Sirius

#1
Just got notification from broker that I have to vote one way or the other, or indeed not vote at all, what's everyone doing?
I am lucky at buying £1000 worth at .10p and then another £1000 worth at 3.01p so only in for about £200 if sold at the agreed 5.5p
 
#8
It might be factoring in the possibility of it being rejected and them going bust, also including for the small possibility that it could be rescued some other way (which isn't going to happen by the sounds of it).

If the offer is absolutely 100% guaranteed to be 5.5p, and 100% will be accepted, then the share price could be a tiny bit lower,, allowing for trading fees and a catastrophe that stops the project altogether.

With the price at 4.76 a very rough way to look at it could be:
Probability of 5.5p = 85% x 5.5p = 4.6p
Probability of going bust = 14.8% x 0p = 0p
Probability of somebody else saving it and getting to 50p = 0.2% x 50 = 0.1p

Total: 4.7p
Note: This isn't the best way of looking at it, but is a quick way of assessing value from probability

It could be free money if you think the buyout will definitely go ahead, but there really must be lots of people that just won't accept defeat, and want it to go to zero.
 
#15
Apologies you are right. Its 10,000 shares that would make you £80. That's a considerable sum less.
Aye, about £1,500 less, after fees.

10k buy at 4.75 and sell at 5.5 is about £1,600 profit, minus fees.

I wouldn't do it mind, as Sirius is littered with retail traders who will just not let go of the hope, and if they don't go for it, it could easily go to zero.