Missive on things bad and very good
"I will start with the bad news, and then go to some very GOOD news.
When I about a year ago started to talk about EU potentially ending up in a world with a hostile US many thought that I was insane. But already with Biden at the helm it was obvious that we had entered a time in history where the relations between the two major Western powers were becoming more strained, it is not all about Trump.
Over the last couple of decades US has changed, and so have we. We have grown up and request a larger spot in the sun compared to before. And at the same time the US has grown insular and less reliant on reality.
It is weird that Europe for the first time in two millennia can be seen as young and vibrant, and the US has become the old man living in a past that never truly existed. It is like a child recognizing that your parent is becoming “vague” with old age and are in need of diapers.
And that brings us right back to Trump.
Greenland
As you know I have pointed out that both Greenland and Canada will be in trouble as soon as Trump takes office, and the same goes for Iceland, Norway and the UK. The reason is simple, natural resources.
Elon Trump wants the natural resources that comes together with the Arctic and are prepared to do a lot to gain those riches.
Nothing is as dangerous as a dying Empire; history has thought us that particular lesson many times. To grapple a hold on the world stage they will turn outwards to hide the rot ongoing at the core of the Roman Empire.
It happened to the Mongols, The British Empire, The Roman Empire, Russia, The Soviet Union, etcetera. And it is now happening to the US. Empires never die quietly it turns out.
Yesterday Don Jr came to Greenland, most likely due to him believing that “powder snow” is in fact cocaine. It was an obvious threat to Greenland, Denmark and the European Union.
Trump is stating that they need Greenland to make US be safe, but the fact is that the US already have an air base in Greenland, so there would be no difference. The only thing that could make that to not be a reality is if the US leaves NATO, ponder that for a moment.
And up until very recently there was practically no Danish soldiers there, and never has there been any other soldiers meandering about, until now. And it was good that we had sent some there, because we scored a point yesterday.
After a quick talk with the Danish and Swedish CinC’s we devised a little plan of our own to make Don Jr feel welcome. Greenland is not big as long as you stay in the capital, so 300 soldiers can be extremely visible if they are told to be milling about wherever he went.
So, wherever he went he saw armed soldiers. We even drove about in a Patria (AFV) for good measure. Don Jr is definitely to coked out to notice subtle hints like that, but he did have with him some Trump Senior advisors, and they noticed it.
So, it was no surprise that El Humpo toned down the military talk somewhat and instead talked about punishing Denmark with sanctions and tariffs if they did not sell Greenland to the US.
The US knows that we are building up a well-trained Nordic Arctic warrior battalion in Greenland consisting of Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish jaeger soldiers. It is obviously not enough to take on a fully blown assault, but it is at the same time enough to make it a very nasty thing to perform in Arctic Freezing waters.
Ponder Omaha Beach but done among icebergs and in water so cold that it is deadly if you even fall into it. Sort of the situation that would create an abundance of black body bags. I have learned that me talking about body bags have reverberated around Mal-a-logos, which was the point all along. The best wars are the ones you do not need to fight.
Do I believe there will be a war? Yes and no. Yes, Elon Trump would do it if they could, and they might work their way there in time. No, wars take time to prepare for, and the US is not exactly near Greenland, and they would need to mount quite a substantial force to perform Omaha Beach on Greenland.
Even with the prodigious US capacity for the logistics of war, it is a tall order to storm beaches against a peer enemy. Especially since there’s a rather hefty chunk of land in the way of the most obvious route, something small called Canada.
It should though be stated that we can’t win a war over Greenland, the US Navy and Air Force is just to powerful and would fairly rapidly assure a victory for the US, but the price would still be quite staggering.
All we have to do is point out the “staggeringness” of it all, and even Elon Trump will figure things out on their own and try other means to grab Greenland. This is why I am ever so happy about El Humpo talking about tariffs and sanctions.
We in the EU can’t win a military conflict over it. But we can most assuredly and comfortably win a Trade War. In that regard we are the ones holding all the trump-cards. EU and the US have previously had two trade wars.
The first was over Boeing/Airbus, and it ended in a draw after many years. The next one was instigated by Trump and ended with a resounding EU victory, and Trump himself having to come and beg for it all to end. Something El Senilo has comfortably forgotten by now.
The difference was that EU in the time between the two trade wars had grown more powerful, and also that we are now the ones regulating world trade. And now we do so even more. So, let us hope that I can say body bags fast and hard enough so that Elon Trump continues down the Trade War path.
Obviously trade wars will hurt us to, in fact it will impact the entire world economy at a rather inopportune time, but it is the preferred option over body bags. To everyone’s surprise I do hate wars and prefer to win them by not having to have them.
And that brings us briefly to Canada. What the hell are they doing? This was the worst possible moment to have an internal power struggle, eh. I just hope that they snap out of this bout of silliness quickly.
Ukraine
Russia is now in definite trouble on the battlefield. Not only is Tank Girl chugging along taking village after village without much resistance due to the lack of Russian reserves.
