Apologies for radio silence. Up in the far norther wilderness .... and General Grumpyasfeck has been rather busy, as the last few days of death and destruction tallies will testify.
So herewith a long update.
"Tired Bones & Records
My bones are tired, this goes beyond being just tired, it is a tiredness that is set deep in my bones, a tiredness that will take weeks to get out of the body. I have at this point ran the show for two weeks almost alone.
First, I had sub commander problems, after that things improved as I got my little major, but he is not yet “there” as a commander and need assistance. Now I have Tank Girl back, but she is still not in any shape to take up command.
At least she can advice Little Major on things for a few hours while he does the legwork to give me some sleep, but for now it is all on my head and shoulders. And to compound the problem, my Ukrainian is not good enough, and that is causing other problems.
Now that I have moaned a bit, time to do a bit of frontlines walk and some news, things are happening, both good and bad, but first that frontline walk.
Fronts
Let me start with the bad news. Vuhledar has to all points and purposes fallen, there’s just a small unit left that is retarding the Russian advance, giving the main troops time to leg it. The Town was never it, the important part was the mine, and when that fell the town of Vuhledar was doomed.
And that little derriere-guard is probably legging it out tonight before they get encircled. It was a valiant fight, one of the costliest for Russia in Ukraine.
Over the next few weeks Russia will get quite a bit of land, Vuhledar was the lock for the region. And on top of that we are now very far away from being able to cut into Donetsk City or Mariupol. I agree with Tank Girl, the largest mistake from the Ukrainian side of the war was ordering her out of the Ramparts.
But, crying over spilled milk is a game we do not have time for, better to not repeat mistakes, after all the general that caused Ukraine’s problems is now safely ensconced in London.
Anyway, the advancing Russians will be stopped as they come out of those big empty fields, and now it will be they who are at the **** end of a very deadly logistics chain, same that is now giving them troubles on the approach to Pokrovsk.
Now for the part that is neither good, nor bad, the part that just is. All of the other frontlines in Ukraine are now stable with only minor movements on both sides. This has been caused by the war’s most intensive fighting being in my neck of the woods.
Yes, I know that the soldiers in Pokrovsk are complaining, but they are holding, same goes for Toretsk, if anything they are increasing the grey zone of sorts as drones expertly create buffer zones.
I guess this is good news after all, and that I am just glum from being so tired.
Now for Kursk. As you know I am now fighting 1/5th of the Russian army. At the same time, I have to rotate units bringing in fresh ones to replace the initial units like the 82nd that are like me with tired bones.
I am also as best I can pulling in even more units, trying to force Russia to pull out even more forces out of Ukraine. It is a battle like none other in Ukraine. Both sides are fighting very differently, using completely different rulebooks. We are doing full on combat manoeuvre warfare with combined arms units, while the enemy is desperately trying to lock us down with trenches.
Problem is that if they construct a defence we run around, or attack somewhere completely different. But, at the same time we can’t break through their main lines now. But with the ordinance pendulum slowly swinging our way each day, things are breaking at the Russian side.
We are daily setting new records in improving Russians, blowing up artillery, and boofing those BMP/BTRs and tanks. Also, large numbers of other vehicles are also being blown up. We may be fighting 1/5th of the Russian army, but half of all destruction is caused here in Kursk.
Every 8 days we have killed a full Brigades worth of Russians, and every two days a mechanised Brigades worth of equipment, just in Kursk. No battle has been bloodier since WWII and the First Battle of Kursk.
Ponder that for a while, and the trajectory is still continuing upwards.
As you know we pulled out of the Seym pocket for now, instead we hold those 3 Roads into Russia.
The breakout from Korenevo/Seym is now fully contained, at least for now, and instead we are moving towards Lgov and that all important road. If I achieve it prior to onset of Rasputitsa we can do all sorts of mischief, if not it is possible that we will never be able to take it.
Another good side is that I have received more artillery from inside of Ukraine from frontline sections that are quiet, and that Ukraine itself is going to receive more arty.
My bones may be tired, but we swing harder and harder as we wait for the bell to toll for the break, with a bit of luck I can take at least a day off come weekend as Tank Girl grows stronger. She just needs some fattening up now to get her stamina back, and just the company is valuable.
Momsie et al
As Momsie was here in Ukraine she left with a small partying gift, 38.5 Billion Euro for weapons purchases from those nice shiny factories.
Just as an example, EU is building 9 000 Infantry Fighting Vehicles and Armoured Personnel Carriers as we speak, 2 400 of those are the heavy stuff like Lynx and CV90’s. This is more than the total current Russian inventory, and we are here talking about kickarse state of the art stuff.
