think there would have been an election then as we would still have been in the EU with a more pro EU leader for 2015/16. I think he would have got in for the next election in 2019 or whatever I think, with us still in the EU and probably up against Cameron still.
 
because foodbanks didn't exist
The Trussell Trust opened their first UK foodbank in 2000 and were giving out 40,000 packages by 2010. The fact that Labour allowed the very poorest to fall further behind is one of the reasons those that feel left behind have gone looking for answers elsewhere. One of the main factors in the local constituencies turning blue was the perceived lack of investment/improvement under Blair/Brown.

Bit disingenuous to post in your way though as it doesn't show any detail about how many horses were in the race, voter turnout, what the oppo were doing etc, that's why it's better to use seats, and the game is seats of course.
Equally disingenuous to 'forget' that seats Corbyn had explicitly targeted in 2017 had their campaign funding diverted by Labour officials working against the party.

See above...
 
You just make stuff up to validate your own rabbit hole view now don't you Saint Roofie?

Honestly find anyone who has criticised Corbyn on here and show me that they "despise" him. We can wait.

I supported Corbyn as leader and largely agreed with his policies but it remains a fact that he should have gone after he lost the vote of confidence from the PLP. You can't lead an organisation that has lost confidence in you. It's that simple. It's no good bleating about plotting against him, of course there was he was a dead man walking.
Yeah, I've not seen anyone saying they despise him either, certainly not form any of us lot who actually voted for him twice! He seems like a nice enough bloke, of course, I think everyone agrees on that. To be honest even my old forces mates who used to share memes about him didn't seem to despise him, they were just worried about what he would/ wouldn't do.

Some things people didn't like about Corbyn, which I can't really disagree with, although to varying extents:
Poor leader
Weak
Couldn't control the party
Easy target for the press
Didn't prevent himself from being an easy target for the press
Tactically naïve
Didn't appear very pro EU, when it mattered most
Didn't appeal enough to the centre
Unconvincing with NATO and trident, use of nuclear/ nuclear deterrent etc

Then there's the other stuff which either doesn't matter or is largely untrue (I think):
"dangerous leftie"
Mates with terrorists
Antisemitic party
Looked scruffy/ dressed badly (but no different to BJ of course)
 
Equally disingenuous to 'forget' that seats Corbyn had explicitly targeted in 2017 had their campaign funding diverted by Labour officials working against the party.
I didn't forget, and I think saw you mention this earlier, but that's just your interpretation.

I don't for one second believe Corbyn had his tactics right, as he had never proven this to be the case at any other time.

The report was subject to interpretation, like on many topics the left of the party didn't want to engage with those along the lines of blair, or even those closer to the centre (which they needed to actually win). The Corbyn lot argue that these actions were deliberate attempts to sabotage his campaign (which sounds far fetched at the cost of an election), while us lot will say that resource allocation decisions are complex and driven by various strategic considerations. I don't doubt that others had a batter idea about strategy than Cobyn did, sort of like what has been proven now when Labour have been extremely efficient with votes, the most efficient of any winning party ever.

Even if funds were diverted, to undermine him, a decent leader would have spotted this, sorted the factions out and it wouldn't have been a problem. The report also mentioned that this wouldn't have made a difference anyway.

Funds were probably diverted to secure red wall seats they were worried about losing, when Corbyn was polling worse. This money will have been moved around well in advance, most likely, but Corbyn's surge came kind of late, to the point where allocating more funds to winnable seats would have been too late anyway. He was still 55 seats behind, would have needed to turn another 28 tory seats red, that's over 10% more seats than they got, it wasn't happening.
 
I don't think Starmer would have won in 2017, as I don't think there would have been an election then as we would still have been in the EU with a more pro EU leader for 2015/16. I think he would have got in for the next election in 2019 or whatever I think, with us still in the EU and probably up against Cameron still.
If Corbyn hadn't been nominated for the leadership in 2015 then the leader would have been Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper (based on their votes in 2015).

Brexit would have happened anyway - the biggest factor (in my opinion) was the people who didn't vote because they thought Remain would walk it. If, as you suggest, a more pro-EU Labour leader would have increased Remain support then this may have exacerbated that effect.

The 2017 election was May's attempt to hang onto the coat-tails of Brexit-mania and grab a quick majority against what she perceived as a weak Labour leader. Under a more centrist leader May would have gained that majority. The Corbyn factor in the 2017 election is what made the result so shocking.

