Renewables

[zzzzz]

It's possibly feasible to replace the gas within the pipe infrastructure with hydrogen, if the pipes can take it, but most of our gas pipes are old, and the pipes within any one network can be a mix of steel, ductile iron, cast iron and polyethylene, and they're not really rated above 7-10 bar. I doubt any network is anywhere near ready, and to get them ready would take a while. Apparently a very small number are running on a lean mix of 20% hydrogen, but that's a million miles away from the whole country going on 50-100% etc.

There's zero chance of new hydrogen pipe infrastructure going in, it would be cheaper to put a wind turbine in everyone's garden. It took decades to get fibre to most of the country, and that ductwork was largely already in place. Largely just a case of pulling out one cable, feeding another in and adding a few surface mounted cabinets. 100's of meters of this a day can be done a day with a two man crew (not including the cabinets).

It would cost around £1,000/ mtr to put a hydrogen pipe in, on average, where a polyethylene pipe or telecom pipe can cost as little as £10/ mtr. Most utilities are in the £100/mtr range though, especially if it's larger contractors doing it. The problem with things like hydrogen pipes is the crazy design specs, it needs a lot of people and companies in the chain.

3 High Pressure Schemes are at FEED and each one under-rated the whole life delivery costs to get Govt funding......... to the extent that the numbers were almost fraudulent.
New H2 systems could be built and the high & medium pressure pipelines amout to almost 2000km... the gas company have done the Feasilbility studies........ but the biggest reason why they wouldn't be delivered is people.
They aren't there. The last large pipeline scheme built in the UK was a decade ago. People have either retired, died, gone overseas or gone on to other things......... IR35 doesn't help.

There is ZERO skillset within the major gas players as well. The guys at the top have no conception of what's required and obviously BEIS are clowns. The Consultants they have doing the high level high level technical, risk and value assessments....... Ernst & Young....... accountants.

I do think H2 could be the answer in the long term but those driving it within the Industry & Govt are idiots so the opportunity will probably be lost.

 

[ThatFragranceGuy]

SO it can look like people don't understand the need for renewables?

I gotcha!

I mean I can copy and paste my previous post if it helps you so we can avoid a circular argument? But I'm sure it won't stop you as per.

 

[Andy_W]

Anyone got a wind turbine on their house/ property?

I might look at one for our next company premises, or when I finally do my last move to a "forever" house. Depends which works out the most cost effective with that or a major solar setup.

The way I see it, is installation costs now are fixed (so no inflation on that, other than maintenance), and they pay back much faster when energy prices go up, which they are going to when the caps increase in April and October. They will possibly pay themselves back in half the time, based on the rates that are coming. Then when factoring in that inflation is going to carry on, with energy, the time taken to pay back will decrease each year.

If you have the room, and can supply a surplus, then it could possibly make a fair amount of money. Everyone can't does it as they won't have the space, but if enough do it, then prices should come down for all.

 

[Billy69_uk]

I love the idea of a decentralised grid, where local and individual energy needs can be met by renewable means.

What the average house supply these days ? 10 kw? its not that much is it?

 

[SmallTown]

I mean I can copy and paste my previous post if it helps you so we can avoid a circular argument? But I'm sure it won't stop you as per.

No need for that

 

[ThatFragranceGuy]

I love the idea of a decentralised grid, where local and individual energy needs can be met by renewable means.

What the average house supply these days ? 10 kw? its not that much is it?

Solar produces about 3-4kw a day on average but you only really benefit if you can either a) use it or b) store it until you can. The SEG payments are not great compared to the old FIT payments

 

[Andy_W]

It's nowhere near neutral though. It is actually much worse than that. You have to consider the opportunity cost. 7% above inflation return is the long term trend investing in the stock market. Over 15 years that would be (£8k upfront cost, £100pa maintenance) would return £11k (or £6k over 10 years) which is far better than the £1500 return that a solar system will get you. A more conservative 3% average return would be £2,500 over 15 years (£1,500 over 10).

Doesn't seem like a good investment at all, even with rising electricity prices.

