Neil Warnock on Brexit: I cannot wait to get out of the EU!

[indeedido]

What exactly do you mean "evidence" Adi?
I am not sat in the negotiations any more than you are. Neither of us have evidence, we have opinion.
Ireland was the major stumbling block and remains a difficulty, but I believe less so.

My personal belief is that it is only a matter of time before Ireland chooses to unite. Brexit will not be the cause, but may be a catalyst.
I'd find it bizarre that we would be so constrained by a Northern Ireland that will choose to be Ireland within a decade.
Scotland is far less likely to split for all the hottest of air.
NI would be consumed within the EU on unification as East Germany was.
Scotland would not be re-admitted, not least because of the EU's hard and fast border controls that would be required with England.
Unless of course there is a Free Trade arrangement as I point towards there being.
I believe there will ultimately be pragmatism and compromise.
To those outside any negotiation the only reality is the final agreement/solution. None of us can see that as there isn't one.
While the negotiation progresses it might be interesting to speculate, but that is all it is.

There is as much chance of an independent Wales as there is an independent Yorkshire, Cornwall or Teesside.
I would hope there is increased devolved/localised budget and responsibility with clear funding principles for all the UK/GB Regions to allow a levelling up to be real not electioneering.

 

[Adi_Dem]

What exactly do you mean "evidence" Adi?
I am not sat in the negotiations any more than you are. Neither of us have evidence, we have opinion.
Ireland was the major stumbling block and remains a difficulty, but I believe less so.

I mean what I say. Evidence in support of your assertion that goes beyond just hope. The evidence I have for exactly the opposite outcome that you point to is the clear terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, the very clear messages coming from both sides of the negotiation around progress and where the lines are, the refusal to entertain an extension of the transition period meaning that to achieve a trade deal of any substance the incompetent wretches charged with such delivery have less time than it has ever been possible to agree such a trade deal in the past and, of course, the fanciful thinking that continues to exude from all those involved that we can have our cake and eat it. All I am asking is for the evidence that is available to support your view, which I think based on the factors I've described is pure fantasy and hope.

My personal belief is that it is only a matter of time before Ireland chooses to unite. Brexit will not be the cause, but may be a catalyst.

I find that a bizarre thing to say. Polling suggests the opposite in Northern Ireland. To argue Brexit wouldn't be the cause though given the way Northern Ireland was hung out to dry in the Withdrawal Agreement just isn't a sustainable argument.

I'd find it bizarre that we would be so constrained by a Northern Ireland that will choose to be Ireland within a decade.
Scotland is far less likely to split for all the hottest of air.

Again, there is no evidence that there is a unified Ireland on the cards, other than that which is driven entirely by Brexit and the ***show that will inevitably be. Interesting that you believe that 'England' or the UK is being constrained by Northern Ireland. Not something I can even begin to agree with.

NI would be consumed within the EU on unification as East Germany was.

You mean that a unified Ireland would be an EU member state. That's a negative?

Scotland would not be re-admitted, not least because of the EU's hard and fast border controls that would be required with England.
Unless of course there is a Free Trade arrangement as I point towards there being.

A free trade agreement that doesn't have border controls relies on us being within a customs union and for there to be a LPF. The very issues that the UK government is explicitly against. Do you think that is therefore a likely outcome?

I believe there will ultimately be pragmatism and compromise.
To those outside any negotiation the only reality is the final agreement/solution. None of us can see that as there isn't one.
While the negotiation progresses it might be interesting to speculate, but that is all it is.

It isn't just speculation though when we literally have the legal document that sets out the parameters of the negotiation and pretty much rules out the very type of free trade agreement that you say is the likely outcome.

 

[Lefty]

A deal could (and I think will) be reached that will be a strong Trade Deal without quotas and tariffs and with minimised policing.
IF that happens then I think it is fair to say that my interpretation of Hard Brexit has been avoided.

Why do you think a) a deal will most likely be reached and b) it will be a strong Trade Deal without quotas and tariffs and with minimised policing?

 

[Ziggy]

Indeedio:
"What exactly do you mean "evidence" Adi?
I am not sat in the negotiations any more than you are. Neither of us have evidence, we have opinion."