I don't know if a bigger majority would have made Brexit any 'better' but it would have allowed for more decisiveness and the Tories getting what they wanted, and thereby having to own the position the UK ended up in.

There would very likely not have been a 2019 election and we'd have gone into 2022 with a more coherent Tory party. A Reform party with an axe to grind and a Burnham or Cooper led Labour party offering more centrism without having alienated the left.
 
If Corbyn hadn't been nominated for the leadership in 2015 then the leader would have been Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper (based on their votes in 2015).

Brexit would have happened anyway - the biggest factor (in my opinion) was the people who didn't vote because they thought Remain would walk it. If, as you suggest, a more pro-EU Labour leader would have increased Remain support then this may have exacerbated that effect.

The 2017 election was May's attempt to hang onto the coat-tails of Brexit-mania and grab a quick majority against what she perceived as a weak Labour leader. Under a more centrist leader May would have gained that majority. The Corbyn factor in the 2017 election is what made the result so shocking.

I don't know if a bigger majority would have made Brexit any 'better' but it would have allowed for more decisiveness and the Tories getting what they wanted, and thereby having to own the position the UK ended up in.

There would very likely not have been a 2019 election and we'd have gone into 2022 with a more coherent Tory party. A Reform party with an axe to grind and a Burnham or Cooper led Labour party offering more centrism without having alienated the left.
Yeah, I was talking hypothetically, just swapping names with times etc, like I said though too many permutations. I don't think I knew who Andy Burnham was back then (wasn't as much into it back then), but I think if people had a chance at a retrospective vote Burnham would walk it. Maybe his recent experience where he's been very visible has helped him though.

I don't think it would have, Brexit was lost in the red wall, that's Labour's watch imo, but I know a lot don't disagree. Turning 2% of voters nationally wouldn't have been that hard, and not letting 2% slip to the other side would have been even easier. You're right about remain being too complacent, I was too early days but later on I wasn't, it looked like trouble.

Yeah may took a shot and won, she didn't win by much, but still won. She practically ended up with majority anyway, or as good as.

It think Labour were too hard on Miliband in 2015, it was going to be hard to beat the Tories with Cameron first try, parties tend to get more than one term, but it was more up for grabs when that EU vote got promised.

2019 was another lock in choice for the tories, they wanted to use that time to leave the EU, take the hit, then show some signs of recovery (to con voters things were going to be ok). But, that ended up being a bit of a poisoned chalice for Tories, as they ended up with covid, energy crisis and inflation etc, those were all coming no matter who was in charge. The blow would have been softer on the working class with Labour though. In hinsight I bet the tories wish they hadn't won in 2019, as they cold have had an election in 2022 then and they would have got more of a free pass with covid etc, but the energy crisis, war, inflation and the extra few years of tory **** ups screwed them up.

Anyway, it's all done now, onwards an upwards, albeit slowly I expect.
 
The Trussell Trust opened their first UK foodbank in 2000 and were giving out 40,000 packages by 2010. The fact that Labour allowed the very poorest to fall further behind is one of the reasons those that feel left behind have gone looking for answers elsewhere. One of the main factors in the local constituencies turning blue was the perceived lack of investment/improvement under Blair/Brown.


Equally disingenuous to 'forget' that seats Corbyn had explicitly targeted in 2017 had their campaign funding diverted by Labour officials working against the party.


See above...
I stand corrected.
 
The left of the party didn't want to engage with those along the lines of blair, or even those closer to the centre (which they needed to actually win).
Wrong way round, as always. The left were trying to win an election and assumed everyone was working towards that. There's no evidence (that I've seen) to even suggest the left were in any way not engaging with other factions. They may not have agreed with them, or run with their ideas, but the engagement was there - why do you think Corbyn made sure his first cabinet had MPs from all factions?

The Corbyn lot argue that these actions were deliberate attempts to sabotage his campaign (which sounds far fetched at the cost of an election), while us lot will say that resource allocation decisions are complex and driven by various strategic considerations. I don't doubt that others had a batter idea about strategy than Cobyn did, sort of like what has been proven now when Labour have been extremely efficient with votes, the most efficient of any winning party ever.
If you wanted rid of Corbyn and you thought you had a better idea of where funding should be spent, you'd sit back and let Corbyn fail.