Good post, thinking outside the box

The problem is stock market won't out do inflation, when inflation is where it is now, and it takes a massive beating when energy cost is the main driver of that inflation, and there's little chance that energy prices will get to anywhere near what they were. The S&P is ~10% down since the turn of the year, and was 20% down at one point. It will of course recover, but at what rate is anyone's guess, but we won't see another 2020-2021 surge.

With inflation extremely high and interest rates going up, people have a lot less money, the market returns to growth stocks (or runs for cover) and don't pump in on stocks which are more risk, but have better return (long term). It's these more risky stocks which help drag the market average up, but investing in an index will cover this, and diversify it.

For people who are rich, who can afford to take the risk of their portfolio going from 100k to 80k, and know it will be 120k in a few years that's fine, but most with a smaller amount of money can't hack the long term ups and downs (even though there are a lot more ups than downs). You need to have money (disposable), to make the most money, as you will know.

In an ideal world, the government could give out interest free loans for people to get their own renewables, which helps with energy security, helps with emissions, solves the problem of the initial cash outlay, will eventually stop energy inflation, and stops the risk of someone investing 3-10k on renewables for a property they may move out of (this is the biggest risk I think). But people taking a loan out for renewables, or using their own cash with no incentives is going to be difficult for people with little money, as is going all in on the stock market.

Now looks like it could be a decent time to jump in on the market mind (albeit there will still be big ups and downs), but it's been bad looking at the last few months losses. Hard to double down after that, and newbies will look at the graphs and think "no way".

Electric was 15p, then quickly 20p (which is what most comparisons were based on) is going to 30p in April and then possibly 40p onwards from there. I can't see many reasons why that could get that price down, soon after either, not here, with little oil and gas. We could be looking at 4-5% inflation on everything, on top of that 40p (and energy inflation worse), for a long while, which seriously effects the calcs for whether having your own renewables is worth it.

 

[Andy_W]

3 High Pressure Schemes are at FEED and each one under-rated the whole life delivery costs to get Govt funding......... to the extent that the numbers were almost fraudulent.
New H2 systems could be built and the high & medium pressure pipelines amout to almost 2000km... the gas company have done the Feasilbility studies........ but the biggest reason why they wouldn't be delivered is people.
They aren't there. The last large pipeline scheme built in the UK was a decade ago. People have either retired, died, gone overseas or gone on to other things......... IR35 doesn't help.

There is ZERO skillset within the major gas players as well. The guys at the top have no conception of what's required and obviously BEIS are clowns. The Consultants they have doing the high level high level technical, risk and value assessments....... Ernst & Young....... accountants.

I do think H2 could be the answer in the long term but those driving it within the Industry & Govt are idiots so the opportunity will probably be lost.

Yeah, they are certainly under-rated, as a steel HP pipe can certainly take more than 16 bar or whatever they run at. I doubt they would want to risk jacking up that pressure, on older pipes mind. Also there's a pretty big risk with the damage leaks can do at 16 bar, never mind anything higher, or with different contents.

They couldn't use the existing gas HDPE network though, which is the majority of the localised delivery. HDPE can only take 7 bar at max for some of the pipes, but a lot of pipes use SDR 17, which is the thinner wall variant, so this goes down to 3 bar. I don't think those pipe specs would be anywhere near good enough.

Yeah, they don't have the people, or the high level knowledge, and they couldn't replicate the gas network for anywhere near the same cost, it's impossible. It would likely be 100x the cost, and take 10x the time, and obviously that was done over a very long time anyway.

I do a lot of consultation on major projects for all the utilities, and the gas people are probably more switched on than the others to be honest, but they are a lot stricter with their network, and working around it. The guys on the ground are quite good, and practical, but medium to top level they don't have a clue about practicalities.

 

[Nano]

Good post, thinking outside the box

The problem is stock market won't out do inflation, when inflation is where it is now, and it takes a massive beating when energy cost is the main driver of that inflation, and there's little chance that energy prices will get to anywhere near what they were. The S&P is ~10% down since the turn of the year, and was 20% down at one point. It will of course recover, but at what rate is anyone's guess, but we won't see another 2020-2021 surge.

With inflation extremely high and interest rates going up, people have a lot less money, the market returns to growth stocks (or runs for cover) and don't pump in on stocks which are more risk, but have better return (long term). It's these more risky stocks which help drag the market average up, but investing in an index will cover this, and diversify it.

