The end?

Sausageski had criticised Putin and the war and was on holiday with his male ‘friend’ who had just died of a ‘heart attack’ So I think there’s a couple of pointers there, what with Putin’s reputation for tolerance.
 
Well, it took some finding, but for those following the exploits of Tank Girl. Here she is. This when she was pounding Kherson.

It was her mechanised brigade that just pushed the Russians back in Bakhmut. There'll be a post about this later.

 
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On Slavinska amongst other things.

"We all know that it took Russia 30 000 dead and 100 000 wounded to take the city dump of Bakhmut, but it took only 1 day for Ukraine to clear them back to the original frontline.
Someone asked what our intrepid colonel Slavinska was doing. These events are related.

As the ground in Kherson finally gave out under her tank-feet she was pulled out from having fun behind the Russian lines in Kherson.
After that she was according to her own words "fattened up". In other words, she and her brigade got a week of resting and eating, and a lot of new western equipment.
After that she was sent to Bakhmut to do some clearing of the city dump, and an entire heavy mechanised tank brigade clears things quite well it seems.

She is to remain there for the upcoming push to finally end the hell that is known as Bakhmut.
At the same time an entire train of Leopard IIs are moving slowly from Germany towards Bakhmut with German technicians doing some last minute pollishing.
She will get those in a few weeks. She is one of the very few Brigadiers trained on them (guess by who? )

Everyone are nervous about this, it is the first time that western tanks will go up against Russian tanks directly.
So, the Germans are behaving like nervous parents, and the best Ukrainian tank commander has been picked to lead them into battle.
There are even Germans inside Ukraine to fettle with the tanks if they break down, nothing is left to chance now.

If the ground is there she will break through, I am certain of that.
But, before she goes there, we will see her customary 12 hours of hellish artillery to soften the Russians up, and only then will she run through the lines.
Two entire artillery brigades with western barrels have swung into position to complement the two Soviet barreled brigades that are already there, but are holding until the ground freezes.
Remember that quarter of a million of shells that US just bought for Ukraine... I expect many of those to be used here.

On the Russian side there is a lot of whining in Bakhmut from the Wagnerites about not getting any new artillery shells.
The same is also heard along the frontline from Bakhmut up via Luhansk to the Russian border.
It is Surovikin that has cut supplies, both to kill as many Wagnerites as possible, and to conserve his meagre resources for Southern Donetsk, Zhaporizhzhia and Crimea.
He is also moving out regular troops in Luhansk down towards South, but the Wagnerites are ordered to hold at all cost.

This is a big tell about how strained the ammunition situation is on the Russian side, and how close Russia is to running out of artillery.

Missile Barrage
Yesterday was the day for the next big missile barrage. It did not happen due to Ukraine striking Engels Air Force Base deep inside Russia.
Obviously Russia will reschedule things, but it is telling of how it is now Ukraine that has the initiative of things even deep inside Russia.

Bankrun
For reasons that are unknown there are problems in the Russian banking world, and there are huge problems for ordinary Russians across all of Russia to withdraw cash.
All sorts of rumours are blossoming. That Russia is nationalising the banks. That all private money is being converted into war bonds. Etcetera.
Obviously this is leading to a lot of protests since Russians are doing their big Christmas shopping right now prior to Christmas on January 6th.
More or less, Christmas is cancelled in Russia this year.

Defenestrations
A third leader of a big arms conglomerate was defenestrated in as many days. This time it was the leader of the Russian ammunitions conglomerate.
He was found dead after falling out of a hotel window in India of all places. His friend Bidenov was poisoned in the same hotel. Both also worked with weapons manufacturing.
This is something completely new, these are Putinites through and through, so it is very much telling about how much power Putin has lost. Not being able to keep your own toadies safe is a big thing.
At this point it is quite uncertain who is doing the defenestrations.
Whoever it is, it is someone very powerful in the Russian sphere, and that someone is not happy about the war and Putins toadies.
The other option is obviously that it could be "us" doing it, but using Russian methodology.

Winter
If now only winter could set in for real and we get a big push, then I think we are back on track to Russia giving up.
As per usual it all depends on how stubborn Russia is really gonna be.

