atomicloonybin aka ALB
Well-known member
Apropos of nowt, my neighbour's 71 reg Tesla was on the back of a tow truck this morning.
Electric cars to cost more to run then petrol/ diesel cars
- Thread starter Lightweight
- Start date
These arguments are all for/against buying a new car but there is another issue, marginal cost, which could change things significantly. Many people will already own two cars and will have to make decisions on which one to drive at certain times. I have an EV and an ICE. We almost exclusively drive the EV and the ICE is the back-up however, once the price cap increase comes in then I am only going to care about one thing, marginal cost. I don't have an overnight EV tariff. I work from home, have young kids etc so I am a high daily user and the increased unit cost for the rest of the day makes the overnight tariff not worth it for us. So now I am looking at either the cost of petrol or the cost of electricity and it's no longer clear cut. If the £6k average predictions are correct and prices go up to that then choosing the EV makes much less sense. That in turn will change the market for things like 2nd hand cars again so your TCO calculations that include lower depreciation for EVs could be massively out.Easy to bat this down.
Seems they've made the classic school-boy mistake of not factoring in the total cost of ownership, and they think that fuel cost is the only car cost. Possibly lazy journalism, but more likely headline to try and catch clicks (seemingly it works on the non-EV crowd).
Then they've made the second classic mistake of not comparing like for like, they've relied on a database of unalike cars, which is also including loads of older EV's which are less efficient. They say they're comparing like for like later, for the individual cars, but don't mention what they're comparing too, classic. For the SUV test they used the least efficient EV that exists, which is effectively a bus
Also, it doesn't factor in that loads of EV owners have overnight tariffs, this makes the electric about 1/3 to 1/4 of the cost. An overnight tariff at the minute is about 8-10p and might go to 15p-20p per kW (not 52p).
Back in the real world.....
My car is a sporty large car/ SUV and I'm getting around 3 miles per kW, and the equivalent in its class in petrol isn't doing 41-48mpg, it's 25mpg, at best.
Effectively, to get 500 miles from my car it's ~167kW, which at the 8p overnight tariff is £13, even if it doubles that's only £26. A 25 mpg ICE would cost 35p per mile, so £175. So, even at £25 for 500 miles, I'm paying £50 a month, v the £350 of the ICE car, so I'm still going to be £300 a month better off, on electric/ fuel alone. Never mind that I've also got solar, and no solar battery (saved install cost/ excess goes into the car).
Then it's not factoring in no VED, which saved me £2000 in Year 1 and £500 a year for 2,3,4,5 etc.
Also, not to mention cheaper services, and longer warranties on batteries and motors, compared to engines.
Also, no mention of EV's not depreciating at the same rate (or same value) as like for like ICE cars, which is a much larger proportion of the TCO cost, of newer cars. My car was worth 20% more the day I drove it off the forecourt.
The old arguments of short ranges and no chargers are becoming less common too, as batteries are more efficient, ranges are longer and there are more chargers, which are also a hell of a lot faster. Batteries will only get more efficient, and hence will EV efficiency.
The electric cost has narrowed the gap, for people only charging at peak rates (which is a bit silly), but TCO on EV's is still far, far cheaper.
The price cap is a one-off/ perfect storm, which will probably also get subsidised, but the cap will also likely come back down in 2024. I can't see the price of oil coming down much but can see taxes on oil use going up.
I lease my EV and own my ICE so it's moot for me but if I owned both and a recession hit and I was desperate for cash it would be the EV which I sold first. I'd imagine that could be the case for a lot of people. It's going to be hard to predict future market rates at the moment so I wouldn't be too confident that a case could be made for EVs definitely being cheaper. If I was a betting person then I'd guess they would in the long run but who knows how long high electricity prices are going to stay.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Of course a family holiday will cost that when you tot it up, unless you holiday in skegness for a weekend. Many many people will be spending that for a family of four.
The idea that mining for resources for batteries is not viable is bunk. Is it harmful to the environment, yes, is it causing global warming, no it's a net reducer.
The infrastructure for charging does not need to be ten fold, not in one incremental step. There is plenty of infrastructure now, it just needs to be ahead of the curve of uptake in electric vehicles.
The price of the cars does not need to be halved to make them affordable, the prices like all new tech has already massively reduced, the overall cost is already lower over a number of years and will continue to come down.
I've noticed you've dropped the argument that batteries cannot be recycled.
But of course if you feel that we should move away from cars to a public transport network, then making cars more expensive is a perfect incentive. If people want a car, make it electric so it doesn't choke the skies, and make it expensive so there are fewer vehicles. Then people will have to take public transport. Win-win
Last edited:
BoroMart
Well-known member
considered getting solar? If you have the roof space for at least 12 panels, you could effectively drive for free and reduce your house electric costs.