2 500 artillery systems of the 155mm type is being built, and Air Defence Systems are rolling off production lines, spanning from pricy SAMP/Ts and IRIS-Ts, to shortrange missile systems that are fairly cheap, all the way down to the ever more popular radar controlled barrel air defence perfect for dedroning night skies.
And so on and so on. Obviously, it will take time for all of this to be built, but the trend is clear, we are getting stronger and stronger while Russia is getting weaker. Obviously, all of this will not go to Ukraine, some are going to the European Armies and the EUEDF.
This is the 2023 Milspend Map. There is a lot to learn from this map so let us discuss this one. The first and most obvious one is that we in 2023 lagged behind the US by quite a margin, not even EU and China put together can match the US, heck not even if we include Russia we spend as much.
Superpowerhood does not come cheap is the obvious answer here. Next lesson is that we are outspending Russia 4 to 1, and the only reason we are not able to pound Russia to **** on our own are those huge Soviet Stocks of arms.
We can now outproduce Russia comfortably, but Russia still has that stockpile advantage, but that will soon enough change into us having the stockpile advantage, which in and of itself is an absurd thought for an old cold war horse with tired bones.
In 2023 China and EU was on par both in spending and in stockpiles, but in 2024 EU jogged ahead of the Panda-state. China did not even really increase spending for 2024, while we are now beyond 300 billion in spending, and set to reach 350 billion in 2025.
All things being equal we should not need to have a larger army, nor a higher spending rate than China. After all, neither of us are especially aggressive as “nations” go, and both of us tend to think with our wallets, a war against an equal enemy is just too costly.
And, neither side have enough stockpiles to win a war against the other, I know this might sound weird, but it is true. To top that off, neither side have enough consumables and ammo to win over the other.
China does though have one advantage that we need to offset, and that is that they have a definite upper hand in the population game, so we need to offset that with having more “stuffs” than they do.
So far EU have spent 300 billion Euro and some change on the war in Ukraine, 200 billion of those are for arms and factories to produce arms, and 100 billion are for keeping the Ukrainian economy floating.
US has spent 90 billion USD, whereas 48 billion USD are for arms. People in Europe are grumping quite a bit about this, but I am of the opinion that it is time that we pull our own weight and take care of our own security.
My gripe is more about the US being so all over the place with things in relation to deliveries and package delays. A steadier approach had been better and might have saved Avdiivka.
My point is that we will win this war, and sooner than most think. But the victory will probably not be won on the battlefield as such, it will though be won by an ever-increasing cost for Russia to even hold on or survive.
The victory will come somewhere between November 2024 or November 2025, and a large part of it will be due to that grinding at the battlefield. The loss of 3 Brigades worth of equipment and one Brigades worth of soldiers each week in Kursk alone is just not sustainable for Russia and remember that the loss rate is double if we count their losses in Ukraine proper.
No, victory is coming, questions is just where and when it will arrive.
China
There’s a reason I have been harping so much about China for the last two years. I see China as one of 3 things that can crush Russia and give Ukraine the win. The other two are a coup/civil war due to economic collapse, or Russia breaking up due to economic collapse and weakness, or an unholy combo of these things.
Quietly with very few people noticing, well except for some very sad Russians, have noticed that China has stopped allowing Russian Citizens to exchange money in China.
Oh yes, a Russian can still enter into China, but his bank card will not work, nor is he able to exchange Ruble into Yuan. What is new is that China is no longer allowing Russians to exchange dollars or Euro into Yuan.
It is a very esoteric way to make it clear that Russians are no longer welcome in China. It is clearly a way to empty out China of Russian citizens. And I probably do not need to point out that it is advantageous of kicking out citizens from a country you are about to attack prior to the attack.
Along the border between China and Outer Manchuria the buildup of consumables and ordinance is continuing full swing, and now winter clothing is being issued and vehicles painted in white/grey patterns, this is new.
China could probably already go, but it is prudent to build up as much stores as possible. And as per usual, the last thing that will arrive are large stores of whole blood, if you read about that arriving, then you are days away from the attack. Heck, even Russia brought up whole blood.
Before that the mobile crematoriums and military hospitals will arrive.
Normally before a war you have wartime propaganda ramping up the population into a fever pitch. That is unlikely in this case. There will just be a message in the morning news in China that the Peoples Liberation Army have started operations to return Manchuria to the bosom of China and the Party from The Eternal Enemy.
Or, a message that the Republic of Outer Manchuria has requested that the Peoples Liberation Army come and restore public order and stop starvation, or some such. Anyway, there will be no rhetoric in advance, China does not need any such thing.
Anyway… time for a nap for my tired bones. "
relevant and urgent.
www.lbc.co.uk
