Sirius

TheLodger

Well-known member
#1
Just got notification from broker that I have to vote one way or the other, or indeed not vote at all, what's everyone doing?
I am lucky at buying £1000 worth at .10p and then another £1000 worth at 3.01p so only in for about £200 if sold at the agreed 5.5p
 

TheLodger

Well-known member
#7
Sirius has dropped 9% this morning to 4.76p

Does the market think the offer of 5.5p will be rejected or is something else brewing?
 

Wev1

Active member
#8
It might be factoring in the possibility of it being rejected and them going bust, also including for the small possibility that it could be rescued some other way (which isn't going to happen by the sounds of it).

If the offer is absolutely 100% guaranteed to be 5.5p, and 100% will be accepted, then the share price could be a tiny bit lower,, allowing for trading fees and a catastrophe that stops the project altogether.

With the price at 4.76 a very rough way to look at it could be:
Probability of 5.5p = 85% x 5.5p = 4.6p
Probability of going bust = 14.8% x 0p = 0p
Probability of somebody else saving it and getting to 50p = 0.2% x 50 = 0.1p

Total: 4.7p
Note: This isn't the best way of looking at it, but is a quick way of assessing value from probability

It could be free money if you think the buyout will definitely go ahead, but there really must be lots of people that just won't accept defeat, and want it to go to zero.
 

Wev1

Active member
#15
Apologies you are right. Its 10,000 shares that would make you £80. That's a considerable sum less.
Aye, about £1,500 less, after fees.

10k buy at 4.75 and sell at 5.5 is about £1,600 profit, minus fees.

I wouldn't do it mind, as Sirius is littered with retail traders who will just not let go of the hope, and if they don't go for it, it could easily go to zero.
 

TheLodger

Well-known member
#16
It picked up a little by the end of trading it's now back up to 4.96p but still a 5.36% fall on the day.

Could well have been a good opportunity for some to have made up some losses.
 

HundredRoom

Well-known member
#18
Always an opportunity

Crispin Odey’s investment firm has said it will vote against any Anglo American offer for Sirius Minerals that is not designated as “final”.
In an email to the management of Sirius and Anglo American, Odey Asset Management said it does not believe that Anglo’s current offer represents fair value for Sirius shareholders.
Read more: Anglo American makes £405m bid for Sirius Minerals
It said it will therefore only commit to vote in favour of any bid priced at 7p or above.
Last month Anglo American agreed a £405m rescue deal with the board of the embattled company, who has been under pressure to come up with alternative funding for its North Yorkshire potash project.
 
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Cardiffdaffs

Well-known member
#19
Always an opportunity

Crispin Odey’s investment firm has said it will vote against any Anglo American offer for Sirius Minerals that is not designated as “final”.
In an email to the management of Sirius and Anglo American, Odey Asset Management said it does not believe that Anglo’s current offer represents fair value for Sirius shareholders.
Read more: Anglo American makes £405m bid for Sirius Minerals
It said it will therefore only commit to vote in favour of any bid priced at 7p or above.
Last month Anglo American agreed a £405m rescue deal with the board of the embattled company, who has been under pressure to come up with alternative funding for its North Yorkshire potash project.
Cant help feeling a bit cynical when a hedge fund gets involved and plays with people’s livelihoods when we know their main motive is to make a quick buck.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...l?shareToken=0d96aa863d43c2f4835659ae7c003d03
 
#20
This is a scandal and shows how money men can manipulate the share price at the expence of all the private investors who got the project this far.
 
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