Ukraine - invasion underway

[Angus]

It is a charade — from all sides of the EU and the US. Why did Schroeder and Merkel ever want to trust someone like Putin to deliver gas reserves on a pipeline bought and paid for by US tax payer money? It’s one of the most foolhardy agreements ever written.

You really do live in a strange world.

 

[Fat_Dragon]

So this is their idea of a peacekeeping mission.

 

[SmallTown]

I hate repeating myself but he’s not universally loved. His approval rating conducted within Russia by the Levada center is usually in the 60s and on an overall downward trend, with approval of the government and its activities regularly under 50, hence why the opposition was so brutally dealt with - Navalny is in prison and there’s no one else taking any viable stand.

His rating here in Moscow will be lower and I’ll be watching where I go in the city as I don’t want to be anywhere near protests. He’s been losing support in the regions for a long time.

He has little support in Ukraine, outside the separatist leaders I doubt there has ever been much appetite for war. Crimea would probably have joined Russia if some kind of free and fair referendum was undertaken, it doesn’t mean they love Putin.

This might help though surely? Leaders usually use a war to boost their popularity.

Galtieri and Thatcher even created one to try and stay in power.

 

[Smoggle]

You really do live in a strange world.

I do think the decision to rely on Russia for a significant part of European energy security was at best misguided. It’s lead to the EU being divided on how to deal with Russia for years.

 

[Cardiffdaffs]

This might help though surely? Leaders usually use a war to boost their popularity.

Galtieri and Thatcher even created one to try and stay in power.

Johnson will be continuing with his war rhetoric for as while longer whilst having a vodka or two with his Russian donors.

 

[Mwelolo]

I am sure this phase won’t take long.

 

[Smoggle]

This might help though surely? Leaders usually use a war to boost their popularity.

Galtieri and Thatcher even created one to try and stay in power.

We’ll see, he definitely got a boost from Crimea, but the situation was different as it was largely without bloodshed and it could be spun as righting a historic wrong.

Russians see Ukrainians as a brotherly people even if it’s not always a view completely shared in return due to often being on the receiving end of Moscow’s ‘benevolence’. The last war in the Donbas didn’t play as well - there were grieving mothers protesting in Moscow and the same situation is likely if the body bags start returning in large numbers. Younger people also don’t completely swallow the state controlled media narratives due to getting news online.

 

[uncle_rico]

it just has been allowed

It’s been going on in Southern Ukraine for the last 7 or 8 years

 

[BiggEggo]

The best that Ukraine and the west can hope for is that a parent of a KIA Russian soldier puts a bullet through his head.

I hope Ukraine send tens of thousands of body bags back to Moscow and then see how his popularity fairs.

West is divided and weak. Sanctions won't change a thing.

Johnson should do one thing today, take RT channel off air - forever. Like a modern day Lord Ha-Ha for too long.

 

[Jedi boro]

The real issue is the long term goals, it’s clear from his isolation and his actions that Putin has gone full Howard hughes over the virus and again this week in his big address no one was allowed anywhere near him.

His mental state is clearly an issue as he seems to be carrying out his lifelong ambitions ( namely re writing the borders of the Cold War) regardless of the international cost to his or Russia’s reputation so you have to wonder why now why act now.

 

[Smoggle]

so you have to wonder why now why act now.

From what I’ve heard, Putin is fond of the symbolic (if that’s the correct term) - it’s the centenary year of the creation of the Soviet Union and yesterday was ‘Defenders of the Fatherland’ day - similar to our fathers day but with a military twist. The fireworks display’s were massive last night (they usually are anyway tbf) and visible from all over the city, very bombastic.

 

[Paintolerance]

This may well be over more quickly than anyone anticipated, at least in terms of regime change.

 

[coluka]

The real issue is the long term goals, it’s clear from his isolation and his actions that Putin has gone full Howard hughes over the virus and again this week in his big address no one was allowed anywhere near him.

His mental state is clearly an issue as he seems to be carrying out his lifelong ambitions ( namely re writing the borders of the Cold War) regardless of the international cost to his or Russia’s reputation so you have to wonder why now why act now.

He has been planning this since Crimea 2014. He has built up his forces and economy. He knew sanctions would come and has built this in to his planning. He is not a mad man, he is a dangerous man that does not care about anyone but himself and his ego. His pact with China means he can put everything into his ‘legacy’.

 

[Steve8778]

Let's put the cat truly among the pigeons, accept Ukraine into NATO.

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

Ok Putin is a thug but trying telling that to the people of Russia and Crimea — they love him. He has plenty of support in Ukraine also. There’s plenty in Ukraine who believe all this is the making of Biden.

Strange how you leapt
from Obama to Biden?

The sanctions were weak because of the relationship between the most wealthy (and powerful) across the globe. It's more like 1914 than the 30's, there's no political philosophy steering Putin, he's right wing and attacking a broadly right wing nation.

It's all about pushing NATO back and Russia are backed by China on this. The Chinese an enormous market for Russian natural resources.

Taiwan next?

 

[billsykes]

From what I’ve heard, Putin is fond of the symbolic (if that’s the correct term) - it’s the centenary year of the creation of the Soviet Union and yesterday was ‘Defenders of the Fatherland’ day - similar to our fathers day but with a military twist. The fireworks display’s were massive last night (they usually are anyway tbf) and visible from all over the city, very bombastic.

Personal question.
I would expect the west to ramp up sanctions, as time goes by how safe will you be out there.

 

[Jedi boro]

Let's put the cat truly among the pigeons, accept Ukraine into NATO.

We can’t as one of NATO’s conditions to acceptance is that a country has control of if it borders

 

[Anton_Berg]

A cold war is the best we can hope for. Then presumably, back to Partygate

 

[Jedi boro]

To join NATO, countries must first be offered a membership action plan, a formal invitation and a tailored road map for future NATO membership. To obtain such a plan, prospective new members must first peacefully resolve outstanding international, ethnic and territorial disputes.

 

[Steve8778]

We can’t as one of NATO’s conditions to acceptance is that a country has control of if it borders

Yes it's a shame about that but I'm sure it could be put through if members voted for it as long as Ukraine agree to 2% GDP. Russia needs dealing with and fast.