The end?

Global and frontline news

"As noted I have not done a real indepth update of the frontline for a while.
This is simply due to the time it takes me to go through the reports and with other stuff...
Yeah...
So, let us start at the two most logical spots, and then do it Clockwise.

G20 - China
Xi and China bowing out of the G20 Summit in India is probably the biggest thing since conserved out porridge.
The implication are potentially enormous.
So, for once I am giving the pundits leeway in their punditry since they know as much to the WHY as we do.

The guesses range from economic problems, famine problems, preparing to invade Russia, preparing to send troops and weapons to help Russia, preparing to invade Taiwan, preparing to invade Japan, unknown internal strife...

The economic problems are real, especially the failing construction sector.
The famine is real, and now the number one goal of China to solve, both officially and unofficially.
Invading Russia, yes it is likely, but not yet, they will wait until it is so bad in Russia that the Far East begs for an intervention or something near to it.
Helping Russia is not likely, it is always an option, but if China commit to that they are out in the cold with Russia and can only hope that Russia and they can win a far bigger war then the Ukrainian.
Any help to Russia and China is in the cold, and they know that their economy can't take that now.
Invading Taiwan or Japan is just out of the question now with the Western War Factories spinning ever faster, we are ready, China is not.
Internal problems, yes China has that in abundance due to economy and famine, but it is not so big that Xi can't risk to go according to our analyticists.

No, I think it is way simpler.
China ****ed up bigly with that map of theirs.
Everyone and the cat wants to tell Xi to sod it, including probably even Lavrov.
Taking half an island plus a couple of other pieces from Russia, both on the map and in reality, was not popular.
Yes, Russia could do squat about it, but still not popular.

India is fuming, and there was a good chance that Modi would punch Xi straight in the gob when they met.
This manouvre sent the Indian army directly for the contested area, and they are now fully ready to solve the issue with guns in an open war.

South China Sea, here China extended their waters so ridiculously much that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia have banded together to tell Xi to go to hell, and tell him that they are ready to back it up with their navies.
I think the reason for Xi not going is that he was not looking forward to being yelled at.

Azerbaijan
Together with their two big sponsors Russia and Turkey Azerbaijan is planning to invade Armenia.
Their army is currently moving to the border with war-markings (They use the kyrillic letter A).

Russia obviously can't aid Azerbaijan in their current feeble state, but Turkey can.
We have good reasons to believe that Putin and Erdögan agreed on letting Azerbaijan attack Armenia.
This is important for Russia since it costs them nothing, and will draw western attention from the Ukrainian War, and for Turkey anything killing an Armenian is a thing to celebrate.

Obviously the Armenians are pushing their army towards the border to in defence, and they are openly asking for arms from the west.
This is something to follow closely, and the question is now what the other nations around Azerbaijan will do.

Zumy Oblast
Russia has been performing small incursion slaughtering Ukrainian border guards on video, pretty gruesome stuff.
This is to pull reinforcements from the frontline.
It will though obviously not happen, instead Ukraine is dispatchin other reserve units that are not as competent, but good enough to plug the holes.

Luhansk
Here there has been a bit of back and forth with Russia sprouting a few minor nipples, and Ukraine squashing said nipples.
Nothin major really, but worth keeping an eye on it from time to time.
On the whole Ukraine has taken more ground in the last week compared to the Russians, mostly due to the well trained Russians being in Zhaporizhzhia.

Bakhmut
If one look closely at the map there is a rail line going from Bakhmut Southwards.
It Runs East of Klichi'ivka and Andrivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka as it ambles along towards the larger City of Horlivka.

Along this railroad is the Russian main defence line.
This week Ukraine took Klichi'ivka for the third time, probably for good now, and they have cleared Andrivka completely from Russians by artillery fire, but not yet taken control of it.

With the ongoing fighting for Kurdyumivka that is going slowly forward, it means that Ukraine now controls the Western side along the entire defence line from the edge of Bakhmut, all the way south to Kurdyumivka.
This means that Ukraine is holding a ten kilometre long contact line with the Russian main defence line, and can pretty much punch at will.

It also means that they can follow onwards if they wish southwards along the contact line towards Horlivka.
Forget liberating Bakhmut, if the can punch here the T0513 main road is within reach, or in reach by just continuing South.
Oops.

Vuhledar
During the entire war this place has been a pain in the **** for Ukraine.
It is from here that they lob GMLRS missiles on that poor railroad cutting it on an almost daily basis.
It is here that Russia lost a large part of their tank fleet.
And it is here that the Ukrainian 2nd Tank Army Group has been idling the entire summer.

