The end?

From yesterday ... partially redacted/edited.

"Lately there have been a lot of rainfall over the Kharkiv area, causing quite a bit of flooding.
This has caused it to become a very muddy slog for both sides.

The Lyptsi Boob has shrunk somewhat from the western side, this is significant since the Russians had an entire dam between them and the Ukrainians, but Tank Girl managed to drive in a wedge along the dam, from this she can later on expand Eastwards.

To drive in this wedge she went into Russia, and crossed the river via a Russian Bridge.
Very nice of them to let her use it.
Also in Hlybkove there is progress.

If we look to the Vovchansk Boob the newly arrived 6th army wormed their way back inside into Vovchansk, and they are trying their best to supply, or even hook up to those that refused to give up in the aggregate plant.
There is though a problem for the Russian 6th army.

The units that was sent in to connect with the aggregate group failed with connecting to the aggregatians.
Instead they in turn got looped off in a pocket.
So, we have a world first.
A pocketed pocket trying to connect with an already pocketed pocket.

The Russian 6th army utilised the rain storms to worm their way in since that stopped the drones from flying, and that in turn hindered artillery spotting, and the airforce could not fly missions either.
Now that the weather has improved the drones started to buzz about again, and the artillery and glidebombs are arriving in great numbers.

To make things even more s***y for the Russians here, Tank Girl has acheved operational control 24/7 (barring rainstorms) of the the entire boob using artillery and recon drones, this means that everything going in and out is targetted.
So, in a sense of it we have have an even greater pocket behind the two forlorn front pockets.

Especially the glide bombs are proving to be extremely effective, and there are now dozens of bombing missions over just the Vovchansk boob.
And there further over Lyptsi, and not even talking about the rest of the front, if there's a hardened target a glide bomb is zonkering it momentarily.

Normally an SU-24 can carry 2 to 8 of these depending on the type and size.
This means that the numbers of bomb-arrivals does not add up any longer with the number of available delivery platforms.
Someone seems to be cheating.

We are waiting for confirmations of the potential boofing of the S-500 system in Crimea, weather have not been especially cooperative in this regard.

At the same time the area of operations have been extended out from Crimea proper into Rostov and the Autonomous Republic of Adygea.
Due to the lack of remaining high-value targets in Crimea it is prudent to extend into the neighbouring Oblasts to clear out air defence systems and oil terminals and depots there.

Rostov and Adygea are rich in depots and logistics for the Russian army, and by taking it out the so called Southern Gateway into Ukraine will loose in importance, and further weaken Russia in Crimea.

Kerch Bridge
There has been a development in regards of the bridge that is a bit surprising, at least if you are not well versed in high powered politics.

From a purely military point it makes sense to dunk the bridge in the water now.
Short term this would be beneficial for taking Crimea back.
But, if you ever plan to meander over into Rostov and beyond, downing it would be somewhat stupid.
Ukraine did not have any such plans previously.

For "reasons" it might be useful.
First part is that this used to be Ukraine before Lenin stole this part from Ukraine, same as with Bilhorod.
Secondly, having Russia cast out of the Black Sea forever is godly gospel to both Ukraine and EU.
Thirdly, having all of the East-West goods-traffic rumbling through Ukraine would make it into the nexus of literally everything, the economic potential longterm is nothing but astounding.

Obviously all of this takes some pondering on Ukraines behalf.
There's 3 alternatives.
1. Leave the bridges be.
2. Take them out in such a manner that they can be repaired rapidly. Sort of the situation now since the bridges are weakened to the point of not being really useful.
3. Take them out fully, and repair them later if needed.

For now things are left as they are, if nothing else, it leaves Russia guessing as much as everyone else about their bridge.
So, for the time being, expect many booms in Rostov."


over 100 drones did actualy head for those targets around Rostov, Crimea etc last night.
Just caught up with this weeks Substack from OBrian and Bielieskov & it almost line by line supports the Sneaky Swedes news from the front and the conference buffet.

Watching that graphic footage cannot be good for you.

No, in a way it really isn't. But these are uncomfortable truths we have to live with if mobsters are going to be defeated.

An instance why. You may have seen the footage on xitter of terrified Russian tourists (yes) on a Crimean beach.

"S-500 Fuckup
As mentioned we want to study the system as much as possible before we send it to the Air Defense Heavens.
This time around it was decided that we should use ATACMS on "nearby" targets.
We knew that it was located so that it could defend the Sevastopol area, so 5 ATACMS was sent towards 5 targets in the Sevastopol area.

Remember that Russia is claiming that the S-500 is the first system in the world designed to take down ballistic missiles?
Earlier on we learned that the Patriot could do that well enough, in fact it could even take out the Russian hypersonic missiles that was supposedly impervious to intercept with the PAC-3 interceptors.

We learned today that the Radar unit of the S-500 can indeed spot and track ballistic missiles.
We also learned that the missiles are not good enough to take down ATACMS.
It ended up in a disaster for Russia with a lot of civilian casualties.
We also learned that Russians are incredibly thoughtless and stupid.

