How long before we are back in lockdown?

If my neighbours are anything to go by it won’t be long, they have made absolutely no effort.

sadly if people can’t behave like adults they will need to be treated as kids with greater enforcement of rules.
If not we will just be in and out of lockdown for months!
 
Isn't the reason there has not been a successful vaccine against a coronavirus because there has never been a need for one? They are either not harmful enough for there to be a need for a vaccine (the common cold) or the virus buggered off before a vaccine was able to be made (SARS). Indeed isn't the current research piggybacking on abortive attempts to create a vaccine for SARS?
 
Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants said:
Deaths increase 2-3 weeks after infections increase. It will be interesting to see how it tracks as those most vulnerable may have slready taken the massive hit.
Something else i’ve noticed is the lack of Tickly coughing in covid positive people as the first symptom. Seems to have reduced as a symptom. This is based on where I work, where positive cases are still high. Fever main symptom now. Mutation of the virus? Chest still gets heavy and deep coughs after a few days.
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Indeed, deaths occur 2-3 weeks after infection in general but just looking at an increase in cases may be misleading. At the peak there were ~5000 cases a day being detected? In reality that number will have been a huge underestimate (as now really) as we weren't able to test as much as we are now and also testing was limited to NHS/key workers with symptoms. Now anyone with symptoms can get a test. With contact tracing it should be that testing is picking up positive cases through tracing.

There are other stats alongside cases that will be important..... percentage of tests which are positive, hospital admissions (~96% down on peak), number of calls to NHS 111 etc

What would be interesting to know is what percentage of current tests are asymptomatic
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
Isn't the reason there has not been a successful vaccine against a coronavirus because there has never been a need for one? They are either not harmful enough for there to be a need for a vaccine (the common cold) or the virus buggered off before a vaccine was able to be made (SARS). Indeed isn't the current research piggybacking on abortive attempts to create a vaccine for SARS?
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That is a line of reasoning that I have heard but it is not like a vaccine for 'the common cold' hasn't been researched. I'm far from knowledgeable about viruses but my understanding is that coronaviruses mutate enough to make creating a successful vaccine tricky (I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong).

Also, there has been decades of research into a HIV vaccine without success. Admittedly HIV is a very different virus with different transmission routes but it is a virus of great cost to the western world (which increases research).

I don't like the way politicians (from all sides) just trot out that we will only be able to "get back to normal" when a vaccine is produced. It isn't helpful.

I suspect that one will be pushed as there has been so much money gone into it. How effective it is or if it will even be needed remains to be seen.

And yes, you're right about some of the research for this being based on SARS, which is no longer of concern.
 
T_A_D said:
I've posted about this on another thread and a couple of people seemed to think it was sensible so I'll post a bit of it here and add to it...……….



"When is the 2nd wave?"

No idea, with the government's current approach much will depend on how many people have already been exposed to the virus, how many have developed immunity (likely all those who have had the virus, at least for some period of time), and crucially how many people are still susceptible.

Susceptibiliy is key. I keep hearing reports of "T-cells this" and "T-cells that" and while the research is all very interesting (and may have huge significance) some of the authors of such papers (Shane Crotty for one) are right to note that we do not yet know how relevant this is clinically.

If it is found that a much lower proportion of the population are still susceptible than is thought then there may not be a "2nd wave".

If there is a large proportion of the population still susceptible then a "2nd wave" is inevitable if things open up and people mix. What a "2nd wave " looks like in terms of cases, hospitalisations, deaths no one knows. There is a larger number of tests taking place now and a different section of the population can now access a test.

Just because we see a rise in cases it might not necessarily lead to subsequent increase in hospitalisations and deaths. Everything has to be looked at in context. Far too many people seem unable (or unwilling) to do this.

Does anyone know how many people have had the virus or are still susceptible? No. No one does and that's the problem. The way forward would ideally be very different depending on the answer.



This whole "people are on the beaches!" thing is ridiculous. It is being used by both sides to push an agenda without looking at evidence. Those who are insistent there will be a "2nd wave" continue to point out photos such as this to push the idea there will be a "2nd wave" while those who somehow think "social distancing" has no impact like to point out that there hasn't been a "2nd wave" despite people on beaches / at protests. Both of these positions just ignore context. A few thousand people at beaches or protests will have little impact. We will see what happens when society as a whole opens up...… people mixing at work, indoor pubs, schools going back. We might be OK if a lot more people have had this than we think. That is where, in my opinion, the focus needs to be. We need to be figuring this out though I imagine it is not easy. T-cell immunity certainly looks to have a role to play but to what extent within the wider community just isn't known.