Zyrskyi discovered that there was a gaping hole in the Russian line near Kupyansk and went for it, this caused a large chuck of the Russian frontline to crumble. This somewhat unexpected breakthrough is causing a huge headache for Russia.
It is one thing to plug up one hole in your defence lines, it is a completely different thing to plug up two holes with your limited resources. Especially since both of the holes happened due to you not having enough soldiers to staff the defence lines.
Yesterday I wrote that Russia would have to thin out their lines again and move out what reserves they might have to try to contain the situation in Kursk, but now they will have to divide up those reserves (if existing even), and thin out twice as much.
And if they do that it is ever so likely that they will create new “thin spots” for Ukraine to exploit. A month ago, Russia could have called off their offensives and sat down and been stubborn in a defensive posture behind their lines, but this is no longer enough to hold the line.
Russia desperately needs around 100K soldiers and more equipment to be able to hold their own and continue to push Ukraine out of Russia. And that figure still includes stopping all other offensives. If they wish to continue offending they need close to 300K more soldiers.
Yes, Russia can probably find 100K soldiers in a couple of months, but not 300K. Those days are over when Russia could call up those numbers. But even a couple of months of thin lines will be painful for Russia.
And one thing is clear, the war is run by the bloodthirsty bunker-dwarf in Kremlin, and he is not about to stop his pointless offensives just due to not having enough soldiers to offend with. So, expect the Russian problems to continue for the next couple of months, or even longer.
An obvious answer would be to call the Kim’s and beg for more soldiers, but it is one thing to ask for 12 000 soldiers compared to asking for 120 000 soldiers. And the Kim’s have by now most likely figured out that even that number would not be enough to solve the problem indefinitely.
Also, the Russian rail-network is now in such a bad state that one could argue that the 120 000 North Korean solution is out of the question since it would take almost a year to haul all of them all the way to Ukraine.
No, all we need to do now is to keep our eyes on the target and keep on trucking. If we do that Russia will collapse in 2025. And in that regard it seems like Christmas has arrived.
Transnistria
The Moldavian Prime Minister Dorian Recean has formally requested that Transnistria peacefully returns to Moldova, and that the Russian troops there withdraws.
With the Transnistrian economy totally wrecked, and them being without heat, electricity, water and the ability to heat even food, the first part is likely to happen.
The second part is trickier. Yes, I do believe that at this point Russia would very much like to have 2 200 soldiers to deploy on the battlefield in Ukraine/Russia. Problem is the logistics of it. It would sort of require that Ukraine admits them to be flown out, and that is not entirely certain at this point.
One alternative would be if we flew them out in a disarmed state from either Moldova or Romania, but that is also a tad tricky. And I would not be entirely certain that said Russians even would like to be flown anywhere at this point in time.
The soldiers in Transnistria are professional soldiers, probably the last ones Russia has, and they are amply aware of the fact that they would be dead within weeks in fruitless meatwave attacks. We might after all end up with 2 200 Refuseniks on our hands, but the bonus of that is obviously that they will not end up fighting in Ukraine. There is always that.
The PM knows that the Moldovan citizens in Transnistria are more than willing to give up at this point, they know that things is not going to get better, and that Russia is no longer able to come and bail them out.
Even their political and oligarch leadership knows it. Problem is that the leadership are all criminals and murderers, so there is the problem of what to do with them, without guarantees of immunity they will not voluntarily give up. But giving that immunity would also be problematic.
Recean’s statement was a request for now, but soon enough it will turn into a call for surrender. They are under siege, and they know it, and when they become weak enough there will be an intervention. They also know this.
Over the next 48 hours they can try to strike a deal, albeit a s***y one. After that it will be time for ultimatums and that stuff.
For Moldova it will mean that their bleeding boil will be lanced, and that they can become an EU member faster, and for EU it means that the totally lawless robber state that is Transnistria is permanently fixed.
And for Ukraine it will make a huge difference, a true Christmas present. 50 000 soldiers for the front, and most likely some 5 million shells of Soviet nick to dump on Russians*. And for the ordinary Transnistrians it means a more positive future filled with heat and electricity.
Obviously it might end up with me going to Chisinau in Moldova to direct things more closely, even though the local commander is good enough to do it on his own, but I sort of like to butt in when there is a possible fight coming up, at least briefly.
Anyway, Christmas is coming in the shape of a Stalinist hellscape named Transnistria, how very fitting.
*How bad would this be for Russia? Well, pretty much something that they can’t take at this point in time. An entire Group plus an almost endless supply of shells. At this point in time in the war, that would change things so much that Russia would not be able to withstand it.
Ukraine has a lot of idle old Soviet artillery that they are not using since they do not have enough shells of that type. Now imagine Ukraine rolling up that artillery to Pokrovsk, then dump let us say 1 million shells on the Russian troops there, and in goes those 50K fresh soldiers to mop up.
Russia no longer has what it would take to stop such an onslaught. You see my point. "
bfpg.co.uk
Asking the 'colonials' what they thought of the British Empires logic is an easier way to draw the comparison rather than relying on our memories of Clive of India from GCSE history...
