Donald Trump - another irrelevance if he becomes president

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Juninhoburger said:
*Taps*

"Betting markets are not an accurate indicator of who will actually win the US election"

for the umpteenth time, a little bit more aggressively this time
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What's that based on? Betting markets, particularly exchanges are pretty accurate at gauging the chances of an event happening. That's a fact.

I have no idea about political events but one would assume it's the same knowledgeable people looking to profit from an election as those trying to profit from a sporting event.

Had trump got a 60% chance of winning the US presidential election? Probably. He also has a 40% chance of losing.
 
Laughing said:
I have no idea about political events but one would assume it's the same knowledgeable people looking to profit from an election as those trying to profit from a sporting event.
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Electioneering is all about bluster and rhetoric. That’s can, especially when one of the candidates is a cultist sociopath who will repeatedly lie and brag give a false impression of his position, then this can have a knock on effect on public belief in his likelihood of winning. I don’t think it’s an accurate indicator or as accurate as say sporting markets, which again are not particularly accurate
 
speckyget said:
Aren't these betting markets heavily influenced by offshore money - i.e., people who don't actually get to vote in the election?
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Probably, but that doesn’t make them any less susceptible to trumpet propaganda as we see Trump cultists on this country too
 
speckyget said:
Aren't these betting markets heavily influenced by offshore money - i.e., people who don't actually get to vote in the election?
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Every betting market has Trump favourite to win.
Harris of course may win, I hope she does, but that doesn't change the fact that at this moment in time more people think Trump will win.
Just because this doesn't fit into people's narrative who desperately want Trump to lose doesn't make this any less true.
 
BoroMart said:
Electioneering is all about bluster and rhetoric. That’s can, especially when one of the candidates is a cultist sociopath who will repeatedly lie and brag give a false impression of his position, then this can have a knock on effect on public belief in his likelihood of winning. I don’t think it’s an accurate indicator or as accurate as say sporting markets, which again are not particularly accurate
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I have no idea Mart, it's not something I get involved in. There is a spectactular amount of money bet on the event, over 100 million matched on betfair with another near 7 million waiting to get matched at the prices available. That suggests to me that there is a bit more than market sentiment at play here.

To dismiss what an exchange betting market tells us is, essentially, dismissing wisdom of the crowd. A fairly well established statistical theory.

Oh, may be interesting to mention that the figures I have given are from the UK market, though betfair is largely outlawed in most US states, so it may be American money, nit uk money
 
I genuinely can't see trump winning. Surely there are not enough dumb people to swing the vote his way. Someone of average intelligence, even in the US, must see him for what he is.
 
Laughing said:
I genuinely can't see trump winning. Surely there are not enough dumb people to swing the vote his way. Someone of average intelligence, even in the US, must see him for what he is.
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Sadly it's not like over here where the most votes wins - the electoral college states have always decided who wins the election and right now Harris is on track to gain the states she needs to get to 270 electoral votes.

Two weeks is a long time in politics, anything can happen. There's been rumours of an incredibly damaging (even to Trump who would appear bulletproof) video being offered to major news outlets at the moment, we'll see if anything comes of that.
 
Juninhoburger said:
Sadly it's not like over here where the most votes wins - the electoral college states have always decided who wins the election and right now Harris is on track to gain the states she needs to get to 270 electoral votes.

Two weeks is a long time in politics, anything can happen. There's been rumours of an incredibly damaging (even to Trump who would appear bulletproof) video being offered to major news outlets at the moment, we'll see if anything comes of that.
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He has a total and utter free pass on anything.

He said vote for me now and you will never have to vote again and he said he will be a dictator if he is elected.

He has said he will use the military against his political enemies. He could not be clearer in that he intends to make the US an autocratic fascist state. If people are still intending to vote for him after that then no video will stop them.
 
speckyget said:
But if the crowd don't get to influence the outcome? Could it not just as easily be wishful thinking rather than insight?
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The wisdom of the crowd theory doesn't have anything to do with a crowd influencing the outcome. The most famous example was a farmer who figured out an advantage in a guess the weight of the bull competition. He would wait until the end of the day and tally up all the other guesses and average them.

One thing with an election, that wouldn't be a factor in "guess the weight of the bull" is that there is a tendency to follow the crowd. This phenomona happens in sporting events too. A horse starts to get backed and it shortens in price as the public all jump onto a "good thing". However, as the price shortens, it inevitably meets resistance as the smart money comes in to lay the horse and push it's price back out to the "real" chance.

I don't know if these factors play a part in a political betting market. However, as I said to Mart, there is an incredible amount of money being traded in the market, suggesting there is a lot of proffessional money being traded.

On the bobs comment isn't really very accurate though. I think brexit was 1 to 10 on, which means there was a 10% chance that the referendum would go the way of brexit, and it did. Markets tell us very little about a one off event, other than the chance of it happening. 1 to 10 chances get turned over from time to time.
 
Juninhoburger said:
Sadly it's not like over here where the most votes wins - the electoral college states have always decided who wins the election and right now Harris is on track to gain the states she needs to get to 270 electoral votes.

Two weeks is a long time in politics, anything can happen. There's been rumours of an incredibly damaging (even to Trump who would appear bulletproof) video being offered to major news outlets at the moment, we'll see if anything comes of that.
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Trump has been proven to be a lot of unsavoury things.......this video must contain farmyard animals.

That or it's his cosy friendships with Epstein catching up with him?
 
h_m_boro said:
Trump has been proven to be a lot of unsavoury things.......this video must contain farmyard animals.

That or it's his cosy friendships with Epstein catching up with him?
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Anything will do at this point. Whilst his behaviour hasn't seemed to turn his core supporters off, they are probably not the voter he has to win. Let's hope.
 
I think people will put money on Trump because it's a win:win

If Trump wins, they make money = WIN

If Harris wins, they don't have Trump as president = WIN
 
red_harrington said:
One word:

Brexit
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I think there were genuine reasons why the vote went the way it did. It isn't all to do with folks being dumb. There will have been a group of people who wanted to try something different, anything. It didn't matter if it made sense. We see the same thing on matchday threads. Carrick should make changes, its because people feel helpless and doing something, even if its the wrong thing, feels enpowering.
 
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