Forest`s points deduction stands [Prem Lg].

Should have deducting them a further 4 points, for having the balls to appeal 😝…didn’t Aliadiere once get his ban increased from 3 games to 4 games as we appealed? ….does that still happen?
 
B_G said:
No I'm not. I'm focusing on how many points you would have needed to beat one of the top 17 teams and therefore finish 17th or higher. And that was 40 in that season. Or 39 with a better goal difference than Burnley.


In 20/21 if Fulham had achieved another 5 points and got 33 points, they still would have been relegated. 33 points wasn't enough that season. Fulham were just well short of the 40 they needed.




Let's put a different scenario. If Boro had got 91 points this season would they have finished top 2 because Leeds finished 3rd on 90? Obviously the answer is no. They would have finished 3rd. Ipswich finished 2nd on 96. Boro would have finished 3rd. 97 points would have been required to finish 2nd.
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You just made Billy's argument for him b_g. In the finish auto place, Boro would have to better one of the top 2 teams point total. However to avoid relegation you have to better the bottom 4 teams point total.

Billy is right on this one.
 
Laughing said:
You just made Billy's argument for him b_g. In the finish auto place, Boro would have to better one of the top 2 teams point total. However to avoid relegation you have to better the bottom 4 teams point total.

Billy is right on this one.
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To avoid relegation, you need to finish in the top 17 teams.
To finish 17th, you need to beat the total of the 17th placed team and relegate them to 18th.

To gain automatic promotion, you need to finish in the top 2. So you would have needed to beat second place Ipswich's total and relegated them to third.

In fact neither are wrong, it's a different way of looking at it. We are putting a hypothetical scenario in place. You, Billy and others are saying the hypothetical team has to beat 3 teams to be safe in the PL or beat 22 teams to finish in the automatic spots of the Championship. Where as I am saying the hypothetical team has to be in the top 17 teams to be safe or top 2 teams in the Championship to be relegated. Neither are wrong but it gives you a different result.

91 points would have beaten 22 teams and got you in the promotion place.
97 points would have got you into second and got you a promotion place but 91 points wouldn't have.

It depends whether you look top down or bottom up. I am working top down. You guys are working bottom up.

Your way of looking at it would be that 71 points was good enough for play-offs this season as Norwich could have finished on 71 and beaten 18 teams.
I would say 71 points wasn't good enough because 6 teams would have finished above you. If Boro or Hull had got 71 points we still wouldn't have been in a play-off place as 6 teams would have still been above us. We weren't 2 points short of play-offs. We were 5 points short.

Both are correct.
 
B_G said:
To avoid relegation, you need to finish in the top 17 teams.
To finish 17th, you need to beat the total of the 17th placed team and relegate them to 18th.

To gain automatic promotion, you need to finish in the top 2. So you would have needed to beat second place Ipswich's total and relegated them to third.

In fact neither are wrong, it's a different way of looking at it. We are putting a hypothetical scenario in place. You, Billy and others are saying the hypothetical team has to beat 3 teams to be safe in the PL or beat 22 teams to finish in the automatic spots of the Championship. Where as I am saying the hypothetical team has to be in the top 17 teams to be safe or top 2 teams in the Championship to be relegated. Neither are wrong but it gives you a different result.

91 points would have beaten 22 teams and got you in the promotion place.
97 points would have got you into second and got you a promotion place but 91 points wouldn't have.

It depends whether you look top down or bottom up. I am working top down. You guys are working bottom up.

Your way of looking at it would be that 71 points was good enough for play-offs this season as Norwich could have finished on 71 and beaten 18 teams.
I would say 71 points wasn't good enough because 6 teams would have finished above you. If Boro or Hull had got 71 points we still wouldn't have been in a play-off place as 6 teams would have still been above us. We weren't 2 points short of play-offs. We were 5 points short.

Both are correct.
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They aren't really both correct because it's an historical comparison once the games are complete.

Historically you only need to beat the bottom 3 teams individual totals, not finish in 17th because it's historical data, the event is complete.

It's a super example of interpreting statistics to suite.
 
Laughing said:
They aren't really both correct because it's an historical comparison once the games are complete.

Historically you only need to beat the bottom 3 teams individual totals, not finish in 17th because it's historical data, the event is complete.

It's a super example of interpreting statistics to suite.
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Both are factual statements.

In the example we have used above, 2020-2021 season.

If you look top down 33 points would not have been enough to finish above Burnley in 17th who finished on 39 points. Surely you agree with this statement? It is a fact.
If Fulham had gained an extra 4 points and got 33, they would still have finished 18th and been relegated.

If you look bottom up 33 points beats 3 teams so it is also hypothetically correct that 3 teams would be below them. It is also correct that Burnley could have finished on 33 points and survived.

Basically we are adding a hypothetical team into the equation. A 21st team that finishes 18th out of 21 teams. You are saying the bottom 3 are relegated so they would survive. I am saying the top 17 stay up so they would be relegated. Again, both are correct.

In the Championship scenario you are saying the hypothetical team on 71 points beats 18 teams so you are saying they would be in the play-offs. I am saying the hypothetical team on 71 points was beaten by 6 teams so they aren't in the play-offs. Again both are correct.

You are right, this stat can be interpreted either way to suit an argument but they are both correct

Out of curiosity, how many points short of the play-offs would say Boro were this season? 2 or 5? Because I would say 5 as we would have needed to beat Norwich to displace them in 6th. But by using your theory, Boro would have only needed 2 more to finish on 71 and beat 7th place Hull.
 
B_G said:
Both are factual statements.

In the example we have used above, 2020-2021 season.

If you look top down 33 points would not have been enough to finish above Burnley in 17th who finished on 39 points. Surely you agree with this statement? It is a fact.
If Fulham had gained an extra 4 points and got 33, they would still have finished 18th and been relegated.

If you look bottom up 33 points beats 3 teams so it is also hypothetically correct that 3 teams would be below them. It is also correct that Burnley could have finished on 33 points and survived.

Basically we are adding a hypothetical team into the equation. A 21st team that finishes 18th out of 21 teams. You are saying the bottom 3 are relegated so they would survive. I am saying the top 17 stay up so they would be relegated. Again, both are correct.

In the Championship scenario you are saying the hypothetical team on 71 points beats 18 teams so you are saying they would be in the play-offs. I am saying the hypothetical team on 71 points was beaten by 6 teams so they aren't in the play-offs. Again both are correct.

You are right, this stat can be interpreted either way to suit an argument but they are both correct

Out of curiosity, how many points short of the play-offs would say Boro were this season? 2 or 5? Because I would say 5 as we would have needed to beat Norwich to displace them in 6th. But by using your theory, Boro would have only needed 2 more to finish on 71 and beat 7th place Hull.
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It's true, but isn't good statisticaql analysis of a past event.

Let me try it this way B_G. In an hsitorical event where team A finished third bottom on 35 points and team B finish 4th bottom on 40 points. Your example says that team A would needed to have ammassed 41 points to avoid relegation, right?

Now that may or may not be true, we don't know, because we can't re-run the games. If the one game you change is Team B, who beat Team A in the actual season, lost, then the table would look different and there would be a sicx point swing to team A, meaning team B get relegated. You can't do this, statistically speaking.

What you have to do, and again I am speaking statistically, is where would you slot team Z with enough points to avoid relegation. Where team Z are a theoretical team.

Any other approach requires a re-run of the season.

I absoloutely get where you are coming from but it is poor statistical analysis because the event has ended. If the season were still ongoing, your approach would be the correct one.
 
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