How long before we are back in lockdown?
- Thread starter WindyNook
- Start date
Foggysfplandiet3
Well-known member
Mrs. foggy and I went for a drive today, drove through Berwick. Very, very few people wearing masks, nobody socially distancing, in particular groups of young people and twenty somethings grouped together closely.
ThePrisoner
Well-known member
There will be more and more 'local' lockdowns in the next few weeks until they overlap and merge into one English amorphous blob.
TheYorkshireTerrier
Well-known member
Didn't the same happen in May?
atypical_boro
Well-known member
Lots of temporary local, partial lockdowns I expect, like the one we have now in Manchester. No one would accept another “full lockdown” with no end in sight again, not after the whole Cummings fiasco. I know I wouldn’t.
Foggysfplandiet3
Well-known member
Largest rise in new cases in weeks today. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-coronavirus-deaths-preliminary-figures.html
Yes, I know it’s the Mail.
Yes, I know it’s the Mail.
penry1
Active member
I agree with you on that. Cummings was deffinately a huge turning point to peoples attitudes.
Transitarmy
Well-known member
This track and trace in pubs, do you use the QR t&t or just put Mickey mouse on the sign in in?
WindyNook
Well-known member
Cases per day increasing. First day in a while with over 1000 new cases. Deaths not increasing at the moment because treatment has improved. R rate now between 0.8-1.1 . This will only rise when schools return. I know full lockdown will be a last resort but without a reliable track and trace it might be inevitable
penry1
Active member
Partly treatment has improved but partly cos most vunerable are already dead
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
I don’t think people going the beach will cause a significant hospital admissions, we’ve been here before and it didn’t cause a spike, but probably causes plateau
NYboro
Well-known member
At least the beach is outside. The real killer is people getting together in pubs or restaurants without observing social distancing. Here, the state liquor board is really keeping on top of it. They have already pulled licences here on Long Island and when that happens, it is very difficult to get it back. That and $10,000 fines.......
I've posted about this on another thread and a couple of people seemed to think it was sensible so I'll post a bit of it here and add to it...……….
"When is the 2nd wave?"
No idea, with the government's current approach much will depend on how many people have already been exposed to the virus, how many have developed immunity (likely all those who have had the virus, at least for some period of time), and crucially how many people are still susceptible.
Susceptibiliy is key. I keep hearing reports of "T-cells this" and "T-cells that" and while the research is all very interesting (and may have huge significance) some of the authors of such papers (Shane Crotty for one) are right to note that we do not yet know how relevant this is clinically.
If it is found that a much lower proportion of the population are still susceptible than is thought then there may not be a "2nd wave".
If there is a large proportion of the population still susceptible then a "2nd wave" is inevitable if things open up and people mix. What a "2nd wave " looks like in terms of cases, hospitalisations, deaths no one knows. There is a larger number of tests taking place now and a different section of the population can now access a test.
Just because we see a rise in cases it might not necessarily lead to subsequent increase in hospitalisations and deaths. Everything has to be looked at in context. Far too many people seem unable (or unwilling) to do this.
Does anyone know how many people have had the virus or are still susceptible? No. No one does and that's the problem. The way forward would ideally be very different depending on the answer.
This whole "people are on the beaches!" thing is ridiculous. It is being used by both sides to push an agenda without looking at evidence. Those who are insistent there will be a "2nd wave" continue to point out photos such as this to push the idea there will be a "2nd wave" while those who somehow think "social distancing" has no impact like to point out that there hasn't been a "2nd wave" despite people on beaches / at protests. Both of these positions just ignore context. A few thousand people at beaches or protests will have little impact. We will see what happens when society as a whole opens up...… people mixing at work, indoor pubs, schools going back. We might be OK if a lot more people have had this than we think. That is where, in my opinion, the focus needs to be. We need to be figuring this out though I imagine it is not easy. T-cell immunity certainly looks to have a role to play but to what extent within the wider community just isn't known.
As for a vaccine..... I hate to break it to people who believe this is the only solution but there is absolutely no guarantee there will be a successful vaccine. There hasn't been to date a successful against a 'coronavirus' (please correct me if I'm wrong).
"When is the 2nd wave?"
No idea, with the government's current approach much will depend on how many people have already been exposed to the virus, how many have developed immunity (likely all those who have had the virus, at least for some period of time), and crucially how many people are still susceptible.
