Selling one to buy four

Gramsci

Gramsci

Well-known member
The model quoted often that is used by Brentford and Brighton. When selling your best asset don’t spend it all on like for like but buy four or five underpriced potential stars.
So sell Akpom for £12 million
And buy Latte Lath, Rogers, Dieng & Engels
Then sell Rogers for £15 million
And buy Azaz, Conway, Morris, Hamilton & Burgzorg
Then sell Latte Lath for £18 million….
A process of gradually strengthening the squad is the model.
 
Gramsci said:
The model quoted often that is used by Brentford and Brighton. When selling your best asset don’t spend it all on like for like but buy four or five underpriced potential stars.
So sell Akpom for £12 million
And buy Latte Lath, Rogers, Dieng & Engels
Then sell Rogers for £15 million
And buy Azaz, Conway, Morris, Hamilton & Burgzorg
Then sell Latte Lath for £18 million….
A process of gradually strengthening the squad is the model.
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Agreed, every time though you increase the ceiling you are prepared to pay. So when we sold Akpom, the highest priced signing was Lath £4m, when we sold Rogers it was 5m for Conway. I’d expect that figure to keep creeping up. Brentford eventually made so much money they could spend £9m on a cf who got them up
 
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AytonMews said:
Problem with the last couple of times is we sell in Jan then buy 4 the next summer.

Totally derails our season.
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I didn't think our season was really on the rails last season.
And we did bring in Azaz; Rogers was on a meteoric assent at the time, and I don't think we could have replaced him with anyone turning in those levels of performance straight away, but I'd have to say Azaz has been a damn fine signing all the same.
 
It's frustrating losing players in January. I still don't think lath will go unless we get a significant offer.

I would expect the club to ask him to stay until the summer.

I don't think 18 million will force the club's hand. It then may come down to how lath feels about staying.
 
Gramsci said:
The model quoted often that is used by Brentford and Brighton. When selling your best asset don’t spend it all on like for like but buy four or five underpriced potential stars.
So sell Akpom for £12 million
And buy Latte Lath, Rogers, Dieng & Engels
Then sell Rogers for £15 million
And buy Azaz, Conway, Morris, Hamilton & Burgzorg
Then sell Latte Lath for £18 million….
A process of gradually strengthening the squad is the model.
Click to expand...
You use the word potential. It's always potential with this club and we seem to be treading water. It's 21 years since we won a cup and we've been in thus division for 15 years out of the last 16 or whatever it is.
 
Don't think thats how it works , as your swapping one wage for 4 and budgets are based around wages and not transfer fees
 
Steve Bee said:
You use the word potential. It's always potential with this club and we seem to be treading water. It's 21 years since we won a cup and we've been in thus division for 15 years out of the last 16 or whatever it is.
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We didn’t even have potential 4 years ago. We have seen the squad improving year on year, it was always likely to be a 5+ year project because our squad was so poor back then.

Back in 2020 our squad (without loanees or kids) was

Archer, Stojanovic
Dijksteel, Spence, Fischer, Bola, Coulson
Fry, Hall, McNair
Howson, Moray, Tavernier, Saville
Browne, Johnson, Jones
Akpom, Assombalonga, Fletcher

That’s a very very poor side, and very little value. Akpom was poor at that time, Spence and Tav were worth more than the rest of the squad put together. Realistically just Spence and Tav and Akpom were prem capable in the future although none were at that time.

We’re light years ahead of that now, and will improve again with another sale and Rav, Hackney, Morris, Lath could all play prem level already. Azaz, Conway, are not far off it.

If lath goes we will improve three positions while maybe going back a bit at cf
 
Gunslinger said:
Don't think thats how it works , as your swapping one wage for 4 and budgets are based around wages and not transfer fees
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If we sign four we will be selling/loaning another three out to release wage budget and free up space…also some of the sale transfer fee will be used for wages
 
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BoroMart said:
Agreed, every time though you increase the ceiling you are prepared to pay. So when we sold Akpom, the highest priced signing was Lath £4m, when we sold Rogers it was 5m for Conway. I’d expect that figure to keep creeping up. Brentford eventually made so much money they could spend £9m on a cf who got them up
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There is definitely an attempt at a ratcheting effect though we probably also run into wage ceiling at some point. If we buy someone valued at £9m then we'll likely be competing for their signature with teams who are willing and able to offer them more than £20k/week. Although our wage bill did go up last season and almost certainly will do again, we're running into a ceiling where can't safely increase much more and it does look like we have an informal salary cap in place.

