Herd Immunity

[HolgateCorner]

It sounds like a lot would need to die to get enough infected for herd immunity to work.
Thats too expensive. It doesn't matter if you live in south bank or westminster. I don't want you to get this.

I think Mr Johnson’s confrontation with the Grim Reaper last week in St Thomas hospital will have put the herd immunity suggestion to bed.

 

[Redwurzel]

If 60% are required to get the virus for herd immunity that is around 40m people - if the fatality rate was 0.5% that's 200000 people that will die and I would guess 800000 hospitalised. Even over a 12 month period would everyone be willing to accept this. The NHS would not be doing many operations for time which would add to the death rate. In the whole of WW2 we only lost about 300,000 troops.

Surely that shows the UK Government can't let the virus run its course. We have to find a vaccine and money has to be thrown at this - How much is a just one life worth never mind 200000 lives. Mass testing is also a must, its criminal we are only testing 15000? a day and its costing lives as we are wondering around a bit in the dark - we knew this was coming since the end of February.

 

[br14]

Only the most serious cases i.e. those who have to be sedated and intubated are sent to ICU, so I would say yes BJ has definitely had care your everyday joe public would not get, in that he’s probably had close attention in an ICU

All he's had is oxygen. To get that he has to be in a room supplied with oxygen. In most hospitals that means the ICU, operating theatres and recovery rooms or parts of A&E.

There isn't oxygen to other wards. (It's supplied by "plumbing").

In other words, if you need oxygen, you're getting the same treatment as BJ. Because if you need oxygen you need monitoring of various kinds either in the ICU, or in some room converted to be an ICU. I have had oxygen in hospital on at least two occasions, and each time my blood oxygen levels, blood pressure and heart were monitored.

 

[br14]

Surely that shows the UK Government can't let the virus run its course.

Forgive me if logic fails me, but unless we have a vaccine or other therapy the virus is going to run its course whether we like it or not. All we can do is suspend life and slow down the progression of the disease.

But at what price? In the meantime the economy crashes. Millions are out of work. They may also lose their homes. They become pray to alcoholism, domestic abuse, and drugs. (Around 10,000 people die in the UK each year from suicide and drug abuse).

And unless there is some breakthrough, in the end the same number of people will die, just over a longer period. (28,000 are estimated to have died from influenza in 2015 - did you notice?).

We might just destroy the economy in the process. There's a limit to how much governments can borrow, and with Western economies all desperately trying to borrow money the interest will be so high they will never repay. (Assuming someone is ready to buy the bonds). Italy is almost certainly going to be bankrupt in weeks. We could print money, but we'd end up like pre-WW2 Germany, wheeling our worthless cash around in a wheelbarrow. The result would be the end of the welfare state as we know it, and the collapse of the NHS as tax revenues dry up, and interest payments take what tax is collected.

As someone who has a high probability of death if I was infected, I know I am subject to house arrest for at least two years, and possibly for the rest of my life. I may never see my elderly parents again. All I can hope is that there is a breakthrough in treatment or a vaccine. We still don't have a production ready SARS vaccine after 17 years. If I was younger and healthier, I would take my chance. If this situation continues for much longer, I might just take the chance anyway.

But it is always our choice. Even if the government were to open up the economy and try for herd immunity, as individuals we can continue to isolate if we're concerned. They would need to identify and protect the vulnerable, and provide decent protection for NHS front-line staff, but if German researchers are correct, the actual number of seriously affected is actually much lower than originally thought. One town in German had 15% infected. Two thirds of those infected didn't even know they had been exposed to the virus. Only 5% had tested positive, and Germany is doing a lot of testing.

 

[bear66]

Forgive me if logic fails me, but unless we have a vaccine or other therapy the virus is going to run its course whether we like it or not. All we can do is suspend life and slow down the progression of the disease.

But at what price? In the meantime the economy crashes. Millions are out of work. They may also lose their homes. They become pray to alcoholism, domestic abuse, and drugs. (Around 10,000 people die in the UK each year from suicide and drug abuse).

And unless there is some breakthrough, in the end the same number of people will die, just over a longer period. (28,000 are estimated to have died from influenza in 2015 - did you notice?).

We might just destroy the economy in the process. There's a limit to how much governments can borrow, and with Western economies all desperately trying to borrow money the interest will be so high they will never repay. (Assuming someone is ready to buy the bonds). Italy is almost certainly going to be bankrupt in weeks. We could print money, but we'd end up like pre-WW2 Germany, wheeling our worthless cash around in a wheelbarrow. The result would be the end of the welfare state as we know it, and the collapse of the NHS as tax revenues dry up, and interest payments take what tax is collected.

As someone who has a high probability of death if I was infected, I know I am subject to house arrest for at least two years, and possibly for the rest of my life. I may never see my elderly parents again. All I can hope is that there is a breakthrough in treatment or a vaccine. We still don't have a production ready SARS vaccine after 17 years. If I was younger and healthier, I would take my chance. If this situation continues for much longer, I might just take the chance anyway.

But it is always our choice. Even if the government were to open up the economy and try for herd immunity, as individuals we can continue to isolate if we're concerned. They would need to identify and protect the vulnerable, and provide decent protection for NHS front-line staff, but if German researchers are correct, the actual number of seriously affected is actually much lower than originally thought. One town in German had 15% infected. Two thirds of those infected didn't even know they had been exposed to the virus. Only 5% had tested positive, and Germany is doing a lot of testing.

The town where there was evidence of 15% of people carrying antibodies could be good news or the consequence of poor antibody testing capability. More interestingly, the researcher in charge swabbed down s complete house where two Covid-19 people were living and found no traces of the virus on any surface in the house, which begs the question, have we completely misunderstood the transmission mechanism. There are two cases in South Korea where people have 'caught' the disease a second time many weeks after they had recovered, or, as the medical people there believe, it is more likely that the disease has returned from dormancy. This would be worrying as it puts the whole antibody hope into question and may explain why so many tests are failing.

As far as 'herd immunity'is concerned, von der Leyen is reported saying today that she believes the elderly and vulnerable will need to remain isolated for the rest of the year when it's hoped a vaccine will be available. The authorities in Germany are gearing up companies to be ready to make the vaccine as soon as one becomes available. I hope we are doing the same rather than that becoming another scandal in this crisis.