TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Let's hope they try it - and are weakened so badly that they are out of Ukraine quicker
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The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Lefty
Well-known member
Yes, in the round it is likely to bring a quicker end to the war. When Hitler launched the Ardennes Battle of the bulge offensive gamble it had some short term success, captured some territory, killed and captured some US forces and there was some bitter fighting, but the Americans dug in, eventually deployed forces to counter and when the weather picked up the air power destroyed the German panzers. At that time German forces were seriously stretched and under equipped. This expensively equipped force could have been deployed much more sensibly and made the assault on Germany seriously costly and more difficult. It was tough enough anyway. Instead most of these panzers were destroyed, broke down or ran out of fuel. It delayed the allies assault on the western front by a month, but made it easier, while the transfer of forces from the eastern front actually brought forward the red army offensive by a fortnight. It sped up the end and overall cost less lives, though there were still around 200k casualties on all sides and civilians.
Lefty
Well-known member
Wow. He is betting big on the war ending in defeat, so he must know the situation and reckoning that will come before these people can get to him. Also that there will be a popular upswell of anger and blame, where he will be the voice of brave dissent they rally to.
He has become so popular with ordinary Russians, it might be difficult to have him taken out of the game without stirring unrest. It's unfortunate that he is such an unpleasant piece of work.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
Meet the new boss….same as the old boss….
Or worse….
There are actually some much better options there, in the wings, but they do not yet have the necessary means to take control. The Russian economy though is in dire straights and it's going to get worse in 2023. And after the last couple of days, during which oil sales have fallen to negligable levels (and a price point where Russia loses a substantial amount on every barrel), it's even worse than Konstantin's analysis here.
Following the post the other day about tanks, he thought some more clarification was needed.
This post is ostensibly for tank nerds (you might surmise that he is a tank nerd).
"I think I was not clear on the difference between western and Russian tanks.
So, I will do a bit of tankology for you guys.
Ukraine will initially receive Leopard II Block 4s, also called Mod 4, Type 4... depending on the country.
I will for unnatural reasons use the Swedish nomenclature.
Leopard II Block 1 to Block 4 is one distinct model, with 4 iterations of upgrades.
It is the block 4 with the 44 calibre Rheinmetal smoothbore gun and without the laminated titanium armour protection that will initially be sent to Ukraine.
This one exists in several versions depending on how they have been upgraded electronically and with apliqé armour, skirts, slat-armour, etcetera.
In the Western armies this type is rapidly being mothballed or scrapped. Basically nobody uses them any longer.
According to Pundit "wisdom" it is inferior to the T90M and T90S.
This is far from true.
The armour is comparative, but the gun is far better.
It has much better stabilisation, so you can shoot while running at speed.
This increases the likelihood for a first shot hit, and that is all important in a modern tank battle.
It also has way better visibility, and with visibility in "tank lingo" we are talking about your visibility out from the tank commanders and gunners cupolas.
First to spot normally wins.
Ie, in a Leopard II you can spot an enemy easier than from a tank commanders cupola compared to a T90.
It has comparative night fighting equipment as a T90, but without spare parts I would not be surprised if many of the Russian tanks have lost that ability.
The Leopard II Block 4 is quite suited for Ukrainian manouvre warfare against the more static Russians.
Then we come to the ace in the hole.
A leopard is slightly faster forward, but a T90 can only back up at 4km per hour. A Leopard II can back up in 30km per hour.
This means that you can jump out from behind a house, fire, and jump back behind it or even run away backwards before anyone can fire back at you. A T90 can't do this. Yes, it will get what it is firing at, but the friend of what you hit have ample time to blow up the T90...
If we put all of this together we get a 5 to 1 advantage to a Block 4 tank over a T90 if we include that the Ukrainians are better tankers in general.
Leopard Block 5, Block SE (also known as the STRV-122, my little tank), Block 6 and Block 7 are a completely different tanks and should honestly have been called Leopard III.
It has titanium composite armour, a longer calibre 55 gun (higher velocity), better night fighting gear, better visibility, side-skirts, better active protection, better electronics, better protection against mines, better stabilizer... the works is better. Almost the only thing remaining is the diesel engine from the previous models.
These one have phenomenally better survivability and fighting capacity.
Countries
Poland, Germany, Greece and Denmark will gift Block 4s. Sweden and Finland will gift Block SEs and Block 6s.
The Block SE is an upgraded Block 5, that later became the Block 6 with a few more upgrades.
In total this will be 72 tanks in the first "batch" that will be pledged in Rammstein (unless Germany **** themselves again), then it will be 60.
Challenger II
Comparative to a Leopard Block 5, but the gun is slightly less potent against armour since it has a rifled barrel.
This is due to the UK putting greater emphasis on being able to service the enemy with explosive rounds, good against fortifications and light armour, while the Leopard II is more of a dedicated tank killer firing fin-stabilized discarding sabots.