The UK government decided that there would be no report or any oversight of Parliament to these negotiations. They tried this same BS scam with WA discussions " Because we can't show our hand" while failing to point out that, by law, the EU team must publish their negotiating position and report back and publish the progress of the current situation. Barnier is not a free agent. He represents, in combined input from the other members, the collective position.
So it's not jazz politics, he can't make it up as he goes along. Unlike the waffle gang.
But most of all the EU doesn't bluff.
What was the input/output of the last round of talks? To get more info the EU website will have more detail.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_site/20200717_r6_draft_agenda_fin.pdf

Barnier press statement

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_20_1400

 

[boromike85]

the very clear messages coming from both sides of the negotiation around progress and where the lines are, the refusal to entertain an extension of the transition period meaning that to achieve a trade deal of any substance the incompetent wretches charged with such delivery have less time than it has ever been possible to agree such a trade deal in the past and, of course, the fanciful thinking that continues to exude from all those involved that we can have our cake and eat it.

Without a deadline then no progress is made. We had 2 years and got nowhere, they managed to get some changes in a week when they were time-pressured so I can see why they are currently saying no extension but they might still ask for an extension. Personally I'd take the covid issue as a good enough reason to extend the deadline to cover the time lost so an extra 6 months without losing face.

Evidence of existing trade deals and rules isn't evidence that what we want can't be achieved. People like belittling us but the fact is that outside the EU, other than the US, we have by far the biggest trade balance. We are a special case because we have so much to offer. Special cases can be negotiated if there is enough will to do so. Japan got a trade deal and break even with the EU, Canada got one and they their balance is about £17bn. Ours is £130bn.

 

[Lefty]

Indeedio:
"What exactly do you mean "evidence" Adi?
I am not sat in the negotiations any more than you are. Neither of us have evidence, we have opinion."

The UK government decided that there would be no report or any oversight of Parliament to these negotiations. They tried this same BS scam with WA discussions " Because we can't show our hand" while failing to point out that, by law, the EU team must publish their negotiating position and report back and publish the progress of the current situation. Barnier is not a free agent. He represents, in combined input from the other members, the collective position.
So it's not jazz politics, he can't make it up as he goes along. Unlike the waffle gang.
But most of all the EU doesn't bluff.
What was the input/output of the last round of talks? To get more info the EU website will have more detail.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_site/20200717_r6_draft_agenda_fin.pdf

Barnier press statement

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_20_1400

Brexiters simply don't understand anything about the EU. That was true in 2016, which was bad enough, but it is still true now, which is even worse.

 

[Adi_Dem]

Without a deadline then no progress is made. We had 2 years and got nowhere, they managed to get some changes in a week when they were time-pressured so I can see why they are currently saying no extension but they might still ask for an extension. Personally I'd take the covid issue as a good enough reason to extend the deadline to cover the time lost so an extra 6 months without losing face.

Describe the positive changes in our favour that you think were achieved in a week when they were time pressured.

Evidence of existing trade deals and rules isn't evidence that what we want can't be achieved. People like belittling us but the fact is that outside the EU, other than the US, we have by far the biggest trade balance. We are a special case because we have so much to offer. Special cases can be negotiated if there is enough will to do so. Japan got a trade deal and break even with the EU, Canada got one and they their balance is about £17bn. Ours is £130bn.

English exceptionalism again. Nothing more and nothing less. They need us more than we need them. We are a special case. It just isn't being borne out by any events on the ground. On top of that the red lines are there for all to see and it is unravelling publicly. You can see the absence of progress. In fact you can see the absence of any attempt or desire for progress. And then you have the competence of those on our side trying to make the progress. Yet you think we can do a comprehensive trade deal in a few months? Blimey.

 

[Ziggy]

Mike,
The changes we got was a rehash of what May said "No British prime minster could ever agree to"
Goods will be checked between the UK and NI. Creating a de facto border in the Irish Sea. It's like a pantomime, Government shouts. "Oh no it isn't " and the rest " Oh yes it is"

 

[Adi_Dem]

Mike,
The changes we got was a rehash of what May said "No British prime minster could ever agree to"
Goods will be checked between the UK and NI. Creating a de facto border in the Irish Sea. It's like a pantomime, Government shouts. "Oh no it isn't " and the rest " Oh yes it is"

This. Exactly this.