Peace
I find it peculiar that Ukraine is talking about a peace conference in February facilitated by the UN.
And, that at the same day they presented proof that Russias seat at the security council is not correctly assigned.
It turns out that it clearly says that it is the USSR that holds the seat, and not Russia, and that this assignment was done in 1991.
The legal wrangling aside, the peace conference coming up so soon after Zelenskyy's visit to the US is interesting.

At the same time the congress decided to massively increase it's military support of Ukraine, giving the Russians the carrot and the stick needed. Either make peace, or we continue to fund Ukraine into a victory against you.

This comes at the same time as more and more voices inside Russia is talking about peace talks and negotiations.
This was met by the US and Ukraine with a stern warning that it would be the Ukrainian 10-point peace plan that was the only offering on the table.

If Ukraine can dislodge Russia from the seat at the security council the road may even be open to making this a UN operation, at least if China is not using its veto.
To Russia that permanent seat is holy. They might give up the entire war just to keep it.

But, to pull this one off Ukraine needs a victory. And not any old victory, they need a stunning defeat of a sizeable portion of the Russian army.
Something that will reverberate across all of Russia.

My alternatives are Northern Donetsk (Bakhmut and a big chunk more), Large portion or all of Luhansk, or Melitopol.
With Vuhledar as a fourth choice.
There may even be a combination of all of those.
I think weather will decide in the end, Luhansk would be doable from a ground perspective, same with Bakhmut. Vuhledar and Melitopol not so much.

Knowing who just rode into Bakhmut with the heaviest gear in all of Ukraine is the biggest tell of all."
 
A post script to the above post. This is unconfirmed and you won't find it on twitter yet I don't think, but Tank Girl's brigade have made such rapid progress that Wagner have "regrouped" out of Bakhmut. I think this may be coming directly from her. But, as I say, unconfirmed and I don't know how reliable this info is as it's come in overnight.
 
borolad259 said:
Looks like his Christmas hiatus is over.

"As we have now safely passed the date of when I thought it would all be over it is time to recalculate and move forward.

Winter
It seems like the winter has not been kind to either Ukraine, nor Russia.
Ukraine hoped for an early and cold winter since that would be in their advantage.
It would have given them the advantage back on the battle field and made it possible to do rapid manouvre warfare, giving Ukraine the ability to push forward and retake even more occupied areas.
Also, due to advantage in winter gear winter favours Ukraine, but global warming put a stopper in that.
At best Ukraine will get a single month to push forward on frozen ground, but even that is right now up in the stars.

The Russians on the other hand are turning into the ever popular Russicles, the amount of dead and frost bitten Russians are by now worse than their battlefield losses.
This means that Russia can't even mobilise at the speed of their losses and at the same time create a force for a credible spring offensive.

War production
Russia is by now pretty much at a standstill, with the leadership putting in orders for weapons that can't realistically be built for years to come.
The numbers are brutal, without China entering into the supply chain on behalf of Russia, they will run out of even basic things like rifles and ammunition, and on top of that missiles and artillery shells will be a thing of the past.
Iran, North Korea and Russia does not have enough production capacity to make a dent in the supply chain issue, and neither of Russias supporters are willing to dip into their stockpiles and are only selling surplus production to Russia.

Ukraine is still slowly getting increases in deliveries per monthly basis.
Now the mighty Finnish, Slovak and Czech weapons factories are in full swing producing Soviet era callibres for artillery and small arms.
This is what the US procured and sent to Ukraine now.
How much can they produce? Just in 152mm artillery shells we are talking about 100 000 shells per month. Top that up with another 50 000 122mm artillery shells, and a further 50 000 125mm tank shells and Ukraine are now practically swimming in artillery. On top of that they are getting 100 000155mm... That is a quarter of a million grenades per month, and it is sustainable forever.
Ontop of that they are getting 45 000 MLRS GRAD missiles for their Soviet rocket launchers per month, and around 1500 GMLRS for the Himars...
This is amply enough to grind up Russia to hell and back.

What will permanently swing the balance are the Leopard IIs entering the fray during the spring offensive.
With Russia desperately low on tanks this will be a deal breaker for them. Just a couple of hundred Leopard IIs will rip whatever Russia has left in armour to shreds in a few weeks.

