Villa have competition for Rogers

It’s in our interest to turn it into an auction if we’re going to sell him. We may as well try and get some desperate American venture capitalist to give us an extra £9m at the eleventh hour. And the thing about Chelsea watching him, or being interested in him, of course they are. They have a vast, multi-million pound global scouting network and keep tabs on thousands of players. They will be watching and monitoring every promising player under the age of 23.
 
1finny said:
Love your optimism there - I’m minded to think the cycles are getting longer and longer
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they are, but I think we bottomed out a couple of years ago, we were the bit of tire rubbing against the road, now slowly making our way upwards. If we continue as we are, we will go up in the next 2 or 3 years.
 
InglebyUTB said:
The money is useless to us with 2 days to spend it, it doesn’t matter how highly you rate Scott he’s not a miracle worker.
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It's not as if the money turns into straw the second the transfer window closes.

While I agree we have not received close to an acceptable bid yet, I have no problem with sitting on the cash until the Summer.

We may have a slim chance of making the playoffs this season, with an even slimmer chance of going up if we make them, if we spend the money now. For me, that chance is too small to make it worth chasing hard. Smarter to stick to invest in the longer term.
 
Frozen Horse said:
It's not as if the money turns into straw the second the transfer window closes.

While I agree we have not received close to an acceptable bid yet, I have no problem with sitting on the cash until the Summer.

We may have a slim chance of making the playoffs this season, with an even slimmer chance of going up if we make them, if we spend the money now. For me, that chance is too small to make it worth chasing hard. Smarter to stick to invest in the longer term.
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I disagree about us having a slim chance of making the play offs. We had a horrendous start and have been going through a terrible injury crisis. We are one good striker away from being a very good team and could quite easily go on a winning run that will put us firmly in the play off picture. It's not like we're 12 points off the play offs. We need players back and to go on a good run, like we have under Carrick a few times before. That's all easier said than done, but I'm sure Carrick, Gibson, Scott and Bausor aren't thinking like that.
 
BoroMart said:
they are, but I think we bottomed out a couple of years ago, we were the bit of tire rubbing against the road, now slowly making our way upwards. If we continue as we are, we will go up in the next 2 or 3 years.
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I tend to agree, if we keep hold of Carrick, or manage to get the next appointment right after MC leaves then I think we will hit a patch where we have far fewer injures than this season and also the league isn't as difficult. This could be next season with maybe Burnley, Luton, sheff u replacing Leicester, Southampton and Leeds.
 
The other thing to keep in mind is the relationship between Rogers and the club. We don't need to sell anyone this window* and don't want to sell Rogers. Clearly he would like to move to Villa so there needs to be careful handling. We could say that he's not up for sale under any circumstances and tell Rogers that we would be open to a sale in the summer if we don't get promoted. Sounds like that's what Sunderland have done with Jack Clarke but you can end up with disaffected player if they feel they have missed out.

I presume we have told Rogers that we've set a price for him. If Villa really want him then they can pay the price in which case we'll let Rogers make the decision. There are good reasons for Rogers to stay and play from his point of view because he's improving fast and is likely to be a mainstay of the team. That way he may attract a better offer in the summer. I suspect that Rogers would go anyway but there are factors that might make it worthwhile for him to stay.

So far, we seem to have handled this pretty well and Rogers, to be fair, seems to be doing the same.

*We have sold enough players in this season to balance our FFP debt. We will need to sell players in the summer, probably about another £10m worth in order to balance that year but selling Rogers this year isn't, from a financial point of view, all that useful.
 
uncle_rico said:
I disagree about us having a slim chance of making the play offs. We had a horrendous start and have been going through a terrible injury crisis. We are one good striker away from being a very good team and could quite easily go on a winning run that will put us firmly in the play off picture. It's not like we're 12 points off the play offs. We need players back and to go on a good run, like we have under Carrick a few times before. That's all easier said than done, but I'm sure Carrick, Gibson, Scott and Bausor aren't thinking like that.
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I think it's 2 from 7 for the last 2 play off spots which, if it were random, gives us a 28% chance of making it. Except we're currently 7th of those 7 clubs: they all have a bit of head start, which has got to reduce that chance further. They've all got their ifs and buts too.

Even if we get 6th, well past evidence suggests you have about a 7% chance of being promoted (20% if you make 5th). So, a slim chance of a slim chance; maybe a 2-3% chance of promotion from this position if we go for it.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think it's 2 from 7 for the last 2 play off spots which, if it were random, gives us a 28% chance of making it. Except we're currently 7th of those 7 clubs: they all have a bit of head start, which has got to reduce that chance further. They've all got their ifs and buts too.

Even if we get 6th, well past evidence suggests you have about a 7% chance of being promoted (20% if you make 5th). So, a slim chance of a slim chance; maybe a 2-3% chance of promotion from this position if we go for it.
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A fair assessment I think, the reality is that this season its going to be a big ask to finish top 6, never mind prevail through the play-offs.