For people who are rich, who can afford to take the risk of their portfolio going from 100k to 80k, and know it will be 120k in a few years that's fine, but most with a smaller amount of money can't hack the long term ups and downs (even though there are a lot more ups than downs). You need to have money (disposable), to make the most money, as you will know.

In an ideal world, the government could give out interest free loans for people to get their own renewables, which helps with energy security, helps with emissions, solves the problem of the initial cash outlay, will eventually stop energy inflation, and stops the risk of someone investing 3-10k on renewables for a property they may move out of (this is the biggest risk I think). But people taking a loan out for renewables, or using their own cash with no incentives is going to be difficult for people with little money, as is going all in on the stock market.

Now looks like it could be a decent time to jump in on the market mind (albeit there will still be big ups and downs), but it's been bad looking at the last few months losses. Hard to double down after that, and newbies will look at the graphs and think "no way".

Electric was 15p, then quickly 20p (which is what most comparisons were based on) is going to 30p in April and then possibly 40p onwards from there. I can't see many reasons why that could get that price down, soon after either, not here, with little oil and gas. We could be looking at 4-5% inflation on everything, on top of that 40p (and energy inflation worse), for a long while, which seriously effects the calcs for whether having your own renewables is worth it.

7% a year is the historic above inflation long term trend. Global indexes means if some countries like the US are performing poorly then others will be flying so it balances out. All eggs are not in one basket in a global index tracker. Yes, it's down currently but over a long term investment, which 10-15 years would be then the average should be around 7% above inflation per year. It's how it has always been. Short term blips happen but long term gives you time to ride it out. However, I know it isn't guaranteed which is why I also included the 3% increase because that is a very pessimistic view of long term investments and even that beats solar panel investment. You don't need to be talking £100k portfolios, just the equivalent upfront cost of solar which in this case is about £8k.

Gas prices are driving electricity prices. If the war in Ukraine rumbles on for years then it will be a major issue on prices. If it is over quickly and markets open up again then prices will drop. I would be more confident of stock market values increasing over time than energy prices doubling every year. There will be a ceiling in which the government are forced to step in (we should already be there to be honest) so they can't climb indefinitely.

I definitely agree with the point about the government giving out loans. We shouldn't be being sold something that might break even after 15 years. They should be offering everyone with a suitable property the panels to ease pressure on the grid and for environmental reasons. There is never going to be a big take-up if they only expect people with £8k lump sums sitting around doing nothing.

Hi Nano,

I’m really interested in the maths of all this and I’m really grateful for everyone’s views.

My thinking on it is that it’s not really comparable to a stocks and shares investment as we already have a huge and rising energy overhead to consider.

For me there’s basically two boxes. One is how much you need to pay for gas and electric annually. This is dead money. Im paying a lot currently and it looks like that will double by the end of the year. So I want to be rid of that box if I can.

The other box is whatever the annual aggregated cost of solar would be over a set period. For me it would make sense to have a diverter and battery rather than export as key operating principle. My missus and I both work from home so it’s easy to say put washing and dishwasher on during the day.

So in the two boxes:
1) Existing fuel cost per annum = 5k (let’s say that becomes 8/9k with the estimated cost rises).
2) cost of solar - 5k install plus another 5 for battery etc. Plus say £100 annual maintenance.

So over 10 years

Box A is annually 8 or 9k (80/90k)
Box B is aggregated as 1.1k annually (11k)

The question for me is “can I totally remove box A with the existence of solar”. That’s what I’m looking to do, and the efficacy of the system then becomes really crucial to the case. I’d have 12/14 panels.

Plus I’d expect to have an EV in that 10 years so there’s also the rising cost of petrol to think about.

Really grateful for any thoughts from anyone who has solar already and thanks to everyone so far for all their thinking

They are comparable because they are both investments and you are just comparing which one would have the better return. With the S&S you then use the return you make to pay your energy bills and you are left with a surplus. Might not work like that in the real world but that's just how you evaluate different options for comparability.

I don't think you'll get to a point where you can totally remove Box A. Solar is obviously not very effective when we have no sun (night and winter) so you would need big batteries. I'm not sure if batteries even help in the winter. Someone else will know but I don't think there is enough sunlight in winter full stop.

