Delta Variant

Pak_Doo_Ik

Well-known member
60% more transmissible and vaccines less effective against it (but still up to 84.4% effective with 2 doses)

Did we ever get the trade deal with India which is believed to have been the reason why they weren't put on the red list???
 

TeaCider

Well-known member
It doesn't appear to have affected the death rate significantly. If people are catching it but not getting seriously ill then surely 21st June can go ahead as planned?
7 day average deaths

There tends to be up to a month lag between cases and deaths.

The variant was only detected in the UK for the first time under 2 months ago, and the cases have only started shooting up in the last few weeks, any impact on deaths is still yet to be felt, I'd say.

Though obviously we're all hoping it's negligible.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Of the 42 deaths recorded, 23 were in unvaccinated people with 12 among those who were fully vaccinated and seven among people who had had one dose. Two thirds of cases are people not vaccinated. So more transmissable, more harmful but the vaccines still do work. Generally positive news. I guess this will be the data on which they'll finalise the decision in Monday.
 
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bear66

Well-known member
"Half the people who died of it have been vaccinated"

Is this for real ? Genuine question.
I revised the numbers above. It's 19 out of 42.

Back in January over 30% of hospital admissions were dying. This has fallen to about 8%, with higher risk vaccinated people contributing about 4%.
 

Low_Key

Active member
"vaccinated" is the easy word to throw about. i wonder what the ages of the people were and if they had other underlying health issues.
 

TeaCider

Well-known member
"Half the people who died of it have been vaccinated"

Is this for real ? Genuine question.

He's edited his post to provide more clarity already, but 12 of the 42 people who have died from it in England had both doses.

Though I've not seen any data on the age and health condition of the 12 to have died.
 

bear66

Well-known member
He's edited his post to provide more clarity already, but 12 of the 42 people who have died from it in England had both doses.

Though I've not seen any data on the age and health condition of the 12 to have died.
About a month back there was a PHE person on R4 saying that there is a significant minority of older people who don't seem to develop immunity with vaccination. I guess that's always been an issue with flu vaccination as well.
 
He's edited his post to provide more clarity already, but 12 of the 42 people who have died from it in England had both doses.

Though I've not seen any data on the age and health condition of the 12 to have died.
This apparent oddity may come back to the fact that a very high proportion of those who are most at risk of death have had at least some vaccinations.

As at 16th May over 90% of people aged 70+ in the North West had had two doses. (Archive here)

Therefore if the 30 people who died without having had two doses were all in the 70+ age bracket and the vaccines had zero effect you would have expected that 270 fully vaccinated individuals would have died.

That only 12 have died suggests the vaccine is 95% effective in preventing death.

I'm sure some of the deaths will be in younger age groups but I suspect that the calculations will be similar.

(Minor edit to calculation reducing effectiveness from 96% to 95%)
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Your maths is all over the place there Homer, and the conclusion is wrong too mate. Clearly vaccinations are having a huge impact, though.
 
Oh me neither homer. The assertion that if vaccines were not effective everyone who was vulnerable would die isn't really the case,though I see an edit now to correct that. 👍
Just an attempt at a fag packet calculation on that set of numbers as I'm far too lazy to go looking for more detail. That's why I assumed everyone who died was in the 70+ age group. Of course with the high numbers vaccinated in the older age groups an increasing proportion of deaths will be in younger age groups.
 

Cambsred

Well-known member
We are entering a real world research study on vaccination efficacy and effectiveness. Fingers crossed it is 95% +.

I think the population needs to be more aware that 95% still puts a significant % of people at risk and caution is still very much required. Deaths will go up as positive cases go up as nothing we are doing is 100%
 

Jonny Ingbar

Well-known member
I revised the numbers above. It's 19 out of 42.

Back in January over 30% of hospital admissions were dying. This has fallen to about 8%, with higher risk vaccinated people contributing about 4%.
I though every vaccine that has been approved so far has had provided 100% protection against death and very serious infection, regardless of the transmission efficacy?
 

bear66

Well-known member
I though every vaccine that has been approved so far has had provided 100% protection against death and very serious infection, regardless of the transmission efficacy?
It wasn't 100% with the Alpha variant and seems to be lower with the Delta variant.

In the USA over 100 million have been fully vaccinated and, although there has been a 94% reduction in hospitalisation, there have been 132 deaths.
 
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