As for a vaccine..... I hate to break it to people who believe this is the only solution but there is absolutely no guarantee there will be a successful vaccine. There hasn't been to date a successful against a 'coronavirus' (please correct me if I'm wrong).
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correct no covid has had a vaccine developed to date
 
LeeMiller said:
Without a vaccine, then we either have to accept local lockdowns or go for herd immunity. How long would herd immunity happen at this rate?
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That's a difficult question to answer. with social distancing we could be anywhere from 2-25% infected, hard to nail down because of the belief (hope) that there are a large number of asymptomatics. Now that means with current lockdowns, it could be 1 1/2 to 25 years for herd immunity.

If you want to do it faster, then you can reduce social distancing, but the cost in lives will be higher because the NHS won't be able to handle higher numbers.

I'd caveat those numbers above (1 1/2 to 25 years) with a) immunity may be temporary which would mean herd immunity will not work, and b) the virus could mutate into another strain and immunity to one strain isn't transferable.
 
Went to a friends birthday in their garden on Saturday. A number of people sat around a table were discussing giving phone numbers in pubs etc. I would say 8 out of 10 said they give false numbers. Add to that I have seen people in the pub who I know are just back from Spain so not self isolating for two weeks. Then there are times when you go to the pub and try to keep two metres apart and some loon plonks himself down in the middle then gets angry when you ask them to move.
Seems to me that people have just give up on it all. Some never bothered with the rules in the first place.
 
asredastheycome said:
Went to a friends birthday in their garden on Saturday. A number of people sat around a table were discussing giving phone numbers in pubs etc. I would say 8 out of 10 said they give false numbers. Add to that I have seen people in the pub who I know are just back from Spain so not self isolating for two weeks. Then there are times when you go to the pub and try to keep two metres apart and some loon plonks himself down in the middle then gets angry when you ask them to move.
Seems to me that people have just give up on it all. Some never bothered with the rules in the first place.
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It's the wilful lack of adherence that gets me from a social responsibility standpoint. It's not just your health that you're protecting, it's the health of innumerable others too. When these people flout the rules does it never occur to them that someone else doing the exact same thing might infect them or their family?
I'm not going to absolve them because of the mixed and muddled messaging from the government, but that has certainly been a factor in creating the situation where some of the public are not doing enough to control the virus.
On one hand you get accused of being overly dramatic if you complain and yet I'll guarantee that if we enter the autumn/winter and it all starts getting worse as we spend more time indoors and the weather changes then these same people will be up in arms if deaths start increasing.
 
Achieving compliance was always difficult. The country has too many selfish idiots who know best.

Agree a big turning point was Cummings. Many were looking for an excuse and here comes the posh Geordie narcissist playing into their hands. No coincidence restrictions started to be lifted immediately after. They didn't have much choice as they knew people would increasingly ignore it anyway.

They essentially gave permission for people to make their own rules by ridiculously insisting Cummings had done nothing wrong.
 
We had a walk down to our local on Saturday tea time after working in the garden all day, the weather was nice. We only went in for one it was that busy so we just detoured to the shop and got some beers to have in the garden. We've been down 3 times over the last 2-3 weeks, but during the week and it's been fine, or perhaps more accurately, we've been comfortable with being there. There's clearly an issue with those who forget or ignore the guidance after a few. The younger ones weren't even bothering to begin with. The pub should limit the number they allow in to maintain social distancing as it was so busy it wasn't possible.
 
People have been cramming onto beaches for months and hasn’t made much difference to the infection rate, the problem is indoors and enclosed spaces. The virus is now being spread by teenagers and young people who don’t care and have been told from day one “for young people it’s a mild disease” That’s why in the U.K. and Europe we are seeing infections go up but not deaths so much, that and better treatment and more testing for a virus that has been a lot more prevalent in society than people think. Also a lot of the most vulnerable and susceptible to the virus have already and sadly already been claimed by it. Can’t see there being a second national lockdown, the country wouldn’t survive economically and people wouldn’t adhere to it anyway. There will be a vaccine because economically there has to be, there may never have been a vaccine for any other corona virus before but none has been as deadly or economically damaging so the world will throw unlimited resources at it. Half the problem with vaccines isn’t producing them, it’s if there is a market and financially it’s worth it. They were close to a vaccine for SARS but abandoned it after they got it under control and didn’t want to waste more money on it.
 
Beaches have been busy since the 2 May Bank Holidays and every one since.

We have BLM protests all round the country and VE day celebrations / Liverpool Leeds promotions / 'Block' parties and Raves etc.

