General Election - Second half of 2024

[Redwurzel]

Feel like I'm missing something here? Labour in 2010 had been in power 13 years? Tories in 97 had been in for 18 years? Even if you mean PMs Brown had been in 3 years, Major 7?

I was applying in to terms of the Government between elections so 2010 was 5 years because there had been an election in 2005. In 1997 the Conservative government had had 5 years since the 1992 election etc.

There could an element that some people don't vote for stretched out Governments that are seen as a bit tired.

Seasonally the Autumn is sometimes seen as the end of the year as nights draw it and trees shed their leaves - in some instances that again could be applied to Governments especially when they have been in along time.

 

[MolteniArcore]

They are toast right now.. might as well hang on and raid every last piggy bank.. sell off every last public ally owned asset.. pish in the kettle.. shyt in the shower.

Also.. they might just give Labour enough time to show themselves up! Reform are making up ground..Lib Dems may see gains..

Coalition of chaos anyone?

Early election might limit Reforms gains and catch them off guard?

 

[newyddion]

Early election might limit Reforms gains and catch them off guard?

I don’t think the tories want to limit their gains or catch reform off guard.

 

[Markburke]

One thing we know for definite is that the Tories have a huge war chest to campaign with. They will be loads of poisonous personal stuff from all the media outlets that are in their back pocket. There will also be loads of bile on social media from supposedly independent sources so read everything with a very large pinch of salt. The 'bots will be working overtime.

 

[Ziggy]

Access talks were granted by Sunak to opposition parties was given last month.
This allows meetings between, Labour and others to have talks, confidential, between themselves and senior civil servants. This might be at least one of the reasons why there’s been some serious shifts in what Labour’s policies at the time of the election might be.

Sunak clears civil service to hold pre-election access talks with Labour Party

Cabinet secretary Simon Case will “oversee” discussions between officials and Keir Starmer’s team

www.civilserviceworld.com

 

[MolteniArcore]

Reports on Twitter that one poll have Labour losing 7 points.

Sunak will have to jump on this. If the Tories don’t have an utter disaster with these by-elections I bet he’ll call a GE for May.

 

[FishofContemplation]

I was applying in to terms of the Government between elections so 2010 was 5 years because there had been an election in 2005. In 1997 the Conservative government had had 5 years since the 1992 election etc.

There could an element that some people don't vote for stretched out Governments that are seen as a bit tired.

Seasonally the Autumn is sometimes seen as the end of the year as nights draw it and trees shed their leaves - in some instances that again could be applied to Governments especially when they have been in along time.

I suspect that tends to get cause and effect the wrong way round. Governments stagger on into a fifth year because they are behind in the polls in the hope that something will come up, and usually it doesn’t. Although your list does omit 1992, when it did. Add that one in, and remember that 2010 was a hung parliament (which would produce a labour government this time I am sure) and you could argue that the last four results read, for the incumbent, LWLD so it’s hardly an irresistible trend. It does feel the current one has an irresistible mood to it though.

 

[Scrote]

Reports on Twitter that one poll have Labour losing 7 points.

Sunak will have to jump on this. If the Tories don’t have an utter disaster with these by-elections I bet he’ll call a GE for May.

Labour being held back due to the rampant antisemitism within the party. Haven't we seen this somewhere before?

You'd have thought they'd have tried to deal with it by now.

Starmer out!

 

[sherlock]

Labour being held back due to the rampant antisemitism within the party. Haven't we seen this somewhere before?

You'd have thought they'd have tried to deal with it by now.

Starmer out!

There is no rampant antisemitism in the Labour party.

These latest 'incidents' seem ridiculous to me. There is nothing antisemitic about questioning the known fact that Israel were warned in advance about the Hamas attack and chose to do nothing.

There is also nothing antisemitic about questioning the resulting genocide of the Palestinians.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

There is no rampant antisemitism in the Labour party.

These latest 'incidents' seem ridiculous to me. There is nothing antisemitic about questioning the known fact that Israel were warned in advance about the Hamas attack and chose to do nothing.

There is also nothing antisemitic about questioning the resulting genocide of the Palestinians.

I think it depends on how you express your views.

Personally I was shocked that the Israeli secret service weren't all over this type of plot in the way I'm sure that ours, the US etc aren't all over plots to inflict damage on 'us'.

However this goes beyond that. 1, he has no proof of it and 2, he's suggesting that people were essentially sacrificed, you just don't say it.

It could come out over the coming months and years that he is correct (I doubt that) but he's still in the wrong right now, if he is looking to run for office.

 

[MolteniArcore]

There is no rampant antisemitism in the Labour party.

I tend to agree. I also don’t think that the majority of the voting public would remove their vote from Labour due to the media coverage of the party in recent days. I could be wrong but when it comes down to it I think the country wants the Tories out more than anything.

 

[Soutra]

Reports on Twitter that one poll have Labour losing 7 points.

Sunak will have to jump on this. If the Tories don’t have an utter disaster with these by-elections I bet he’ll call a GE for May.

The election would be called in about a month from now if it was May 2, the local election day.

Don't see it being called that soon myself.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

The election would be called in about a month from now if it was May 2, the local election day.

Don't see it being called that soon myself.

No they're going to time it alongside the US election.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

There is no rampant antisemitism in the Labour party.

