The end?

Who needs technology:

just watched a vid of the UKS using Thermite loaded into Fanta bottles and coke tins, using them with devastating results. Really surprised that Vlad the Impaler has not called foul over its usage. Seemed to using it against tanks etc. Very similar to napalm but not as severe.
 
Norfolkred1 said:
Who needs technology:

just watched a vid of the UKS using Thermite loaded into Fanta bottles and coke tins, using them with devastating results. Really surprised that Vlad the Impaler has not called foul over its usage. Seemed to using it against tanks etc. Very similar to napalm but not as severe.
Click to expand...
Vlad's lads already been dropping chemical cocktails though I did read they are using some Thermite now also.

Apparently - according to some via Reddit - Ruskies having to deliver water to Klischiivka, by drone to their orcs as supply routes, compromised.. shame that..

& the Russian propaganda movie in Canada has been pulled - fearing unrest, maybe they've just realised how the RT propaganda machine works & that they've been duped.. maybe..
 
So, the NATO permission to use long range missiles has led to a predictable response from Putin.
My worry, from the very start, was that this war could escalate to an all out war between Russia and NATO. We do seem to be creeping, inch by inch, towards a NATO/Russian war.
NATO is only allowing these weapons (supervised by US 'Technicians') to be used against military sites etc. What if there are a few 'strays' that land in Moscow? Then what?

From what we have read on here, the coming cold weather is going to cause misery in Russia with all of the damage to their energy plants.
If Putin is cornered and feels pressure from within Russia after these long range weapons do their work, what is he capable of doing?

If he used tactical nukes or even used nukes on Russian territory taken by Ukraine, is it right to say that everybody just stops what they're doing and invades Russia to take control? This includes NATO and China?
 
MoggasDog said:
So, the NATO permission to use long range missiles has led to a predictable response from Putin.
My worry, from the very start, was that this war could escalate to an all out war between Russia and NATO. We do seem to be creeping, inch by inch, towards a NATO/Russian war.
NATO is only allowing these weapons (supervised by US 'Technicians') to be used against military sites etc. What if there are a few 'strays' that land in Moscow? Then what?

From what we have read on here, the coming cold weather is going to cause misery in Russia with all of the damage to their energy plants.
If Putin is cornered and feels pressure from within Russia after these long range weapons do their work, what is he capable of doing?

If he used tactical nukes or even used nukes on Russian territory taken by Ukraine, is it right to say that everybody just stops what they're doing and invades Russia to take control? This includes NATO and China?
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From the start I've thought China is the regime that can put pressure on VP to end his empiric fantasy.. either them or an internal Ruskie coup - I'm sure VP has all his most loyal sycophants close & keeps everyone else at tables length..

Regardless of what happens in the near future Europe, as a continent ( not EU ) - regardless of who wins the US election - has changed direction & will be countering Russian aggression until they change their world view.. & obviously a leader in charge that isn't a raving loon..
 
BobUpnDown said:
From the start I've thought China is the regime that can put pressure on VP to end his empiric fantasy.. either them or an internal Ruskie coup - I'm sure VP has all his most loyal sycophants close & keeps everyone else at tables length..

Regardless of what happens in the near future Europe, as a continent ( not EU ) - regardless of who wins the US election - has changed direction & will be countering Russian aggression until they change their world view.. & obviously a leader in charge that isn't a raving loon..
Click to expand...

On the subject of China.... some latest news factual (for those that still think China is Russia's friend, despite making it impossible for Russia to do business with Chinese banks etc)...
And also some "speculation" about what they might be up to...

"Chinese Actions
This one will be brief since I am hyper busy today. I started writing it on the train in to Poland, and after being offered a breakfast consisting of the polish delicacy of Golonka (pork knuckle) and coffee I am now very hungry and watching soldiers mock-bonk each other.
Th*r became growly, so my aide-de-camp has meandered off hunting for a McDonalds or something. You do not want a hangry giant Swede around, well two hangry Swedes to be honest.
Anyway, I am now going to eat some.

Chinese Security Edict
China has issued a Security Edict banning Chinese companies from building production facilities in Russia.
This is extraordinary uncommon, normally instructions like this either come from the Party or from one of the economic departments in China. Nobody has ever seen anything like it coming out as a Security Edict.
This means that from now on it is treason to build a production facility in Russia, and the punishment will be a rapid piece of lead entering the brain.
One can only ponder why building factories in Russia is all of a sudden, a matter of state security in China, something is telling me that it is not good news for Russia.

