Donald Trump - another irrelevance if he becomes president

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FabioPorkpie said:
In the latest episode of the rest is politics US edition, Scarmucci suggested there is some funny business with the markets and a reason for it -

Transcript -

“We both know that the polymarket, which is a thinly traded market outside the United States, the scales have been tipped on that market by many billionaires, betting Trump try to make people think that this is a preordained thing. People say to me, well, how does that help Trump won't his voters not show up?

Well, you don't know Trump's voters. They're going to show up in the pouring rain and the freezing cold. They're trying to get Harris voters to say, hey, this thing is too far gone.”

From The Rest Is Politics: US: Trump’s Plan For Power, 25 Oct 2024
podcasts.apple.com

Trump’s Plan For Power

Podcast Episode · The Rest Is Politics: US · 25/10/2024 · 55m
podcasts.apple.com podcasts.apple.com
This material may be protected by copyright.
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I heard this today (great podcast BTW). However assuming:

1) someone is going to use tens of millions to swing the market to manipulate voting intentions in Tumps favour
and
2) Trump supporters will turn out whatever
and
3) Harris supporters are flaky

Then surely it makes more sense to make it look a Harris certain win?

I still think the price at the moment is just reflecting current polling in the swing states rather than any market manipulation.
 
InflatableDinosaur said:
I heard this today (great podcast BTW). However assuming:

1) someone is going to use tens of millions to swing the market to manipulate voting intentions in Tumps favour
and
2) Trump supporters will turn out whatever
and
3) Harris supporters are flaky

Then surely it makes more sense to make it look a Harris certain win?

I still think the price at the moment is just reflecting current polling in the swing states rather than any market manipulation.
Click to expand...
The latest movement in them polls are all in Trump’s direction according to that
Guardian has them still giving Harris a small lead
 
Not even trying to woo the undecided here - confident that they’ll win anyway?

www.theguardian.com

Trump fills Madison Square Garden with anger, vitriol and racist threats

Marking final stretch of campaign in New York, Trump and cabal of surrogates attack Harris and mock Puerto Rico
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

www.theguardian.com

Racist remarks and playing to the base: key takeaways from Trump’s MSG rally

The ex-president took the stage at Madison Square Garden, where he doubled down on his anti-immigration rhetoric and gave little on his economic agenda
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
TeessideCleveland said:
Not even trying to woo the undecided here - confident that they’ll win anyway?

www.theguardian.com

Trump fills Madison Square Garden with anger, vitriol and racist threats

Marking final stretch of campaign in New York, Trump and cabal of surrogates attack Harris and mock Puerto Rico
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

www.theguardian.com

Racist remarks and playing to the base: key takeaways from Trump’s MSG rally

The ex-president took the stage at Madison Square Garden, where he doubled down on his anti-immigration rhetoric and gave little on his economic agenda
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Racist party just wanted to hold a big Nazi rally. Plenty of far right idiots in NY sadly (though, thankfully not enough to flip NY red. NY hasn't voted for a Republican president in 40 years!)
 
InflatableDinosaur said:
I heard this today (great podcast BTW). However assuming:

1) someone is going to use tens of millions to swing the market to manipulate voting intentions in Tumps favour
and
2) Trump supporters will turn out whatever
and
3) Harris supporters are flaky

Then surely it makes more sense to make it look a Harris certain win?

I still think the price at the moment is just reflecting current polling in the swing states rather than any market manipulation.
Click to expand...
I agree with this. Making it look like Trump is going to win on the betting markets doesn't make sense. Spending many millions to influence the betting to give a mixed message is a bit nonsense. Seems to me like wishful thinking from people that don't want to believe that Trump will win.

Harris is favourite to win the popular vote but not the electoral college which makes polling more difficult.
 
I thought Trump would beat Clinton. I also thought Biden would beat Trump. I don’t really know why I thought these things but in the case of Clinton it just seemed obvious - people didn’t want the same old political class ruling them and wanted a change.

This time around I honestly can’t see past a Harris win. I think it will be bigger than everyone could imagine too.

The USA knows what Trump is. The right is much louder in the US - mainly because it has been taken over by loons and I think that this is what is giving the indication that Trump is level / ahead.

Come polling day I think some reality may bite and Harris will get the nod.

Part of me would like Trump to win just to see what he does. It is going to be mental if he starts locking up his opponents, deports millions and whacks 20% tariffs on stuff. It may well be the end of US democracy or the end of the Republican Party!

Looking at the odds on Skybet it looks to be a done deal but I think I backed Trump at 4/1 when he won so Harris been 6/4 really means nothing.

Hoping Harris drifts as we get closer and I might put some money on.
 
MolteniArcore said:
I thought Trump would beat Clinton. I also thought Biden would beat Trump. I don’t really know why I thought these things but in the case of Clinton it just seemed obvious - people didn’t want the same old political class ruling them and wanted a change.

This time around I honestly can’t see past a Harris win. I think it will be bigger than everyone could imagine too.

The USA knows what Trump is. The right is much louder in the US - mainly because it has been taken over by loons and I think that this is what is giving the indication that Trump is level / ahead.

Come polling day I think some reality may bite and Harris will get the nod.

