The end?

Updates

"Over the last 48 hours there have been numerous longrange strikes inside Russian territory using both drones and missiles.
The largest target was the Krasnogorsk Refinery that was hit by a "something" of a slightly more powerful nature.
Crimea was hit by a mix of 36 drones and missiles hitting all bases, including Feodosia.

Also the deep rear inside of the occupied areas was hit more than 100 times trying to take out command posts, bridges, munitions dumps, troop concentrations, fueling convoys, etcetera.
The Russian sources state that this is unfair, stupid me thought that war was supposed to be unfair.
And the best part, they complain that we are using the weather unfairly against them, I will return to this.

Luhansk
There has been a few small gains here along the entire line.
This has been brought on by missing Russians, or weakened Russian units caving from the pressure and lack of reinforcements.
I repeat, the gains are small, but put together it was a few square kilometres that is now liberated in about 24 hours, and it was done without really trying.
Zyrskiy is not about to do anything big, he is trying to conserve shells and resources as much as he can, but if he get a totally free parcel of land he is taking it.

Bakhmut
On the southern side a couple of small parcels fell into Ukrainian hands for the same reason.

Avdivka North
The Russians have now placed reinforcements here.
On the frontline of the bulge there are 3 brigades, with another 3 armoured brigades right behind them, and then two more armoured brigades waiting for some free land closer to the action.

They are now using those units for more forceful attacks using more equipment.
But, that artillery I placed out is now paying in aces and spades, it is basically turkey shooting on Russian armour that waddle around saying gobbledigook on the fields.
In 24 hours they lost all equipment in the attacks and sustained about 50 percent losses among the infantry per wave, so 250ish per wave in WIA and KIA.
They did 4 such attacks in 24 hours, we lost 1 soldier in that time due to a traffic accident and had 8 wounded (3 in the accident).

Those 3000 extra shells per day from the West, plus the internally reallocated shells is making a HUGE difference.
Germany stepped up and filled up so we got the promised 100K extra shells, enough for us to have 30 uncramped days.
And the Germans truly went "Achtung Autobahn", ripped the regulators out of the trucks, stuck police cars infront and drove like... well... Germans.

Kind of a scary concept seeing a very long convoy coming at 150km/h filled to the brim with shells and explosives.
But, it was a god send for us.
Unlike the Russians we made 100 small munition dumps in the deep rear and stuck a couple of local guardsmen at each.
I could have kissed those truckers.

Avdivka Center
For some reason the Russians think that two Brigades is enough here, it is sort of an invitation, so we have been busy firing upon those two and we are doing constant probing attack now to see if we can push in another wedge towards Pisky.

Avdivka South
The Russians have now 4 brigades here holding the line, 4 armoured brigades behind that, and a further 5 in the rear.
But, so far no uptick in attacks here, they are still doing 150 men with 1 or 2 armoured vehicles.

We now have lots of artillery ready for their upcoming larger attacks, so those little probes are rapidly flattened each time.
At the same time we are using artillery and those 1500 new heavy FPV multi-target abled drones to hunt them around in the salient.
For those in the rear we are now using GMLRS and in the deep rear the GLSDBs are doing a number on them.

And still more brigades are arriving, they are basically now having parking issues and are now 4 rows deep, and starting a fifth row.

We will definitely need those shells, and then some probably.
I will return to the "then some" later.

Vuhledarish to Tokmakish
There have been a few small parcels taken here to due to missing Russians, but we try to avoid those areas that are not sticking out to not create problems later on.

Tokmak
Oleksandr also got some shells extra, and is using them to push once more in the Verbove direction, and towards Kopani (as per usual).
It is moving forward slowly but steadily since he is conserving resources.
The Russians are complaining a lot about of the volume of artillery, and are very jealous.
The fire ratio is about 1 to 5 here in favour of Ukraine, the Russians are not happy about it at all.

Kherson
Half of Krynky is now officially Blue.
In reality Ukraine is now pushing back the Russians along the entire line as new forces are moving across.
This was aided by weather, due to wind, rain intermixed with a few fog banks Ukraine could use large barges to push over troops at an increased rate.

This was the point when a Russian colonel wrote back home to state that the Ukrainian army is using the weather in an unfair way in their advantage.
Russian MOD was not impressed by this statement.
It did though give us quite a bit to giggle about today.

This means that a third Brigade is now moving across with somewhat more heavy equipment, still not the heavy stuff, but armoured vehicles and some light artillery than can be dragged around.
Also a few medium-class air defence systems have crossed over.

