How many years before Britain re-enters the EU?

I don't think the EU will exist as it is at present much longer, 5-10 years at most. Too many countries with domestic v EU oversight..

Germany was the powerhouse economy however their Russian gamble has exposed them as has decades of no defence budget.. if they go into recession the rest of the EU will follow.

May go back to a common market situation with free movement to visit & visas required to stay & work.

Needs to be full integration & one system, just can't see that happening.
 
BobUpnDown said:
I don't think the EU will exist as it is at present much longer, 5-10 years at most. Too many countries with domestic v EU oversight..

Germany was the powerhouse economy however their Russian gamble has exposed them as has decades of no defence budget.. if they go into recession the rest of the EU will follow.

May go back to a common market situation with free movement to visit & visas required to stay & work.

Needs to be full integration & one system, just can't see that happening.
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That was my point.
 
Jedi boro said:
If agree in part but I’d argue that it was those that then voted conservative once the brexit result was known they were the real ones voting for the no deal brexit and the mess we are now in


Leaving the eu had support across all wings of politics even on the left it was the manner that differed.
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It was certainly much clearer the direction of travel at that point.

Despite us apparently "holding all the cards". Strangely I think the posters who insisted that was the case have now left the board.
 
As with most things, it's about the economy. Once they start to implement the rules and regulatary changes they say they want to, it will become apparent very quikly what a s-show they have foisted on us
 
BobUpnDown said:
I don't think the EU will exist as it is at present much longer, 5-10 years at most. Too many countries with domestic v EU oversight..

Germany was the powerhouse economy however their Russian gamble has exposed them as has decades of no defence budget.. if they go into recession the rest of the EU will follow.

May go back to a common market situation with free movement to visit & visas required to stay & work.

Needs to be full integration & one system, just can't see that happening.
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Nah, Germany is a proper grown up nation and they’ll acknowledge their mistakes and build LNG infrastructure (which is happening at lightening pace) and quickly develop other partnerships to ease any brief recession
Like I said, the Germans are to be looked upto unfortunately
 
Just realised I hadn't managed to link the report - YouTube video now attached to OP.
 
Lefty said:
Positioned close to the SM under Starmer, which should see some improvements economically. Full realignment with the SM and Customs Union will then follow as even Leave voters will see the sense. Most didn't expect to leave the SM anyway, they just had their wishes trampled over and vote stolen by the ERG wing of the Party in power when Brexit happened.

Quite whether we rejoin the EU after that I'm not certain. It makes absolute logical sense to, but there would probably need to be a commitment in principle to join the euro which might be a sticking point. That said, every so often the EU realises it needs to amend or revise or add to it's Treaties and Constitution, so in 15 years, especially if it wants the UK back (which it probably will if we have consistently been pro EU), there may be a significant revision such as Lisbon or Maastricht which will allow us to rejoin without that commitment. Despite what Brexiters claim, the EU is pragmatic and therefore has always been damn good at fudge and compromise.
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What exactly is the problem with joining the Euro?
 
I voted for Brexit, knowing there would be short term economic disadvantage. I did not vote for the extreme version we currently have.
It is inevitable that there will be a move towards more economic integration and I would support that. It will happen pretty quickly I believe.
But we won’t go back full EU and embrace accelerated political union, which I fiercely oppose.
I think the EU will have to formally evolve by Treaty, if it is to absorb more members, satisfy all existing members and attract UK back in fully.
The economic argument for leaving was always ridiculous, so we will move closer as we inevitably chase a “Trade deal” with the EU. They will very much want it too.
I don’t mind following rules around Trade even to the point of SM and CU, you have them in any trade deal with anyone.
If we go there, where we should have gone after the referendum, then I will be very happy.
 
JackG said:
You surrender control of both monetary and fiscal policy a la Greece
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How do you work that out? Greece overspent and had to seek bail out from the ECB and IMF. Obviously they were not going to give Greece the money without some controls so they got their money back in the future. Nothing to do with having the Euro. If Truss had carried on the course we were it is highly likely the UK would have had to be bailed out by the IMF who would have imposed similar conditions to Greece.
 
festa5 said:
The problem is if you voted for brexit you voted for the possibility of a no deal brexit.

The ballot paper wasn't remain or leave "with a deal".

It was remain or leave "in whatever form that takes".

That was the risk anyone who voted brexit signed up to. And kindly signed the rest of us up to as well. 😡
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It was pretty damned obvious that
a) some people behind the scenes of brexit wanted a no deal
b) that most brexit voters believed there would be a deal
c) that any deal that could be struck would be such a reduction on what we had before that there would be a push from the powerful to reject it
d) that a vote in favour of brexit would not define what brexit was, and therefore allow the powerful backers to push for the brexit that made them the most money

Sadly, this was ALWAYS the most likely outcome. Those who raised concerns were simply branded as prject fear-mongers, lacking in faith in British exceptionalism, or outrageously classed as traitors.

I remember stating on here at the time, where is the Business Case for Brexit and it's benefits, no executive backs major change without a clear business case, highlight the best, worst and median benefits. The public never ever saw this business case, but it will exist......the reason we didn't see it was because we were not the beneficiaries of any brexit benefits. I stick by this, the ERG will have it's own internal business cases, which it will have shared with certain financial backers at the time, and who will have reaped the benefits of the economic turmoil it caused
 
The future, as I see it, is re-joining the SM and CU. I suspect that Starmer will do this during the next parliament, but it will be called something else. "Market harmonisation" and "Customs alignment" perhaps? Making us "more like Norway" which was a major selling point during the 2016 campaign. You never know we might even sign up to Schengen. The collapse of the EU is just another part of the misinformation campaign used to leverage the collective xenophobia that is depressingly still part of the British psyche. (See also imminent acceptance of Turkey as a member)

Five years for that. EU membership not for another five at least. But I believe it will come.
 
Perhaps the question ought to be how long before the EU and the Euro collapses? In the long term the Euro as a currency is not sustainable,given the incompatibility of the various economies within the Euro Zone. Any attempt by the UK to rejoin would mean accepting the Euro,and the financial debacle that will follow its collapse. Best to give it a wide berth for the foreseeable future.
 
motownjunk said:
How do you work that out? Greece overspent and had to seek bail out from the ECB and IMF. Obviously they were not going to give Greece the money without some controls so they got their money back in the future. Nothing to do with having the Euro. If Truss had carried on the course we were it is highly likely the UK would have had to be bailed out by the IMF who would have imposed similar conditions to Greece.
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If you no longer have a sovereign currency you can't have an independent monetary policy. In the case of the Euro, monetary policy is conducted by the ECB.
If you are a sovereign currency, don't have an exchange rate target, and you're borrowing in your own currency then you have no need for IMF bailouts. You only need the IMF (or other central bank support) when you can't borrow foreign currency.
 
Crusoe said:
Perhaps the question ought to be how long before the EU and the Euro collapses? In the long term the Euro as a currency is not sustainable,given the incompatibility of the various economies within the Euro Zone. Any attempt by the UK to rejoin would mean accepting the Euro,and the financial debacle that will follow its collapse. Best to give it a wide berth for the foreseeable future.
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At last,somebody on this thread with a brain!
 
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