Time for a second lockdown?

Evil said:
When you adjust the figures based on the increased testing, the case rate is down.

I hate sensationalism.
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Only if you can prove that they are false positives

you can’t say with certainty that cases aren’t going up. If it’s mainly picking up asymptomatic cases it may hold some credence.

It’s also feasible more people are getting tested that just don’t have it.
 
GazC_MFC said:
Covid 3-4% is nonsense, that’s on confirmed cases. It’s been proven more people have had the virus than have been diagnosed

it’s still higher than flu mind
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If you would be so kind to navigate to the link I provided laughing it has an extensive list of studies regarding the mortality rate it may be of interest to you. 👍🏻

It's not boiling in the house today so I'm feeling very chilled and relaxed. 🤣
 
Alvez_48 said:
Please navigate your browser over here good sir:-

https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/
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Cheers Alvez, one thing I did notice from the data shown was that the later the report the higher the IFR, though to be fair it was a tiny sample.

So the European study of July 28 has an IFR of between 0.5 and 1.4. Earlier studies in France and England have 0.7 and 0.08 respectively. The studies were published in May. I would have expected the IFR to come down as more testing was being done.

In any case there is a fair bit of supposition going on around the actual number of infections, not a lot else you can do with that I suppose, clearly more people are infected than are tested.
 
Laughing said:
Cheers Alvez, one thing I did notice from the data shown was that the later the report the higher the IFR, though to be fair it was a tiny sample.

So the European study of July 28 has an IFR of between 0.5 and 1.4. Earlier studies in France and England have 0.7 and 0.08 respectively. The studies were published in May. I would have expected the IFR to come down as more testing was being done.

In any case there is a fair bit of supposition going on around the actual number of infections, not a lot else you can do with that I suppose, clearly more people are infected than are tested.
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The latest Imperial antibody testing is coming up woth 6% infection rate, with differences across the country (13% in London). 30% of those found positive had been asymptomatic. These figures are similar to those reported by the ONS on two occasions. So deaths are about 1.5% of infections based on those figures.

Link
 
bear66 said:
The latest Imperial antibody testing is coming up woth 6% infection rate, with differences acrossthe country (13% in London). These figures are similar to those reported by the ONS on two occasions.
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I think that's a low estimate as the anti body tests are absolutely terrible, also if you add in t cell responders it shows close to 'herd immunity'. You have also the secondary 'good news' that it's non vulnerable people being found positive so no increase in death or hospitalisations so basically to lockdown again would be bonkers.

I know you are a lockdown forever kinda guy and hey that's cool, crack on with that whilst we try to rebuild the UK economy.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I think that's a low estimate as the anti body tests are absolutely terrible, also if you add in t cell responders it shows close to 'herd immunity'. You have also the secondary 'good news' that it's non vulnerable people being found positive so no increase in death or hospitalisations so basically to lockdown again would be bonkers.

I know you are a lockdown forever kinda guy and hey that's cool, crack on with that whilst we try to rebuild the UK economy.
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Have a listen to the R4 Today person as she had both those questions put to her. The test is not accurate and you couldn't use it for 1 person, but you can make sense of the results from 100,000 people where results can be adjusted globally for inaccuracy. This doesn't unfortunately mean those 6% are immune or those that are will have continued immunity.

The Oxford vaccine excites both antibody responses and T-cell lymphocytes as well, so hopefully bot bases covered.
 
bear66 said:
Have a listen to the R4 Today person as she had both those questions put to her. The test is not accurate and you couldn't use it for 1 person, but you can make sense of the results from 100,000 people where results can be adjusted globally for inaccuracy. This doesn't unfortunately mean those 6% are immune or those that are will have continued immunity.

The Oxford vaccine excites both antibody responses and T-cell lymphocytes as well, so hopefully bot bases covered.
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Not a single case of reinfection has occured in nearly 12 months my friend so continued immunity is surely a given.