At the going average rate the Ukrainian forces here will be on parity with the Russian forces in about 2 weeks, but the rate of crossings will pick up over that time.
Sometime after that Ukraine will have more soldiers in Kherson than Russia.
All of it enabled by Russia and their newfound "kink" for Avdivka.
They are sort of giving away things now.

Danes
Denmark have somehow created a small miracle and have put together a whopper of a weapons package, and hinted at this being the new norm.

First they seem to have used their Diplomatic prowess quite wisely, something that we used to be good at...
This has led to them purchasing somehow T-72s in Africa behind everyones back, they are though refusing to say who sold them.
Kenya is sort of suspected though.
Then somehow they got those back to Denmark and serviced them and upgraded the **** out of them.

A first batch of 30 is now ready for delivery.
With those are 15 serviced and upgraded Leo 1s.
And on top of that they also found, serviced and upgraded 45 BMPs.

And to be really annoying Danes they have somehow gotten a 155mm shell factory built and started without telling anyone. This will increase shell allowance at around Christmas with 500 shells per day.

And... to just take being annoying to a new height they have also bought up 30 000 shells from India.
Shells that we produced orginally.
Meh, it is irritating when Danes get hold of our own shell and use them to one up us. :)

So, we are getting an additional 30K shells in a few days, giving us another 10 days at full swing of extra shells.
I tried to get Tank Girl on my side in regards of annoying Danes, but she just scratched my beard and said I am silly...
Sigh...

Statistics
Russia has now lost more equipment in Avdivka than they have lost in Vuhledar and Bakhmut combined.
Being at such an artillery disadvantage is truly cramping the "Russian style".

Yesterday I compared this to the Battle of Kursk.
The reason that Russia won that battle was that they had a 20 to 1 advantage in artillery.
This time it is Russia that's facing that uphill in artillery, yes the figure is 5:1, but then we have the precission advantage on top of that, and the reach advantage, plus the drone advantage.

And thanks to the herculean efforts of our allies we are getting more and more top notch stuff each day.
Whereas Russia is partying over a single train with old Russian M-30 wheeled 122mm howitzer's donated by North Korea.
Those where introduced in 1938...
Yes, they did a piece on TV about how fabulous it is, a bet a lot of old veterans in Russia laughed themselved to death over seeing them again...

What I am getting at is that we are seeing more and more old **** equipment, some from the WWII and older.
Among those that we have taken custody of is a functioning lend-lease Ford half-ton truck donated by the US to the Soviet Union for use against nazi-germany.
When I saw that one my jaw dropped, and I am trying to get them to donate it to the Arsenalen Armour Museum outside of Stockholm.
The Russians are now using those to deliver troops to the frontline, and a couple of enterprising Ukrainians snuck up to an abandoned one at night and nicked it just for funzies.

I swear that by summer the Tzar Tank will come lumbering at the Ukrainians.
It will probably be very effective since the Ukrainians will be laughing so hard that they forget to blow it up.
It is though sort of an interesting concept.
Tsar Tank - Wikipedia

Fun part, they built a functioning replica later on, so sooner or later that one will come lumbering.
Replica at Kubinka Tank Museum attached.
Fun fact, half of Kubinka Museum has by now been sent to the front."
 
Glimmers of light in the dark. I know we've been here before with Lavrov last autumn.... but it's something

"It began yesterday by the statement from Lukashenko that Belarus and Russia had gotten stuck in a stalemate in the war and that a negotiated settlement is needed.

Obviously that is partially bullhork, Russia is now losing the war, and things have gone spectacularly bad for them in Avdivka, and they are losing ground in Kherson at a good pace.
And to top that off, we are making their entire frontline buckle without even trying now.

To top that off the Russian industry, power grid, and fuel infrastructure is being bombed on a daily basis all over Russia.
And then we have the not so small fact that Russia has lost control of at least 4 different republics...
Heck, 1 republic is actually being invaded just for the trolling factor of it (Bilhorod).

That Uncle Luka would see this a mile away is obvious, he is a piece of ****, but he does have a working brain.
Secondly, he would not have said that without having backing back home in Moscow.

Also, the Russian mobilisation and drafting have gone spectacularly bad.
We believe that they have reached somewhere between 10 and 25 percent of the numbers that they wished for both, both on conscripted younglings and mobiks.
It has gone so bad that they are now having to turn away mobiks and conscripts from the prisons "for a later date" since the Russian gulags are full.

