I follow these opinion polls with great interest but.....

[Trug]

can anybody explain to me how the polling companies come to their conclusions? For example, this particular poll asked 2055 people who they would vote for and concluded from that, Labour had a 14 point lead. Would those 2055 people be based all around the country? Would that include Scotland and Wales. Are these people asked at random? Are they cold called? (I personally do not answer calls unless I recognise the number that is calling me)
yhttps://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/uk-s-labour-party-has-14-point-lead-over-conservatives-opinium-poll/ar-AA1g9tGV?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6319b49a42494930b1f447366f029505&ei=106body

 

[Chris_Boro]

How samples are obtained varies between pollsters as their methodology will differ. Most will be online, these will be targeted based on the details they have for people on their database.

There's not really a simple answer unfortunately, you'll need to check the website of each of the pollsters to obtain how they have come to a particular poll.

 

[Trug]

How samples are obtained varies between pollsters as their methodology will differ. Most will be online, these will be targeted based on the details they have for people on their database.

There's not really a simple answer unfortunately, you'll need to check the website of each of the pollsters to obtain how they have come to a particular poll.

Thanks Chris- it's just an idle question while I am quietly getting drunk . But that begs the question- A lot of people , especially older, do not go on line so will not appear on data bases. I find it strange that any opinion could be formed from such a small sample

 

[Chris_Boro]

Thanks Chris- it's just an idle question while I am quietly getting drunk . But that begs the question- A lot of people , especially older, do not go on line so will not appear on data bases. I find it strange that any opinion could be formed from such a small sample

The key part is that it's random samples, you only need to poll certain number from each area and demographic to be able to build a representative example.

Methodology then builds on those answers. They are not asking one question either, they ask many questions that builds the voting history and intentions of the person sampled. This is all then analysed and weighed accordingly.

Polls will have a margin of error of around 2-3 points.

 

[Borotommo]

My Mum has recently moved to North Devon, and hadn’t a clue who her MP was. We looked it up, and it’s a large Tory majority. I told her I’ll be voting labour in my area, but looked at the last result in Devon and she will probably vote Lib Dem to get the Tories out.
considering she used to read the daily express and watch the Beeb, she’s come a long way.