Here are the algorithms predictions for the championship games this week. After last weeks 4 from 6, I am hoping for 2 from 3 today as Boro are predicted to loose to Forest today.
The picks are Blackburn, Huddersfield and Forest to win. All games are predicted below 2.5 goals. The PHI correlation for the Forest win is very low, .35 but quite a high correllation for under 2.5 goals at 0.54. I would expect it to be corrrect on the number of goals, but I am hopeful that it is wrong about the forest win. I am going 1-1, and would be happy with that.
Some more stats for you:
Boro over 2.5 goals this season has only happened 25% of the time, very low, compared to a league average of 51.8%
Forest over 2.5 goals higher at 52.17%, slightly higher than average.
Boro score, on average 1.09 goals a game, and concede exactly 1
Forest score 1.39 goals per game and concede 1.09 goals per game.
In the last 8 games, boro have notched an average of 1 goal per game, and conceded 1 per game. This doesn't represent an improvement over the seasons totals, but it is against slightly better opposition, including both west brom and bournemouth in those 8 games.
In the same 8 games forest have notched 1.625 goals a game and conceded a whopping 0.5 goals per game.
Boro are more likely to score first, usually scoring, on averrage in the 36th minute, with forest, on averrage taking 43 minutes to score.
Of course, one thing my algorithm doesn't know, is that Djed Spence is unavailable today, which will disrupt Forest, and possibly open up an area of the pitch for our wing backs to exploit.
Defensively, boro have, statistically got no better under Wilderr, which was a surprise to me, as we have looked more solid.
Looking purely at the stats I can see why the algorithm has a slight preference for Forest, and that my rr key is stuck on repeat sometimes.
With such a low Phi Corellation my algorithm is only correct about 52% of the time, so plenty to be hopeful about.
On the under 2.5 goals with that Phi correllation, the algorithm is correct 77.8% of the time.