Chinese Map Season
On Chinese Maps a chunk of river and oceanic Islands are all of a sudden marked as inside China, and Manchuria is marked as “Traditional Chinese Land” in the same manner as Taiwan is.
Here it is good to remember that when China last changed their maps, it included half of a border island in a river, a few weeks later China marched in and took the island, that happened last year.

Chinese Troop Reallocations
China has always had a large troop contingent on their Russian border. This harks back all the way to Mao and Stalin having opinions, and since the Sino-Russian War it has been dogmatic on both sides to hold large forces there.
And the number of Chinese forces has increased during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. But, as always, troops are not always equal, and what forces are present are more important than numbers.
Previously China held about 1.2 million men towards Russia, but the bulk of it was border troops, with C and B line troops as backup. This is a typical mix to hold and defend a border. Albeit having 1.2 million of them is best described as overkill.
What is interesting is that China has reallocated troops, and the numbers have gone down. The C and B line troops are gone, and so are most of the border guards.
Instead, China has over the last three months brought in their much more limited number of A line troops from holding areas near Taiwan and from the Indian border.
And instead of the oodles of Soviet/Mao era junk equipment they now sprout the latest Chinese military tech. Same goes for their air force, gone are the legacy aircraft, and now their homebuilt Gen 5ish aircraft have taken up position.
The total number is now 800K, with 400K being A-troops, the lot that they have. The rest are border guards only.
It may seem counter-intuitive to draw down the number of troops to achieve an offensive posture, but it is common practice. You just do not want a lot of inexperienced numbnuts ambling about being in the way as you prep for something, and especially if you are about to jump up to a border for an incursion.
This means that we are seeing exactly what I would expect to see prior to an invasion of Russia by China.
So, what is speaking against China doing it? The time of the year. If it was May or June, I would say that China would probably go ahead soon enough.
But, doing so in September would be awkward, and limit the success rate. The weather would increase the likelihood of getting bogged down and Russia having time to bring in their army.
I have been advocating for quite some time that the Chinese Army is not up to our standards of combat readiness, and I think what we are seeing is an effect of this. I think that China needs up towards 6 months to get ready for something big.
This is also coincidentally why India wins every single border-spat with China. They show up before China can show up, and when finally the Chinese start to arrive they get thrashed by the well dug-down Indians.
This means that China will be more likely to attack, if they choose to do so, during the winter months of January and February, or that they will even need to wait for May/June 2025.

Chinese Signs
Neither the Chinese from the Taiwan Camp or Indian Border are well versed with the Russo- Chinese Border conditions and the style of fighting that would necessitate. They have either trained for “Marines” style attacks, or for Mountain fights.
On top of that Chinese doctrine states that the PLA will perform exercises prior to doing offensive operations to bring up the combat effectiveness of their troops. There are benefits and disadvantages to this, your troops will be more ready, but at the same time you are telegraphing to your enemy what you are about to do.
We have seen this again and again towards Taiwan before them becoming more threatening, and against India before they attempt attacks there. Russia has the same fallacy, they performed massive exercises prior to the attack on Ukraine.
Western Armies train constantly, and we do our training beforehand in similar conditions in far away places in the West. This means that we are always having units on hand ready to go for almost any likely scenario.
Anyway, when you start seeing those A-troops move out for big exercises, then a potential offensive is about 4-6 weeks away.
Obviously, China could perform a more limited action again and take a few river Islands, but for that they only needed their crappier units, after all Russia is otherwise being occupied (Kursk).
Taking Oceanic Islands would be more problematic for China, that would require a large-scale naval operation, and Russia has a formidable Navy of legacy Soviet ships with a sprinkling of more modern stuff.
This would require China to bring in the bulk of their navy, and that is by not even a long-shot ready for a war with a peer-navy, whatever now the US is stating. This is coincidentally why China has not attacked Taiwan.
So, China would need to perform very large naval exercises first to get stuff ready. It is probably the only thing that Russia could actually win, or at least push to a draw, against China. Obviously, China knows this very well.
Why now then is Taiwan at risk from China if their navy sucks? Because our navies are way to far away to reach Taiwan in time. Russia on the other hand has a huge navy right on the doorstep of China.