 

[boromike85]

Describe the positive changes in our favour that you think were achieved in a week when they were time pressured.

I didn't say they were positive. I said there were changes. Both versions of the WA suited the EU more than us.

English exceptionalism again.

It's not exceptionalism. It's facts. We have far more to offer than any other countries that have done trade deals with the EU. Every trade deal includes something that hasn't been included before and needs signing off by all members. There is nothing stopping that happening again.

Yet you think we can do a comprehensive trade deal in a few months?

It isn't a few months. We've been talking for years. Both sides know each other and the relationship well enough to know what is and isn't wanted (or possible). Also, we already have a comprehensive trade deal. We're not starting from scratch, just adding/removing a few things from the existing one.

But no, I don't have any confidence in this government doing what is best for us but that isn't the same as thinking that we shouldn't be a member of the EU or discussing what is possible.

 

[Lefty]

Describe the positive changes in our favour that you think were achieved in a week when they were time pressured.



English exceptionalism again. Nothing more and nothing less. They need us more than we need them. We are a special case. It just isn't being borne out by any events on the ground. On top of that the red lines are there for all to see and it is unravelling publicly. You can see the absence of progress. In fact you can see the absence of any attempt or desire for progress. And then you have the competence of those on our side trying to make the progress. Yet you think we can do a comprehensive trade deal in a few months? Blimey.

A reminder of the difficulty of Trade Deals.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1182232085114826752

 

[Lefty]

This prediction/analysis seems reasonable to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...k-free-trade-agreement?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[NYboro]

Before I reply to all of that - how do I split the quotes out in the way you just have???

you need the beginning and end [ QUOTE text QUOTE ] around them

Before I reply to all of that - how do I split the quotes out in the way you just have???

 

[NYboro]

Brexiters simply don't understand anything about the EU. That was true in 2016, which was bad enough, but it is still true now, which is even worse.

It strikes me as being wilful ignorance. Despite the lies being pointed out, they still believe them.

 

[Adi_Dem]

I didn't say they were positive. I said there were changes. Both versions of the WA suited the EU more than us.

Then I genuinely don't see the point you were trying to make. I thought you were saying that because time pressure yielded a positive result in the WA the same could happen again. But if you're just saying there were changes then that point isn't really made.

And it is exceptionalism and your summary isn't grounded in the reality of trade agreements. We may have been banging away for 2 years but the facts remain: the same issues exist between ERG red lines, the government's proclamations, the WA and the negotiations that have always existed. It is naive in the extreme to believe that we are going to get the kind of trade deal that you and Indeedido seem to believe is possible, especially given the WA takes us in a very different direction to the one described. All of the experts in this kind of negotiation, the people that are experts are telling us just how incredibly unlikely that is. Especially in the context of a worldwide pandemic crisis.

 

[indeedido]

Why do you think a) a deal will most likely be reached and b) it will be a strong Trade Deal without quotas and tariffs and with minimised policing?

Simply because that is in everybody's best interest.
CETA is some of this already. Canada are further away, trade much less and there is less inter-dependence, but the principles can be built on.
The pragmatic mutually beneficial need for solution will expedite proceedings.

Adi - Cause of unification would be because the majority of people would identify as Irish Nationalist first and most. It has been happening for years. It is not going to stop. Brexit may well be a catalyst that accelerates.
It is already pretty close according to the detail.tv 2020 polls 46.8% remain, 45.4% United 7.8% don't know.
I think Irish unification would be great and within the EU if that is what their people want to do. The Irish Republic are over 70% pro unification.
It would also free up GB to do what it wants without the geographic constraint that a separate physical entity represents. It is one less obstacle.