We instead use our Archer platforms to blow up fortifications and other **** and run the artillery together with the tanks, obviously with the tanks first. Ukraine is also doing that to a high degree for some reason... cough!
The Challenger II has a water-heater for tea and automatic track tensioning, something that every single tanker on earth is bloody jealous of. This increases crew durability to a surprising degree.
With the Challenger IIs the tank count is up to 84.
Leclerq
I do not know a heck of a lot about these tanks, but I know that they are comparable to the Leopard II Block 5s.
They probably come with a baguette and red wine dispenser, most french equipment does.
With the Leclerqs the tank count is up to 96.
Abrams
Big roomy, comfy...
Same gun exactly as the Leopard IIs, the later ones have the 55 calible gun.
It is though as everything American a gas gussler of prodigious proportions, it is also heavy putting a limit on the amount of bridges that can be used compared to the others.
Together with the Challenger IIs and Block 5+ they have the best armour of the bunch.
Proven amply to be able to blow up insane amounts of T72s and T80s without dying in tank battles all over Iraq and Syria...
If we assume the US sends 12 of these we are now at 108 tanks, but something tells me that the US will try to match the others Tank for tank.
T90
Something that the Pundits do not get is that the T90 has the same armour and hull as a T72, it is basically an extensive upgrade.
Why make new hulls if you have thousands laying around in the fields if you have not designed a new hull for the new tank to begin with?
Problem is just that the armour quality of the hull is soso quality control wise.
This is why so many of them blow up, or peel open like rotten fruits.
The turret is though much sturdier on the T90, but they did not fix the problem with the lack of a blowout compartment for ammo, so the turret will fly if there is an internal fire. All western tanks have isolated blowout compartments that can instantly fill with liquid and with special blow out hatches.
Anything above a Block 4 is wastly superior, and I would say that the Block 4s have better quality control and are less prone to peeling open.
The reusing hulls really bites Russia in the ass.
This enabled someone to sell of their hull production line to South Korea, effectively hindering Russia from being able to produce new hulls for the next couple of years, and there are no signs of them building a new production line at UralVagonZavodsk.
Conclusion
Between 108 and 192 tanks in a first round will make a difference that I am struggling with to explain.
All of them are superior to the T90s, but can be killed by them, but the Block5s, Challengers and Abrams can only be taken out from the side, not with a front shot, but they can take out the T90s with a front shot...
A T72 can take out from the side, but is ridiculously inferior to all of them.
T64, T62 and T55s (these are the bulk tanks for Russia now) will at best scrape paint and dent one of them.
Unless Russia has 500 remaining T90s I do not see it as ending well for them.
And there's thousands of older Abrams and Leopard IIs in storage, ready to send out to Ukraine if needed.
Russia just ran into a panzer wall, something nobody thought possible before this war.¨
Russia had far fewer tanks than expected, and they are of lower quality than expected.
Yes, Russia are fixing their old tanks, but at a rate of about 250 per year this is far from enough to make a difference in the greater scheme of things."
This post is ostensibly for tank nerds (you might surmise that he is a tank nerd).
"I think I was not clear on the difference between western and Russian tanks.
So, I will do a bit of tankology for you guys.
Ukraine will initially receive Leopard II Block 4s, also called Mod 4, Type 4... depending on the country.
I will for unnatural reasons use the Swedish nomenclature.
Leopard II Block 1 to Block 4 is one distinct model, with 4 iterations of upgrades.
It is the block 4 with the 44 calibre Rheinmetal smoothbore gun and without the laminated titanium armour protection that will initially be sent to Ukraine.
This one exists in several versions depending on how they have been upgraded electronically and with apliqé armour, skirts, slat-armour, etcetera.
In the Western armies this type is rapidly being mothballed or scrapped. Basically nobody uses them any longer.
According to Pundit "wisdom" it is inferior to the T90M and T90S.
This is far from true.
The armour is comparative, but the gun is far better.
It has much better stabilisation, so you can shoot while running at speed.
This increases the likelihood for a first shot hit, and that is all important in a modern tank battle.
It also has way better visibility, and with visibility in "tank lingo" we are talking about your visibility out from the tank commanders and gunners cupolas.
First to spot normally wins.
Ie, in a Leopard II you can spot an enemy easier than from a tank commanders cupola compared to a T90.
It has comparative night fighting equipment as a T90, but without spare parts I would not be surprised if many of the Russian tanks have lost that ability.
The Leopard II Block 4 is quite suited for Ukrainian manouvre warfare against the more static Russians.
Then we come to the ace in the hole.
A leopard is slightly faster forward, but a T90 can only back up at 4km per hour. A Leopard II can back up in 30km per hour.
