Jones’ chance

[Andy_W]

It was a decent attempt by Jones but that save was a lot easier than it looks. I'll explain why.

During my school and uni goalkeeping days I made a very similar save; I always remember one of the people watching behind the goal swearing when I pulled it off. But here's the thing; it was a far easier save than, say, trying to outwit a striker in a 1v1 coming in on goal. There are two things in the keeper's favour here.

1) The keeper is already moving in the right direction due to following the direction of play. A dive when you are already on the move is a lot easier.
2) Height and power. Jones places the ball in roughly the right place (as he sees it) at around about hip height. Thing about keeping is that there is a height zone between, roughly, your waist and chest where it is easiest to save the ball. The reason is gravity. You literally cannot throw yourself to the floor any quicker than gravity. If a ball is below knee height and a distance from you, you have to bend your knees, rotate your centre line, fall down, push sideways and reach out. By the time you have finished doing that everyone's gone home for tea.

As a non-striker, Jones put the ball exactly where it looks like it ought to go. He didn't risk scuffing it along the floor, gave himself a margin for error by not aiming too close to the post and focused on placement over power because it looked like the keeper would never make it in a month of Sundays. Because he's not a striker or a keeper he didn't realise that he was making the wrong decisions.

Forrs and Akpom (and probably Archer) would all have scored that goal. Akpom would have placed it back across the keeper. Forss would have used power and kept it low. They both have that instinctive knowledge of where a keeper is going and what he can reach.

It's a decent attempt by Jones and it is a good save but it's not a worldie. It does though show the difference between a winger who scores some goals and a striker who specialises in scoring goals.

Great summary.

Sort of explains why shots on target don't mean a great deal either, you're probably much more likely to score, trying to hit an area which won't suit the keeper, than a few shots in the middle of the goal, or within easy reach.

Most players are just trying to get a shot on target, nowhere specific, especially with shots more than 10 yards away, the difference with good strikers is they're trying to score in a specific area with a higher percentage of chances, and if they hit their area the keeper has next to zero chance anyway.

Some bad strikers, those who also just aim for anything on target can often have years where they get lucky and score loads, but it hardly ever lasts, unless they're fortunate enough to play for a top team every week of their career. It's always those who are more composed and clinical with their chances who do better long term, if they get the same number of chances.

 

[Laughing]

Great summary.

Sort of explains why shots on target don't mean a great deal either, you're probably much more likely to score, trying to hit an area which won't suit the keeper, than a few shots in the middle of the goal, or within easy reach.

Most players are just trying to get a shot on target, nowhere specific, especially with shots more than 10 yards away, the difference with good strikers is they're trying to score in a specific area with a higher percentage of chances, and if they hit their area the keeper has next to zero chance anyway.

Some bad strikers, those who also just aim for anything on target can often have years where they get lucky and score loads, but it hardly ever lasts, unless they're fortunate enough to play for a top team every week of their career. It's always those who are more composed and clinical with their chances who do better long term, if they get the same number of chances.

New scientist did an article on shots to goals ratio from a mathematical pespective. I loved it, being a nerd, but my god, did it bring football down to the nuts and bolts. Not everyones cup of tea. You may be able to find it online

 

[wilkos_perm]

It was a decent attempt by Jones but that save was a lot easier than it looks. I'll explain why.

During my school and uni goalkeeping days I made a very similar save; I always remember one of the people watching behind the goal swearing when I pulled it off. But here's the thing; it was a far easier save than, say, trying to outwit a striker in a 1v1 coming in on goal. There are two things in the keeper's favour here.

1) The keeper is already moving in the right direction due to following the direction of play. A dive when you are already on the move is a lot easier.
2) Height and power. Jones places the ball in roughly the right place (as he sees it) at around about hip height. Thing about keeping is that there is a height zone between, roughly, your waist and chest where it is easiest to save the ball. The reason is gravity. You literally cannot throw yourself to the floor any quicker than gravity. If a ball is below knee height and a distance from you, you have to bend your knees, rotate your centre line, fall down, push sideways and reach out. By the time you have finished doing that everyone's gone home for tea.

As a non-striker, Jones put the ball exactly where it looks like it ought to go. He didn't risk scuffing it along the floor, gave himself a margin for error by not aiming too close to the post and focused on placement over power because it looked like the keeper would never make it in a month of Sundays. Because he's not a striker or a keeper he didn't realise that he was making the wrong decisions.

Forrs and Akpom (and probably Archer) would all have scored that goal. Akpom would have placed it back across the keeper. Forss would have used power and kept it low. They both have that instinctive knowledge of where a keeper is going and what he can reach.

It's a decent attempt by Jones and it is a good save but it's not a worldie. It does though show the difference between a winger who scores some goals and a striker who specialises in scoring goals.

I don't agree with the assessment to be honest. He had no option to hit it in any other fashion because he was effectively at full stretch to get it back across without just putting it wide. If it had been Matt Crooks or Akpom the may well have scored, but only because they are bigger.

 

[indeedido]

I thought Jones did well. It was well set up by Crooks and the keeper has made a very good save even allowing for Bruce's assessment.
It was the closest we came, sad that it took until into injury time.

 

[HolgateCorner]

I though Jones attempt was in added on time, it was too late anyway for a comeback wasn’t it? Or have I got that wrong?

Great save in my opinion.

It was a decent attempt by Jones but that save was a lot easier than it looks. I'll explain why.

During my school and uni goalkeeping days I made a very similar save; I always remember one of the people watching behind the goal swearing when I pulled it off. But here's the thing; it was a far easier save than, say, trying to outwit a striker in a 1v1 coming in on goal. There are two things in the keeper's favour here.