The first wave of Russian holliday goers have arrived in Crimea.
So, the beaches are rampacked with frolicking Russian families.

An interceptor missile going for an incoming ATACMS was not fast enough and exploded behind it as it was going for the communication headquarter in Sevastopol, the missile continued merrily to the target.
But, the tungsten cubes from the interceptor rained down death and destruction on the Russian beach families.
We are talking about 10 000 tungsten cubes moving at bullet speeds.

I will say that going to a war zone to tourist on a beach is something so stupid that it is almost incredible, and how the Russian government can allow it in a location where drones and missiles smack down on a daily basis is beyond me.
Intead they do not even close down the beaches close to targets.

According to Russian sources more than 100 civilians was injured in the barrage, and 3 died.
Two of the dead according to the Russian sources was children.
I saw videos, I know the effect of those tungsten cubes, I do not doubt the Russian figures as such.

Is anyone at fault?
Yeah, the Russian government, they failed their citizens and allowed them into harms way.
I know how hard Ukraine attempts to keep civilians safe, and then Russia does this to their own citizens.
Heck, they do not even issue air defense warnings to civilians."

Let's just say that Ukraine's policy here has changed as a result.

"History are filled with names of daring raids by special forces, names like St Nazaire and Entebbe are well known due to daring raids of different styles and targets.
They are places catching the imagination of youngsters due to their sheer bravadery.
Two nights ago a new name got into the hallowed halls of fame.

For more than a year teams from SOG, Finnish Jägers and British SBS (Special Boat Service), have been training Ukrainian Marine Commando's.
The training have been so hard that only 1/3rd of them graduate, the rest have been relegated to regular Marines, or gotten injured or died.

Even though the rate of training attrition has been so high, Ukraine now have 1 complete Marine Commando Battalion, with the second one finalising training in Finland under command of the husband of Thor.
This means that Ukraine not only have some of the finest Marine Commandos to have ever existed, they have more than any other country on Earth.
And, it was time for them to have their final exam, I live fire operations into the belly of the beast.

Outside of Krasnodar in Krasnodar Krai in Rostov Oblast was a huge facility for storing Shaheed's, launching Shaheed's and training Shaheed operators.

In cooperation with the Ukrainian Navy they travelled across the Black Sea, stormed the beaches in Krasnodar Krai, fought their way through 10km of land to the Shaheed Facility, took it out, fought their way back, and returned.
Hundreds of Shaheeds was destroyed, close to 100 Shaheed operators and technicians was killed, and the launching ramps destroyed.

Now, let me be the first to point out that this could as well have been achieved with a couple of well placed missiles, or a dozen or so drones, and that would have saved lives and injured Commandos.
Normally this is what would have been done.

No, this was a message to Russia, a very stark warning.
If Ukraine can pull of such a massive undertaking and get away with it... nothing is safe in Russia from a Commando Raid.
After all, not far away lies Sochii.
It could as well have been the HQ in Rostov that was stormed.

It thought the lesson to Russia that Russia itself is not safe, that nobody and nothing is safe, from now on.
It will force Russia to use far more troops to safeguard their installations in Russia, their leaders, their commanders, etcetera.
Troops that they can't afford to spare.
It spread fear inside Russia.

The secondary effect is that the 1st Marine Commando Battalion now know how good they are, and that they can pull off anything with the level of training that they have.
The same goes for the soon to be minted 2nd Marine Commando's.
Now when they are called upon to perform their tasks, they know that they can do it, and that for a Special Operations Force is crucial.
After all, this was just a warmup for what is coming soon enough for all of them."

Russia is having one of its periodic hissy fits/tantrums and is hurling missliles and drones General Cherrycola's way, so he's in the basement now.
Some big hits going down in Crimea. Some of the good accounts can’t keep up 🤗

If all went to plan, the S500 is what went boom above (taken out by hell class weapons). Also the Russian NIP-16 space tracking and communication center in Vitino, Crimea. Plus follow up with ATACMS at Saky, Evpatoria, Gvardiyske, Novofedorivka, Novoozerne, Chornomorske.

I believe Russian telegram channels are awash with tears.

Though he says Odesa took a fair few hits last night. Our correspondent has just emerged from the basement.
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Unrest in Georgia now, as well as Dagestan.

In other news:

"Now that the cat is out of that particular bag...

For reasons best described as "French" 500 Frenchies decided to perform an amphibeous landing out of Romania to a beach near Odesa, with their landing craft later making an extended Call of Port in Odesa Harbour on Saturday.
They made sure to sprout a lot of flags of decidedly French nature, and did a spiffing job of looking incredibly French.

The Frenchies seem to enjoy the sun and the natural scenery quite a bit, and seem very uninclined to go anywhere in the foreseeable future.
The stated reason for the amphibeous landing is:
"We are French!"

Russia did take a lot of umbrage with this for some mysterious reason, and a lot of Sad Russia Noises are now sprouting forth.
Right now they are busy having fun training with the Ukrainian Marine Commandos."