This means that you can jump out from behind a house, fire, and jump back behind it or even run away backwards before anyone can fire back at you. A T90 can't do this. Yes, it will get what it is firing at, but the friend of what you hit have ample time to blow up the T90...
If we put all of this together we get a 5 to 1 advantage to a Block 4 tank over a T90 if we include that the Ukrainians are better tankers in general.
Leopard Block 5, Block SE (also known as the STRV-122, my little tank), Block 6 and Block 7 are a completely different tanks and should honestly have been called Leopard III.
It has titanium composite armour, a longer calibre 55 gun (higher velocity), better night fighting gear, better visibility, side-skirts, better active protection, better electronics, better protection against mines, better stabilizer... the works is better. Almost the only thing remaining is the diesel engine from the previous models.
These one have phenomenally better survivability and fighting capacity.
Countries
Poland, Germany, Greece and Denmark will gift Block 4s. Sweden and Finland will gift Block SEs and Block 6s.
The Block SE is an upgraded Block 5, that later became the Block 6 with a few more upgrades.
In total this will be 72 tanks in the first "batch" that will be pledged in Rammstein (unless Germany **** themselves again), then it will be 60.
Challenger II
Comparative to a Leopard Block 5, but the gun is slightly less potent against armour since it has a rifled barrel.
This is due to the UK putting greater emphasis on being able to service the enemy with explosive rounds, good against fortifications and light armour, while the Leopard II is more of a dedicated tank killer firing fin-stabilized discarding sabots.
We instead use our Archer platforms to blow up fortifications and other **** and run the artillery together with the tanks, obviously with the tanks first. Ukraine is also doing that to a high degree for some reason... cough!
The Challenger II has a water-heater for tea and automatic track tensioning, something that every single tanker on earth is bloody jealous of. This increases crew durability to a surprising degree.
With the Challenger IIs the tank count is up to 84.
Leclerq
I do not know a heck of a lot about these tanks, but I know that they are comparable to the Leopard II Block 5s.
They probably come with a baguette and red wine dispenser, most french equipment does.
With the Leclerqs the tank count is up to 96.
Abrams
Big roomy, comfy...
Same gun exactly as the Leopard IIs, the later ones have the 55 calible gun.
It is though as everything American a gas gussler of prodigious proportions, it is also heavy putting a limit on the amount of bridges that can be used compared to the others.
Together with the Challenger IIs and Block 5+ they have the best armour of the bunch.
Proven amply to be able to blow up insane amounts of T72s and T80s without dying in tank battles all over Iraq and Syria...
If we assume the US sends 12 of these we are now at 108 tanks, but something tells me that the US will try to match the others Tank for tank.
T90
Something that the Pundits do not get is that the T90 has the same armour and hull as a T72, it is basically an extensive upgrade.
Why make new hulls if you have thousands laying around in the fields if you have not designed a new hull for the new tank to begin with?
Problem is just that the armour quality of the hull is soso quality control wise.
This is why so many of them blow up, or peel open like rotten fruits.
The turret is though much sturdier on the T90, but they did not fix the problem with the lack of a blowout compartment for ammo, so the turret will fly if there is an internal fire. All western tanks have isolated blowout compartments that can instantly fill with liquid and with special blow out hatches.
Anything above a Block 4 is wastly superior, and I would say that the Block 4s have better quality control and are less prone to peeling open.
The reusing hulls really bites Russia in the ass.
This enabled someone to sell of their hull production line to South Korea, effectively hindering Russia from being able to produce new hulls for the next couple of years, and there are no signs of them building a new production line at UralVagonZavodsk.
Conclusion
Between 108 and 192 tanks in a first round will make a difference that I am struggling with to explain.
All of them are superior to the T90s, but can be killed by them, but the Block5s, Challengers and Abrams can only be taken out from the side, not with a front shot, but they can take out the T90s with a front shot...
A T72 can take out from the side, but is ridiculously inferior to all of them.
T64, T62 and T55s (these are the bulk tanks for Russia now) will at best scrape paint and dent one of them.
Unless Russia has 500 remaining T90s I do not see it as ending well for them.
And there's thousands of older Abrams and Leopard IIs in storage, ready to send out to Ukraine if needed.
Russia just ran into a panzer wall, something nobody thought possible before this war.¨
Russia had far fewer tanks than expected, and they are of lower quality than expected.
Yes, Russia are fixing their old tanks, but at a rate of about 250 per year this is far from enough to make a difference in the greater scheme of things."
Lefty
Well-known member
Love the detail.
I'm not a tank nerd but I do watch the odd thing on tanks (WW2 mostly) plus I've been looking at a lot of Ukraine/Russia war stuff this last year on you tube and the algorithms led me to quite a few assessments on the Russian v Western tanks. Quite amusing to see how these tank wonks have downgraded the Russian ones in the last year. That is not a surprise to me, the Russians like to put out their propaganda still, while the west are far more honest in their assessments. The key is always in how they actually perform in the field.