The reason for the idling is that they have not had enough breeching forces (infantry).
But, just out of boredom the went a bit southeast to shut down a road, and they have slowly and tankily encroached upon Pavlivka.

A few days ago a couple of very bored Storm Brigades ambled over towards Novo'donetske and Novomaior'ske and started to do unspeakable things to Russians.
One of them is the very feared Kozack Brigade, name that is sending shivers of terror down the spine of any Russian.

For some reason they got very well along with their new Commander, finally they met someone even more bloodthirsty than they.
The smiles between them says it all as they got their marching orders on the picture.
Currently they are working hard on taking them, and getting access to the T0509 road to Pavlivka.
They are having much fun judging from the Sad Russian Noises coming out of the area.
Let us just say that the Russians in the area was totally unprepared for those maniacs, or as Tank Girl call's them "My cuddly boys".

Let us just say that Syrskiy is not amused of her taking control of a sector next to his fiefdom, Oleksandr on the other hand is very pleased to finally getting something happening in this area, it has after all been a 3 month long slumberfest.
Expect mayhem here.

Zavitne Bazhannya
Here the storming has stalled out a bit as both sides try to take a breather, I expect it to restart come Sunday or so.

Tokmak Axis
I have yacked so much about it that I will leave it be today.
Ukraine is moving mostly East and South now at a nice but slow pace, expect good news in a couple of days to become official.

Kakhovka Plain
At the exdam of Kakhovka things are now moving again after a planned lull that was truly annoying me :)
Here they are punching their way down the T0812 towards where it meets the M18 Highway.
The goal here is to try to take Vasylivka before Winter sets in.
From there they have the E105 Highway down to Melitopol.
Something that is quite doable during the Rasputitsa.

Conclusion
With the exception of the expected fuckery from Erdogan and Turkey everything is going as nicely as could be expected.
As more pressure is applied at the Superjoint (whatever to call it) of Vuhledar Russia will be pushed faster towards the brink of collapse.

Oh forgot...
It is soon Bridge Season again, Russians have almost repaired the bridge again, so give it a few days and it will be time to sing the ever popular song "Kersh Bridge on Fire!"

Anyway, I am now slightly bored.
So, I might go for a beer or two before it is bedtime."
 
Last edited:
borolad259 said:
Global and frontline news

"As noted I have not done a real indepth update of the frontline for a while.
This is simply due to the time it takes me to go through the reports and with other stuff...
Yeah...
So, let us start at the two most logical spots, and then do it Clockwise.

G20 - China
Xi and China bowing out of the G20 Summit in India is probably the biggest thing since conserved out porridge.
The implication are potentially enormous.
So, for once I am giving the pundits leeway in their punditry since they know as much to the WHY as we do.

The guesses range from economic problems, famine problems, preparing to invade Russia, preparing to send troops and weapons to help Russia, preparing to invade Taiwan, preparing to invade Japan, unknown internal strife...

The economic problems are real, especially the failing construction sector.
The famine is real, and now the number one goal of China to solve, both officially and unofficially.
Invading Russia, yes it is likely, but not yet, they will wait until it is so bad in Russia that the Far East begs for an intervention or something near to it.
Helping Russia is not likely, it is always an option, but if China commit to that they are out in the cold with Russia and can only hope that Russia and they can win a far bigger war then the Ukrainian.
Any help to Russia and China is in the cold, and they know that their economy can't take that now.
Invading Taiwan or Japan is just out of the question now with the Western War Factories spinning ever faster, we are ready, China is not.
Internal problems, yes China has that in abundance due to economy and famine, but it is not so big that Xi can't risk to go according to our analyticists.

No, I think it is way simpler.
China ****ed up bigly with that map of theirs.
Everyone and the cat wants to tell Xi to sod it, including probably even Lavrov.
Taking half an island plus a couple of other pieces from Russia, both on the map and in reality, was not popular.
Yes, Russia could do squat about it, but still not popular.

India is fuming, and there was a good chance that Modi would punch Xi straight in the gob when they met.
This manouvre sent the Indian army directly for the contested area, and they are now fully ready to solve the issue with guns in an open war.

South China Sea, here China extended their waters so ridiculously much that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia have banded together to tell Xi to go to hell, and tell him that they are ready to back it up with their navies.
I think the reason for Xi not going is that he was not looking forward to being yelled at.

Azerbaijan
Together with their two big sponsors Russia and Turkey Azerbaijan is planning to invade Armenia.
Their army is currently moving to the border with war-markings (They use the kyrillic letter A).

Russia obviously can't aid Azerbaijan in their current feeble state, but Turkey can.
We have good reasons to believe that Putin and Erdögan agreed on letting Azerbaijan attack Armenia.
This is important for Russia since it costs them nothing, and will draw western attention from the Ukrainian War, and for Turkey anything killing an Armenian is a thing to celebrate.