Conclusion
It is my belief that China is now gearing up towards taking some nibbly bits out of Russia. Problem is guesstimating what parts they will nibble on.
Riverine Islands is one likely thing. But it would be a giveaway and might even wake up Russia enough to go home from their favourite pastime of being occupied by Ukraine, and meander over to their Chinese border, and if they arrive in time the moment of opportunity is just gone for China.
Yes, Russia may suck majorly in Ukraine, but that is against the Ukrainian army that does not suck. The Chinese army we know to suck already, the Indians have proven that time and again.
To be quite honest, I am not so sure that China would be able to win a Sino-Russian Suckfest, at least not without paying a very hefty price. At best they would amble out victorious, but with a huge chunk of their best army mauled, and their fleet would probably also be somewhat a thing of the past.
Russia would obviously not fair much better, especially after Ukraine having mauled them already.
No, China would be stupid to telegraph a bigger operation by going after more riverine islands in the stream.
Going after Oceanic Islands is even more stupid for the same reasons, and with the added negative effect of not even being assured as a win by the Chinese Navy. It is even likely that they
would get trashed. I have this at an almost zero probability, unless the Chinese decide to go for Russian levels of stupidity.
Instead, I bet that their main goal is Outer Manchuria. Just by crossing the rivers into Russia they would gain the riverine islands by default and Russia is unlikely to have their army in place before this happens.
After all, Putin truly want to continue his self-immolation in Donetsk, and to be invaded up the wazoo in Kursk and other Oblasts of interest. No, without a Chinese attack prior to the big one, Russia will not be there.
That means that China can take the safer land-route to take those Russian naval bases, and yeet the Russian navy effectively. Obviously, this would afterwards give them said oceanic islands for free.
Only problem is that Japan might take those oceanic islands into “protective custody”, after all they used to be Japanese and various points in time. If that happens China will just redraw their maps again while muttering “shtool” in Mandarin and do a whole lot of nothing about it.
I am once again reminded about the Russian Military Doctrine for the Far East. It was co-written by Stalin and Zhukov. It was never changed up until Vladimir Spiridonovich Putin decided to be an utter imbecile.
It was a simple enough, and understandable enough, it was also realistic and sensible, as doctrines go. “Never use more than half of the Soviet Red Army in Offensive operations against The West, or in any other direction, and never move the Eastern and Far Eastern Military Districts Armies from the border with China”.
And even in defence it was only allowed to use those armies if Moscow was threatened directly with being occupied.
Stalin was a maniac, but he understood well enough that if those armies was moved away, then China would walk up and take the Far East away from the Soviet Union.
Instead, the master-strategist known as Putin did exactly all of this, against the wisdom of the best general so far in history, and against the direct orders of his personal hero, Stalin.
The Punderati is extolling on China wanting to take Siberia, but that is not going to happen, at least not this time around. Siberia is close enough that Russia can defend it. And, China might even run into some considerable troubles with the West over that since we do not want a China with those resources.
No, China want Outer Manchuria back. That would give them a hefty chunk of vital land. It would also remove that Russian fleet and give him more naval bases and trading ports. It would also give China control over the Trans-Siberian and the Baikal-Amur-Mainline (BAM), basically giving China their much vaunted “Silkroad”.
It will be comparatively cheap, and Xi would become Xi the Great, and revered on the level of Mao for as long as China remains as a country. Even if it becomes democratic, they will still think of him along the lines of “Xi the Great returned Manchuria to our lands, even though he was somewhat problematic as a leader”. "
 
You will also start to see evidence on xitter and youtube etc regarding what he wrote about yesterday ... Tank Girl's response to the Russian counter offensives in Kursk. Though, as he said, the Ukrainian side will be, for opsec reasons, quiet.
 
Here's an analogy I thought up while daydreaming on the way to work today.

Putin reminds me of one of those jealous blokes who loses the girl he was in love with.

Instead of parting ways and letting her get on with her life, he refuses to acknowledge that she doesn't love him anymore and allows bitterness, resentment and jealousy to control his thoughts.

When he finds out she's flirting with a bunch of blokes, he attacks her in a jealous rage, in an attempt to not only punish her, but to somehow win her back.

But the crazy thing is that even if he does 'win her back', she will hate and despise him forever. So she, and her suitors, will turn on him, until he is either destroyed, or at least goes away.

Pretty sure this kind of tragedy has been played out a million times before, and of course it never ends well.
 
Are we officially off to war with Russia then ? Seems to be he mood all over the papers etc. Was starmers visit to US planned or a snap visit
 
Littlefella68 said:
Are we officially off to war with Russia then ? Seems to be he mood all over the papers etc. Was starmers visit to US planned or a snap visit
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I wouldn't quite put it that way. Put it this way, Putin and his mob gang have gradually tried the patience of the hardiest fence sitters.

To be fair, the UK has been pretty steadfast from the beginning. And UK Storm Shadows have already been used to good effect.

Bombing schools and hospitals was a thicko move by Russia.

Effectively The EU plus "Friend" offered Putin a way out. He didn't take it. So now gloves are removed.
 
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