These latest 'incidents' seem ridiculous to me. There is nothing antisemitic about questioning the known fact that Israel were warned in advance about the Hamas attack and chose to do nothing.

There is also nothing antisemitic about questioning the resulting genocide of the Palestinians.

The point being that the anti-semitism ‘scandals’ that engulfed and subsequently brought down one of, if not both of the two previous Labour leaders were ramped up, jumped on and actively encouraged, endorsed and pursued by large groups of people who knew they were complete rubbish. They did that because they wanted the previous Labour leader(s) out. They went along with the lies and mud-slinging initiated by the right-wing press instead of doing the right thing and standing up for those who needed it most. They put themselves and their own careers first. And in doing so, completely backed themselves into a corner. Any time any Labour leader looks like they have a sniff of power, out come the stories of anti-semitism.

It’s amazing that to think that those who consider themselves clever and progressive perpetuated this stuff seemingly without thinking about what may happen in the future. They gave the right a golden ticket and they didn’t even realise, they were too busy celebrating destroying a left-leaning Labour movement that wanted to end ideological austerity and begin redistributing wealth. They shat on not only the figurehead of that movement, but the millions and millions of people who desperately needed the Tories OUT.

The anti-semitism won’t go away because it works. That’s why those calling the shots and running the news outlets are happy to keep doing it, inciting it, whipping it up. I expect to see loads more of it leading up to the election. The right knows it works. It damages people.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

The point being that the anti-semitism ‘scandals’ that engulfed and subsequently brought down one of, if not both of the two previous Labour leaders were ramped up, jumped on and actively encouraged, endorsed and pursued by large groups of people who knew they were complete rubbish. They did that because they wanted the previous Labour leader(s) out. They went along with the lies and mud-slinging initiated by the right-wing press instead of doing the right thing and standing up for those who needed it most. They put themselves and their own careers first. And in doing so, completely backed themselves into a corner. Any time any Labour leader looks like they have a sniff of power, out come the stories of anti-semitism.

It’s amazing that to think that those who consider themselves clever and progressive perpetuated this stuff seemingly without thinking about what may happen in the future. They gave the right a golden ticket and they didn’t even realise, they were too busy celebrating destroying a left-leaning Labour movement that wanted to end ideological austerity and begin redistributing wealth. They shat on not only the figurehead of that movement, but the millions and millions of people who desperately needed the Tories OUT.

The anti-semitism won’t go away because it works. That’s why those calling the shots and running the news outlets are happy to keep doing it, inciting it, whipping it up. I expect to see loads more of it leading up to the election. The right knows it works. It damages people.

I think you're over-thinking this and I respect you for knowing and considering it. Corbyn just didn't win. If he had he wouldn't have been brought down. You can argue that lots of political people were doing lots of political things I guess.

At the end of the day; Corbyn lost loads of voters and even in an East London area (where I was in 2019) with a mix of different people (Ilford North) none of what you talk about even matters.

It looks like Starmer will, win at the moment. Its an improvement on what we have and hopefully as a nation we can check him to maintain that.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

I think you're over-thinking this and I respect you for knowing and considering it. Corbyn just didn't win. If he had he wouldn't have been brought down. You can argue that lots of political people were doing lots of political things I guess.

At the end of the day; Corbyn lost loads of voters and even in an East London area (where I was in 2019) with a mix of different people (Ilford North) none of what you talk about even matters.

It looks like Starmer will, win at the moment. Its an improvement on what we have and hopefully as a nation we can check him to maintain that.

It’s not just Corbyn I’m referring to, it’s the whole movement from the grassroots up. Just shat on again and again.

I think Starmer will more than likely win a landslide at the next election and I have everything crossed that he brings these movements back into the fold. I’m talking about doctors, nurses, teachers, students, minorities, the sick, elderly and disabled. I hope he ends austerity. I don’t trust him but I really, really hope he starts to change his approach once in office. We have to hope he does otherwise what’s left.

 

[Unravel_Morrison]

It’s not just Corbyn I’m referring to, it’s the whole movement from the grassroots up. Just shat on again and again.

I think Starmer will more than likely win a landslide at the next election and I have everything crossed that he brings these movements back into the fold. I’m talking about doctors, nurses, teachers, students, minorities, the sick, elderly and disabled. I hope he ends austerity. I don’t trust him but I really, really hope he starts to change his approach once in office. We have to hope he does otherwise what’s left.

So if he does....?

 

[Ziggy]

There’s a pile on. The cynic in me, which is not far from the surface when politics is concerned.
There’s been, according to one poll a 7 point downward shift due to what someone did, or didn’t say.
This a gift to the Tories, who from now on, will use everything and anything, to claw back.
What isn’t said will be manufactured to sound like it has been..heavy manners are needed.
Difficult but necessary.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

So if he does....?

Then those in most need of help and support will get it and he starts rebuilding the trust of those he lied to on the way into office.

I understand politics is a dirty business. There are those who say Starmer has no choice but to lie, dodge, manipulate and say whatever he has to say to get into office, and that once there he can start to given like a proper Labour leader. I don’t particularly subscribe to that but that’s what I hope will happen.

There are too many people in dire need for it not to. Services and systems are crumbling. We need him to begin repairing them.

 

[LessoftheLip]

There's two by-elections tomorrow. If there's going to be any voter impact it will show up in the results.