Stock market

Borotommo

Borotommo

Well-known member
I’m expecting a red wall on Monday. I’m going into cash, for a while, until Europe unites against the frozen west.
Seriously, I think there is a good chance of a crash/bubble burst, after Friday’s manchild performance. Certainly volatility for the coming weeks.
What say the investors on here? (Investors, I mean, not crypto gamblers)
 
yeah part of me wants it to all come crashing down to pish Trump and his mates off but on the other hand will severely fck the rest of us up especially any with pension funds :(
 
We said this a week or so ago when Trump called Z a dictator. It went down but recovered virtually the next day. It may go down it might go up. Who knows?
 
Zoophonic said:
We said this a week or so ago when Trump called Z a dictator. It went down but recovered virtually the next day. It may go down it might go up. Who knows?
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I just think Friday was a lot bigger. This is now a real EU v US standoff, and that means major uncertainty = sell off in the markets.
Very interested to see how Starmers Euro leaders’ meeting goes tomorrow. If Z gets an invite, we’re in full on trade war situation
 
Borotommo said:
If Z gets an invite, we’re in full on trade war situation
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To be honest this is more likely to happen despite tomorrows outcome. Trump wants confrontation and he is pushing all the buttons to get it.
We may as well accept it, get fully aligned with Europe and Canada and get started with the trade war.
The USA may find that isolationist policies do them much more damage than they thought possible.
 
My pension funds fell about 5% last week alone. My view if you are in funds then if you sell on Monday, you will realise a loss. the funds pricing will also turn against you. In my situation I will sit it out as I think things will bounce back.
If you are investing directly into shares, then that is a different matter, sell if you can get in quick.
For those of you with a cash position, now may be the time to buy.
 
swordtrombonefish said:
To be honest this is more likely to happen despite tomorrows outcome. Trump wants confrontation and he is pushing all the buttons to get it.
We may as well accept it, get fully aligned with Europe and Canada and get started with the trade war.
The USA may find that isolationist policies do them much more damage than they thought possible.
Click to expand...
I agree entirely
 
Time in the market beats timing the market.

If you are a long term investor, i.e. not a day trader, then a drop in the market means lower price buy-ins. Could be good timing for anyone who's regular investments are 1st working day of the month if it's just a short term drop.

The S&P is already 4% down on a month ago but it's still 16% up on this time last year so there's plenty of room for a drop.
 
Boro in Devon said:
My pension funds fell about 5% last week alone. My view if you are in funds then if you sell on Monday, you will realise a loss. the funds pricing will also turn against you. In my situation I will sit it out as I think things will bounce back.
If you are investing directly into shares, then that is a different matter, sell if you can get in quick.
For those of you with a cash position, now may be the time to buy.
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This doesn't make sense to me. If it's the time to sell if you're already in, why would it also be the time to buy if you're out?
 
johnsmithsno2 said:
This doesn't make sense to me. If it's the time to sell if you're already in, why would it also be the time to buy if you're out?
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Maybe I didnt make it clear, sorry. What I was trying to say, if the market is declining, then if you are invested in funds then you will realise a loss as they are normally priced at noon. So therefore you are probably to late to sell, so ride out the storm. If you are invested in shares, if you can sell quickly then that may be worth doing, if not hold them.

Conversely, if the markets drop sharply, then you can buy in at a low price, then it is worth while considering buying.

I used to work for a large insurance company in the unit linked pricing area. When markets were falling and we were seeing a large volume of sales, prices were down adjusted to cover our costs of selling assets, when markets rose then again adjustments were made to cover our buying costs. So selling at the same time as others will lead to you being penalised. Going against other investors can therefore be beneficial so long as markets dont continue to fall. In reality you often see a bounce, that can often be related to the pricing structure as I have explained above, being readjusted.

Hope that helps.
 
Any experienced investor knows time in the market beats timing the market.
To time the market you have to know when to buy, when to sell and when to get back in again.

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves." Peter Lynch.

And it pays to be a contrarian investor.
Everyone gets the same info at the same time. If the news seems very bad the market will sell off.
That is the time for a long term patient investor to pick up great stocks/funds at a cheaper price.
Warren Buffet: "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

Having said that anyone sitting on big profits, it's never a bad idea to trim and lock in some profits.
But going all to cash has always been a very bad idea.
And these days new investors have the attention span of a goldfish.
You should be investing with at least a 10 year time horizon.

 
And never act on impulse or emotion. You will never get it right that way. Trump is so unpredictable he can row back very quickly to save his own wealth. He is even denying he called Zelenski a dictator and meant it.
 

Just to add as Zoophonic says never invest with emotion. Also never think you know more than the markets.

As with the financial crisis of 2009, and Covid if the markets has a crash central banks often flood the market with liquidity to keep asset prices high.
No one knows the short term.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”​

― Benjamin Graham


And finally for those who didn't know already passive index funds over the long term absolutely destroy the vast majority of active fund managers, traders and retail stock pickers.
SPIVA has all the stats.

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Borotommo said:
I’m expecting a red wall on Monday. I’m going into cash, for a while, until Europe unites against the frozen west.
Seriously, I think there is a good chance of a crash/bubble burst, after Friday’s manchild performance. Certainly volatility for the coming weeks.
What say the investors on here? (Investors, I mean, not crypto gamblers)
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Trade what you see not what you think
 
When developing a trading system I like to see if such a system out performs a random buy and sell strategy. Particularly when it comes to short time scale trading. Its always surprising how such a random system is difficult to beat when back testing and forward testing. As long as the random system has a minimum 2:1 ratio of profit/loss limits and stops it sets a high bar.
 
Borotommo said:
I’m expecting a red wall on Monday. I’m going into cash, for a while, until Europe unites against the frozen west.
Seriously, I think there is a good chance of a crash/bubble burst, after Friday’s manchild performance. Certainly volatility for the coming weeks.
What say the investors on here? (Investors, I mean, not crypto gamblers)
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Of course markets could fall tomorrow but US equities actually rose strongly on Friday evening following the White House ***show. Therefore it is far from certain that tomorrow will be a red wall.
 
WilliamMunny said:
Of course markets could fall tomorrow but US equities actually rose strongly on Friday evening following the White House ***show. Therefore it is far from certain that tomorrow will be a red wall.
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could go up could go down or even stay where it is.
 
Borotommo said:
I’m expecting a red wall on Monday. I’m going into cash, for a while, until Europe unites against the frozen west.
Seriously, I think there is a good chance of a crash/bubble burst, after Friday’s manchild performance. Certainly volatility for the coming weeks.
What say the investors on here? (Investors, I mean, not crypto gamblers)
Click to expand...
A self-fulfilling prophesy.

Greed > Fear = Line go up.

Fear > Greed = Line go down.

Nothing complicated about the stock market.
 
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