So, the election for mayor of London, then

Foggysfplandiet3 said:
That is exactly it. Past UK Labour governments have relied heavily on the Scottish vote to form a UK government whereas the Tories never did, really. This is what makes it more difficult for Labour to get back in.

Ironic really when you think that Labour campaigned for devolution whereas the Tories were completely against it but devolution has bitten Labour on the bum really.
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I could be wrong but iam sure that every election Labour have won, they would still have won without the Scottish seats ?
Losing sears in Wales is a big problem for Labour though, especially as they are not losing them to a nationalist vote
 
jam69 said:
I could be wrong but iam sure that every election Labour have won, they would still have won without the Scottish seats ?
Losing sears in Wales is a big problem for Labour though, especially as they are not losing them to a nationalist vote
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You are probably right about Scotland Jam. The problem is losing the traditional seats in the Midlands and north in top of 46 in Scotland blows one hell of a hole in the numbers in Westminster.
 
Jimstewart said:
Hackney has something like a 33,000 Labour majority that’s why I said it isn’t a problem. The red wall seats I mentioned haven’t and neither have plenty of the other previous safe Labour seats in the north and the midlands. That’s why they are a problem.
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It was more a comment about the misrepresentation of Labour's 'heartlands' as being so one dimensional. If Hackney can't be counted as 'heartlands' then the term hasn't much meaning.
 
LaPennaBianca said:
It was more a comment about the misrepresentation of Labour's 'heartlands' as being so one dimensional. If Hackney can't be counted as 'heartlands' then the term hasn't much meaning.
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I agree it is a heartland but I wouldn’t imagine it’s top of their list when it comes to worrying about which seats might be blue after the next election.
 
It's totally understandable given how massive the city's population is, but I had forgotten just how many MPs London has.

73 MPs in London, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales, 18 in Northern Ireland.

There are only 6 fewer MPs for London than the whole of the North East and Yorkshire combined.
 
Jimstewart said:
I agree it is a heartland but I wouldn’t imagine it’s top of their list when it comes to worrying about which seats might be blue after the next election.
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Yes, true. But isn't that what got Labour into this mess in the first place? Not worrying about 'safe' seats.

A policy programme that appeals to many people across the country is what should win elections.

We've seen over the last year that ideas like universal broadband and better and comprehensive welfare provisions have real appeal - package them up better without Brexit and you're onto a winner. The Tories will never be able to compete with Labour on these issues as their party and supporters don't want a more interventionist state. A full throated 'New Deal' for the British people poat-Covid would clean up.
 
BoroMart said:
we have no idea if the Tories denting the red wall is a one off or not. Remember a lot of first time Tories did it specifically to get their blue passports. That's done, what will be their motivation next time?!
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I think we more or less know it isn't a one off. A lot of those losses have been coming for decades. Take the seats Jim listed:

Bolsover
74% Labour in 1997, 67% in 2001, 65% in 2005, 50% in 2010, 51% in 2015, 52% in 2017, 36% in 2019.

Blythe Valley
64% Labour in 1997, 60% in 2001, 55% in 2005, 45% in 2010, 46% in 2015, 56% in 2017, 41% in 2019.

Redcar
67% Labour in 1997, 60% in 2001, 51% in 2005, 33% in 2010, 44% in 2015, 56% in 2017, 37% in 2019.

It's a steady downward trend for 25 years.
 
SuperStu said:
I think we more or less know it isn't a one off. A lot of those losses have been coming for decades. Take the seats Jim listed:

Bolsover
74% Labour in 1997, 67% in 2001, 65% in 2005, 50% in 2010, 51% in 2015, 52% in 2017, 36% in 2019.

Blythe Valley
64% Labour in 1997, 60% in 2001, 55% in 2005, 45% in 2010, 46% in 2015, 56% in 2017, 41% in 2019.

Redcar
67% Labour in 1997, 60% in 2001, 51% in 2005, 33% in 2010, 44% in 2015, 56% in 2017, 37% in 2019.

It's a steady downward trend for 25 years.
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Really interesting is that there is a major uptick is 2017, when Brexit wasn't a zero-sum choice and Labour offered a proper socialist alternative.

Brexit is done now and whatever way we look at it, it isn't going to be an electoral issue until 2030 when there can be a more sober conversation about its benefits/drawbacks.

This is why now is the time for a bold policy. It's a moment to refound the country after the privations of the pandemic. Proper provisions Vs Sunak's austerity. It is not the time for half measures.
 
SuperStu said:
Agree with all that @LaPennaBianca... but sadly I don't think that's Starmer's reading of the situation. 🤷‍♂️
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My only hope is that he's running a long game where he 'resets' the party in the public eye in the first half of his time in opposition and then offers a clear policy programme in the second half.

The Tory majority isn't as strong as it looks given its make up and they still have no offer to people under 40. In fact, their 'war on woke' and belligerent Brexit stance are exacerbating generational conflict. Until they sort housing and the economy they will remain reliant on the elderly. Worth remembering that at the last 2 GEs that if only working age people voted then Labour would have won.
 
SuperStu said:
Agree with all that @LaPennaBianca... but sadly I don't think that's Starmer's reading of the situation. 🤷‍♂️
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I don’t think it’s his reading of the situation either. He seems to me to be trying to put as much daylight between him and the Corbyn years as possible (I think he still has Corbyn suspended from the parliamentary party). Why else is Mandleson talking to Starmer’s team about charting a route from opposition to government as the beeb quoted it the other day? He is urging a policy review as in his words “Keir still has the 2019 manifesto around his neck”. There may well be a lurch back towards the centre in an attempt to win back the more socially conservative voters in the north and the midlands but this risks alienating large swathes of the membership and London vote. It’s tricky for them.
 
LaPennaBianca said:
Hackney has been a Labour seat since it's inception. If that's not heartland, I don't know what is.

And another vote for Khan here. A lot of noise made about him by people who have made 'not liking London' a facet of their personality, but he has done a far better job than his predecessor. Whatever happened to him?
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What has he done?
 
LaPennaBianca said:
Night tube
Hopper fares
ULEZ

Also worth remembering what he hasn't done: No wasted money on vanity projects like buses and bridges.

I'm not his biggest fan, but compared to what came before and the two candidates who he has run against - there really is no contest.
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Low traffic neighbourhoods.

Increase in cycle lanes too.
 
LaPennaBianca said:
Night tube
Hopper fares
ULEZ

Also worth remembering what he hasn't done: No wasted money on vanity projects like buses and bridges.

I'm not his biggest fan, but compared to what came before and the two candidates who he has run against - there really is no contest.
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Least **** isn't going to get me to vote for him. We need someone to tackle the housing crisis effectively.
 
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