Scotland Wales and even NI all have a clear plan for the holiday period

[motownjunk]

Why can't these essential services test twice a day with LFT's. As I mentioned on a previous thread the midwife department at James Cook were testing every day before shift they told me. Surely that rules out isolating at home for 7-10 days.

The LFT doesn't test positive straight after exposure to infection can take up 7 days usually 3-4 days after exposure. This tallies with my own personal experience. Tested negative for 4 days after exposure on the 4th day negative in the morning then positive in the evening. Symptoms started 24 hours after that.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

I think we will never know at the time of restrictions being put in place or lifted as to whether they were the 'right' thing to do.

It may have been better under Labour, but one person's better is another person's worse.

I don't agree completely with what Wales or Scotland have done, but at least people know where they stand.

Nearly 2 years into this, we should have leaders who have a plan as to what we will do in the next week or two. It's more likely that they'll introduce last minute measures that not only don't do what the scientists think is right; they also upset people who don't want new restrictions AND those who will go along with them but wanted more notice.

I get the feeling that anything else that comes into force will be at the whim of a PM who doesn't want to 'spoil Christmas' and then won't want to 'spoil New Year'. With the numbers involved both in the health service and the wider economy, that's no way to run a country.

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

How can the Labour Party be criticised for anything Covid-19 related, particularly in England.

It seems some folk are parroting the Tory mantra 'what if we had Corbyn and Abbott' etc.

Heard a similar d1ckhead on tv having a go at Starmer over the power cuts in Northumberland, not a mention of the imbecile government.

 

[boroPE]

Ok to all those defending the govt on this ask yourself

has the rest of the world got it wrong and wrong then ???

and England who are one of the only countries with zero restrictive measures in place got it right.???

The government couldnt win whichever way they went on this. Hopefully the news coming out over this is right and its a lot less severe. The people ive heard of with it maybe get a runny nose and headache at worst. You can stay in over Christmas if you want Zorro ?

 

[motownjunk]

The government couldnt win whichever way they went on this. Hopefully the news coming out over this is right and its a lot less severe. The people ive heard of with it maybe get a runny nose and headache at worst. You can stay in over Christmas if you want Zorro ?

No one knows what will be the correct approach. But lets be clear Wales Scotland and Northern Island have followed the science and erred on the cautious side because they don't have a load of angry back benchers after them and are not in danger of losing their jobs.

 

[Cambsred]

Labour being criticised 2 years into a pandemic because we don't have a robust plan/ response.

I despair.

 

[Nano]

I don't want to give them any credit but the government not having a plan and the government not telling us the plan are not necessarily the same thing. They might be, but not necessarily.

Early indications of the data from South Africa indicated that the variant isn't as big of a problem, especially if you've had the booster so they pushed ahead with that. Once our own data is published, and they will already have predictions of what it is likely to say, then those early forecasts may be way off. If those early indications were that hospitalisations were spiking rapidly then I think we would have had some announcements. As it is, the no plan but get boosted, be vigilant etc has caused a self-imposed lockdown which will have slowed transmission somewhat and they will have seen from the cases that we have had compared to the number of hospitalisations that it is not as severe. They also know people will be more willing to comply with restrictions after Xmas/NY so if the indications of the less severe variant are confirmed by the data then that ends up being the right thing to do. Cancelling Xmas again would not go down well with the public, not just the Tory backbenchers. Someone posted an Owen Jones article yesterday who couldn't be more anti-Tory and that article said that there was only about 25% public support for restrictions compared to 85% last year.

No one knows what will be the correct approach. But lets be clear Wales Scotland and Northern Island have followed the science and erred on the cautious side because they don't have a load of angry back benchers after them and are not in danger of losing their jobs.

They haven't followed the science though. The science is a model, not a prediction. It doesn't have any probability attached and it assumes the same level of hospitalisations as previous variants. Data from South Africa is showing that it causes fewer hospitalisations. Changing the model with that assumption would drastically change the numbers and shutting down will do more damage than good. This isn't like last year where we were all un-vaccinated. We, or at least the most vulnerable, are protected by 3 doses. Those other nations have followed the worst case model instead of the most probable.

 

[BoroFur]

The government couldnt win whichever way they went on this. Hopefully the news coming out over this is right and its a lot less severe. The people ive heard of with it maybe get a runny nose and headache at worst. You can stay in over Christmas if you want Zorro ?

