Johnson's scandals- how on earth did he get where he is

Laughing said:
Ill have to look at opinium. Doesn't matter who owns youguv election after election they have proven to be accurate. Its accurate because the methodology was developed and overseen by doug rivers a professor at Stanford and not a tory.
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General elections are the only real yard stick pollsters are checked by, at any other time they are all able to produce polls that have no measure.

All pollsters are worth looking at not just the two you mentioned, Youguv produced a poll that they corrected quietly within a few days just after the pubs opened, purely designed for headlines. Accurate or not, they are no more trustworthy than any other.
 
Edward Windsor-Saxe-Coburg got into Cambridge with a C and two Ds 'A' levels. Seems fair enough. After all he does have the word 'Prince' in his name.
 
Chris_Boro said:
General elections are the only real yard stick pollsters are checked by, at any other time they are all able to produce polls that have no measure.

All pollsters are worth looking at not just the two you mentioned, Youguv produced a poll that they corrected quietly within a few days just after the pubs opened, purely designed for headlines. Accurate or not, they are no more trustworthy than any other.
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Is true that mid term polls have no real metrics by which to check their accuracy. So I go by who is generally more accurate at election time.

I have no idea if some youguv polls are dodgy but I would be surprised given their provenance if they are badly constructed.
 
Laughing said:
My main point is that the difference between getting into Oxford and not is a level results. Any idiot who can learn by rote can get good grades at a level. I dont have a single a level but have a1st class degree and an iq of over 140. I was rubbish at school 6 o levels because education wasn't considered important in my family.

The difference in intelligence between a graduate from Oxford and Nottingham is nil.

That really is a fact.
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This is what so many people really struggle with in this in country. I have decent GCSE grades, 3 a-levels and a 2:2 at university, plus some post-grad/chartership qualifications, and an IQ in the high 130s apparently. I’d be equally as bad (or good, depending on your view of him) at running the country as Boris Johnson and that’s exactly why I feel I’m in a position to criticise. Had I happened to have gone to Eton I’d have genuinely probably (wrongly) had a decent stab at being PM, exponentially higher than the current reality. But why should that be such a crucial factor? The country is absolutely obsessed with “status”.
 
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Laughing said:
Not really the only polls worth looking at are youguv and ipso mori. They are easy more accurate than the others. I tend to ignore polls good or bad from any but the two mentioned.
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You Gov poll in the Mail today indicating a 1% Labour lead (Labour 38, Tories 37).
 
Laughing said:
You would reasonably expect to see Johnson fall off a bit in polls. I would expect another tory jump when may 17th comes round
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I’m a bit suspicious how You Gov have swung from a 14% Tory lead to 1% Labour lead in two weeks, that is massive even allowing for wallpapergate, maybe indicates they are struggling to interpret public opinion just now.
 
HolgateCorner said:
I’m a bit suspicious how You Gov have swung from a 14% Tory lead to 1% Labour lead in two weeks, that is massive even allowing for wallpapergate, maybe indicates they are struggling to interpret public opinion just now.
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Perhaps the polls were asking slightly different questions which makes a massive difference to user responses
 
This poll shows the Labour 5 pts behind the Tories, as opposed to 11 pts last week. It also shows Johnsons approval ratings falling to -6 and Kier Hardy's going up to +8. I think the poll is a national one rather than just the red wall seats as there are elections going on all around the country.
www.theguardian.com

Tory poll lead slashed as key elections loom across Britain

Stories of Conservative sleaze appear to be having an impact as Keir Starmer faces his first electoral test as Labour leader on 6 May
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
all polls have varying credibility, but what they all seem to be showing is a tightening of the polls. Good, but the recent scandals should have been terminal for Johnson
 
BoroMart said:
all polls have varying credibility, but what they all seem to be showing is a tightening of the polls. Good, but the recent scandals should have been terminal for Johnson
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Millions of core Tory votes bought by shutting the country down to protect the over 60’s, loans for small businesses and the furlough scheme to keep the minimum wage onside. Money no object!

Labour doing well in the face of all that.

Johnson is finished in my opinion, the attack on him has come from within his own party.
 
atypical_boro said:
This is what so many people really struggle with in this in country. I have decent GCSE grades, 3 a-levels and a 2:2 at university, plus some post-grad/chartership qualifications, and an IQ in the high 130s apparently. I’d be equally as bad (or good, depending on your view of him) at running the country as Boris Johnson and that’s exactly why I feel I’m in a position to criticise. Had I happened to have gone to Eton I’d have genuinely probably (wrongly) had a decent stab at being PM, exponentially higher than the current reality. But why should that be such a crucial factor? The country is absolutely obsessed with “status”.
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How good are you at getting things done? Getting other people to understand your point of view? Getting other people to do what you want them to do? Think on your feet?

Join a political party and see if you can make a difference.
 
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