 

[ThatFragranceGuy]

Good post, thinking outside the box

The problem is stock market won't out do inflation, when inflation is where it is now, and it takes a massive beating when energy cost is the main driver of that inflation, and there's little chance that energy prices will get to anywhere near what they were. The S&P is ~10% down since the turn of the year, and was 20% down at one point. It will of course recover, but at what rate is anyone's guess, but we won't see another 2020-2021 surge.

With inflation extremely high and interest rates going up, people have a lot less money, the market returns to growth stocks (or runs for cover) and don't pump in on stocks which are more risk, but have better return (long term). It's these more risky stocks which help drag the market average up, but investing in an index will cover this, and diversify it.

For people who are rich, who can afford to take the risk of their portfolio going from 100k to 80k, and know it will be 120k in a few years that's fine, but most with a smaller amount of money can't hack the long term ups and downs (even though there are a lot more ups than downs). You need to have money (disposable), to make the most money, as you will know.

In an ideal world, the government could give out interest free loans for people to get their own renewables, which helps with energy security, helps with emissions, solves the problem of the initial cash outlay, will eventually stop energy inflation, and stops the risk of someone investing 3-10k on renewables for a property they may move out of (this is the biggest risk I think). But people taking a loan out for renewables, or using their own cash with no incentives is going to be difficult for people with little money, as is going all in on the stock market.

Now looks like it could be a decent time to jump in on the market mind (albeit there will still be big ups and downs), but it's been bad looking at the last few months losses. Hard to double down after that, and newbies will look at the graphs and think "no way".

Electric was 15p, then quickly 20p (which is what most comparisons were based on) is going to 30p in April and then possibly 40p onwards from there. I can't see many reasons why that could get that price down, soon after either, not here, with little oil and gas. We could be looking at 4-5% inflation on everything, on top of that 40p (and energy inflation worse), for a long while, which seriously effects the calcs for whether having your own renewables is worth it.

But if you're not home to use it when it is sunny, you don't really benefit. The SEG payments for feeding it into the grid are piecemeal (and while no plans exist to stop them; they could be withdrawn) compared to the savings of using the power as and when it's generated which is why it's coming up as a loss to me if I am not at home during the day.

You have to not only be at home but base your activities around using the power then as it's generated so washing cycles etc. the only way around that is battery storage but that will obliterate any savings because batteries are expensive and have a life span far below those of the panels so would need replacing a few times over that 25 year lifespan.

Solar equipment warranties generally last 10 years so after 14 years if it breaks down and you have to buy a new system you're screwed. Bit like a boiler I guess.

MSE has a table that shows even if price cap rises by 40% in October it's still 10 years payback time before you're seeing a benefit, that's a pretty big gamble imo I am lucky enough to work from home but don't have the time to do all the washing etc during those hours, and the price per therm was already coming down before putin stepped in. There isn't less gas, it's market forces affecting the price and concerns of people weaning off Russian supplies, over 25 year panel lifespan you'd like to think Russia will no longer be at war and investment on renewables would ramp up, but as a consumer I don't think a bet on 10+ years is something that is for me although i'll keep looking at it it costs come down or subsidies are given.

Likewise wind I would have no qualms having a turbine at my house but when I read the numbers they are expensive to install and you will want a battery again to store what you aren't using to make best use of it. Again, no brainers for new builds where it's wrapped up in the overall cost of the house but difficult to make it work as a purchase imo

 

[ThatFragranceGuy]

7% a year is the historic above inflation long term trend. Global indexes means if some countries like the US are performing poorly then others will be flying so it balances out. All eggs are not in one basket in a global index tracker. Yes, it's down currently but over a long term investment, which 10-15 years would be then the average should be around 7% above inflation per year. It's how it has always been. Short term blips happen but long term gives you time to ride it out. However, I know it isn't guaranteed which is why I also included the 3% increase because that is a very pessimistic view of long term investments and even that beats solar panel investment. You don't need to be talking £100k portfolios, just the equivalent upfront cost of solar which in this case is about £8k.