BoroMart
Well-known member
cool story bro, I've seen new ICE vehicles on tow trucks too
BoroMart
Well-known member
It's not really about belief. It's been proven time and again that they are over the lifetime of the vehicle. I saw a really interesting quote form Emily Matlis the other day how at the BBC they would find a 100 economics experts that could appear to give a reasoned debate on why brexit was bad. The research team would then spend weeks trying to find an economic expert who could stand up and give a reasoned argument for brexit. All in the name of fairness. This is exactly why some people are clinging onto the idea that EVs are more harmful to the environment than ICE.
When I looked at it the numbers didn't stack up. Better return on just putting the cash in an S&S ISA. Either way, I don't have the cash to be paying the money up front and waiting 5-10 years to break even. I'm hoping that the government get pushed into funding solar installation costs and/or paying the same for the feed-in tariff as we pay to purchase.
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
If you have the roof space and can afford both panels and an electric vehicle you're doing fairly well.
BoroMart
Well-known member
I'd check again because with the cost of electricity that return will reduce. YEs the government absolutely should be pushing more residential solar. Will help extracate us from energy price fluctuation and geo-political issues
BoroMart
Well-known member
I'm doing fine, I recognise that, but I worked hard and gave things up to study, so this is my payback. Ignoring the EV part solar should be on everyones radar to get yourself self sufficient. Plenty of finance deals too. Yes it might take 4-6 years at current prices to get your money back, but then it's all gravy beyond that
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
Lots of people work hard, it's how society survives. Not everyone gets rewarded the same and many were working hard on a poor wage while you had the chance to study, and they're still working hard for a poor wage now.
Solar should be on the government's mind too, a decent government would be having panels fitted across the country at an affordable cost.
BoroMart
Well-known member
I'm sure plenty of people do work hard, I'm just stating that I have worked hard from humble beginnings, single parent upbringing, worked in a nightclub to pay for myself through uni, working 70+ hours at Uni+nightclub for 3 years to get a break in life and get myself out of the povety of my upbringing. Not everyone is prepared to do that, in fact, most are not. Despite having been through that I'd argue that maybe people shouldn't be expected to do that to get a good education?!
Beyond that when I was made redundant during 2009 I took my redundancy and invested about 45% of it in training for myself, again its about sacrifices, and not everyone is prepared to make them for the longer term. Such is life, we all have decisions to make on how hard we want to work, what we are prepared to give up.
Instead of peeing money up the wall, maybe the government should be putting huge amounts of money into solar now to reduce the national need for energy. It would be far better than the air source heat pump scheme. If everyone had solar (impossible I know), then the average bill would be ~60% less than what they are quoting today.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I've been banging on that the government should dish out interest-free loans so everyone can do it, turns out they don't really need to as a lot of the suppliers are giving out interest-free loans to do it already. The only problem to solve now is that people won't want to pay to upgrade if they're going to move, so there should be a simple way to offset those payments against the actual house, so when people buy they take over the solar payments. This would really get the market moving.
4 panels is enough to power a house for someone WFH, so there's no reason why that should cost the earth.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I don't know, it's insane. We don't exactly have a great record in running things efficiently when nationalised either. If they think someone on 50k a year is going to be able to run E-On, then they've got another thing coming.Why do people think you can just nationalise something and have all their assets, experience and investment suddenly available at our whim? Not to mention years of legal wrangling.
Imagine the gas and oil industry being ran like track and trace, thrilling prospect but I'm sure our costs would totally come down
Also, people seem very much open to making these businesses sell for less than what they're paying too, effectively busting these companies, so we can buy them back cheap/ for nothing, which is effectively theft.
Imagine if Gibbo was told he had to provide transport at a loss, so he went bust (and Boro then went bust) and we ended up with some Tory buying us on the cheap who wouldn't back us, and ran us into the ground, there would be hell on.
Andy_W
Well-known member
My Electric will go up by about £25 a month for my car (to £50), but fuel has gone up from £1.40 to £1.80+, so it's gone up £45 (to £185) for someone in a 45mpg ICE.
I don't get what they're gloating at?
You're right about the Brexit comparison, it's like people are celebrating they won a vote to be poorer.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Air source heat pumps aren't a bad idea, they will end up being a good idea once we completely get rid of gas.
Solar won't heat homes in winter though, it won't kick out enough juice, so I suppose we need a balance of Wind, Grid Solar, Home Solar, Nuclear and then people running their CH from electric sources, rather than Gas (which we largely don't own).