Obviously the Armenians are pushing their army towards the border to in defence, and they are openly asking for arms from the west.
This is something to follow closely, and the question is now what the other nations around Azerbaijan will do.

Zumy Oblast
Russia has been performing small incursion slaughtering Ukrainian border guards on video, pretty gruesome stuff.
This is to pull reinforcements from the frontline.
It will though obviously not happen, instead Ukraine is dispatchin other reserve units that are not as competent, but good enough to plug the holes.

Luhansk
Here there has been a bit of back and forth with Russia sprouting a few minor nipples, and Ukraine squashing said nipples.
Nothin major really, but worth keeping an eye on it from time to time.
On the whole Ukraine has taken more ground in the last week compared to the Russians, mostly due to the well trained Russians being in Zhaporizhzhia.

Bakhmut
If one look closely at the map there is a rail line going from Bakhmut Southwards.
It Runs East of Klichi'ivka and Andrivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka as it ambles along towards the larger City of Horlivka.

Along this railroad is the Russian main defence line.
This week Ukraine took Klichi'ivka for the third time, probably for good now, and they have cleared Andrivka completely from Russians by artillery fire, but not yet taken control of it.

With the ongoing fighting for Kurdyumivka that is going slowly forward, it means that Ukraine now controls the Western side along the entire defence line from the edge of Bakhmut, all the way south to Kurdyumivka.
This means that Ukraine is holding a ten kilometre long contact line with the Russian main defence line, and can pretty much punch at will.

It also means that they can follow onwards if they wish southwards along the contact line towards Horlivka.
Forget liberating Bakhmut, if the can punch here the T0513 main road is within reach, or in reach by just continuing South.
Oops.

Vuhledar
During the entire war this place has been a pain in the **** for Ukraine.
It is from here that they lob GMLRS missiles on that poor railroad cutting it on an almost daily basis.
It is here that Russia lost a large part of their tank fleet.
And it is here that the Ukrainian 2nd Tank Army Group has been idling the entire summer.

The reason for the idling is that they have not had enough breeching forces (infantry).
But, just out of boredom the went a bit southeast to shut down a road, and they have slowly and tankily encroached upon Pavlivka.

A few days ago a couple of very bored Storm Brigades ambled over towards Novo'donetske and Novomaior'ske and started to do unspeakable things to Russians.
One of them is the very feared Kozack Brigade, name that is sending shivers of terror down the spine of any Russian.

For some reason they got very well along with their new Commander, finally they met someone even more bloodthirsty than they.
The smiles between them says it all as they got their marching orders on the picture.
Currently they are working hard on taking them, and getting access to the T0509 road to Pavlivka.
They are having much fun judging from the Sad Russian Noises coming out of the area.
Let us just say that the Russians in the area was totally unprepared for those maniacs, or as Tank Girl call's them "My cuddly boys".

Let us just say that Syrskiy is not amused of her taking control of a sector next to his fiefdom, Oleksandr on the other hand is very pleased to finally getting something happening in this area, it has after all been a 3 month long slumberfest.
Expect mayhem here.

Zavitne Bazhannya
Here the storming has stalled out a bit as both sides try to take a breather, I expect it to restart come Sunday or so.

Tokmak Axis
I have yacked so much about it that I will leave it be today.
Ukraine is moving mostly East and South now at a nice but slow pace, expect good news in a couple of days to become official.

Kakhovka Plain
At the exdam of Kakhovka things are now moving again after a planned lull that was truly annoying me :)
Here they are punching their way down the T0812 towards where it meets the M18 Highway.
The goal here is to try to take Vasylivka before Winter sets in.
From there they have the E105 Highway down to Melitopol.
Something that is quite doable during the Rasputitsa.

Conclusion
With the exception of the expected fuckery from Erdogan and Turkey everything is going as nicely as could be expected.
As more pressure is applied at the Superjoint (whatever to call it) of Vuhledar Russia will be pushed faster towards the brink of collapse.

Oh forgot...
It is soon Bridge Season again, Russians have almost repaired the bridge again, so give it a few days and it will be time to sing the ever popular song "Kersh Bridge on Fire!"

Anyway, I am now slightly bored.
So, I might go for a beer or two before it is bedtime."
Click to expand...
The China bit sounds volatile, the rest sounds like the Russia Ukraine war has a long way to go unfortunately.
 
HolgateCorner said:
The China bit sounds volatile, the rest sounds like the Russia Ukraine war has a long way to go unfortunately.
Click to expand...