Moscow
We have still not seen the real Putin out and about, all we see are his body doubles.
During the visit to the Tula weapons factory we saw a fourth "Putin" double, I have dubbed him young Putin. He was 10kg lighter than the others, and he jumped unto tanks... Later on he was replaced with Spineproblem Putin for the talking parts. I guess the new Putin is not yet fully trained, or he has the wrong voice.

Prigozhin is desperately trying to be friends with everyone, first he tried with Girkin, and now he is trying to woo Surovikin by suggesting that Surovikin should replace Soyghurt.
Surovikin is obviously not interested in anything that has anything to do with Prigozhin.

Assassins have reached fever pitch in Russia.
Now weapons manufacturers are starting to fall out of first floor windows to their death.
The latest one was the submarine manufacturer Alexander Buzakov who fell to his death with a plastic model of a Lada Submarine shoved up his posterior as a pointed buttplug.

Even Russians are now openly joking about Swan Lake being close.
Another big shift is that "Putin" is now calling it a war and openly pleading for negotiations.
Something that will not happen again until at least another big win has been gained by Ukraine.
I do not expect any negotiations until April or May, unless the leadership is changed.

Russia
Attacks inside Russia are on the increase, both sabotage on factories and railroads and missile strikes deep into Russian territory.
Today Russia had planned to celebrate the Air Defence Day by attacking Ukraine with yet another massive missile barrage.
Instead Ukraine bombarded Kursk Airfield and Engels Airfield causing massive destruction and losses of several pilots.
3 pilots dead, and 4 wounded, just in Engels. This out of the 10 that was prepairing the bombing run.
And it seems like once again the Air Defence was ineffective to the extreme, giving air to another round of this ever popular meme:
"What is Air Defence Doing?"
I do not think that the Russian Air Defence is celebrating much today.

Fires are still an ongoing problem all across Russia due to missing technicians and janitors.
And, it does not help that Russia are mobilising firefighters, policemen and ambulance personell for the frontline.

The Frontline
Over in Bakhmut the Russian army has now lost 30 000 soldiers and a further 100 000 wounded.
All of this to take the city dump in Bakhmut. After celebrating this glorious victory they were pushed out of it again, and have to start all over again...
Bakhmut is the biggetst "Why?" in military history.

Otherwise Ukraine is still forced to sit and eat christmas borstj while shelling the hapless Russicles into oblivion.
It is quite telling that without pushing forward Ukraine is maintaining a Russian casualty rate in excess of 500 dead per day.
The shift in artillery volume from Russian advantage to Ukrainian advantage is by now creating a huge difference in mortality.
As long as Ukraine can keep this up it is just working as a very prolonged staging for the next offensive.

North Korea
It is by now clear that North Korea is trying to aid Russia by causing a bit of a ruccus by flying drones across South Korea.
What is shocking is the poor performance of the South Korean Air Defence, only half of the drones was shot down.
But, on the whole everyone knows that Kims will not attack, and nobody is making a big thing about it.

China
China is either doing the same thing by running a naval fleet into Taiwanese waters, or they are gearing up to attack Taiwan.
I fear the latter.
China is in very dire straits internally, and what better way to divert the masses than a nice juicy war against the arch enemy.
What is still surprising is that they did not help Russia, and does not seem inclined to do so in the future either.
But, as time goes by the risk for an intervention is increasing.
If Xi judges that Taiwan is to risky he might decide to enter the war on the Russian side on the brink of Russias loss.

Conclusion
I missjudged how stubborn Russia is. So, let us from now on judge things that Russia will not give up unless there is shift in management, or Russia is militarily kicked out of Ukraine.

If winter is a complete bust, then the war will not kick off into Ukrainian offensives until April.
But, if winter is indeed coming in the end and the ground freezes, then we will most likely see two offensives in rapid order.

The Russians will try another attack from the North, most people think they will go towards Kyiv. I do not think they will do that, instead I think that they will go towards either Zumy or Kharkiv, with Kharkiv being the strategical choice.
Russia is though not known for being strategic... so, anything can happen really.
This offensive will not include any Belarusians, whatever now the pundits expound upon.
Anyway, this offensive will fare very badly for the Russians.
Lacking heavy weapons, logistics, and the manpower, is not good for offensives against a stronger opponent.
My guess is that they will get about 25km across the border before it ends.