I see a few of the teams around us being stronger than us too.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think it's 2 from 7 for the last 2 play off spots which, if it were random, gives us a 28% chance of making it. Except we're currently 7th of those 7 clubs: they all have a bit of head start, which has got to reduce that chance further. They've all got their ifs and buts too.

Even if we get 6th, well past evidence suggests you have about a 7% chance of being promoted (20% if you make 5th). So, a slim chance of a slim chance; maybe a 2-3% chance of promotion from this position if we go for it.
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I'd give us a bit more than a 3% chance from here.

We only took about 2 points from our first 7 games i think and have had our most injury hit season ever.

If we do claw our way into the playoffs then i think we would be second favourite behind leeds/southampton, whichever of those 2 don't finish second.
 
Well, I think we have to not think of the playoffs as the final goal: making the playoffs counts for very little if you don't actually get promoted.

This seems to be a season where the 3rd and 4th placed teams are substantially better than those in the race for 5th and 6th, so I don't really expect the chances for 5th and 6th placed teams improving any this year.

Anything can happen in the playoffs, ok, but the better teams usually win, and those are the ones finishing 3rd and 4th.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
I'd give us a bit more than a 3% chance from here.

We only took about 2 points from our first 7 games i think and have had our most injury hit season ever.

If we do claw our way into the playoffs then i think we would be second favourite behind leeds/southampton, whichever of those 2 don't finish second.
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You'd put us ahead of Ipswich? A team nearly 20 points ahead of us?

I think we'd go in 3rd favourites at best and I think, so far at least, Coventry and WBA look stronger than us.

I'm not sure what the stats are around 5th and 6th placed teams going up, but I know the odds over the years are very low.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
We only took about 2 points from our first 7 games i think and have had our most injury hit season ever.
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I think everyone has had injuries, and every set of fans are telling themselves they'd be higher if it wasn't for their bad patches. Ok, start of the season is a little different as players bed in, but disappointing results haven't vanished: see 1 point from 2 games Vs Rotherham.
 
Frozen Horse said:
I think it's 2 from 7 for the last 2 play off spots which, if it were random, gives us a 28% chance of making it. Except we're currently 7th of those 7 clubs: they all have a bit of head start, which has got to reduce that chance further. They've all got their ifs and buts too.
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agree on the "if even", not sure I entirely agree that the 1-3 points behind the others is going to reduce it too much. I'd add in that effectively we have massively added to our squad since the first half of the season, Azaz, Ayling and Thomas are all excellent signings, but we've really got O'Brien, Forss, and McGree back after barely featuring in the first half a season.

Any club that signed Azaz, Ayling, Thomas, O'Brien, Forss and McGree would be seen to be massively strengthened and a real danger side for the second half of the season and of course we might not be done yet.
 
BoroMart said:
agree on the "if even", not sure I entirely agree that the 1-3 points behind the others is going to reduce it too much.
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We can surely agree that it doesn't improve out chances? And WBA's 5 point lead probably does make a bit of difference in catching them?

What makes a difference to me is that we have to overtake 5 teams to make it. Let's say Coventry, for example, fall apart and we over take them. That's great, makes our job easier, but even if that happens, we still have Hull, Norwich, and Watford to overtake. Making up a 1-2 point difference over 1 team is far easier than making it up on all 5 teams. At least one of them will win every week.

So, I still think lower than 28%; I'd say about 20% just to make the playoffs, but that's pure speculation on my part
 
Coventry play Bristol City tonight, could make things interesting if they drop points as we'd have a game in hand, especially when they play Norwich on Saturday and we play Sunderland on Sunday.

3 are above us, Bristol City are just below us.
 
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Frozen Horse said:
I think everyone has had injuries, and every set of fans are telling themselves they'd be higher if it wasn't for their bad patches. Ok, start of the season is a little different as players bed in, but disappointing results haven't vanished: see 1 point from 2 games Vs Rotherham.
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The first game was an absolute freak result, second was a bad da. All sides have them. Of course every team has had injuries, but not every team has 12 players out at the same time, and not always the same players. 28 games in and only 2 outfield players have played 22 or more matches.

Total number of players starting a league game:
West Brom 21
Coventry 22
Sunderland 22
Hull 22
Watford 22
Norwich 26
Boro 26


Number of players with 23+ league starts
Norwich 7
Sunderland 7
Hull 5
West Brom 4
Coventry 2
Watford 1
Boro 1


From5th-to midtable, we are the only team that have had the double disruption of most players starting a match and and fewest players being fit and available all season. It's undeniable that we've had a shocking injury situation, beyond what our main rivals have endured. Norwich have obviously had issues with key positions, but have kept their core team of 7 on the pitch, watford have had lots of chopping and changing but have not been down to the bare bones at any point. We have had lots of injuries AND been down to the bare bones at the same time for a prolonged period.
 
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