Don’t worry about it mate, it’s too complicated to explain without having to go back and find the actual age profile of deaths on a particular day, then work back the cases for each age group at that IFR eg
1 death at 23yr old - IFR 0.03 = 3333 cases.
10 deaths at 60 -IFR 0.94 = 1063 cases.
60 deaths at 85 -IFR 8.86 = 677 cases.
Total estimated cases = 5073 cases.
Using an average IFR of 0.4, as in your example, and the same total numbers of people as above
71 deaths at IFR 0.4 = 17,750 cases.
Big difference in the projected cases.
Anyway, don’t worry about it. I can’t be doing the maths again or searching for IFR rates, it’s too late
Regarding the false positive remark, o just get annoyed that it’s a discussion that gets chucked into the conspiracy theory bin as soon as it’s mentioned, despite any evidence presented, such as from the governments own distributed advice (which I posted on another thread).
I guess ultimately, the point is it’s too emotive a subject and there is too much confusion around the data for a discussion about some of the more controversial elements of the data collection, to actually be had. Certainly not on a forum with to and fro texts when it might be a day or more before we get a chance to respond.
Anyway, enough.
Fingers crossed the signs of hospital admissions plateauing continue, and deaths start to steady and fall in line with the lag behind the Zoe app/ONS cases.
Having said that, there is a worrying trend developing for care home infection building again
EDIT - I’m not saying I think ALL cases are false positives, or that false negatives aren’t also a problem.