The Ukrainian winter offensive seems ever more likely to be in either Luhansk, or against Bakhmut.
I think the latter since it would be a devastating blow to Russian morale, and it would create the possibility for a flanking manouvre towards Luhansk.
I think that the Ukrainians are saving Zhaporizhzhia and Melitopol for their spring offensive.

Russia will run out of gear and artillery somewhere in March or April, at this point the war will become an even larger joke.
In August the last Russian will be kicked out of every part of Ukraine.
My only question is at what point Ukraine will enter Russia propper, in August or before.

Two things to keep track of Ukraine has been given permission to go into Russia if it is really needed, and Poland have asked permission to enter into the conflict in case another party enters the fray on the Russian side (Belarus)."
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That is excellent info regarding the Ukraine munitions numbers.

I reckon his Russian production numbers will be a reasonable guess, but I expect in terms of basic shells, Russia will have a decent supply and can possibly produce more than expected. It's really a total war situation for those in the Kremlin, even though on the face of it Russia has not been invaded and still holds substantial territory in Ukraine.

It would seem to be madness for Russia to mount another offensive on Kyiv in the spring. You need a huge superiority in men, equipment and logisitical support. Theoretically they could have the men, plus they must have learned the lessons from the farce of the original 'three day' invasion on the logistics front. Learning the lessons doesn't mean, at this stage with the supply issues Russia has, with the lack of well maintained trucks, that those lessons can be put in to practice.

Any invasion would be met be superior firepower and technology from Ukraine. It would be a disaster. That doesn't mean they won't try it. They are in Hail Mary territory as Hitler was when he launched the Ardennes offensive to try to take Antwerp. It was a thousand to one shot, but they did take it.

The other thing that would make it crazy is even if they took Kyiv in a surprise better organised lightning attack, what then? What does it acheive? You have to then hold it. The aim would be to have a stronger negotiating hand, but I just think Ukraine would wait for the front to collapse, which it would quite quickly. It's not like the Russians would have time to build strong defensive fortifications.

While Russia no longer has sufficient advantage in firepower and technology to prosecute an offensive war against Ukraine, a defensive war might be different. The equation is slightly different. A good defensive war is about slowing down the enemy, draining its resources and inflicting casualties. This is what Ukraine did to Russia. Can Russia do the same?

The muddy seasons help. The technological disadvantage is not as important. Mines are a cheap, but very effective way of slowing down an army. Mortars and conventional artillery kill men. Donbass, Crimea and Russia will be hard to Blitzkreig/Thunder road down and win impressive sweeping victories that capture large enemy forces.

The collapse of the Russian economy will be key, but to actually oust Putin and those with his Russian Empire rebuild/expand mindset will require a stark, catastrophic, unmistakeable military defeat to go with it, I reckon.
 
Lefty said:
That is excellent info regarding the Ukraine munitions numbers.

I reckon his Russian production numbers will be a reasonable guess, but I expect in terms of basic shells, Russia will have a decent supply and can possibly produce more than expected. It's really a total war situation for those in the Kremlin, even though on the face of it Russia has not been invaded and still holds substantial territory in Ukraine.

It would seem to be madness for Russia to mount another offensive on Kyiv in the spring. You need a huge superiority in men, equipment and logisitical support. Theoretically they could have the men, plus they must have learned the lessons from the farce of the original 'three day' invasion on the logistics front. Learning the lessons doesn't mean, at this stage with the supply issues Russia has, with the lack of well maintained trucks, that those lessons can be put in to practice.

Any invasion would be met be superior firepower and technology from Ukraine. It would be a disaster. That doesn't mean they won't try it. They are in Hail Mary territory as Hitler was when he launched the Ardennes offensive to try to take Antwerp. It was a thousand to one shot, but they did take it.

The other thing that would make it crazy is even if they took Kyiv in a surprise better organised lightning attack, what then? What does it acheive? You have to then hold it. The aim would be to have a stronger negotiating hand, but I just think Ukraine would wait for the front to collapse, which it would quite quickly. It's not like the Russians would have time to build strong defensive fortifications.

While Russia no longer has sufficient advantage in firepower and technology to prosecute an offensive war against Ukraine, a defensive war might be different. The equation is slightly different. A good defensive war is about slowing down the enemy, draining its resources and inflicting casualties. This is what Ukraine did to Russia. Can Russia do the same?