You get that vaccine though.. think I'll give it a pass for a while, let those in the older age groups get it to help them. 😉
 
I still think that this lockdown was to allow a bit of breathing space to get these Nightingale Hospitals up and running.
The government runs to suit which way the wind is blowing in current polling figures, not whats the right thing for the country - all I think they want is to be able to say is 'we have enough beds available for any second wave. We have done our job'.
1000s will die but at least they'll have an effing bed to do it in.
The track and trace shambles ; tefal-head insulting the entire country's intelligence with his lies about his little jolly to durham; Covid contracts given to companies(without any competing bids) with absolutely no experience in healthcare but happen to have a tory funder on their board. This Gov is bent
 
hewielewie said:
Not worry about the cases. Worry when 111 triages rise
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Won't that be too late? Given there is a lag between when cases are identified and when hospitalisations and deaths occur?

I sort of agree with you, if deaths don't rise then we don't need to worry about the cases. The issue is, if they do, it'll be too late.
 
MoggasDog said:
I still think that this lockdown was to allow a bit of breathing space to get these Nightingale Hospitals up and running.
The government runs to suit which way the wind is blowing in current polling figures, not whats the right thing for the country - all I think they want is to be able to say is 'we have enough beds available for any second wave. We have done our job'.
1000s will die but at least they'll have an effing bed to do it in.
The track and trace shambles ; tefal-head insulting the entire country's intelligence with his lies about his little jolly to durham; Covid contracts given to companies(without any competing bids) with absolutely no experience in healthcare but happen to have a tory funder on their board. This Gov is bent
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App mark 2 ready to go
Link
 
SmallTown said:
Won't that be too late? Given there is a lag between when cases are identified and when hospitalisations and deaths occur?

I sort of agree with you, if deaths don't rise then we don't need to worry about the cases. The issue is, if they do, it'll be too late.
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I think treatment is more effective now. My cousin passed away with it on Easter Sunday and all they were doing for him was turn him on his front. Now they know a lot more about the virus
 
It's all very confusing.
Some saying lockdown must come back. Others it's the worst thing possible.
Some saying just apply it to the vulnerable. Others saying it should be everyone.
You can go on holiday but we don't know for sure where.
I just want to enjoy life in a way that won't hurt anyone.
 
Alvez_48 said:
If you would be so kind to navigate to the link I provided laughing it has an extensive list of studies regarding the mortality rate it may be of interest to you. 👍🏻

It's not boiling in the house today so I'm feeling very chilled and relaxed. 🤣
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Ye that’s still confirms covid being more deadly at around 0.35 right? With flu at 0.1 it makes covid more deadly.
 
SmallTown said:
Won't that be too late? Given there is a lag between when cases are identified and when hospitalisations and deaths occur?

I sort of agree with you, if deaths don't rise then we don't need to worry about the cases. The issue is, if they do, it'll be too late.
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11 triage is showing symptoms not necessarily being hospitalised
 
GazC_MFC said:
Ye that’s still confirms covid being more deadly at around 0.35 right? With flu at 0.1 it makes covid more deadly.
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Isn't that like saying the chance of being hit by a bus , in other words if you're that unlucky to have this happen to you Flu = SIngle Decker & Covid19 = Double Decker
 
GazC_MFC said:
Ye that’s still confirms covid being more deadly at around 0.35 right? With flu at 0.1 it makes covid more deadly.
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Well flu has a wide range of IFRs so a bad season is around 0.3-0.5% but regardless even if it is it's massively disproportionate to lockdown the nation for that mortality rate, I think we actually agree on that.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Well flu has a wide range of IFRs so a bad season is around 0.3-0.5% but regardless even if it is it's massively disproportionate to lockdown the nation for that mortality rate, I think we actually agree on that.
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I agree on that, I don’t think a second lockdown in necessary.
 
GazC_MFC said:
Ye that’s still confirms covid being more deadly at around 0.35 right? With flu at 0.1 it makes covid more deadly.
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When measuring the effects of the disease a risk based approach would be to measure the likelihood of the event occurring by the severity.
Therefore you need to take the likelihood of catching the disease multiplied by the likelihood of dying from the disease.
Taking the death rate in isolation can miss the speed the illness spreads in the population.
 
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