Andy_W
Well-known member
We've got two cars, my EV and the missus ICE, I drive the EV all the time and she drives the ICE all the time, if we're ever going anywhere together we largely take the car which is more suitable for the job, which is usually my car as it's bigger/ better. It won't cost me more than £30 in mine for 1000 miles, hers is around £170 (much smaller, less capable/ slower car too). Even if I was paying 50p a kW it would be the same as ICE fuel, and we would still go in mine.
What do you work from home as, not running a Marijuana/ BitCoin Farm, I expect? What were you using before you got the EV, per day in kW?
Have you worked out the comparisons? I did the same for myself not long back, seems I'm in a similar circumstance to yourself.
I worked out the increased rate cost of WFH, so having cereal at home and running a pan and toaster for 10 minutes for lunch will make little difference, neither will running a 350W PC for 10 hours (that's only about £1, so would only be ~20p more for using the higher rates). The largest cost was heating (during winter), but that's Gas. So an overnight Electric tariff, and the cheapest Gas daily use tariff seemed to suit best.
Bulb's overnight tariff is 36p during the day and 7p from 2am to 6am. (I'm not on this tarrif, I'm waiting on the one from E-On next, as it's a 7 hour window).
So, even if I used 10kW of higher rate electric, per day, excluding the EV, which is quite a lot, this would cost 10 x (35p-28p) = 70p more per day, so call that £20 a month.
If I drive 1000 miles a month, in a 3 mpKW car, that's 330kW of electricity. At 28p per kW that's £92, at 7p per kW that's £23. So the overnight tariff costs £20 more for the month in other electric but saves £70 on the car. Basically, £50 better off with this overnight tarrif.
Even if I used 20kW of higher rate electric (excluding the EV), which is loads, this would cost 10 x (35p-28p) = 140p more per day, so call that £40 a month.
If I drive 1000 miles a month, in a 3 mpKW car, that's 330kW of electricity. At 28p per kW that's £92, at 7p per kW that's £23. So the overnight tariff costs £40 more for the month in other electric but saves £70 on the car. Basically, they would be £30 better off.
Someone would need to use a hell of a lot of juice, or not do many miles, to not make an EV tarriff worth it, they would need to use something like 35kW per day, which is obscene.
Be careful letting the energy suppliers work this out for you, they have no interest in you getting the best deal, but you will know that.
Electric and Fuel costs will at worse, be the same for anyone looking to buy a new EV, and that will likely only last a year or so. There's no guarantee Oil or tax on it won't go up in that time either, and it's not likely to go down, without Electric coming down too. We're currently constructing loads of renewables too, which should lighten the load/ gas imports. Obviously, there's the VED thing, along with maintenance and warranty etc, which suit putting miles on the EV.
ICE's are being phased out, they've already lost the race due to tech and climate issues, once the new batteries are out, and with steady increases in infrastructure they will be the final nails in the coffin. Range's won't go much above 300 miles mind, as any larger than that is not necessary and they will do it with smaller batteries, and hence charge even faster (which only matters on long trips > 200 miles).
EV's will start to depreciate more, as more and more EV's flood the market, but that could be 3-5 years away. By then it will be 2025-28, when a lot of manufacturers have completely stopped making ICE cars for the UK market. ICE's will go down at similar or larger percentages from there too. The only thing that will make EV lose, relative to ICE, is for a brand new tech to come out, which isn't on the horizon. The only change is the better batteries, but current cars still have good range, the only flaw would be slightly more expensive to run (than newer EV's) and slightly longer to charge. The charge time is irrelevant for home charging though, is this is often overnight anyway.
If I had to sell one of two cars though, I'd sell my EV, largely as it's gone up 25% in value due to massive demand, and with that money I'd swap the lasses car for a bigger EV (something like a Kia) and then probably order a petrol 2 seater for myself, and drive an older car whilst I was waiting the year for it to be built
ICE sounds cooler than EV which could be working against EV's. Maybe we could call them baddies and goodies. That way we can differentiate better.
I think the same arguments seem to be on repeat. If you can afford it, or get it through business EV's work well. In the longrun we will all likely be heading for EVs as they get cheaper for people like me who holiday in Skegness. At present due to energy uncertainly there may be a bit of short term parity.
Oh, and range anxiety is a thing.
I think the same arguments seem to be on repeat. If you can afford it, or get it through business EV's work well. In the longrun we will all likely be heading for EVs as they get cheaper for people like me who holiday in Skegness
. At present due to energy uncertainly there may be a bit of short term parity. Oh, and range anxiety is a thing.
BoroMart
Well-known member
A family, 2 adults and 2 kids, with food and entertainment, of course it's going to be around that these days...in fact I just did a quick check on Tui for next year, midrange 3/5 and they come in at between 1,800 and 2,300 for a family of four in spain. Of course that doesn't include food and drinks and trips.