I agree about China, but they really do need to be on Europe's good side for economic reasons, so there's hope that this will keep them sensible.
As for the duration, it could be done much more quickly, but at devastating cost to the Ukrainian forces in terms of personnel and equipment losses. This is why they are sticking with long, slow attrition ... which is keeping their losses down. If they get F16s and Gripens in any number (obvs with pilots that have gone through the necessary long training) this changes things ... and add in ATACMs and other long range stuff, it speeds things up even more. These are all conclusions arrived at last week.
 
It does strike me as incongruous that it was British and US senior military figures that were advocating a quick "armoured thrust" at this point. I often listen to WW2 podcasts and read on military history and one of the lessons that the Western Allies learnt in WW2 was to use "steel not flesh". So massive aerial and artillery "preparation" before any ground assault. Simply by 1944 we did not have the flesh to keep feeding into the grinder. It is no surprise that the Russians still operate on a massed overwhelming assault of bodies, they always have and never learnt that lesson. But we did. So when I read of a British Admiral/Chief of Staff advocating some sort of blitzkrieg against defences prepared in depth I just shook my head. I suppose it is "only" Ukrainian lives they are prepared to expend not their own troops. (I'm being flippant here, I hope this isn't their attitude)

It's plain that the Ukraine's armed forces should be the ones setting the timetable and if that means we keep giving them "stuff" then so be it. Give them more Challenger Tanks. If we need to replace them we will have to spend the money in this country. They are due to be replaced/rebuilt anyway. Whatever they need. I suspect that the type of "tanks" that we would need to have in the event of a future conflict will be reviewed in the light of lessons learned from the Ukraine, perhaps we don't need big lumbering behemoths but a smaller more nimble "tank"?
 
Muttley said:
It does strike me as incongruous that it was British and US senior military figures that were advocating a quick "armoured thrust" at this point. I often listen to WW2 podcasts and read on military history and one of the lessons that the Western Allies learnt in WW2 was to use "steel not flesh". So massive aerial and artillery "preparation" before any ground assault. Simply by 1944 we did not have the flesh to keep feeding into the grinder. It is no surprise that the Russians still operate on a massed overwhelming assault of bodies, they always have and never learnt that lesson. But we did. So when I read of a British Admiral/Chief of Staff advocating some sort of blitzkrieg against defences prepared in depth I just shook my head. I suppose it is "only" Ukrainian lives they are prepared to expend not their own troops. (I'm being flippant here, I hope this isn't their attitude)

It's plain that the Ukraine's armed forces should be the ones setting the timetable and if that means we keep giving them "stuff" then so be it. Give them more Challenger Tanks. If we need to replace them we will have to spend the money in this country. They are due to be replaced/rebuilt anyway. Whatever they need. I suspect that the type of "tanks" that we would need to have in the event of a future conflict will be reviewed in the light of lessons learned from the Ukraine, perhaps we don't need big lumbering behemoths but a smaller more nimble "tank"?
Click to expand...
I have a friend who works in Defence, who suggests the UK’s defence status is woefully insufficient, and that this conflict has highlighted this starkly. He is seeing evidence that Uk is hastily rebuilding its capability, at the same time as trying to publicly make a splash about supporting Ukraine.
 
Borotommo said:
I have a friend who works in Defence, who suggests the UK’s defence status is woefully insufficient, and that this conflict has highlighted this starkly. He is seeing evidence that Uk is hastily rebuilding its capability, at the same time as trying to publicly make a splash about supporting Ukraine.
Click to expand...
But didn't the UK, under the guise of austerity and against the advice of the military, slash the armed forces pretty much to the bone. Citing "conventional warfare" was old hat and and a small, lean elite set of troops was all that was needed?

Aged well.

Who'd have thunk the government were only looking at the ££££££. Colour me shocked etc 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️
 
On football hooligans (he doesn't like football) :D and he doesn't like neo-nazis.

"Being able to multitask is probably the most important part of being a field general in command.
Just because you are attending a grueling course and do a bit of wargaming, you still must take the time to run the war.

Having been assigned the Donetsk to Vuhledar part of the frontline she did not wait for things to settle in.
Note that this assignment came just prior to the wargame, the clue here was the 2nd Tank Army Group in Vuhledar being seconded in.

Hence the Cossack's starting their storming operation in Novodonet'ske and Novomaior'ske.
At the same time a couple of battalions from the 2nd TAG Increased their activity against Pavlivka.

Due to Ukraine having forced the Russians to reinforce so heavily near Robotyne and Verbove on the Tokmak axis, the frontline immediately started to buckle from Novomaior'ske to Pavlivka.
Noticing the easy buckling she then kicked in the next step.