The reverse speed of the T90 is a killer. It's bonkers. You get hit and what you need to do is hit reverse pronto. The Challenger, Abrams and Leopards are rapid. They have the armour to survive a first hit and then a chance to avoid the second. Apart from having the longest recorded kill, the Challenger 2 appears to be the most survivable in the world. Only one has been lost and that due to friendly fire from another Challenger 2 when the commanders hatch was unfortunately open. One tank survived 14 rpg hits and was repaired and back in action six hours later. This is also important. There is a stat that in July 44 during Operation Goodwood the Germans knocked out 493 British and Canadian tanks, which is a lot. However, what is less well known is that only 146 were actual write off's, the rest were recovered and repaired and in fact 132 of them were back in the field 24 hours later. The Germans lost 86 tanks and they were permanent losses.
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Update
"
Well, that musing lasted long didn't it...
Scratch the part about the T90 turret being any good.
It turns out that it is a piece of ****.
Someone aimed a Swedish AT-4 bööm tube against it, a weapon that is not even designed to blow up full blown modern tanks, and it made coffee wood out of the poor turret.
This is the even further approved T90S that Russia stole from India. The T90S was about to be delivered to India, and was paid for, when Putin nabbed them without as much as a thank you.
It has active protection, reactive armour, and the full tower apliqé armour.
I honestly did not think that the T90s are this bad.
They might even be worse than the T72s.
In one of the clips you actually see the ERA go off, but it did not help.
(1) Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "Smoking Russian T-90M (the most modern working tank in service with Russian army). As the author suggests, it was shot down by a Swedish grenade launcher under the gun mantlet. https://t.co/8VnUCt7eqL https://t.co/5vMgJNPBEu" / Twitter "
"
Well, that musing lasted long didn't it...
Scratch the part about the T90 turret being any good.
It turns out that it is a piece of ****.
Someone aimed a Swedish AT-4 bööm tube against it, a weapon that is not even designed to blow up full blown modern tanks, and it made coffee wood out of the poor turret.
This is the even further approved T90S that Russia stole from India. The T90S was about to be delivered to India, and was paid for, when Putin nabbed them without as much as a thank you.
It has active protection, reactive armour, and the full tower apliqé armour.
I honestly did not think that the T90s are this bad.
They might even be worse than the T72s.
In one of the clips you actually see the ERA go off, but it did not help.
(1) Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "Smoking Russian T-90M (the most modern working tank in service with Russian army). As the author suggests, it was shot down by a Swedish grenade launcher under the gun mantlet. https://t.co/8VnUCt7eqL https://t.co/5vMgJNPBEu" / Twitter "
BandH
Member
I wonder what impact the 5th February diesel ban will change things?
I need to thank the source's for the information here, really helps to gain a fuller picture on what is going on.
A brief snippet.
A certain Tank Girl is claiming 12 x T90 in 24 hrs.
Some going if true.
A certain Tank Girl is claiming 12 x T90 in 24 hrs.
Some going if true.
h_m_boro
Well-known member
And what tank is she in to be able to do this?
Are the tanks mentioned earlier superior to what the Ukrainians have on the battlefield at present?
As far as I am aware she's in an old T72. They don't have the Leopards or Challengers yet (and in answer to your other question, yes).
Lefty
Well-known member
What we do know in general is that the Russians have been pretty lazy on maintenance of their vehicles and very corrupt syphoning funds allocated to equipment manufacture, so it's not a stretch to imagine that they just haven't bothered sufficiently updating and maintaining their T72 andT90's, even if they weren't overblowing their qualities. They had a vast numbers of tanks on paper and were unlikely to use them against any enemy they couldn't overwhelm, at least so they thought. In addition, the way the Russians do battle is traditionally just to pound the hell out of the opposition with vast artillery barrages and then roll the tanks in under air superiority cover. A reasonably even tank on tank battle was not envisaged.
In addition the Russians, going all the way back to WW2, have had an attitude of 'that will do'. So the T34 was a fantastic advance in tank design and a huge shock to the Germans, whose shells just bounced off this new sloped armour. It led to the Germans Panther and Tiger tanks. These German tanks were of course engineered the hell out of. Over engineered in fact, costly and not easy to maintain/repair. The T34 could have been improved, could have been made more crew friendly and could have been finished off better in the factory. They weren't, that wasn't the Russian attitude. Good enough was the mantra. They didn't care about crew comfort or morale, they didn't actually care about losses. Better produced T34's could have gone much longer before having maintenance issues, but the Russians didn't care. When they conked out on the battlefield, which happened a lot, they were just abandoned. The factories churned them out all the time. Some of this attitude, fueled no doubt by the myth of the Great Patriotic War, persists.
