Lens in for Chuba?

Buying 2 lotto tickets doubles your chances of winning, but it doesn't make it guaranteed or even likely.

I don't really understand your point tbh. Every club in the Championship wants to get to the Premier League, the financial benefits of achieving that are huge. We have a Championship player of the season on our books who has scored more league goals in a season than any other Boro player in a long long time. If Gibson is serious about wanting promotion then holding onto Chuba would be a big statement from the club.
 
If it’s true they’re interested, and I was Chuba, I’d go to Ajax in a heartbeat.
 
Promotion would be worth what though? 15-20 times that amount? Maybe more. That's the other half of what we could potentially be losing out on.
If we don't sell him now, and he fires us to promotion it will have been a far more financially astute decision.

The club aren’t daft, even if Chuba stays, we’re a long way off a side capable of promotion.
 
The Dutch League is quite a low standard and there is not the money to pay £12m plus for players and pay them £30k/week

If promotion is worth £120m and Chuba makes at least 10% difference - thats £12m alone - never mind his market value based on £21m for Gyorkeres. Who only had 1 year on his contract left.

One of the most common phreases in the transfer market is natural goalscorers are worth their weight in gold - £15m for a 29 goal a season is not expensive.
 
The club aren’t daft, even if Chuba stays, we’re a long way off a side capable of promotion.

We're a left back and a striker off being as good if not better than last year. Hopefully that'll happen in the next couple of weeks. One poor game against Millwall doesn't mean we're doomed to a disappointing season.
 
The Dutch League is quite a low standard and there is not the money to pay £12m plus for players and pay them £30k/week

If promotion is worth £120m and Chuba makes at least 10% difference - thats £12m alone - never mind his market value based on £21m for Gyorkeres. Who only had 1 year on his contract left.

One of the most common phreases in the transfer market is natural goalscorers are worth their weight in gold - £15m for a 29 goal a season is not expensive.
Ajax are absolutely loaded. They're more than capable of paying that. They just spent about £12m on some infant from Man City who's never kicked a ball in first team football.

He's also not a 29 goal a season striker either is he. He's done that one time in his career, and never hit double figures in the league once before last season.
 
We had to bring money in to balance out FFP. We had been hamstrung for 6 years with the Garry Monk splurge and players like Britt and Fletcher sticking on our FFP calculation.

The Monk years will finally be off our FFP window this year, money will be invested.
This is not true. The Club were already within the FFP limit (of being able to lose £15m over the 3 years to 2022 without any Equity injection).
The sale of Tav and Spence will make them significantly safer for the 3 years to 2023.
The club are miles away from anything like FFP difficulties.
They will still of course be losing money in the real world in seasons they don't sell, but there are big FFP allowances and clubs are allowed to lose up to £15m across 3 years post allowances, or £39m if there is any equity injection.

This move towards selling stars and buying potential appears to mean Gibson is reluctant to invest for promotion (to step change revenue), and wants to minimise how much he loans to shore up losses.
His Group is owed over £140m, so you can certainly see why he doesn't want further losses and the need for further loans.
He is gambling on Scott's dealings to create a squad that Carrick can take up without more funding.
Its easy for me to say he's crackers (though I think he is) but I haven't loaned the club £140m or indeed converted a further £64m of debt into equity, as he has.
I see no reason in his past or Boro record why we should be confident that Scott has a scooby what he is doing. Who has he bought that you would be confident could be sold for a profit, let alone a vast one?
The profit so far has come from the academy, and who was already here without book value (Spence, Tavernier, Akpom).
McGree, Barlaser, Clarke, Hoppe, Forss have not grown in value I don't think. Payero has gone backwards.
People point to Brighton and Brentford, which is fair enough, but Brighton especially have applied the strategy at higher quality thresh-holds. We really appear to be trying to create value from absolutely minimum initial outlays. Furthermore, everyone is now trying to play the same game, all over Europe.

I don't want us to blow a fortune on the sort of rubbish Monk and pulis signed, but it all comes down to judgement and good negotiation.
Wasting £15m on Assombolonga does not mean we would have wasted £15m on Gyokeres last summer using the proceeds from Spence and Tav.
Investing in quality offers the prospect of even greater profit from sale, plus the increased chance of step changing Club revenue through promotion to the PL.
It's not my money, I get that; but my concerns with Gibson have always been about his judgement. I think we have reduced our chance of promotion as things stand. I think selling Akpom on the cheap and giving more money to Scott to trawl with, reduce our chances further.
I hope I'm wrong and will be happy to shout it full voice on here if I am.
 
We can’t turn down big money for Chuba. Our squad is weaker than last season so it would be daft to potentially lose that fee letting him run his contract down on the slimmer chance that we get promotion.

We had our chance last season, I think this will be a season of reconciliation.
 
I don't really understand your point tbh. Every club in the Championship wants to get to the Premier League, the financial benefits of achieving that are huge. We have a Championship player of the season on our books who has scored more league goals in a season than any other Boro player in a long long time. If Gibson is serious about wanting promotion then holding onto Chuba would be a big statement from the club.

Statements, posturing etc are not important. Practicalities are.

My point was that, while I think most of us would agree that our chances of promotion are better with Chuba, the question is how much better are our chances with him, and do they make keeping him a smart bet?