1) The keeper is already moving in the right direction due to following the direction of play. A dive when you are already on the move is a lot easier.
2) Height and power. Jones places the ball in roughly the right place (as he sees it) at around about hip height. Thing about keeping is that there is a height zone between, roughly, your waist and chest where it is easiest to save the ball. The reason is gravity. You literally cannot throw yourself to the floor any quicker than gravity. If a ball is below knee height and a distance from you, you have to bend your knees, rotate your centre line, fall down, push sideways and reach out. By the time you have finished doing that everyone's gone home for tea.

As a non-striker, Jones put the ball exactly where it looks like it ought to go. He didn't risk scuffing it along the floor, gave himself a margin for error by not aiming too close to the post and focused on placement over power because it looked like the keeper would never make it in a month of Sundays. Because he's not a striker or a keeper he didn't realise that he was making the wrong decisions.

Forrs and Akpom (and probably Archer) would all have scored that goal. Akpom would have placed it back across the keeper. Forss would have used power and kept it low. They both have that instinctive knowledge of where a keeper is going and what he can reach.

It's a decent attempt by Jones and it is a good save but it's not a worldie. It does though show the difference between a winger who scores some goals and a striker who specialises in scoring goals.

Very good in depth analysis but it was split second stuff and Jones got his shot on target and the keeper got himself quickly into position to save it, thought it was an excellent stop at close range myself and I don’t think Jones did much wrong, there were defenders getting back to cover the shot back across the goal. As you say maybe could have shot lower but I don’t think it’s fair to second guess what Forss or Akpom would have done.

 

[Bruce]

I thought Jones did well. It was well set up by Crooks and the keeper has made a very good save even allowing for Bruce's assessment.
It was the closest we came, sad that it took until into injury time.

Don't get me wrong, it is a good save. The keeper has to do everything right but it's the kind of save you would expect Joe Lumley to make. It's also a "free hit" for the keeper. If he doesn't make the save, no one blames him.

Likewise, Jones makes as good an attempt as you would expect and no one blames him for the keeper pulling off a "worldy." As you say, it's a much harder chance than it looks; the angle is quite narrow and the keeper is moving at speed. That said, I expect Jones thought he had scored and was surprised to see the keeper save it.

Personally, I think the most impressive skill in that sequence is Crooks' pass. The ball drops vertically towards him, he holds off 3 WBA defenders with two more moving in to block him but still manages to turn and place a near perfect pass to Jones.

 

[indeedido]

Don't get me wrong, it is a good save. The keeper has to do everything right but it's the kind of save you would expect Joe Lumley to make. It's also a "free hit" for the keeper. If he doesn't make the save, no one blames him.

Likewise, Jones makes as good an attempt as you would expect and no one blames him for the keeper pulling off a "worldy." As you say, it's a much harder chance than it looks; the angle is quite narrow and the keeper is moving at speed. That said, I expect Jones thought he had scored and was surprised to see the keeper save it.

Personally, I think the most impressive skill in that sequence is Crooks' pass. The ball drops vertically towards him, he holds off 3 WBA defenders with two more moving in to block him but still manages to turn and place a near perfect pass to Jones.

Totally agree re Crooks - a very under-rated player IMHO.

 

[morrissey]

Ripley gave Paul Parker a right going over in the semi at Old Trafford...Parker went on to have a good World Cup Italia '90

 

[UTB70]

Reading - incey will want to prove a point. His teams park the bus away from home
Swansea - very rarely win here
Stoke - neil usually sets out his teans well here...see norwich and preston
Preston - beat us in last 2 and have decent record at the riverside.

Not as easy as it looks . Wasnt it 2 easy wins at home last season with just preston and hull to brush away and we didnt win either. Must not get complacent

 

[Andy_W]

New scientist did an article on shots to goals ratio from a mathematical pespective. I loved it, being a nerd, but my god, did it bring football down to the nuts and bolts. Not everyones cup of tea. You may be able to find it online

Haha, I'm a nerd too (or just a fan of detail), so I'd probably like that

I just had a quick look and couldn't find it, but did find an article that footballers favoured foot has a no better pass percentage than their weaker foot. I would bet that comes down to average pass distance mind, not many are playing balls longer than 20 yards with their bad foot often, and when they do they won't be risky passes around other players.

 

[Andy_W]

Don't get me wrong, it is a good save. The keeper has to do everything right but it's the kind of save you would expect Joe Lumley to make. It's also a "free hit" for the keeper. If he doesn't make the save, no one blames him.

Another good point on the free hit, and why keepers for poor teams often get an ego boost, or have their ability artificially inflated. They get lots of chances for free hits.

If your goal is getting peppered, you're going to make some saves, and get a good name, you might even save a couple of 30%'ers each game, and nobody would be complaining about the 4 other 30% ers you concede. In reality you're doing what's expected, but it just "seems" better.

Nobody really ever calls keepers for terrible teams awful, yet it happens with teams quite high up often.

Used to always think De Gea got a lot of bad press, yes he made a couple of mistakes but loads of times he had zero chance, and he was always good for saving something which no other keeper probably would.

I don't see Ederson looking awesome in goal, not with saves, as he doesn't have to make many, and the chances the oppo do get are often not simple, it was the same with Allison too. But put Allisson in a weaker defence and he looks a lot worse. In reality, he's still the same, but the chances they're giving away are far easier to score, and coupled with the odd error it can make some doubt him.

I don't think there's much difference at all in goalkeepers performance/ ability at our level when you factor in saves/ handling and crosses, put them all against the same chances and same circumstance and the goals conceded end up very similar I bet. There is a massive difference in kicking and playing the ball out though, and choosing who to pass to and when.

Not many are complaining when a keeper hoofs the ball up, supposedly to their forward, v two defenders, and extremely rarely would they score from that scenario. I absolutely hate it when they do that, same with defenders too, and it's worse aginst good possession sides.