Donetsk Airport
She was always gonna go home like the crazy Cossack Angel of Death that she is.
And, finally having the ability and authority to prepare for that was just a tad to much of a chance for her.

Noticing that it was the 10th Tank Brigade that had been rotated in to hold at Opytne near Avdivka she sent the 93rd Brigade on a lighting march/strike on them not telling anyone really with the exception of me and Zaluzhnyy.
After a brief tank battle the weight of the 93rd carried the day and the remnants of the 10th Tank Brigade scurried away across the lake line.

The 93rd is now holding the entire Northern side of the lakeline, the access roads, all the way down to the fringe of Spartak, famous for their neo-nazi football team Spartak Donetsk.
This football club was the core of the Russian takeover, leading to the Football Stadium being a military target set for destruction.

The football club has their own ultra's based unit called the Somali Battalion, it was also involved in the battle and suffered heavy losses.
Football, always the root case of all that is evil in this world, good to see an army dish out payback for once on the hooligan's.

The good part of being a master of multitasking and having ample resources is that you can do many things at the same time.
So, in a similar dash/strike manouvre two battalions out the 2nd TAG and an infantry brigade arrived East of Nevelske South of the river/lake area and started storming operations.
At the same time a similar grouping started striking just North along the M50 from Pervomai'ske and liberated the Svyato-Ivers'koho Zhinochyy Monastyr.

This means that 36 hours ago she was standing at the gates of Donetsk to the North and the East, with the airport and Lake area in a pincer with forces trapped inside of it.
Let us just say that the last 36 hours have been an "interesting learning experience" and leave it at that.

I do not think that the Russians ever dreamt about the "Dildo of Consequences" would arrive in the form of a 160cm 50kg very angry former hairdresser from Donetsk.
I should though point out here that she had done two years of military service prior to 2014, she returned from a rather brief stint as a civilian as the 2014 debacle happened.
Still, 11 years from private to general is a staggering testament to her capacity and skill.

Expect more Sad Russian Noises from this region in the following days, weeks and months."

And this was a follow up just this afternoon

"I think I failed in driving home the importance of this.
The victory at Opytne and defeat of the 10th Tank Brigade is of the same importance as the taking of Robotyne, if not even more important.

Tank Girl's strength is to find spots that can be attacked with lightning speed, and then drive home the attack mercilessly.
Make a single mistake and she will take you for a ride before you get a chance to fix things.

Note that these two massive wins came out of her understanding of what the Russian units strengths and weaknesses were, and used them against them by using different forces.

At Opytne she saw that the Russians was prepairing for an attack towards the Avdivka Fortress.
For some reason the Russian trench storming infantry was not in place, leaving the Tank Brigade infront of them.
This meant that a stronger tank Brigade with more weight and better training could quickly push them back while decimating them due to the lack of infantry protection.
The 93rd is a Nordic Brigade type mixing tanks with heavy infantry in CV90s, perfect for this type of rapid attack since the vehicles can move very rapidly across the fields.
Also, to make the attack possible the Russians had demined things in premade routes that was supposed to be held by the lagging Somali Battalion... Oops.

What I did not convey here is that due to Avdivka and Odessa City being so darn close to each one, there was only ever one line of defence here on both sides.
This defence line was open very shortly, and she punched through.
There is no further defence line between her and Spartak.

This means that Russia all of a sudden has to set up defences for Urban Defencive Warfare in their Capital of Occupied Ukraine.
In other words, Russia will now have to fight with Russian Citizen Civilians milling about fleeing everywhere.
She called the mayor of Donetsk and gave him 48 hour notice for evacuation, and then pressed home the point by blowing up the club house of the Spartak Donetsk supporters.

This means that Russia will be forced to prepare for potentially having to recceive 3.2 million civilian evacuees/refugees.
The political ramifications is just on a completely different scale to anything previously seen.
To the Russian population Donetsk City is as Russian as Yekaterinburg or Tobolsk, there will be questions, hard questions.

In the South there was only light infantry guarding the line near the Monastery.
It was the completely wrong type of troops to hold a major highway.
Having a infantry storm brigade arriving together with two tank battalions was exactly not what the Russians wanted here since the Ukrainians arrived at maximum speed and was just on top of them before they knew what happened to them.

On this side there are Russians defences, but with only 1km to go before hitting the outskirts of the City it is just not enough, and here they are pushing onwards to cut the defence line here too.

Now imagine this being your State/Region capital city with an angry army storming from two sides at the same time.
I bet you would have questions...

Pavlivka
If Vuhledar was the key fortification holding back the Russians, Pavlivka is the fortress holding back the 2nd Tank Army Group (TAG).
By attacking on soon taking both of the "Novo's" she is undercutting the Pavlivka Fortress, opening up for future attacks towards both Berdyansk and Mariupol.