If Scotland wanted to leave the UK and rejoin the EU then there would be issues for the EU with Spain etc. But even presuming these could be surpassed, then the EU would have to impose border controls between rest of GB and Scotland. I believe this would dissuade the Scots from following through (amongst lots of other reasons).
The SNP for all their blather got a lower share of the Scottish vote 45%, than the Tories did of the England and Wales vote. ( I am no blind follower of Johnson by the way) and the SNP primary raison d'etre is a Ronseal really.

I have never said in any post that there will not need to be compromise and some aspects may be painful in the short to mid term. You guys clearly think that is unjustifiable because you simply don't value things the same way as I do.
You don't recognise concerns about the creep of the Common Market through EU to Federal Super State, dismissing the clear evidence; happy to trust that the motives and actions of a European beaurocracy are so obviously in our best interests. You see me as catastrophising what the EU are all about. You demand evidence and discount thought and that is your right.
Yet you ridicule and belittle me and others for choosing to trust that not being part of that dictatorial body is practically possible and has real value. I see you as catastrophising about leaving the Club/regime. You never point to evidence of what we have materially gained or what we would materially lose either, it is always your thought and what you value.
Both parties are choosing to trust the pursuit of what they most value.

I can respect your opinion and disagree; you just call people like me thick because we have the temerity to disagree.

 

[Adi_Dem]

Simply because that is in everybody's best interest.
CETA is some of this already. Canada are further away, trade much less and there is less inter-dependence, but the principles can be built on.
The pragmatic mutually beneficial need for solution will expedite proceedings.

Adi - Cause of unification would be because the majority of people would identify as Irish Nationalist first and most. It has been happening for years. It is not going to stop. Brexit may well be a catalyst that accelerates.
It is already pretty close according to the detail.tv 2020 polls 46.8% remain, 45.4% United 7.8% don't know.
I think Irish unification would be great and within the EU if that is what their people want to do. The Irish Republic are over 70% pro unification.
It would also free up GB to do what it wants without the geographic constraint that a separate physical entity represents. It is one less obstacle.

If Scotland wanted to leave the UK and rejoin the EU then there would be issues for the EU with Spain etc. But even presuming these could be surpassed, then the EU would have to impose border controls between rest of GB and Scotland. I believe this would dissuade the Scots from following through (amongst lots of other reasons).
The SNP for all their blather got a lower share of the Scottish vote 45%, than the Tories did of the England and Wales vote. ( I am no blind follower of Johnson by the way) and the SNP primary raison d'etre is a Ronseal really.

I have never said in any post that there will not need to be compromise and some aspects may be painful in the short to mid term. You guys clearly think that is unjustifiable because you simply don't value things the same way as I do.
You don't recognise concerns about the creep of the Common Market through EU to Federal Super State, dismissing the clear evidence; happy to trust that the motives and actions of a European beaurocracy are so obviously in our best interests. You see me as catastrophising what the EU are all about. You demand evidence and discount thought and that is your right.
Yet you ridicule and belittle me and others for choosing to trust that not being part of that dictatorial body is practically possible and has real value. I see you as catastrophising about leaving the Club/regime. You never point to evidence of what we have materially gained or what we would materially lose either, it is always your thought and what you value.
Both parties are choosing to trust the pursuit of what they most value.

I can respect your opinion and disagree; you just call people like me thick because we have the temerity to disagree.

I haven't called you thick once Indeedido because you're clearly not. If it has come across in that way then I apologise. However, this bit

You never point to evidence of what we have materially gained or what we would materially lose either

is simply not true. For more than 4 years now we have provided nothing but evidence of what we stand to lose. There is no evidence whatsoever of any material economic gain and then it boils down to this idea that there has been a creep of political union which again I just don't see borne out with any real evidence. It's all either subjective opinion or an outright misunderstadning of how the EU works and what rights the UK has always enjoyed within it.

 

[Lefty]

Simply because that is in everybody's best interest.

Is that your answer to just a)?

 

[NYboro]

Is that your answer to just a)?

Does anyone believe that this government has everyone's best interest at heart?

 

[Adi_Dem]

Does anyone believe that this government has everyone's best interest at heart?

Or indeed that even if everyone was working with that mindset it inevitably means the desired outcome will be reached?