Part of me would like Trump to win just to see what he does. It is going to be mental if he starts locking up his opponents, deports millions and whacks 20% tariffs on stuff. It may well be the end of US democracy or the end of the Republican Party!

Looking at the odds on Skybet it looks to be a done deal but I think I backed Trump at 4/1 when he won so Harris been 6/4 really means nothing.

Hoping Harris drifts as we get closer and I might put some money on.
Click to expand...

I think £100 returning £262 on bet365 is not a bad bet at all. I can see her drifting to 2/1 though before the weeks out.
 
MolteniArcore said:
I thought Trump would beat Clinton. I also thought Biden would beat Trump. I don’t really know why I thought these things but in the case of Clinton it just seemed obvious - people didn’t want the same old political class ruling them and wanted a change.

This time around I honestly can’t see past a Harris win. I think it will be bigger than everyone could imagine too.

The USA knows what Trump is. The right is much louder in the US - mainly because it has been taken over by loons and I think that this is what is giving the indication that Trump is level / ahead.

Come polling day I think some reality may bite and Harris will get the nod.

Part of me would like Trump to win just to see what he does. It is going to be mental if he starts locking up his opponents, deports millions and whacks 20% tariffs on stuff. It may well be the end of US democracy or the end of the Republican Party!

Looking at the odds on Skybet it looks to be a done deal but I think I backed Trump at 4/1 when he won so Harris been 6/4 really means nothing.

Hoping Harris drifts as we get closer and I might put some money on.
Click to expand...
Good post. I think Harris might win with a bit of a bigger gap than expected but am worried about the shithousery the Mango Mussolini might try again. A small part of me wants him to win just so it goes all to hell and they end up resetting and stopping this kind of thing happening again. Either way, the USA is massively divided and could conceivably end up fracturing into two separate countries along old Civil War lines.
 
Littlejimmy said:
Good post. I think Harris might win with a bit of a bigger gap than expected but am worried about the shithousery the Mango Mussolini might try again. A small part of me wants him to win just so it goes all to hell and they end up resetting and stopping this kind of thing happening again. Either way, the USA is massively divided and could conceivably end up fracturing into two separate countries along old Civil War lines.
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Is the split that geographically demarcated though? For example, polling and early voting suggests for some reason a lot of women don't want a creepy rapist cnut in the White House. But women seem to be distributed all over the shop.
 
Littlejimmy said:
Good post. I think Harris might win with a bit of a bigger gap than expected but am worried about the shithousery the Mango Mussolini might try again. A small part of me wants him to win just so it goes all to hell and they end up resetting and stopping this kind of thing happening again. Either way, the USA is massively divided and could conceivably end up fracturing into two separate countries along old Civil War lines.
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"Mango Mussolini" Love that :LOL:
 
The mind boggles at their voters and their antics, although our country is just as divided in each town or city.

The media control by the wealthy unhinged and anxious, I suppose there may be a stage where it boils over as the BBC and mainstream media in general have brought the ultra far right in to the openings and support it and still do.
The most money normally pays for the most violence as they say.

The USA ,Id love to see some sense happen again and Harris get in, but there are 50% of their country citizens who would like pure anarchy, and its much the same with the idiots here.
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
I can't get my head around why 80ish million people are going to vote for a creepy, racist, misogynist sexual predator who idolises Hitler. It is utterly utterly barmy. Some mad delusion or cult has taken hold.

Also I cannot understand how Trump gets a free pass on his senility when Biden was hounded out of the race due to his senior moments.
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Same. It is genuinely bemusing
 
speckyget said:
Is the split that geographically demarcated though? For example, polling and early voting suggests for some reason a lot of women don't want a creepy rapist cnut in the White House. But women seem to be distributed all over the shop.
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A very good point. I just don't know how it would work. It could even be a less clear geographical split with the Easter and Western states becoming a country separated by the central states l.
 
Littlejimmy said:
A very good point. I just don't know how it would work. It could even be a less clear geographical split with the Easter and Western states becoming a country separated by the central states l.
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Generally I think the pattern is coastal states vote blue and the non-coastal flyover states vote red, or orange in this election. Florida is orange but that might be due to the people moving to florida from the central states in retirement?
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
I can't get my head around why 80ish million people are going to vote for a creepy, racist, misogynist sexual predator who idolises Hitler. It is utterly utterly barmy. Some mad delusion or cult has taken hold.

Also I cannot understand how Trump gets a free pass on his senility when Biden was hounded out of the race due to his senior moments.
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The information they have access to doesn't tell them that is what he is.
A lot of the popular media in the US paints him in a very favourable light.

His base is strongly skewed towards the less educated section of US society. They don't do well at distinguishing between well-evidenced information and loud, persuasively voiced, claims or denials.

If one side is saying he is a monster and the other a god, they will tend to agree with whichever one they prefer, based on what it would mean to them if it was true.

That's why so many don't believe in global warming, and do believe in an afterlife - 'cos it would be nicer if both were that way.

Similarly, the big orange man being a great guy who is going to fight for the common man against the corrupt elite and will MAGA is a nicer reality to for them to live in than the one where he is a fascist dictator wannabe and their lives under the current government are as good as it's going to get.
 
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