Gas prices are driving electricity prices. If the war in Ukraine rumbles on for years then it will be a major issue on prices. If it is over quickly and markets open up again then prices will drop. I would be more confident of stock market values increasing over time than energy prices doubling every year. There will be a ceiling in which the government are forced to step in (we should already be there to be honest) so they can't climb indefinitely.

I definitely agree with the point about the government giving out loans. We shouldn't be being sold something that might break even after 15 years. They should be offering everyone with a suitable property the panels to ease pressure on the grid and for environmental reasons. There is never going to be a big take-up if they only expect people with £8k lump sums sitting around doing nothing.


They are comparable because they are both investments and you are just comparing which one would have the better return. With the S&S you then use the return you make to pay your energy bills and you are left with a surplus. Might not work like that in the real world but that's just how you evaluate different options for comparability.

I don't think you'll get to a point where you can totally remove Box A. Solar is obviously not very effective when we have no sun (night and winter) so you would need big batteries. I'm not sure if batteries even help in the winter. Someone else will know but I don't think there is enough sunlight in winter full stop.

Winter is obviously worst time for it but also when you need the heat most. They work on light, not the heat, but less hours of daylight in winter. You will get some usage but it's low. More wind in winter so that can help but then added cost of a turbine and, as you say, battery costs

 

[zzzzz]

Yeah, they are certainly under-rated, as a steel HP pipe can certainly take more than 16 bar or whatever they run at. I doubt they would want to risk jacking up that pressure, on older pipes mind. Also there's a pretty big risk with the damage leaks can do at 16 bar, never mind anything higher, or with different contents.

They couldn't use the existing gas HDPE network though, which is the majority of the localised delivery. HDPE can only take 7 bar at max for some of the pipes, but a lot of pipes use SDR 17, which is the thinner wall variant, so this goes down to 3 bar. I don't think those pipe specs would be anywhere near good enough.

Yeah, they don't have the people, or the high level knowledge, and they couldn't replicate the gas network for anywhere near the same cost, it's impossible. It would likely be 100x the cost, and take 10x the time, and obviously that was done over a very long time anyway.

I do a lot of consultation on major projects for all the utilities, and the gas people are probably more switched on than the others to be honest, but they are a lot stricter with their network, and working around it. The guys on the ground are quite good, and practical, but medium to top level they don't have a clue about practicalities.

The standard HP gas network is rated at 70 Bar and many of them run at that. They're creaking at the seams. The last generation large diameter pipelines are rated at 85Bar and sometimes are line packed at that.
We run our high pressure gas system at high pressures for storage purposes rather than demand volume.
HDPE pipe is better suited to H2 than steel although as you say at lower pressures.

 

[Warwickboro]

Hi Nano,

I’m really interested in the maths of all this and I’m really grateful for everyone’s views.

My thinking on it is that it’s not really comparable to a stocks and shares investment as we already have a huge and rising energy overhead to consider.

For me there’s basically two boxes. One is how much you need to pay for gas and electric annually. This is dead money. Im paying a lot currently and it looks like that will double by the end of the year. So I want to be rid of that box if I can.

The other box is whatever the annual aggregated cost of solar would be over a set period. For me it would make sense to have a diverter and battery rather than export as key operating principle. My missus and I both work from home so it’s easy to say put washing and dishwasher on during the day.

So in the two boxes:
1) Existing fuel cost per annum = 5k (let’s say that becomes 8/9k with the estimated cost rises).
2) cost of solar - 5k install plus another 5 for battery etc. Plus say £100 annual maintenance.

So over 10 years

Box A is annually 8 or 9k (80/90k)
Box B is aggregated as 1.1k annually (11k)

The question for me is “can I totally remove box A with the existence of solar”. That’s what I’m looking to do, and the efficacy of the system then becomes really crucial to the case. I’d have 12/14 panels.

Plus I’d expect to have an EV in that 10 years so there’s also the rising cost of petrol to think about.

Really grateful for any thoughts from anyone who has solar already and thanks to everyone so far for all their thinking

Hi, I work in this industry at present the most efficient panels you can buy, even on a South facing roof would not be enough to self sustain yet (even in summer), there are actually panels in the lab right now that have managed to achieve 120% efficiency, but these will be years off production and will no doubt lose some off that efficiency when out of the lab. In essence we will have to rely on gas in so e form for a while yet while renewable come on stream. Plenty of innovation s in the pipeline but none are ready yet, and the existing housing stock isnt yet suitable. This may sound awful to so e but we will need to increase wind turbines rapidly and at the same time we may need to temporarily increase gas extraction (the good thing about that is not importing it is more carbon friendly)

 

[Warwickboro]

I love the idea of a decentralised grid, where local and individual energy needs can be met by renewable means.