By contrast, since 2014 if not before, Ukraine have been preparing for a conflict where they were going to be facing these numbers and tactics, so for them they have had to eke out every improvement, every advantage they could, be that improving equipment or tactics, training, support. We've seen them adapt equipment and innovate on tactics. It wouldn't surprise me if their T72's are comparable to the Russian T90's, while their crews and tactics are far better.
In addition the Russians, going all the way back to WW2, have had an attitude of 'that will do'. So the T34 was a fantastic advance in tank design and a huge shock to the Germans, whose shells just bounced off this new sloped armour. It led to the Germans Panther and Tiger tanks. These German tanks were of course engineered the hell out of. Over engineered in fact, costly and not easy to maintain/repair. The T34 could have been improved, could have been made more crew friendly and could have been finished off better in the factory. They weren't, that wasn't the Russian attitude. Good enough was the mantra. They didn't care about crew comfort or morale, they didn't actually care about losses. Better produced T34's could have gone much longer before having maintenance issues, but the Russians didn't care. When they conked out on the battlefield, which happened a lot, they were just abandoned. The factories churned them out all the time. Some of this attitude, fueled no doubt by the myth of the Great Patriotic War, persists.
By contrast, since 2014 if not before, Ukraine have been preparing for a conflict where they were going to be facing these numbers and tactics, so for them they have had to eke out every improvement, every advantage they could, be that improving equipment or tactics, training, support. We've seen them adapt equipment and innovate on tactics. It wouldn't surprise me if their T72's are comparable to the Russian T90's, while their crews and tactics are far better.
Decent_Left
Well-known member
Feel sorry for Oryx and his mate Jakub if she keeps that rate up as they already have months of backlog on their tracker
Feel sorry for Oryx and his mate Jakub if she keeps that rate up as they already have months of backlog on their tracker
Had it clarified that it's her brigade's tally, rather than her personally. The 12 actually showed up on one of thae overall equipment loss tallies yesterday.
This guy is pretty good, as well as being amusing at times (I know it's not really a laughing matter).
Whatever next?
"As more and more heavy equipment is arriving in the direction and into Ukraine it is becoming ever more apparent to the Russian High Command that something must be done to stop those.
After all, if Ukraine continues to receive ever more potent weapons systems it is just a question of time before Russia is indeed pushed out of Ukraine.
This is causing a lot of desperation inside of Russia.
It also seemingly has increased the amounts of drugs taken by Gerasimov and Soyghurt, judging from the press conference that Gerasimov held.
What he claimed and what Russia can deliver upon in regards of troops and equipment is so far apart that drugs just have to be a part of the equation.
According to Gerasimov Russia will perform a spring offensive in the Sumy area using 700 000 men plus a further 200 000 men in reserve, and at the same time he stated that a Lviv might become a target for an offensive.
In his ramblings a single word might be true, the rest is just ludicrous lies and misrepresentations.
So, what are the real figures, and presumed to be real goals, in all of this?
Russia today has 500 000 troops in Ukraine constituted of regular army, mobiks, Wagnerites, DPR and LPR pressganged forces.
They had planned to have an additional 200 000 trained and well equipped (well, for being Russians) soldiers for the spring offensive.
But those have been whittled down to around 50 000 trained and equiped soldiers due to wartime needs at the frontline to cover the losses.
Russia has started a new wave of mobilisation, that will be presented tomorrow by a "Putin". Internal sources state that they will mobilise 500 000 new green soldiers between 16 and 37 years, but the same papers state that they will be lucky if they get 200 000 in the time frame needed for a spring offensive.
Obviously there is no heavy equipment for them.
So, instead of 700 000 new troops doing a sizeable offensive there will be 50 000 real soldiers and 200 000 meat targets.
Obviously the 500 000 already in Ukraine will do what they can.
So, let us be generous and state that the total figure will be 750 000 soldiers that are randomly and poorly equiped.
They will be met by 1 050 000 motivated, fairly to well equiped, and well trained Ukrainian soldiers where about half are combat veterans...
Even if Russia could have fielded the promised 1 200 000 badly equiped soldiers it would not even remotely been enough.
So, what could Russia do on the 24th of February? (Or whenever now they will attack)
A massive attack on Kyiv, Zumy and Kharkiv is just out of the question with the 250 000 mobiks at hand against some of the most well fortified areas in the world.
It would be short and fairly hilarious to watch.
I know, Russians do not have a lot of brain capacity and drugs are involved, but not even they can't be this stupid.
It is also fairly well supported by fact, we do not see any large troop formations forming there. And moving 250 000 soldiers take a hell of a long time.
The likely Russian plan?
So, let us return to what I believe (think, have bloody good reason to think true), Lviv.
Here we see evidence.
Russia has so far a formation of 50 000 soldiers in the southwest corner, they have moved in equipment, they have moved in missile launchers, air defence, air force, tanks, artillery... and there are functioning rail lines to push in more troops over the next month, perhaps as much as 200 000 mobiks in their adidas clothes and with Kalashnikovs that perhaps work.
