Andy_W
Well-known member
Yeah, the Tory "success" is smoke and mirrors to me, and it's extremely easy to see.
The only way is down I think, but not until after summer, so we've got a few months of this scrap to put up with.
I think some people need to accept one thing - Boris is popular
- Thread starter Jedi boro
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The only way is down I think, but not until after summer, so we've got a few months of this scrap to put up with.
Labour jettisoned 326 Council seats, and control of 7 councils. All those seats were picked up by Tories, or Libdems or Greens. I'm not sure how you reconcile "quite a drop" for the Tories with picking up 235 seats. Did you expect Labour to lose more than 326 seats? As if that wasn't enough there seems to be internecine war going on inside Labour, and all the promising Labour talent is distancing itself from the current predicament.
There's another by-election coming up in the Labour Co-op seat of Batley. Keir Starmer needs that right now like a hole in the head.
Hungary 285.57
Czechia 275.73
Bulgaria 235.6
Slovenia 219.57
Slovakia 216.63
Belgium 212.3
Italy 200.76
United Kingdom 191.36
Poland 179.35
Croatia 177.07
Spain 166.8
Portugal 165.2
France 156.46
Statista, deaths per 100k population to May 2 2021
Funky_Chicken
Well-known member
Funky_Chicken
Well-known member
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I was only looking at vote share.
I‘m not sure why Starmer panicked, if anybody thought these were going to be anything other than a good set of results for the Tories after 20 million in their core vote age group have been given priority through the Covid shutdowns and vaccine rollout then they were in cuckoo land.
Don’t mention the millions who voted for Labour mayors of course.
Funky_Chicken
Well-known member
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
More Tory 77th guff, definite Tory Party Psy Op, probably gets paid per stupid bit of anti Labour propaganda posted.Again more rubbish
FatCat
Well-known member
I think we will see a post covid (if I dare use the word post) boost to the economy which will also see his popularity increase. After that you might be right.
it doesn’t help that the opposition seem to have lost their way a bit. If they can get some sort of unity then they may be able to cut his lead.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Right, and? So we're near the top of the EU "worst performers list", and the rest on there is largely made up of a lot of poorer nations, which brexiteers (and Boris) thinks are worse than the $hit on their shoe.
We're much, much richer than most of those, have better healthcare, have a lot more resources, better developed, better infrastructure, we're an island, have more border control, and some of the similar/ worse nations had a lot less notice than we did.
What excuse do we have for ignoring Asian advice (more experience/ experts), the two-week delay at the start, or January 21 (which was caused by Christmas 20and its lead up)?
We literally knew we were sending more people to death, than we could have, so much could have been easily avoided (and was by others).
Just because 1/4 of other EU nations did worse, is not an excuse, you wouldn't excuse a murderer, because other people commit murders too.
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Laughing
Well-known member
I think the point Soutra was making is that out numbers are not difficult to spin, and they will be.
Lots of people will accept that death wise we are middle of the road, but vaccinations, wow. It's not really very true but who cares.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Yeah, as a basic example we may have dropped 10% and may go back up 5%, but some will see that as a 5% gain, I'll see that as a 5% loss. We've taken a kicking more than our competition and won't recover as well.
I think/ hope summer is a big boost though, we really need the weather to pick up and get people out and spending money. I wan't the economy to recover, more than anything, but just don't see it. I would love to be wrong, I would be the happiest guy ever eating humble pie.
Just saw a post on twitter (albeit not looked into it in detail):
"The view from Pantheon: “The U.K. economy almost certainly was the laggard in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1. GDP was some 8.7% below its pre-Covid Q4 2019 level, much worse than the 0.9% decline in the U.S., 4.4% in France, 4.9% in Germany and 6.9% in Italy.”"
Sounds awseome
Andy_W
Well-known member
They can be spun, but it should only convince the gullible, the problem is there is a lot of them.
If people were honest, had a better grasp on numbers, saw the bigger picture, saw reality etc, then they would see straight through that list, 50% won't though, basically because they don't want to.
SmallTown
Well-known member
Also interesting that the country that is top is having similar autocratic law changes to control its populous. There must be something about tinpot dictators and citizens dying
Yet Corbyn even at his 2019 worst was pulling in more voters than Brown or Miliband managed. And yet Starmer for some reason pitched himself to Labour members as wanting to stick to Corbyn's policies during the leadership election. And yet Starmer's approval ratings first started to nose dive when he booted Corbyn out of the party in November.
But hey never mind all that evidence, take your own gut feeling and just imagine it applies to everyone.
Uwefuchs
Well-known member
People are talking about Boris lacking substance and predicting that this will eventually lead to his downfall. I'm not even sure substance matters that much now.