What the average house supply these days ? 10 kw? its not that much is it?

Decentralised grids are a good idea, renewable will not do all the work but should do the main grunt work, backed up by a well insulated property and a mains gas grid that uses a good blend of hydrogen, RDME, and natural gas. Finally a very efficient boiler. That should see emissions plummet. The one thing that will be a disaster if we continue with the rhetoric are ASHPs

 

[Andy_W]

7% a year is the historic above inflation long term trend. Global indexes means if some countries like the US are performing poorly then others will be flying so it balances out. All eggs are not in one basket in a global index tracker. Yes, it's down currently but over a long term investment, which 10-15 years would be then the average should be around 7% above inflation per year. It's how it has always been. Short term blips happen but long term gives you time to ride it out. However, I know it isn't guaranteed which is why I also included the 3% increase because that is a very pessimistic view of long term investments and even that beats solar panel investment. You don't need to be talking £100k portfolios, just the equivalent upfront cost of solar which in this case is about £8k.

Gas prices are driving electricity prices. If the war in Ukraine rumbles on for years then it will be a major issue on prices. If it is over quickly and markets open up again then prices will drop. I would be more confident of stock market values increasing over time than energy prices doubling every year. There will be a ceiling in which the government are forced to step in (we should already be there to be honest) so they can't climb indefinitely.

I definitely agree with the point about the government giving out loans. We shouldn't be being sold something that might break even after 15 years. They should be offering everyone with a suitable property the panels to ease pressure on the grid and for environmental reasons. There is never going to be a big take-up if they only expect people with £8k lump sums sitting around doing nothing.

Yes, I totally get that, S&P is around 10%, inflation around 3% etc. But in times of hyperinflation, and energy hyper-hyper inflation it could be nowhere near as good, comparatively. It could take 20 years before normal inflation across the board meets the inflation which energy will have had by the time this plays out. But, this is comparing energy inflation, not just standard inflation.

As for stocks etc, previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance etc etc, as we've all heard many times. But long term trends can only be used going forward if the circumstances are similar, and loads of previous growth was due to the population growing, but the birth rate is now going backwards in the Western World. This could pan out so there will still be growth in emerging markets, but the biggest player in that is china, and it's not even legal to own Chinese stocks (according to china), any stocks owned go via third parties which China turns a blind eye too. Hopefully this continues for those with exposure to China (I've got a bit), but it could one day go to zero, albeit that's unlikely, but a world war could do it. Nobody lumps all their investments in china though, unless they're Chinese, and live in china.

The S&P etc has had massive growth since covid mind, which is unsustainable, and the bubble could still burst on that.

Yes, 40% of our electric comes from gas, so they're linked of course. I don't see the Western World going back to Russian Oil and Gas, not to anywhere near what it was, and everyone will be trying to get away from it. They won't want to be reliant on dodgy states, so I think the UK and others won't want to rely on the middle east for too long either. The USA can look after themselves of course.

Prices were high before the war kicked off though, as demand was high, when demand is higher the more expensive wells get put back into production. There's going to be a lot of countries competing for reliable gas (and oil), from the more expensive wells.

Don't get me wrong mind, I think now is a time to go in on both (stocks and own energy supplies), if you can, but you will know how scary it is for amateurs lumping in the market after they've gone off a cliff, and the cliff could get bigger.

I don't see gas coming down to levels it was before covid, and electric will probably never go below 30p again, because of this. It may get "cheaper" compared to wages etc eventually but I think that will be a long way away, maybe 10-20 years.

I think the forecast on most solar now is 10-13 year payback, but I don't think that covers the price cap increase in April, and certainly doesn't cover the September/ October one which could be even worse. These are the numbers we should be looking at for comparisons I think, as that's what's likely to stick until we get our own energy supplies. Who knows, maybe the north sea wells start looking profitable again, or we nationalise that and do it at cost for security, or we and others go full pelt on fracking. Something needs to be done though, and quickly.