On top of that there seems to be the potential for Belarus getting involved in all of this.
That would add another 57 000 troops that are trained and equiped.
The risk has gone up, and here are the reasons behind the increased risk:
-Belarus is currently performing exercises with the Russians nearby.
-Belarus and Russia has announced an air force excercise.
-Belarus is closing the border for all men on the first of February.
-Belarus is also moving units towards Poland.
Regardless, this is still not enough to make for a successive offensive towards Lviv.
I think that the gargafabulistic Zumy campaign is just a smoke screen attempt to confuse, and the real one will be down the border of Ukraine and Poland in the hopes of cutting the lifeline from the West.
This is insanely dangerous on the Russian part in case mistakes are made and they fire into Poland, or accidentally cross the border.
At the level of anger in Poland, and the amount of artillery and tanks they have amassed at the border, they will most likely just say Kurvah and open fire with everything they have.
On top of that there are loads of NATO troops on the same border and a lot of them also come from countries that are trigger happy.
And if Belarus is involved they would probably feel that taking parts of Belarus as a security zone is a very good idea.
Belarus is in no way, sort, or form, sacrosanct from being attacked as Russia is at the moment.
Regardless, I am fairly certain that Ukraine will squash the entire offensive at, or very near the border to Belarus.
Moscow
In Moscow people are openly joking that the Demilitarization is going so well that they now need more Air Defence.
Russia is moving S-400 systems en masse into new positions inside Moscow for the people to ogle at...
Seems like confidence is at top level over in Moscow.
Ukraine Missile Response
Yesterday Ukraine hit Crimea with more than 30 suicide drones. Russia claims no damage, but there are quite a few videos of air defence missiles dropping into places, and explosions inside various bases in Crimea.
Ukraine matched the exact number with the latest Russian missile attack.
There was also air defence sirens over both Moscow and St Petersburgs with detonations reported.
Kreminna
I am starting to believe that my favourite colonel is a truly great field commander.
Or, that the T-90 tank sucks and are being driven by moroons.
I am leaning towards the first thing, but with a portion of the second.
Russia lost 12 T90S tanks in 24 hours. She used Himars strikes, Artillery precission strikes, a Swedish AT-4 (that is not even supposed to work on a T-90), regular tank battles, drone strikes, helicopter strikes, and one of her tanks even got up behind a T-90 and fired point blank into it.
12 tanks, 12 different ways... Jesus.
Anyway, the remaining Russian tanks called it a day and withdrew post haste.
This left the Ukrainians fighting in the outskirts down south of Kreminna City, and in the north they have slowly entered the suburb.
It is now Lyman 2.0... Russians openly cursing, screaming, crying, dying.
The Russian artillery have gone silent, partially due to having been blown up, and partially due to having run out of shells now that the supply roads are cut.
Due to the barrier troops the Russians can't flee the salient without being killed, if they remain they will be killed, so a trickle of surrendering troops is slowly becoming a flood.
Around 15 000 Russians are inside the City, as such it is shaping to be the largest single defeat for Russia.
All of it because Putin ordered them to fight to the last man standing and refused to evacuate them.
Losses & Desperation
Together with Bakhmut and Soledar, this means that Russia in the last 4 weeks have lost around 30 000 soldiers permanently, and around 90 000 wounded (that will be sent back to the front).
Russia has cancelled sending back home their wounded, it is patching up and out again.
Russia is now so hard pressed that they have to pay Ukraine to have their own soldiers back at a 4:1 ration. For each Russian they send 4 Ukrainians. Only problem, yesterday they ran out of soldiers and had to fill up with Ukrainian children (which Ukraine was happy about) to get 200 Russian soldiers back for the frontline.
Tanks on Satelite
The tanks have started to amass on the border between Poland and Ukraine.
For a few weeks a mystery train with 40 Leopard IIs have been sitting on a side track, initial reports said 80. These are German origin, sent in advance most likely for when Germany would "be pushed" into sending in tanks.
Germanys hesitation is understandable, German tanks in Ukraine blowing up scores of Russians... but, Germany reluctantly coming in as third or fourth country after having been badgered? Much better optics.
Then there are 14 Polish Block 5 PLs, 4 Challenger IIs that mysteriously just arrived ahead of its 10 friends that is being repainted in the UK.
At the same time a train with 20 Abrams M1A2s is rushing from Vliesingen Port through Germany destined for the Polish border.
A train set with 12 Block SE together with 12 Archers is standing on a side track here ready to go, same in Finland.
Denmark is also reportedly changing out flags and repainting a further 12 Block 4s.
All in all, the first wave will be substantial.
Ukraine has asked for a minimum of 300 tanks to be able to push out the Russians.
I thought initially they would receive a quarter per wave, then it looked like a third, but it seems like they are getting half in one go.
