Facts that blow your mind

Laughing said:
Yeah I generally disagree with the principle. Think back to the post a million is roughly a billion away from a billion. It's the difference in scale.

No need for offence to be taken by either of us, interesting conversation.
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A lot of work being done by the word roughly in both those examples though. The difference between a million and a billion may be 'roughly' a billion, but it isn't a billion exactly. A very big number is roughly the same as the very big number minus a very small number is obvious but in the example is only surprising if you don't appreciate the difference in size between a million and a billion beforehand.

0.12mm may look roughly the same size as a galaxy on a big enough scale but they aren't the same, just another example of how unimaginably large the universe actually is that we can even debate such a scale.
 
Brian Marwood said:
The Monty Hall problem is beautiful:

  • There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car.
  • You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course.
  • Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one with a goat. (If both doors have goats, he picks randomly.)
Here’s the game: Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the unopened door? Does it matter?

Surprisingly, the odds aren’t 50-50. If you switch doors you’ll win 2/3 of the time!
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Heard this one before.

There is a 1/3 chance originally. If you select one there is a 1/3 chance you are right. A 2/3 chance you are wrong.

Taking away one of the other doors doesn't change the odds, there is still a 2/3 chance on the other side because you know that if you picked the wrong door originally then the right one is definitely there and since the odds of your door were 1/3 then the other side must be 2/3 so you should always swap.
 
Sunderland hold the record for most consecutive Premier League losses in one season. They lost the last 15 games of the 2002/03 season.
They also went on to lose their next 5 Premier League games, (2005/06). Giving them the record of most consecutive losses of 20 games.

In a run of 32 games they only recorded one win.... guess who 🙁
 
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In the time it took me to read the post above and post this one the national debt of the USA increased by $2 million dollars 😳
 
Laughing said:
Still not buying this, and as I said earlier, my fact so I am judge Judy and executioner on this one. I pronounce em the same.

You may pronounce them August and augoost, but then you would just be a posh b****d.
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The IPA (International Phonetic Alphabet) is a universally-accepted method of showing exactly how words are pronounced in every language in the world.

The IPA spelling of the two uses of the word show that the first vowel sound in both, is exactly the same.

I have no idea what the spelling "augoost" is supposed to represent but it doesn't look anything like how I pronounce the word (nor how it's supposed to be pronounced).

The main difference between the two uses of the word is actually the stress rather than the vowel sounds (as again, the IPA clearly shows). Regular English spellings of words do not show where the stress is but the IPA does.

When the word is used for the month of the year, the stress is on the first syllable, for the other meaning it's on the second syllable.
 
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I
Liamo said:
The IPA (International Phonetic Alphabet) is a universally-accepted method of showing exactly how words are pronounced in every language in the world.

The IPA spelling of the two uses of the word show that the first vowel sound in both, is exactly the same.

I have no idea what the spelling "augoost" is supposed to represent but it doesn't look anything like how I pronounce the word (nor how it's supposed to be pronounced).

The main difference between the two uses of the word is actually the stress rather than the vowel sounds (as again, the IPA clearly shows). Regular English spellings of words do not show where the stress is but the IPA does.

When the word is used for the month of the year, the stress is on the first syllable, for the other meaning it's on the second syllable.
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think you had a woosh moment. My posts around August were not meant to be taken seriously that's why I put the judge Judy comment in.
 
Laughing said:
I was aware of this and have even simulated it to prove. However I still don't underrstand why. Your common sense tells you it should still remain a 1 in 3 chance.

I do understand that you have a bit more information than you had at the begining, and thats what reduces the odds, but, the host could always open one of the two remaining doors. So do you really have more information. You knew when you selected, in your example door A that either B or C would contain a goat, so do you have more information. You now know that, lets say door C has a goat. Previously you knew that B or C had a goat 100%, but not which one.

Thats why I ran the simulation and it is the case that if you swap choices, you win 2/3rds of the time. If you don't you win 1/3rd of the time.
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Because the artificial act of opening the door to an already known empty room effectively transfers all of the probability to the second unpicked door. If the order of events was slightly different it would be clearer, but effectively the choice the contestant gets is "stick with your current door or pick both of the other two".
 
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