What achieved?
Let us assume that she punches out Pavlivka, Russia will be forced to reinforce massively to not have her go for the City of choice.

And defending Donetsk will eat up a significant proportion of whatever troops Russia has in Donbas, plus every single Mobik drafted during the winter.

In other words, Russia just ran out of troops on a massive scale, heck the Russians might even have to move troops away from Tokmak, it is that bad.

What makes her so impressive is her ability to make you groan in pain as she picks you apart.
I know this intimately (no, not that way Nick!) since I have been picked apart by her.

In general I would say that it has been the most impressive first week as a general by anyone in history.
Yes, she has the best units in Ukraine, she has the best equipment in Ukraine, but it is how she is using it, and the precission of how she picks the tools that I find so darn impressive.

Butterflies
Lately there has been millions of butterflies in Ukraine along the entire frontline.
These are the "Great Blue", a species that was moving into the extinction threat region of things.
Latin name is "Phengaris aron" and it is the largest Lycaenidea (gossamer wing) buttefly.
It is also carnivorous, and was known to be prevalent along the trenchlines of WWI.

Normally they predate on ants, but with rotting flesh around they sometimes instead predate on carcasses of animals.

It is both beautiful and sad to watch clouds of thousands of them milling about.
Weirdly Russia saved this species by sacrificing themselves and not burrying their own corpses.
Who knew that the Russian army would turn out to be eco-warriors?"
 
A bit about Armenia

"Let me start in another direction completely, namely in Azerbaijan.
Everyone, the cat, and Erdögan had forgotten a party of the party...
Let us bring religion into the discussion.
About 99 percent of the Azeri are sunni muslims, and famously it is the most secular of all muslim countries on the planet.
The Armenians are mainly christian.
If we go into politics, Russia used to be allied with Armenia and protect it.
Armenia is currently holding the Nagorno-Karabakh region that they occupied with Russian help back during 1992-1994 war.
Then we have Turkey who in general wish that every single Armenian was dead, something that Turkey has tried to effect when they slaughtered 2 million Armenians, Erdögan sees this as his holy duty to continue the tradition.

As Russia weakened the Armenians have turned sharply to the West and embarked on a Westernification process.
This has further angered Erdögan and soured relations with Moscow, this shift in politics have been driven by the population itself and not entirely by the politicians, even though many of them have turned Westernish to have a shot at staying in power.

So, during the Turkey/Russia-summit Putin and Erdögan decided that it was a good time to teach Armenia a lesson.
It should though be stated that both sides had different reasons for this, Russia want the Armenians to come running back into the fold, and for Erdögan it is a way to cost-effectively kill Armenians and weaken Armenia prior to a future all out attack, and as a way to strengthen its hold of Azerbaijan and spreading Erdöganism there.

For the Russians there was also the opportunity to divide Wests attention.
This division of attention was almost instant as the US flew in troops, ostensibly for a friendly excercise.

But, as I mentioned, everyone forgot a party of the party...
Russia forgot about an ally, Azerbaijan forgot a religious "frenemy", Turkey forgot a country hellbent on stopping Erdögans project of creating an Ottoman 2.0 Empire, and the West forgot one of its greatest Foes.
And they where angry as hell...

Out of the morning mist in the Northwestern desserts endless columns of Tanks and Soldiers of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran roared forth and took positions along the entire border to Azerbaijan and then openly threatened to invade Azerbaijan if they set a single fot in either Nagorno-Karabash, or in Armenia proper.

And an entire world said collectively "what the **** just happened?".
Well, except for Erdögan, he said "****, they noticed".

As power moves go it is so far up in the sky that ***** can see it with the JWST.
So, why the hell did Iran do this?
Time for a history-religious lesson.

First of all it should be stated that the current of Iran is not a nice incarnation of this ancient empire.
Just needed to have that stated since I am going to write positive things below about Iran/Persia.

The current Iranian worldview can best be described as slightly schizophrenic, mostly due to the current Mullah's.
They see themselves as the natural allies of the West, and as the carriers of the ancient greek culture.
Unlike the Wahabi and most other sunni movements of today they are totally fine with Christian neighbours, and have never partaken in forced islamification, and still to this day there are large christian and jewish communities inside Iran.
From their standpoint they are embroiled in an internal religious war with the Sunni, especially with the Wahabi-sect.
And they can't for the life of them understand why the West is allied directly with the Wahabists in Saudi Arabia, since Iran see them as anathema to Western culture and values.

On top of that they see themselves as friends and protectors of Kurds.
As a democratic state.
And as the protectors of the West against the Ottoman Empire.