At the same time Ukraine is receiving more artillery in the coming two months than they have received during the entire war, with the shells to match.
Conclusion
If Gerasimov stops taking his anti-depressives and anti-psychotics (on prescription) that he receives to cope with the loss of his only child, and Soyghurt stops taking cocaine with Peskov, they would discover that the reality for Russia is every bit as bleak and cold as in Oymyakon.
As Strelkov put it: "Russia has failed in every objective and goal, now remains only the inevitable loss and humiliation of Russia".
He has a knack for words.
This has now started to echo inside of the Russian TV Landscape, with more and more "experts" and "pundits" saying the same.
In Russia it has been announced that there will be a big proclamation by Putin tomorrow.
It is most likely the news that another half a million will be mobiked, and the announcement of another spring offensive.
A final little tidbit. Today the Russian gas and oil revenue has shrunk to 25 percent of what it was on this day a year ago."
Some of Tank Girl's brigades' work
"As more and more heavy equipment is arriving in the direction and into Ukraine it is becoming ever more apparent to the Russian High Command that something must be done to stop those.
After all, if Ukraine continues to receive ever more potent weapons systems it is just a question of time before Russia is indeed pushed out of Ukraine.
This is causing a lot of desperation inside of Russia.
It also seemingly has increased the amounts of drugs taken by Gerasimov and Soyghurt, judging from the press conference that Gerasimov held.
What he claimed and what Russia can deliver upon in regards of troops and equipment is so far apart that drugs just have to be a part of the equation.
According to Gerasimov Russia will perform a spring offensive in the Sumy area using 700 000 men plus a further 200 000 men in reserve, and at the same time he stated that a Lviv might become a target for an offensive.
In his ramblings a single word might be true, the rest is just ludicrous lies and misrepresentations.
So, what are the real figures, and presumed to be real goals, in all of this?
Russia today has 500 000 troops in Ukraine constituted of regular army, mobiks, Wagnerites, DPR and LPR pressganged forces.
They had planned to have an additional 200 000 trained and well equipped (well, for being Russians) soldiers for the spring offensive.
But those have been whittled down to around 50 000 trained and equiped soldiers due to wartime needs at the frontline to cover the losses.
Russia has started a new wave of mobilisation, that will be presented tomorrow by a "Putin". Internal sources state that they will mobilise 500 000 new green soldiers between 16 and 37 years, but the same papers state that they will be lucky if they get 200 000 in the time frame needed for a spring offensive.
Obviously there is no heavy equipment for them.
So, instead of 700 000 new troops doing a sizeable offensive there will be 50 000 real soldiers and 200 000 meat targets.
Obviously the 500 000 already in Ukraine will do what they can.
So, let us be generous and state that the total figure will be 750 000 soldiers that are randomly and poorly equiped.
They will be met by 1 050 000 motivated, fairly to well equiped, and well trained Ukrainian soldiers where about half are combat veterans...
Even if Russia could have fielded the promised 1 200 000 badly equiped soldiers it would not even remotely been enough.
So, what could Russia do on the 24th of February? (Or whenever now they will attack)
A massive attack on Kyiv, Zumy and Kharkiv is just out of the question with the 250 000 mobiks at hand against some of the most well fortified areas in the world.
It would be short and fairly hilarious to watch.
I know, Russians do not have a lot of brain capacity and drugs are involved, but not even they can't be this stupid.
It is also fairly well supported by fact, we do not see any large troop formations forming there. And moving 250 000 soldiers take a hell of a long time.
The likely Russian plan?
So, let us return to what I believe (think, have bloody good reason to think true), Lviv.
Here we see evidence.
Russia has so far a formation of 50 000 soldiers in the southwest corner, they have moved in equipment, they have moved in missile launchers, air defence, air force, tanks, artillery... and there are functioning rail lines to push in more troops over the next month, perhaps as much as 200 000 mobiks in their adidas clothes and with Kalashnikovs that perhaps work.
On top of that there seems to be the potential for Belarus getting involved in all of this.
That would add another 57 000 troops that are trained and equiped.
The risk has gone up, and here are the reasons behind the increased risk:
-Belarus is currently performing exercises with the Russians nearby.
-Belarus and Russia has announced an air force excercise.
-Belarus is closing the border for all men on the first of February.
-Belarus is also moving units towards Poland.
Regardless, this is still not enough to make for a successive offensive towards Lviv.
I think that the gargafabulistic Zumy campaign is just a smoke screen attempt to confuse, and the real one will be down the border of Ukraine and Poland in the hopes of cutting the lifeline from the West.
This is insanely dangerous on the Russian part in case mistakes are made and they fire into Poland, or accidentally cross the border.
At the level of anger in Poland, and the amount of artillery and tanks they have amassed at the border, they will most likely just say Kurvah and open fire with everything they have.