Also, in the real world where pundits and propagandists are not, the Russian defence industry has spectacularly failed on delivering the needed wartime goals due to corruption, resistance movement bombings, lack of components, sanctions, and general Ukrainian bombings.
As the Russian production figures given has risen into phantasmagoric heights, reality have sunk like a stone.

Moscow
I should have perhaps written Shoigu instead of Moscow.
But heck, we spend hundreds of millions, if not billions, of your favourite currency on knowing who is running the show in Moscow and failing...
In other words, we do not even know if Putin is alive, who is running things really, nor if there are two braincells still in the entire place.
All we know is that Moscow is about as confused about who is leading the place as we are.

Back to Shoigu, he rapidly parroted the talking points that Uncle Luka had given.
And having the Defence Minister of a country stating this:
"Moscow is ready for negotiations on "post-conflict resolution of the crisis in Ukraine" and on further "coexistence" with the West".

We are fairly certain that Shoigu is really the Defence Minister, what we are not sure about is who is pulling his strings.
But if Shoigu is stating this on the back of Uncle Luka, aimed directly at the Russian audience, it is obviously real.
You just can't back down on this statement, Russia just woke up and a majority have grasped that they have lost the war.
Russians can after all read between the lines, in fact their survival depends on that ability.
Their survival also depends on being able to regurgitate ad verbatim the official talking points, and they just got a new one from the highest source available.

Unless Putin goes on a fullblown Tour of Russia singing and dancing that the war is going to continue, Shoigu's message will stand as the new truth.

Kyiv
This is a tad "scuttlebutt", but according to HQ the Russians have requested an afternoon call directly with Zelenzkyy.
And since it was Budanov that scuttlebutted I suspect that there is at least some smoke to the fire.
Supposedly it is also not Putin calling, there is no way Zelenzkyy would talk to him, and the Russians know this.

My personal guess is that it is either Lavrov, Shoigu, or Uncle Luka that will call.
It may though be someone completely different that will call, as mentioned we are since a few weeks back not entirely sure who is running Russia.

During the Field Commanders morning call it was Tank Girl that took the drivers seat (a tad unusual) and stated:
"Remember that we are soldiers, it is our job to destroy the Russian army until we receive other orders, let us leave a memory that will never wash away in Russia instead of speculate on things that is not ours to decide".

We are not sure that there will be peace right now, it may still take some more rectal pain for the Russians, but the seed of peace has been firmly planted now in Russia, and there is a lot of fertilizer in Russia for it to grow rapidly.
In the end there will be peace, and it is pretty close.
And the deeper and harder we push in the proverbial unlubed dildo of consequence, the faster we will get there, and the more the Russians will accept to pay for peace.
Time for the final mad dash of pain-spreading."
 
Short note

"So, a short Halloween story out of Ukraine.

The Russian monthly new number of conscripts and mobiks arriving in Ukraine is on average 20 000.
The average monthly number of dead Russians in Ukraine is 17 900.
The Wounded in Action is 41 170 on an average month, and out of those 21 480 are maimed for life (handicapped), the others are sent back to the front to experience they joys of Ukrainian attention once more.

So, 39 380 Russian soldiers per month is either permanently out of the war as crippled or dead.

I wanted to explain this so that people understand why the Russian lines buckle now.
The rate of loss was never sustainable for Russia, nor does Russia have the population pool to withstand the losses incurred over time.
The latter mainly due to Russians having left the country, are hiding in the woods, or simply prefer jail over death in Ukraine."
 
Although it will never happen, I dearly want him tried for these atrocities at The Hague. I still can’t understand how Russian public opinion has not yet turned upon him. These numbers are staggeringly depressing
 
Although it will never happen, I dearly want him tried for these atrocities at The Hague. I still can’t understand how Russian public opinion has not yet turned upon him. These numbers are staggeringly depressing

I do think Ukraine are inflating the numbers a little , but there is no chance in hell Russia are going to share their true casualties from the war
 
I do think Ukraine are inflating the numbers a little , but there is no chance in hell Russia are going to share their true casualties from the war

Ukraine only count verified bodies on the ground deaths .... so the totals may be more. Other numbers come from Russian govt compensation payments etc.
 
It really is what he looks like ... except his beard and hair have gone grey in the last few months. And when you see what he has been up to, it's no wonder why .... this is some of his recent handiwork. He is now nursing two broken ribs and 12 stitches in a shrapnel wound. I hope he packs it in within the next few days, I need him back.

I thought he was meant heading home a couple of weeks ago maybe I missed the update?
 
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