Nobody is saying they know for certain?
Come on Andy, every brexit thread has the same group of people predicting the apocalypse.
I do disagree with what you said earlier though about 'non essential' jobs. Every job is essential wether you are a waiter, a bin man, a nuclear scientist, a police officer or a warehouse operative. A waiter's job might not be essential to you but it is to the waiter. In my opinion those deeming certain jobs 'non essential' are showing a bit of snobbery.
Well, I can't talk for others, but if I say Brexit is going to be a nightmare, and far worse than the alternative then I don't mean for certain, but I mean it's exceptionally likely. You don't need certainty to form a highly valid opinion. Just like I think Juninho's our best ever player, I might be wrong, I could be way off, Camsell might be better or someone else who none of us have ever seen play etc. There might have been 10 guys playing in 1900 who were better, but I very much doubt it.
People aren't predicting an apocalypse, they're predicting that things will either get worse or they will not improve (growth), as fast as they would in the EU. All logic and studies back this line of thought up, people repeat it as it's the most likely outcome.
You've got an opinion that everything will be fine, or "it won't be that bad" or whatever, but you don't know that, and there's a lot less "certainty" to what you're saying. Just because there are two choices, doesn't mean the probability of each being good/ bad is equal, it's far from the case.
I didn't mean the industry was "non essential" from the point of the staff, and you know I didn't, don't try and twist it. I clearly wrote after that it was non-essential from the point of where peoples income gets spent. I meant "non essential" as in hospitality is one of the last places money goes, when money is tight, or just in general. So if people have £1,000, they might spend £400 on the mortgage, £200 on the car, and £200 on the kids, the £200 left might go to hospitality, pubs, restaurants, hotels etc. If that £1,000 gets cut to £800 people don't not pay the mortgage and go out to a restaurant instead, or at least they shouldn't.
The industry could also become less essential to business, if business starts failing, or they cut down travel budgets/ time. People going away on business etc, zoom and teams have proven people don't need to drive 200 miles and stay in a hotel to go to a meeting, when they can do 10 a day from their home/ office, and achieve 95% of the meetings worth (in some cases).