 

[Andy_W]

But if you're not home to use it when it is sunny, you don't really benefit. The SEG payments for feeding it into the grid are piecemeal (and while no plans exist to stop them; they could be withdrawn) compared to the savings of using the power as and when it's generated which is why it's coming up as a loss to me if I am not at home during the day.

You have to not only be at home but base your activities around using the power then as it's generated so washing cycles etc. the only way around that is battery storage but that will obliterate any savings because batteries are expensive and have a life span far below those of the panels so would need replacing a few times over that 25 year lifespan.

Solar equipment warranties generally last 10 years so after 14 years if it breaks down and you have to buy a new system you're screwed. Bit like a boiler I guess.

MSE has a table that shows even if price cap rises by 40% in October it's still 10 years payback time before you're seeing a benefit, that's a pretty big gamble imo I am lucky enough to work from home but don't have the time to do all the washing etc during those hours, and the price per therm was already coming down before putin stepped in. There isn't less gas, it's market forces affecting the price and concerns of people weaning off Russian supplies, over 25 year panel lifespan you'd like to think Russia will no longer be at war and investment on renewables would ramp up, but as a consumer I don't think a bet on 10+ years is something that is for me although i'll keep looking at it it costs come down or subsidies are given.

Likewise wind I would have no qualms having a turbine at my house but when I read the numbers they are expensive to install and you will want a battery again to store what you aren't using to make best use of it. Again, no brainers for new builds where it's wrapped up in the overall cost of the house but difficult to make it work as a purchase imo

Home working is up though, and should stay up, and appliances should get more efficient, as should housing as older ones get modernised and the cost of energy makes a lot more people think about where theirs is being wasted. Solar needs a battery though, or some other form of cheaper energy storage, even something less efficient (maybe thermal store for hot water etc, also cutting down gas use).

The SEG payments are a joke, they should be at the market rate for generation. Obviously this will never match the providers costs, as the grid is expensive to maintain.

A battery will last ages if trickled in and trickled out, and only used to meet partial demand of the house, not full demand etc. But I think using the electric to heat a hot water tank could be cheap, and useful for properties. Home batteries are ridiculous in cost, especially compared to EV batteries (which take much more of a beating, and still last 10 years / 100k miles). Putting 1/3rd of 6000wkh house use, through an EV battery would equate to about 5000 miles, which it would lap up.

I suppose the gamble is on how long things last after the warranty, but a lot of things last at least twice as long as the warranty provided, or they would not provide the warranty in the first place. Yes some parts would degrade after 10 years, but by then there should be a lot of like for like solutions, much cheaper, and better production, or you basically end up going with a second system, alongside your less efficient (albeit still productive) system. Swapping panels for pervious panels should bot have the same cost etc, and there would be a lot more companies and competition to do it.

If I could get a solar system today, and take it with me to the next house, I'd do it in an instant. The concern for me is paying out, and having some other clown get the benefit when I move. If everyone did it though, then everyone gets the benefit, every time, the problem is the initial outlay, that's what needs solving.

 

[Andy_W]

I've got an idea, let the housing developers build as many houses as they want, but in the middle of the estate they need to provide a massive rotating solar panel and batteries, capable to power the houses, would be nice if it also tracks the direction of the sun. Also, insulate the houses to an inch of their life. This should work out far cheaper than putting panels and a battery in every house. Could offer the houses with zero energy bills, albeit with a slightly larger mortgage.

 

[ThatFragranceGuy]

Yes, I totally get that, S&P is around 10%, inflation around 3% etc. But in times of hyperinflation, and energy hyper-hyper inflation it could be nowhere near as good, comparatively. It could take 20 years before normal inflation across the board meets the inflation which energy will have had by the time this plays out. But, this is comparing energy inflation, not just standard inflation.

As for stocks etc, previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance etc etc, as we've all heard many times. But long term trends can only be used going forward if the circumstances are similar, and loads of previous growth was due to the population growing, but the birth rate is now going backwards in the Western World. This could pan out so there will still be growth in emerging markets, but the biggest player in that is china, and it's not even legal to own Chinese stocks (according to china), any stocks owned go via third parties which China turns a blind eye too. Hopefully this continues for those with exposure to China (I've got a bit), but it could one day go to zero, albeit that's unlikely, but a world war could do it. Nobody lumps all their investments in china though, unless they're Chinese, and live in china.