Still yet to see any '2nd wave'. The shops are pretty much back to normal (bar wearing mask) and people seen to be going back to normal in terms of passing on pavements etc.

I'm not medical expect and I think it's pretty much a giver that we will see another spike. I just find it 'amusing' that people keep taking photos of beaches etc with the usual hashtag of covidiots (usually taken by folk at the beach😂).

I wouldnt want to go to those beach's even without covid. I can't think of anything worse than packed beach with a sparkling of British chavs / no toilets / no parking etc.
 
S7DiscoDown said:
Beaches have been busy since the 2 May Bank Holidays and every one since.

We have BLM protests all round the country and VE day celebrations / Liverpool Leeds promotions / 'Block' parties and Raves etc.

Still yet to see any '2nd wave'. The shops are pretty much back to normal (bar wearing mask) and people seen to be going back to normal in terms of passing on pavements etc.

I'm not medical expect and I think it's pretty much a giver that we will see another spike. I just find it 'amusing' that people keep taking photos of beaches etc with the usual hashtag of covidiots (usually taken by folk at the beach😂).

I wouldnt want to go to those beach's even without covid. I can't think of anything worse than packed beach with a sparkling of British chavs / no toilets / no parking etc.
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So what your really saying is shops aren’t back to normal then because people are wearing masks
 
dooderooni said:
It's the wilful lack of adherence that gets me from a social responsibility standpoint. It's not just your health that you're protecting, it's the health of innumerable others too. When these people flout the rules does it never occur to them that someone else doing the exact same thing might infect them or their family?
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Lots of people saying I won't wear a mask on facebook and twitter. Funny thing is most of them have union jacks and St George flags on their profiles, yet won't put a piece of cloth over their face for the betterment of their fellow citizens. It's almost as if they don't really understand the concept of patriotism. This country would have been FUBAR'ed if WW2 took place today with all the idiots refusing to go to bomb shelters because the war is a government hoax to control us all
 
S7DiscoDown said:
Beaches have been busy since the 2 May Bank Holidays and every one since.

We have BLM protests all round the country and VE day celebrations / Liverpool Leeds promotions / 'Block' parties and Raves etc.

Still yet to see any '2nd wave'. The shops are pretty much back to normal (bar wearing mask) and people seen to be going back to normal in terms of passing on pavements etc.

I'm not medical expect and I think it's pretty much a giver that we will see another spike. I just find it 'amusing' that people keep taking photos of beaches etc with the usual hashtag of covidiots (usually taken by folk at the beach😂).

I wouldnt want to go to those beach's even without covid. I can't think of anything worse than packed beach with a sparkling of British chavs / no toilets / no parking etc.
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It's not back to normal behaviours, and everyone isn't behaving like this....if we all behaved like this there would be a second spike. What is happening is that we are 'only' getting 10-150 deaths per day because 40% of people are being strict following the rules, and 20% are laxely following some rules, and the selfish traitorous 20% are doing what they please.
 
BoroMart said:
It's not back to normal behaviours, and everyone isn't behaving like this....if we all behaved like this there would be a second spike. What is happening is that we are 'only' getting 10-150 deaths per day because 40% of people are being strict following the rules, and 20% are laxely following some rules, and the selfish traitorous 20% are doing what they please.
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And it’s likely that it’s that ‘traitorous 20%’ (your words, not mine) that are the ones shouting ‘see, no second wave! It’s all just a load of fuss over nothing! No need to wear a mask!Blah blah blah’
...Completely ignorant to the fact that it’s only not out of control because the rest of the population are following the rules to some degree, thereby protecting them. Ignorant, selfish, *******.
 
I am dreading the thought of a second wave, but I think this is driven by fear and not by the data.
Death rates are low, although I don't understand why Englands are so much higher than the other nations.
Numbers of new cases are increasing, but this could be explained by a number of factors before we blame the publics behaviour. For example, we are testing more people so the numbers will increase. Are the tests being better targeted to those who have been in contact with someone who has the virus. Are the tests more accurate than before. Is the mix between Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 altering the interpretation of the results.
I would also like to understand the age ranges that are being tested positively now, are they the younger generation or is it a mix.

Undoubtedly the government havent handled the situation well. Confusing policies in the UK countries, mixed messages, messages with a seemingly lack of logic or consistency. In any handling of this type of issue, you should release some control slowly and measure the effect before announcing the next stage, not indulge in a race due to economic reasons.

Personally I would rather have waited until the 'R' was significantly below 1 before unlocking, meaning that the virus is in retreat and not maintaining its level. I would have thought a target of 0.5 would have been far more sensible.
 
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