This last part is pretty much true, without Persia there would have been no Europe as we know it, without the endless wars between the Ottoman Empire and the Persian Empire's sapping the power of the Ottoman's we would all have ended up under their power.

This is the crux of the schizophrenia, at the same time Iran see us as "the great satan", and at the same time they are going "why are we not allies?".
This is outside of the scope of this, but if things had been handled differently in the late seventies and eighties, on both sides, the world would have looked quite different today.
And, controversally I would like to point out that our wahabi ally Saudi Arabia is even more bonkers than Iran, and a far bigger threat to our very existance and a far bigger supplier of terror-movements.

Pertinent here is that it was in a large part Iran that saved the Armenians during Turkeys genocide attempt, something that the Armenians know well, and there is a large Armenian christian community living inside of Iran to this day.
Iran historically and today are quite fine with having a christian Armenia and Georgia at their borders.
Having a secular sunni state is not so halal, they are mostly seen as infidels.

So, from an Iranian standpoint they can help out their friendly trading partner Armenia, **** over Turkey, somewhat curry favour with the West as "saviours of the western state" while obviously rubbing this in unofficially, and make the Azeri rather uncomfortable.
And the beautiful part is that they can **** over Russia while saying "hey, we are just helping you protect Armenia"...
They also in this manner limited Armenias dependence on the West and the need for the West to arm Armenia.

As a power move it is indeed brilliant.
Armenia versus Azerbaijan would on their own probably have led to a stalemate in just a few days since Turkey has no natural way to reinforce Azerbaijan or send weapons in any great numbers.
Turkey can only do it by removing the final veil of decency and invade Armenia directly, something that would remove Turkey forever from the Western sphere and make Iran a natural ally of the West (in their minds).

Anyway, unless Turkey leaves NATO they will not invade, and Turkey is not ready yet for this move.
It will though happen sooner or later as Erdögan need to do this in the end to rebuild his version of the Ottoman Empire.
So, due to Iran the Azeri invasion of Armenia will not happen.

And no, Iran is at this point in history not a natural ally of the West.
But, neither is the Wahabists.
We should do without either of them, get out of their way and let them dunk it out on their own in an Islamic 30-year war.
Something that will happen as soon as we are out from under the oppression of the carbohydrates.
Meh... I turned political here innit..."
 
Some Russian domestic woes

"Finally protests have started in Russia, and the reason is truly both amusing and ironic.
If anyone 18 months ago would have said that this would be the seed of actual foment I would have laughed my **** off and called them crazy.
But here we are.

Fuel
Obviously Russia is not running out of Oil or Natural Gas.
Quite the opposite really, they are running a rather big surplus, and have had to shutter about 50 percent of their production due to the sanctions.
Yes, they are shipping, but not nearly at the same levels.
And yes, they do have a ghost fleet of ships shipping now, but it is still not even at 50 percent of the prewar level, and they are getting far less money for their products.

No, it is fuels they are running out of rapidly.
There are 3 reasons for this.
1. Ukraine has been really good at targeting the Russian refineries.
This has severely lowered the production rate.
Ukraine has also hit key pipelines going to the refineries further hampering productions.
2. Logistics, Ukraine has blown up more than 8000 fuel trucks during the war, this has in turn forced the Russians to go around nabbing fuel trucks normally delivering civilian fuel.
The shortage of ballbearings for the railroad has further diminished haulage capacity for fuel.
It is now common both in Occupied Ukraine and inside Russia to deliver fuel with civilian cars and lorries not made for hauling fuel. The basic tanks used have caused many accidents and fires.
3. In a desperate attempt to get any hard currency Russia is now selling gazoline, diesel and jetfuel to neighbouring countries.
Talk about putting a grenade launcher against your foot and pulling the trigger...

This has put half of Russia out of fuel for cars, trucks, farming equipment etcetera.
Imagine living in rural Russia without fuel as winter sets in?
If you do not live next to the railrod network you are not gonna have a fun winter.

Natural Gas
Somehow a lot of people have found it nice and cosy to go and smoke heavily next to the pipelines distributing the natural gas in Russia.
In other words, someone is blowing up pipelines and pumping stations.
And with no spareparts available this is problematic to put it mildly.

With no natural gas to heat houses, drive thermal powerplants, drive gasturbines producing electricity it will be a very cold and dark winter in Russia.

Whereas Ukraine will have spareparts delivered within days, and generators delivered by their tens of thousands, nobody will come to the aid of Russia.

Food
The fuel shortage is now so large that the Russian harvest is stalled out, and the crops are being destroyed in the fields.
On top of that, the fuel that is available is up by 50 percent or more.
At the same time the buyers are offering 30 percent less for the crops.