Susceptibiliy is key. I keep hearing reports of "T-cells this" and "T-cells that" and while the research is all very interesting (and may have huge significance) some of the authors of such papers (Shane Crotty for one) are right to note that we do not yet know how relevant this is clinically.
If it is found that a much lower proportion of the population are still susceptible than is thought then there may not be a "2nd wave".
If there is a large proportion of the population still susceptible then a "2nd wave" is inevitable if things open up and people mix. What a "2nd wave " looks like in terms of cases, hospitalisations, deaths no one knows. There is a larger number of tests taking place now and a different section of the population can now access a test.
Just because we see a rise in cases it might not necessarily lead to subsequent increase in hospitalisations and deaths. Everything has to be looked at in context. Far too many people seem unable (or unwilling) to do this.
Does anyone know how many people have had the virus or are still susceptible? No. No one does and that's the problem. The way forward would ideally be very different depending on the answer.
This whole "people are on the beaches!" thing is ridiculous. It is being used by both sides to push an agenda without looking at evidence. Those who are insistent there will be a "2nd wave" continue to point out photos such as this to push the idea there will be a "2nd wave" while those who somehow think "social distancing" has no impact like to point out that there hasn't been a "2nd wave" despite people on beaches / at protests. Both of these positions just ignore context. A few thousand people at beaches or protests will have little impact. We will see what happens when society as a whole opens up...… people mixing at work, indoor pubs, schools going back. We might be OK if a lot more people have had this than we think. That is where, in my opinion, the focus needs to be. We need to be figuring this out though I imagine it is not easy. T-cell immunity certainly looks to have a role to play but to what extent within the wider community just isn't known.
As for a vaccine..... I hate to break it to people who believe this is the only solution but there is absolutely no guarantee there will be a successful vaccine. There hasn't been to date a successful against a 'coronavirus' (please correct me if I'm wrong).
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Ye think I agreed with this when you posted it last. Right where I sit.
T cell stuff is interesting, hopefully there’s some credence to it. I wouldn’t pin all my hopes on it.
Foggysfplandiet3
Well-known member
The problem is that a lot of people are not taking a blind bit of notice now when told to wear masks, socially distance and use their common sense. We’ve got tens of thousands crowded onto beaches, we’ve got people camping overnight on the beaches to get a good spot for the next day, cr@pping in the sand, and on streets and in people’s gardens.We’ve got people actively disobeying distancing and mask advice and regulations everywhere. I take the point about beaches being open air but if you are spending time in very close proximity with other people then calling on your aged and vulnerable family afterwards, is there really no prospect of infection?
So what’s next? I presume local councils may get new powers to seize tents and evict potential campers and maybe clear beaches on a night to stop people’s vile toilet habits But how can overstretched council officers and coppers clear a beach ?
People ignore guidance and rules brazenly, knowing that all they will get at worst is a paltry £60 fine, if they are unlucky. Fines need to be increased massively. People who **** in other people’s gardens or in bus shelters or who just stick up two fingers at regulations need to spend a night in the cells then get fined £1000 minimum for the first offence and double for every subsequent offence. Where vehicles are used to flout travel guidance they need to be seized from their owners for a month, minimum. Pub landlords who don’t enforce distancing rigidly need to lose their pubs and go to prison for a while.
Grow some balls, Boris, or clear off.
So what’s next? I presume local councils may get new powers to seize tents and evict potential campers and maybe clear beaches on a night to stop people’s vile toilet habits But how can overstretched council officers and coppers clear a beach ?
People ignore guidance and rules brazenly, knowing that all they will get at worst is a paltry £60 fine, if they are unlucky. Fines need to be increased massively. People who **** in other people’s gardens or in bus shelters or who just stick up two fingers at regulations need to spend a night in the cells then get fined £1000 minimum for the first offence and double for every subsequent offence. Where vehicles are used to flout travel guidance they need to be seized from their owners for a month, minimum. Pub landlords who don’t enforce distancing rigidly need to lose their pubs and go to prison for a while.
Grow some balls, Boris, or clear off.
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Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants
Well-known member
Deaths increase 2-3 weeks after infections increase. It will be interesting to see how it tracks as those most vulnerable may have slready taken the massive hit.
Something else i’ve noticed is the lack of Tickly coughing in covid positive people as the first symptom. Seems to have reduced as a symptom. This is based on where I work, where positive cases are still high. Fever main symptom now. Mutation of the virus? Chest still gets heavy and deep coughs after a few days.