I do not think keeping Chuba is the difference between where we are now and being odds on for promotion.

If he stays, and if he recaptures last season's form, maybe our chances of promotion go from 10% to 20%. Numbers are speculative of course, we can argue those all day, but most likely we will still not be promoted.
 
To that I'd add that, ok, mathematically you can argue a 20% chance of 100m is worth £20 million, therefore it's right to turn down £12 million for Chuba.

My counter argument would be that in all likelihood we get £0. Derby are where they are now as they gamble their future on "it'll all be all right if we go up".

The world is full of destitute gamblers who would have been fine if their bets paid off.
 
To that I'd add that, ok, mathematically you can argue a 20% chance of 100m is worth £20 million, therefore it's right to turn down £12 million for Chuba.

My counter argument would be that in all likelihood we get £0. Derby are where they are now as they gamble their future on "it'll all be all right if we go up".

The world is full of destitute gamblers who would have been fine if their bets paid off.
Our fans have short memories, we are where we are because we thought a 15m striker would guarantee 30 goals a season and promotion. It didn’t work, it guaranteed a financial weight around the club and ultimately failure. There’s no sure thing in football
 
He went from 22 league goals down to 14. That's a pretty big dip
He changed position and changed manager. His change in goals and assists was likely more due to those factors than his contract ending. Despite all that, he still scored the two goals in the last match of the season that beat Millwall (they were 3-2 down until he scored twice) and almost got Blackburn into the playoffs.

Under Mowbray he usually played as centre forward
1691658650322.png

Under Thomasson he rarely played as centre forward

1691658607798.png
 
He changed position and changed manager. His change in goals and assists was likely more due to those factors than his contract ending. Despite all that, he still scored the two goals in the last match of the season that beat Millwall (they were 3-2 down until he scored twice) and almost got Blackburn into the playoffs.

Under Mowbray he usually played as centre forward
View attachment 61899

Under Thomasson he rarely played as centre forward

View attachment 61898
looking at those stats he was both less effective as a striker and a winger last season. As a Cf he went from better than 1 in 2, then worse than 1 in 2. As a wide player he went from 3 goals every 4 games, to 1 goal every 3 games
 
The Dutch League is quite a low standard and there is not the money to pay £12m plus for players and pay them £30k/week

If promotion is worth £120m and Chuba makes at least 10% difference - thats £12m alone - never mind his market value based on £21m for Gyorkeres. Who only had 1 year on his contract left.

One of the most common phreases in the transfer market is natural goalscorers are worth their weight in gold - £15m for a 29 goal a season is not expensive.
They are about £70m in profit on transfers this window and they were up over £150m last season after selling Antony and Martinez to Utd for £90m and £55m. The Dutch League as a whole and Ajax individually are very different. Last season they signed 3 players of £15m+ (one of them £30m). This season they have signed 1 so far. They can comfortably afford Akpom if they wanted him.
 
he sale of Tav and Spence will make them significantly safer for the 3 years to 2023.
The club are miles away from anything like FFP difficulties.
This is absolutely the case.

Looking from the outside, I reckon Gibson is, effectively, "saving up" for a promotion push.
Last season, with sales of Tav and Spence we probably made a small profit.
This season, if we sell Akpom and don't take on loanees with high wages, we will likely make a smallish loss that (possibly) roughly balances out the loss from last year.
If that's right then, next season, he is in position for "smash the league" style spending while still being comfortably in FFP limits. If it doesn't work, he'll be able to adjust the season after.

None of us know what's in Gibson's plans. I don't think he's settling for Championship mediocrity but I do think he's trying to find the best way to make his money actually have an impact rather than just draining into a black hole.
 
We can’t turn down big money for Chuba. Our squad is weaker than last season so it would be daft to potentially lose that fee letting him run his contract down on the slimmer chance that we get promotion.

We had our chance last season, I think this will be a season of reconciliation.
Reconciliation or consolidation?
 
This is absolutely the case.

Looking from the outside, I reckon Gibson is, effectively, "saving up" for a promotion push.
Last season, with sales of Tav and Spence we probably made a small profit.
This season, if we sell Akpom and don't take on loanees with high wages, we will likely make a smallish loss that (possibly) roughly balances out the loss from last year.
If that's right then, next season, he is in position for "smash the league" style spending while still being comfortably in FFP limits. If it doesn't work, he'll be able to adjust the season after.

None of us know what's in Gibson's plans. I don't think he's settling for Championship mediocrity but I do think he's trying to find the best way to make his money actually have an impact rather than just draining into a black hole.
It's impossible to plan that far ahead in football though which shows a bit of naivety. He's got a good manager now, one that I think he can trust but he's also got a reputation which means that continued success this season, even if we don't get promoted, will see him receiving PL offers. If he goes then it means bringing in a new manager to spend all that money and we've been there before with Gary Monk. This time next season we might lose Akpom for free, we might receive a bid we can't turn down for Hackney, Howson will finally retire etc. We might need a lot of money to just stand still. If we're in a position now where we have a solid foundation in the squad, a manager that we know can perform and the FFP space to make a go of it now then we shouldn't wait.

I don't think that is the case though. I think Gibson's days of blank cheque spending are behind us and we'll be operating on much smaller budgets for the foreseeable (and most likely not getting promoted).
 
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