Moving funds into safe seats wasn't a strategy that would improve Labour's chances - as you've alluded to yourself it's exactly the opposite that has worked so well for Labour in 2024.

Even if funds were diverted, to undermine him, a decent leader would have spotted this, sorted the factions out and it wouldn't have been a problem.
A secret office was set up. It was a well organised operation to undermine the leadership. Just think what might have happened if the same energy had been put into actually winning the election.

If secretive cabals are so easy to 'sort out', why do so many succeed with coups, assassinations etc. They usually only fail when they are betrayed from within.

Funds were probably diverted to secure red wall seats they were worried about losing, when Corbyn was polling worse. This money will have been moved around well in advance, most likely, but Corbyn's surge came kind of late, to the point where allocating more funds to winnable seats would have been too late anyway. He was still 55 seats behind, would have needed to turn another 28 tory seats red, that's over 10% more seats than they got, it wasn't happening.
It doesn't matter where the funds went. It mattered where they were diverted from. As you keep saying, seats matter. But in 2017 it was Tory seats that mattered. The Tories were expected to extend their existing majority. The election ended in a hung Parliament. <3000 votes in the right places were the difference between May being able to form a government and Labour being the main player in a left-if-centre coalition.

If that funding hadn't been wasted where it wasn't needed then those 3000 votes might have materialised. I think Tom Watson was one of the MPs who had funding diverted to his campaign - he had a 9.5k majority in 2015. He'd have had a 4k majority with the same votes in 2019, ending up with 7.5k or 3500 extra votes. If that was the result of extra funding there then it's hard not to speculate on what could have been if the sabotage hadn't occurred.


I don't think it would have, Brexit was lost in the red wall, that's Labour's watch imo, but I know a lot don't disagree. Turning 2% of voters nationally wouldn't have been that hard, and not letting 2% slip to the other side would have been even easier. You're right about remain being too complacent, I was too early days but later on I wasn't, it looked like trouble.
But Brexit wasn't lost in the red wall due to Corbyn. It was lost due to the utter lack of investment and opportunity that allowed Farage et al to influence people with their fairytales.

However, if you want to blame Labour, then you have to remember that Corbyn's constituents voted Remain at about 70%. Labour MPs in the red wall didn't do enough to explain the issues with Brexit to their constituents.

Yeah may took a shot and won, she didn't win by much, but still won. She practically ended up with majority anyway, or as good as.
She lost her majority. That's a historical and mathematical fact. You can't spin it any other way.

It think Labour were too hard on Miliband in 2015, it was going to be hard to beat the Tories with Cameron first try, parties tend to get more than one term, but it was more up for grabs when that EU vote got promised.
I agree. It was the same people who went after Corbyn who did for Miliband - mainly because they'd wanted his brother to win. Again, the right of the party putting factional preference above party (and national) interests.

2019 was another lock in choice for the tories, they wanted to use that time to leave the EU, take the hit, then show some signs of recovery (to con voters things were going to be ok). But, that ended up being a bit of a poisoned chalice for Tories, as they ended up with covid, energy crisis and inflation etc, those were all coming no matter who was in charge. The blow would have been softer on the working class with Labour though. In hinsight I bet the tories wish they hadn't won in 2019, as they cold have had an election in 2022 then and they would have got more of a free pass with covid etc, but the energy crisis, war, inflation and the extra few years of tory **** ups screwed them up.
I don't follow any of this. 2019 was forced on the Tories. They didn't call the election willingly.

Anyway, it's all done now, onwards an upwards, albeit slowly I expect.
Agreed. Onwards and upwards. There's still a huge battle ahead and a lot of convincing required.
 
I voted Labour & Corbyn & Labour Starmer this time.

2017 I couldn't believe we had the choice we did: Boris or Jeremy... Boris turned out exactly as I expected.
Corbyn would have been better in many of the events we faced, imho, tho I think he'd have been found wanting on Ukrainian & maybe gone too far & 'backed', Hamas.. over just calling out Israel.

I believe Starmer to be a more competent politician, time will tell..
 
Now, Corbyn can be accused of many things, some of them perhaps true, but definitely not true is the accusation that he was or is a bigot. Nothing could be further from the truth.

If you've ever spoken to him you would realise how ridiculous that statement is.
ah… so he was kidding about his view on isreal all along .. maybe his IRA sympathy was him showing how much he loves the uk also .. in some ironic way
 
Back
Top