The S&P etc has had massive growth since covid mind, which is unsustainable, and the bubble could still burst on that.

Yes, 40% of our electric comes from gas, so they're linked of course. I don't see the Western World going back to Russian Oil and Gas, not to anywhere near what it was, and everyone will be trying to get away from it. They won't want to be reliant on dodgy states, so I think the UK and others won't want to rely on the middle east for too long either. The USA can look after themselves of course.

Prices were high before the war kicked off though, as demand was high, when demand is higher the more expensive wells get put back into production. There's going to be a lot of countries competing for reliable gas (and oil), from the more expensive wells.

Don't get me wrong mind, I think now is a time to go in on both (stocks and own energy supplies), if you can, but you will know how scary it is for amateurs lumping in the market after they've gone off a cliff, and the cliff could get bigger.

I don't see gas coming down to levels it was before covid, and electric will probably never go below 30p again, because of this. It may get "cheaper" compared to wages etc eventually but I think that will be a long way away, maybe 10-20 years.

I think the forecast on most solar now is 10-13 year payback, but I don't think that covers the price cap increase in April, and certainly doesn't cover the September/ October one which could be even worse. These are the numbers we should be looking at for comparisons I think, as that's what's likely to stick until we get our own energy supplies. Who knows, maybe the north sea wells start looking profitable again, or we nationalise that and do it at cost for security, or we and others go full pelt on fracking. Something needs to be done though, and quickly.

It does cover that price increase. MSE says 10 year pay back based on 40% increase in October and again assumes you can use the power during the day and your system doesn’t die years 12-25 in and you dont move house

home working is up but still low. Sky said one in five people do it and just 14% in London. And because you work from home today, doesn’t mean you will for 25 years or that you’ll want to be doing loads of washing between conference calls

prices were already trending down before the Ukraine invasion, they’re dropping back again now. They’re already trying to get people off gas boilers and into spending 10k on heat pumps, doubt anyones going to have cash laid around for all this

 

[Andy_W]

It does cover that price increase. MSE says 10 year pay back based on 40% increase in October and again assumes you can use the power during the day and your system doesn’t die years 12-25 in and you dont move house

home working is up but still low. Sky said one in five people do it and just 14% in London. And because you work from home today, doesn’t mean you will for 25 years or that you’ll want to be doing loads of washing between conference calls

prices were already trending down before the Ukraine invasion, they’re dropping back again now. They’re already trying to get people off gas boilers and into spending 10k on heat pumps, doubt anyones going to have cash laid around for all this

Wasn't the October price cap set before this kicked off? As in it could still go up, or will go up again in the following April?

Depends what size you get and what you pay too I suppose, but yeah, moving is the main problem I see. Also, apparently a lot of people see having panels as a negative, due to how they look, which is completely crazy. The new house I'm moving too already has it fitted mind, and I work from home, so will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Gas prices were down a little before Ukraine, relative to the price before, but I doubt we're going back down to previous levels (50p a therm) anytime soon, as more turn off Russian gas, and start competing for other gas, which is more expensive to produce. 250p is still 5x more than 50p etc. The price cap pre april was 4p on gas, and is 7p after, so that's like a 70% increase, but the actual per therm price is up 400%. I don't see gas prices at homes going up 400% mind!

Over time gas might start coming down again, as demand lowers, as countries go greener, but by then we possibly won't even be allowed to have gas in our homes, and it just be used to backup the grid. I think they're already talking about banning gas in new houses/ renovations, at least for the boilers etc. Gas is still far greener than oil and coal mind, so it won't be the end of it, not for a long while yet.

 

[Middlesbrough123]

I got qualified at n heat pumps and solar thermal (not pv) the qualifications last 5 years, I’ve done it twice now and have maybe 2 yrs left on this set . Still never fitted a heat pump , people moan about paying 2k for a boiler . The mentality of people in the uk is very different to the likes of Germany . Mobile phones and Netflix take president here