On top of that there are loads of NATO troops on the same border and a lot of them also come from countries that are trigger happy.
And if Belarus is involved they would probably feel that taking parts of Belarus as a security zone is a very good idea.
Belarus is in no way, sort, or form, sacrosanct from being attacked as Russia is at the moment.
Regardless, I am fairly certain that Ukraine will squash the entire offensive at, or very near the border to Belarus.
Moscow
In Moscow people are openly joking that the Demilitarization is going so well that they now need more Air Defence.
Russia is moving S-400 systems en masse into new positions inside Moscow for the people to ogle at...
Seems like confidence is at top level over in Moscow.
Ukraine Missile Response
Yesterday Ukraine hit Crimea with more than 30 suicide drones. Russia claims no damage, but there are quite a few videos of air defence missiles dropping into places, and explosions inside various bases in Crimea.
Ukraine matched the exact number with the latest Russian missile attack.
There was also air defence sirens over both Moscow and St Petersburgs with detonations reported.
Kreminna
I am starting to believe that my favourite colonel is a truly great field commander.
Or, that the T-90 tank sucks and are being driven by moroons.
I am leaning towards the first thing, but with a portion of the second.
Russia lost 12 T90S tanks in 24 hours. She used Himars strikes, Artillery precission strikes, a Swedish AT-4 (that is not even supposed to work on a T-90), regular tank battles, drone strikes, helicopter strikes, and one of her tanks even got up behind a T-90 and fired point blank into it.
12 tanks, 12 different ways... Jesus.
Anyway, the remaining Russian tanks called it a day and withdrew post haste.
This left the Ukrainians fighting in the outskirts down south of Kreminna City, and in the north they have slowly entered the suburb.
It is now Lyman 2.0... Russians openly cursing, screaming, crying, dying.
The Russian artillery have gone silent, partially due to having been blown up, and partially due to having run out of shells now that the supply roads are cut.
Due to the barrier troops the Russians can't flee the salient without being killed, if they remain they will be killed, so a trickle of surrendering troops is slowly becoming a flood.
Around 15 000 Russians are inside the City, as such it is shaping to be the largest single defeat for Russia.
All of it because Putin ordered them to fight to the last man standing and refused to evacuate them.
Losses & Desperation
Together with Bakhmut and Soledar, this means that Russia in the last 4 weeks have lost around 30 000 soldiers permanently, and around 90 000 wounded (that will be sent back to the front).
Russia has cancelled sending back home their wounded, it is patching up and out again.
Russia is now so hard pressed that they have to pay Ukraine to have their own soldiers back at a 4:1 ration. For each Russian they send 4 Ukrainians. Only problem, yesterday they ran out of soldiers and had to fill up with Ukrainian children (which Ukraine was happy about) to get 200 Russian soldiers back for the frontline.
Tanks on Satelite
The tanks have started to amass on the border between Poland and Ukraine.
For a few weeks a mystery train with 40 Leopard IIs have been sitting on a side track, initial reports said 80. These are German origin, sent in advance most likely for when Germany would "be pushed" into sending in tanks.
Germanys hesitation is understandable, German tanks in Ukraine blowing up scores of Russians... but, Germany reluctantly coming in as third or fourth country after having been badgered? Much better optics.
Then there are 14 Polish Block 5 PLs, 4 Challenger IIs that mysteriously just arrived ahead of its 10 friends that is being repainted in the UK.
At the same time a train with 20 Abrams M1A2s is rushing from Vliesingen Port through Germany destined for the Polish border.
A train set with 12 Block SE together with 12 Archers is standing on a side track here ready to go, same in Finland.
Denmark is also reportedly changing out flags and repainting a further 12 Block 4s.
All in all, the first wave will be substantial.
Ukraine has asked for a minimum of 300 tanks to be able to push out the Russians.
I thought initially they would receive a quarter per wave, then it looked like a third, but it seems like they are getting half in one go.
At the same time Ukraine is receiving more artillery in the coming two months than they have received during the entire war, with the shells to match.
Conclusion
If Gerasimov stops taking his anti-depressives and anti-psychotics (on prescription) that he receives to cope with the loss of his only child, and Soyghurt stops taking cocaine with Peskov, they would discover that the reality for Russia is every bit as bleak and cold as in Oymyakon.
As Strelkov put it: "Russia has failed in every objective and goal, now remains only the inevitable loss and humiliation of Russia".
He has a knack for words.
This has now started to echo inside of the Russian TV Landscape, with more and more "experts" and "pundits" saying the same.
In Russia it has been announced that there will be a big proclamation by Putin tomorrow.
It is most likely the news that another half a million will be mobiked, and the announcement of another spring offensive.
A final little tidbit. Today the Russian gas and oil revenue has shrunk to 25 percent of what it was on this day a year ago."
Some of Tank Girl's brigades' work