The muddy seasons help. The technological disadvantage is not as important. Mines are a cheap, but very effective way of slowing down an army. Mortars and conventional artillery kill men. Donbass, Crimea and Russia will be hard to Blitzkreig/Thunder road down and win impressive sweeping victories that capture large enemy forces.

The collapse of the Russian economy will be key, but to actually oust Putin and those with his Russian Empire rebuild/expand mindset will require a stark, catastrophic, unmistakeable military defeat to go with it, I reckon.
Click to expand...

You have to think thermal imaging equipment, on drones, on tanks, will be key moving forward. Ukraine will need to use it's firepower to target defenders, clear them out, then move on to mine clearing. I'm not sure if mine clearing can be done quickly these days by a full military in an operation. It is slow going otherwise.
 
Lefty said:
That is excellent info regarding the Ukraine munitions numbers.

I reckon his Russian production numbers will be a reasonable guess, but I expect in terms of basic shells, Russia will have a decent supply and can possibly produce more than expected. It's really a total war situation for those in the Kremlin, even though on the face of it Russia has not been invaded and still holds substantial territory in Ukraine.

It would seem to be madness for Russia to mount another offensive on Kyiv in the spring. You need a huge superiority in men, equipment and logisitical support. Theoretically they could have the men, plus they must have learned the lessons from the farce of the original 'three day' invasion on the logistics front. Learning the lessons doesn't mean, at this stage with the supply issues Russia has, with the lack of well maintained trucks, that those lessons can be put in to practice.

Any invasion would be met be superior firepower and technology from Ukraine. It would be a disaster. That doesn't mean they won't try it. They are in Hail Mary territory as Hitler was when he launched the Ardennes offensive to try to take Antwerp. It was a thousand to one shot, but they did take it.

The other thing that would make it crazy is even if they took Kyiv in a surprise better organised lightning attack, what then? What does it acheive? You have to then hold it. The aim would be to have a stronger negotiating hand, but I just think Ukraine would wait for the front to collapse, which it would quite quickly. It's not like the Russians would have time to build strong defensive fortifications.

While Russia no longer has sufficient advantage in firepower and technology to prosecute an offensive war against Ukraine, a defensive war might be different. The equation is slightly different. A good defensive war is about slowing down the enemy, draining its resources and inflicting casualties. This is what Ukraine did to Russia. Can Russia do the same?

The muddy seasons help. The technological disadvantage is not as important. Mines are a cheap, but very effective way of slowing down an army. Mortars and conventional artillery kill men. Donbass, Crimea and Russia will be hard to Blitzkreig/Thunder road down and win impressive sweeping victories that capture large enemy forces.

The collapse of the Russian economy will be key, but to actually oust Putin and those with his Russian Empire rebuild/expand mindset will require a stark, catastrophic, unmistakeable military defeat to go with it, I reckon.
Click to expand...
Yes the invaders will surely try and mount a defence of Donbass and Crimea - as they are more or less out of everywhere else. If they are having any 'success' slowing down their defeat then we'd have to hope Ukraine are given more weapons - so that the deaths can stop as soon as possible
 
They have been in Donbas and Crimea longest, so you'd expect some better defensive positions set up compared to Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. That said, I think the Russians can possibly be cut off and starved into surrender in Crimea. Ukraine controls the water flow there now, I think.
 
Well here's one that was on no-one's WTF next in Russia bingo card! Our man just messaged to say that the "St Petersburg Exile Government" (which, after some clarification turned out to be the oblast Duma) has contacted the Swedish foreign ministry to negotiate becoming part of Sweden. Mate is completely flummoxed. Especially given historical emnity. Apparently, for historical reasons it was seen as a better option than Poland or Finland. Apparently even Bildt was speechless for a change.
 
borolad259 said:
Well here's one that was on no-one's WTF next in Russia bingo card! Our man just messaged to say that the "St Petersburg Exile Government" (which, after some clarification turned out to be the oblast Duma) has contacted the Swedish foreign ministry to negotiate becoming part of Sweden. Mate is completely flummoxed. Especially given historical emnity. Apparently, for historical reasons it was seen as a better option than Poland or Finland. Apparently even Bildt was speechless for a change.
Click to expand...
Ok. people are going to twig now for definite :D
 
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