The threat of a Russian famine is high if this is not fixed within two weeks.
There are already protesting farmers closing roads etcetera in protest.

And to top off the famine risk.
Russia has sold all available grains from last year, and most of what has come in to get cash for the war effort.
The equation is grim, it seems like Russia is more than willing to starve millions to death just to be able to afford Running the Blackmarket purchases of essential electronics to build a few more missiles and drones in a war that is already lost.

This means that even if Russia gives up come December (just per example), there would still be millions of Russians dying afterwards, and the truly ironic part is that the only ones that would be able to save them are the Ukrainians...

Conclusion
I know that Russians are used to living in **** and in s***y conditions.
But living in cold, dark apartments without food for an entire winter?

Obviously Moscow and St Petersburg will have fuel, heat, electricity and food, but the rest of Russia?
When will the first Governor or President cave for public demand and ask a neighbouring country for aid, or leave Russia alltogether and apply for international aid?

Remember that to keep Moscow and St Petersburg happy the Russians will have to take parts from other places to keep their failing powerplants running, they will have to forcibly take food from other cities, the same with fuel.

Think like this, a power sub-station blows in central Moscow, they will then go and dismantle a suitable one in Tobolsk and move it to Moscow and put it up there.
Now imagine that you are the Mayor of Tobolsk, if the Muscovians take your substation your fellow Tobolskians will not be happy with you.
So, you pick up the phone and call your drinking buddy, the police captain that is captaining a police force of local Tobolskians who want their famillies to have electricity.
They in turn round up a bunch of Tobolskian veterans and ask them to tag along after explaining what the Muscovians are up to, the veterans wanting their families lit and warm will at that point break out their war trophy guns (after all they are not getting paid anyway) and the Police Captain rapidly deputises the veterans...
Now you have an armed militia ready to defend their sub-station with their lives to save the lives of their relatives and fellow Tobolskian friends...

It might not be Tobolsk, but it is sure to happen somewhere.
After all, who in Russia will be able to move the 1000 men strong Tobolskian Militia from beating the living schnabel out of the would-be sub-station thieves?
The army? Ha!

Anyway, I would keep a very close eye upon news about food coming out of Russia in the next few weeks.
I am for sure gonna keep a very close eye upon this as it evolves.
King Winter will assuredly not be Russias friend this year."
 
Uwefuchs said:
Sounds like the world is re-living the build up to world war 1.
Click to expand...

I don't think there is any appetite for that. Russia can't afford it and its army is fully occupied/stretched. Turkey and China are both powerful enough militarily to be a pain, but are aboth in dire straits economically. The USA is ever more insular. There's India of course, but I don't see that yet.
 
borolad259 said:
I don't think there is any appetite for that. Russia can't afford it and its army is fully occupied/stretched. Turkey and China are both powerful enough militarily to be a pain, but are aboth in dire straits economically. The USA is ever more insular. There's India of course, but I don't see that yet.
Click to expand...

I hope you're right but it feels like we have lots of potential conflicts bubbling up all over the place at the moment.
 
alvez_49 said:
the editor of the telegraph
Click to expand...
Hmmm, Obviously I can only read the bit of the article visible outside the paywall. Though I doubt I would read the whole thing. I suspect that it is probably a click bait title and opening para to sell subscriptions. It's a dangerous game that these journalists are playing making great pronouncements without any knowledge or research that could undermine "The West's" commitment to Ukraine.

Shameful really that they are prepared to risk the freedom of a country and the lives of its people for clicks.
 
Muttley said:
Hmmm, Obviously I can only read the bit of the article visible outside the paywall. Though I doubt I would read the whole thing. I suspect that it is probably a click bait title and opening para to sell subscriptions. It's a dangerous game that these journalists are playing making great pronouncements without any knowledge or research that could undermine "The West's" commitment to Ukraine.

Shameful really that they are prepared to risk the freedom of a country and the lives of its people for clicks.
Click to expand...

Or just prepping the ground work for quietly removing support for Ukraine because it's unpopular in USA.

It's ok though Sweden will save the day regardless.
 
Muttley said:
Hmmm, Obviously I can only read the bit of the article visible outside the paywall. Though I doubt I would read the whole thing. I suspect that it is probably a click bait title and opening para to sell subscriptions. It's a dangerous game that these journalists are playing making great pronouncements without any knowledge or research that could undermine "The West's" commitment to Ukraine.

Shameful really that they are prepared to risk the freedom of a country and the lives of its people for clicks.
Click to expand...
I agree, but I dare say there will still likely be some well placed individuals on the Putin payroll to encourage the spouting of such garbage.
 
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