Why the pile-on on Zorro? He's got an opinion the same as everybody else has.

 

[motownjunk]

I don't want to give them any credit but the government not having a plan and the government not telling us the plan are not necessarily the same thing. They might be, but not necessarily.

Early indications of the data from South Africa indicated that the variant isn't as big of a problem, especially if you've had the booster so they pushed ahead with that. Once our own data is published, and they will already have predictions of what it is likely to say, then those early forecasts may be way off. If those early indications were that hospitalisations were spiking rapidly then I think we would have had some announcements. As it is, the no plan but get boosted, be vigilant etc has caused a self-imposed lockdown which will have slowed transmission somewhat and they will have seen from the cases that we have had compared to the number of hospitalisations that it is not as severe. They also know people will be more willing to comply with restrictions after Xmas/NY so if the indications of the less severe variant are confirmed by the data then that ends up being the right thing to do. Cancelling Xmas again would not go down well with the public, not just the Tory backbenchers. Someone posted an Owen Jones article yesterday who couldn't be more anti-Tory and that article said that there was only about 25% public support for restrictions compared to 85% last year.



They haven't followed the science though. The science is a model, not a prediction. It doesn't have any probability attached and it assumes the same level of hospitalisations as previous variants. Data from South Africa is showing that it causes fewer hospitalisations. Changing the model with that assumption would drastically change the numbers and shutting down will do more damage than good. This isn't like last year where we were all un-vaccinated. We, or at least the most vulnerable, are protected by 3 doses. Those other nations have followed the worst case model instead of the most probable.

The problem is the consequences of getting it wrong are massive for England if the home nations get it wrong the consequences are a lot smaller, and also the fact things have to be done quite a way in advance of time to have any real effect. Risk management is all about possibility and scale of consequences. If Scotland Wales or Northern Ireland get it wrong some businesses lose some money and some people get a bit miffed. England get it wrong and you end up with 1000s and possible 10s of thousands of extra deaths and people with long term health problems.

 

[gregorgregorovich]

I don't want to give them any credit but the government not having a plan and the government not telling us the plan are not necessarily the same thing. They might be, but not necessarily.

Early indications of the data from South Africa indicated that the variant isn't as big of a problem, especially if you've had the booster so they pushed ahead with that. Once our own data is published, and they will already have predictions of what it is likely to say, then those early forecasts may be way off. If those early indications were that hospitalisations were spiking rapidly then I think we would have had some announcements. As it is, the no plan but get boosted, be vigilant etc has caused a self-imposed lockdown which will have slowed transmission somewhat and they will have seen from the cases that we have had compared to the number of hospitalisations that it is not as severe. They also know people will be more willing to comply with restrictions after Xmas/NY so if the indications of the less severe variant are confirmed by the data then that ends up being the right thing to do. Cancelling Xmas again would not go down well with the public, not just the Tory backbenchers. Someone posted an Owen Jones article yesterday who couldn't be more anti-Tory and that article said that there was only about 25% public support for restrictions compared to 85% last year.



They haven't followed the science though. The science is a model, not a prediction. It doesn't have any probability attached and it assumes the same level of hospitalisations as previous variants. Data from South Africa is showing that it causes fewer hospitalisations. Changing the model with that assumption would drastically change the numbers and shutting down will do more damage than good. This isn't like last year where we were all un-vaccinated. We, or at least the most vulnerable, are protected by 3 doses. Those other nations have followed the worst case model instead of the most probable.

I'm pretty sure someone posted either earlier on this thread or on another thread, the graphs showing 48 different modelling scenarios, all of which came up with predictions of what happens if we introduce restrictions or don't introduce them, or a varying set of mix and match or doing nothing. One graph might show the same level of hospitalisations as previous variants but the others didn't, they went up or down. depending on the different scenarios. I have no idea, what is the right thing to do, to lockdown or not, I know what my preference is obviously, but my personal circumstances are different to many other peoples. Hopefully the new studies bear out to be true and the new Omicron resistant vaccine is rolled out pronto along with the new anti viral drug that is getting mentioned. But, whilst not wishing to sound like a Tony Mowbray radio interview, we are where we are. Let's all stop calling each other and hope for a better New Year and better next year. Have the best Christmas that you can everybody and that hopefully starts with 3 points on Boxing Day.