By the standards of Championship clubs without parachute payments we have been spending large amounts over the last 12 months, in the range of £4m-£5m for our most expensive players. The likes of Morris and Conway are going to be eyeing £15k/week as a minimum plus some decent performance-related bonuses.

My personal theory is that if Lath goes we won't necessarily buy a direct replacement. I think we might spend £5-£6m on a player to be first choice elsewhere, promote Conway to first choice centre-forward and either loan a back-up or spend £1-£2m on a back-up striker. I would expect us to spend about 1/2 of what the sales bring in and save the rest for summer when we know which league we're playing in.
 
Steve Bee said:
You use the word potential. It's always potential with this club and we seem to be treading water. It's 21 years since we won a cup and we've been in thus division for 15 years out of the last 16 or whatever it is.
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Without the money to compete with PL teams how else would you progress? - There's no magic wand.

The way to progress is to do exactly what we're doing.

Morgan Rogers - bought for £1m - sell for £10m - £9m profit.
Invest that £9m in ELL and other players - ELL bought for £5m - sell for £16m - £11m profit.
Do the same with RVDB eventually - cost £2m (guess) - potential resale of £12m (guess) - another £10m profit.

The value of our squad has significantly increased in the past 4 years since we started this recruitment model.

Would you rather we just overpaid for the best striker in the league?.... because we tried that a few years ago with Britt Assombalonga and it ended up costing us close to £30m in fees and wages.
 
Bruce said:
There is definitely an attempt at a ratcheting effect though we probably also run into wage ceiling at some point. If we buy someone valued at £9m then we'll likely be competing for their signature with teams who are willing and able to offer them more than £20k/week. Although our wage bill did go up last season and almost certainly will do again, we're running into a ceiling where can't safely increase much more and it does look like we have an informal salary cap in place
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Absolutely

There comes a point where we sell someone for 20m but only sign 2 players for 8m each because we need to use the rest for wages
 
Ash88 said:
The way to progress is to do exactly what we're doing.

Morgan Rogers - bought for £1m - sell for £10m - £9m profit.
Invest that £9m in ELL and other players - ELL bought for £5m - sell for £16m - £11m profit.
Do the same with RVDB eventually - cost £2m (guess) - potential resale of £12m (guess) - another £10m profit
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I reckon by the summer we will have tripled the player asset values since Scott come to the club. Looking at that squad 4 years ago it had a value of about 40m, todays squad is currently around 100m, and that has been done just by flipping players.
 
We have no option given revenue and funding constraints but to buy to develop, then sell for profit in order to reinvest.
But at some point there should be a ratchet up in quality. The squad can only be so big.
 
Gunslinger said:
Don't think thats how it works , as your swapping one wage for 4 and budgets are based around wages and not transfer fees
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no.. the transfer fee means that you can afford to upgrade in certain positions.
without overcomplicating it with wages

Latte Lath in -£4m
Latte Lath out +£18m
--------------------------
£14m profit
--------------------------
Jonny Howson out of contract end of the season
Tommy Smith out of contract end of the season
Matt Clarke out of contract end of the season

So.. nor this is just an example btw...

Replace Latte Lath with.. lets say Ricky-Jade Jones £2m
(Conway is first choice and RJJ is development)

Replace Tommy Smith with.. lets say Max Johnston £1.5m

Replace Matt Clarke with.. lets say George Edmundson £700k

Replace Jonny Howson with.. lets say Tyler Morton £7m

Isaiah Jones has left.. how about we bring in Ryan Giles for £2.5m


So.. you've recovered your initial investment..
you've upgraded your squad
£5m still in the kitty from the Isaiah Jones and assets that can easily double in value.

£13.7m.. pay THAT and invest the profit.. exponential investment.. some assets will fail.. but we're covering ourselves pretty well with the targets we are going for. Young.. from little usedd markets and with great potential.
 
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