I honestly think Boris could push a load of Thatcher's policies through one day and a few of Corbyn's the week after and a lot of his fans wouldn't bat an eyelid. Its all about perception and if the media are painting him out to be a national treasure then he can't lose.
Politics has moved away from substance and truth now and its just a big popularity contest. Labour would probably stand as much chance with Chubby Brown as leader as they would with someone like Andy Burnham.
Boris and his team have tapped into the nationalist vote and the narrative is that if you love your country, are patriotic and want to make Britain again then Conservative is the only option.
Labour are seen as a party that hate their country and want to keep the working classes down. Its pretty clever how the right wing politician's and media have flipped reality 180 degrees.
I honestly think Boris could push a load of Thatcher's policies through one day and a few of Corbyn's the week after and a lot of his fans wouldn't bat an eyelid. Its all about perception and if the media are painting him out to be a national treasure then he can't lose.
Politics has moved away from substance and truth now and its just a big popularity contest. Labour would probably stand as much chance with Chubby Brown as leader as they would with someone like Andy Burnham.
Boris and his team have tapped into the nationalist vote and the narrative is that if you love your country, are patriotic and want to make Britain again then Conservative is the only option.
Labour are seen as a party that hate their country and want to keep the working classes down. Its pretty clever how the right wing politician's and media have flipped reality 180 degrees.
Will Starmer be willing to distance himself from Mandelson? And/or bring Corbyn back in to the fold? If not, then it's plainly obvious he's not interested in party unity.
If he really couldn't bare to have Corbyn back as a Labour MP, well he's just done a reshuffle. Perfect opportunity to give someone on the left a role. Rebecca Long Bailey, John McDonald... but nope. Just Rachel Reeves who hates the unemployed and does speeches about being more tory than the tories. That'll unite the party.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Numbers of voters is unfortunately irrelevant in our system (especially when the other side gets more also), it's more important which voters you win, where they live and what seats you can get. It's a $hit system, but it's been that way for ages, they know the rules, and could probably have changed them long before any of this crap happened.Yet Corbyn even at his 2019 worst was pulling in more voters than Brown or Miliband managed. And yet Starmer for some reason pitched himself to Labour members as wanting to stick to Corbyn's policies during the leadership election. And yet Starmer's approval ratings first started to nose dive when he booted Corbyn out of the party in November.
But hey never mind all that evidence, take your own gut feeling and just imagine it applies to everyone.
2010, 258 seats v 306, when Brown got blamed for a worldwide recession you mean, and people were going after Labour for a war the Tories all voted for, so loads ditched Labour thinking they were clever and went and voted Lib Dem (which backfired)
2015, 232 seats v 330, not really much of a change, but the economic recovery was happening, so not easy to beat Tories then, kind of stuck with the devil you know
2017, 262 seats, looks great on paper, but the Tories still got 317, basically gaining in the wrong places, also pretty much a 2 party vote
2019, 202 seats v 365, yes 365! when the Tories were a mess, you can't do anything with 202 seats
What was next under JC,150? The trend wasn't up, that's for sure.
You're trying to convince the wrong person, I would vote labour anyway, as I realise it's the best way to get the Tories out. You need to convince those that ditched Corbyn or the Tories that think he was a moron. You can't ignore 5 people leaving to go to tories (no matter how irrational they are) and pick up 5 from further left, as the 5 from the further left do not exist (I wish they did), and either way it's still a net loss. So you're either now -5 or -10.
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Andy_W
Well-known member
The voters labour lost to brexit/ the Tories don't want Corbyn back, they showed that in 2019, move on, it's over.Will Starmer be willing to distance himself from Mandelson? And/or bring Corbyn back in to the fold? If not, then it's plainly obvious he's not interested in party unity.
If he really couldn't bare to have Corbyn back as a Labour MP, well he's just done a reshuffle. Perfect opportunity to give someone on the left a role. Rebecca Long Bailey, John McDonald... but nope. Just Rachel Reeves who hates the unemployed and does speeches about being more tory than the tories. That'll unite the party.
The left might, but if you appease those too much then again, you don't win those on the right.
What is more important, 1m on the left (that won't EVER vote Tory) or 2m on the right you can steal back from the Tories, for a +4m gain?
Basic maths, it's just numbers, and where you need to get the numbers from.
Labour's only hope, is the election landing at a good time, which would mean a $hit brexit. europe caught up on vaccine, and the EU doing well economically. Then in addition to this they need to pull more of the middle ground and maybe also team up with others. Not ideal, but the population has shifted, labour have to shift or they can't win.