What do Thursday's results indicate for the election?

T

TeessideCleveland

Well-known member
Not been able to keep track too much over last few days, but just wondered what people who might be better informed or are good at predicting think?

Preferably what people think will happen whether that agrees with what they want or not

I read 2 articles last night

Sky News were saying a uniform swing of these percentages nationwide would lead to a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party

Guardian say Labour are getting the votes spread in the right places to do better than that (which Sky did acknowledge further down in their article)
 
Yes, it’s a good indication of English public sentiment. Add Scotland, where Labour will do well against SNP, and take away all those Green Party gains, at local level, as I’m sure most of those voters will vote Lab.
Also a lot of right wing Tory voters Will vote Reform in the GE
Hopefully it’s the massacre which destroys the Tory party for a generation
 
Borotommo said:
Also a lot of right wing Tory voters Will vote Reform in the GE
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I think this is the only question mark remaining. Will Reform stand against the Tories or will they do a similar deal to the one between the Tories and the Brexit party?

I think a lot depends on how the Tories react to these elections. A push right might be enough for Reform to offer an olive branch.
 
It certainly means there's a lot of discontent with Sunak within the Tory party. See Braverman's urging of him to lurch to the right today

I'm pretty sure, should Sunak somehow win the GE, he would not see out the term as PM. In the last 3 parliaments, the Tory leader has changed between elections, and they'd all started in stronger position than Sunak does.

So, who would really be PM if the Tories were to win? My fear would be that it would be someone as reckless and irresponsible with the economy as Truss was (that's who the party members felt best reflected them after all), but maybe the hard right who've drifted towards Reform would see the inevitable replacement of Sunak as a good thing and throw their weight behind the Tories again as a result.
 
It showed the conservative vote collapsing acorss the board with labour gaining a bit but main winners were independants, greens etc. At a general election there would be less of those I expect.
 
This whole hung Parliament nonsense is all about trying to control the narrative. The Tories are still in there.

It's rubbish. Labour will walk the next election, they've smashed the Tories in the locals 2 years in a row.

The by-elections are all 20 percent plus swings. They've lost the relatively safe West Midlands mayoralty. They're done, broken, beaten.

It's no secret I'm a staunch Labour man, but I'm not an apologist. I know the strengths and weaknesses. I'll always push the agenda for those who can't push it themselves. We need to support the vulnerable people in society and we need to flush this Tory driven culture war sh*t down the toilet where it belongs.

A change is coming and we all need it.
 
I’ve no idea what it all means but my constituency in north west Cambs will still vote Tory. Shaliesh Vara. Boris apologist and utter Cnut
 
It’s a nonsense, the locals are by no way comparable to a GE. Eg Not a chance there ends up 80+ independent MPs.
 
I seriously hate this Michael Thrasher nonsense that gets wheeled out every local election, as he himself, knows its a load of b***ks.

They are also comparing it to what happened before the Blair landslide as to show Labour are somehow, miles behind. The two eras are nothing alike, it's comparing apples with breeze blocks.

The media are scared of a Tory wipeout, their client journalists will lose their paycheck.
 
I saw a study this week pre Thursday's elections. Was predicting a significant Labour majority at GE.
The second point was about policies, and basically said whoever wins has no room for manoeuvre because the cupboard is bare and there's no spare money to implement policy changes. The conclusion from that was the only solution was tax rises, and as there's always a desire to get bad news out of the way early on in an election cycle they would be significant, but not before March 2025.
The third major point was that if the Labour majority is as much as some are predicting then Stamer is a dead man walking and will be ousted in 6-12 months to be replaced by someone significantly further to the left.
 
The Times are saying they've now shelved plans for a summer election, so presumably things were worse than the Tories were expecting.

Gutted we have to suffer another half of year of these d***heads.
 
Local elections just reflect the poll lead Labour have. It doesn't tell us anything new.

Labour will have a sizeable majority after the ge with the tories on 120 seats or there abouts.
 
I'm not getting the media spin at all.

Prior to Thursday, Labour were steady in the polls at 44-48 ish. Tories hovering 17-20. Everything looking towards a Labour landslide around 450 MPs.

Friday morning, absolute trouncing for the Tories including a massive swing to Labour in the Blackpool South by-election.

Think Sky started it with "Labour won't have enough for a majority, looking like a coalition incoming" Huh?? 😳😳

Worst case of client journalism? Tories have now picked up on this and are actively using this coalition bollox as a scare tactic.... basically Labour + an SNP, Lib Dem, Green coalition will take your money, first born and you will have asylum seekers living next door to you on £70k year, tax free. With an iPhone and big Tele.

Going to be a proper dirty, lie ridden run in to the GE.
 
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RedAsABeetroot said:
The third major point was that if the Labour majority is as much as some are predicting then Stamer is a dead man walking and will be ousted in 6-12 months to be replaced by someone significantly further to the left.
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I read something similar, and it suggested Sadiq Khan as Starmer's replacement.
 
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