Coronavirus good news thread

bear66

Well-known member
I think London probably did. Ditto some parts of the West Midlands.
Some localised areas may well have done. I don't think such any major area had as high a death rate as Bergamo though. 5300 per million population. Not an exact comparison, but New York state had 1500 per million population.

Newham had the highest death rate of any borough in the UK - 1400 per million. Bergamo was something else.
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
Probably not the same in terms of deaths but I suspect London had a similar infection rate (remember those packed tubes). Les people dying possibly due to demographic differences ... and many of London's deaths were going on invisibly in care homes (as opposed to in the family homes of Northern Italy).
 

bear66

Well-known member
Probably not the same in terms of deaths but I suspect London had a similar infection rate (remember those packed tubes). Les people dying possibly due to demographic differences ... and many of London's deaths were going on invisibly in care homes (as opposed to in the family homes of Northern Italy).
Just working through those figures. The death rate of those infected (50% of the population) was 1.1%. That seems to be similar to the UK based on the antibody studies (6.7% infected).
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
Just working through those figures. The death rate of those infected (50% of the population) was 1.1%. That seems to be similar to the UK based on the antibody studies (6.7% infected).
Well, I think in Bergamo they have antibodies in 57% of the population. Of course, all those that died are no longer in that sample. Plus, you have younger people who deal with it innately, so the figure is likely to be less than that 1%.

Going slightly off on a tangent, it seems that in the countries where Covid spead widely throughout the popualtion, the % of the whole population to succumb is going to be in the region of 0.05%. This might change if there is a second wave in those countries of course.
 

bear66

Well-known member
Well, I think in Bergamo they have antibodies in 57% of the population. Of course, all those that died are no longer in that sample. Plus, you have younger people who deal with it innately, so the figure is likely to be less than that 1%.

Going slightly off on a tangent, it seems that in the countries where Covid spead widely throughout the popualtion, the % of the whole population to succumb is going to be in the region of 0.05%. This might change if there is a second wave in those countries of course.
The figure I used was just Covid-19 deaths in March. This was their worst month but there were further deaths in April.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I wonder if this latest news might chill some people out.
She's backed down now
The World Health Organization’s technical lead for Covid-19, to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally, has clarified comments she made about the transmission of the coronavirus, saying that the the amount of transmission from people with no symptoms is unknown.
 

Liamo

Active member
And nobody believes the backing down.
I'm not sure why. It did seem on looking at her full remarks, that it wasn't based on much. She said that:
“We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing”
"A number of reports" doesn't strike me as a very solid scientific basis to make the statement she originally did.

As articles about this point out, there were a number of issues with her characterisation of the matter. As one infectious disease specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch put it:
"... there are key discrepancies between people who have no symptoms, those who are presymptomatic and those who are subclinical with less severe symptoms, which can make studying the true amount of asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 extremely challenging.
"We still don't understand the role of people who have no symptoms the entire time [they're infected] versus people that have very, very mild symptoms that are misclassified as having no symptoms, versus people that have no symptoms for the first few days and then go on to develop them," he said.
"So, when we heard the WHO say that people without symptoms rarely transmit this infection, an eyebrow went up, because we certainly know that there are different types of people without symptoms and it's a little more complicated than what they had reported."
WHO backtracks on asymptomatic spread claim
 

hopesoboro

Well-known member
I'm not sure why. It did seem on looking at her full remarks, that it wasn't based on much. She said that:


"A number of reports" doesn't strike me as a very solid scientific basis to make the statement she originally did.

As articles about this point out, there were a number of issues with her characterisation of the matter. As one infectious disease specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch put it:


WHO backtracks on asymptomatic spread claim
We don't like WHO do we!?
 

Liamo

Active member
We don't like WHO do we!?
Well, I don't know about anyone else but I have a lot of time for the WHO. I think they do a lot of good work and get a bunch of unfair criticism.

In this case, one member of the WHO, in a relatively long press conference when answering a number of different question, may have overstated the case for the rarity of asymptomatic transmission. When this was pointed out to her, she issued a clarification, saying that:
asymptomatic spread is a “really complex question” and much is still unknown. “We don’t actually have that answer yet,” she said.
As she also stated, she wasn't giving the official position of the WHO in her earlier remarks, she was just:
responding to a question at the press conference [and] was referring to a small subset of studies.
 

hopesoboro

Well-known member
Well, I don't know about anyone else but I have a lot of time for the WHO. I think they do a lot of good work and get a bunch of unfair criticism.

In this case, one member of the WHO, in a relatively long press conference when answering a number of different question, may have overstated the case for the rarity of asymptomatic transmission. When this was pointed out to her, she issued a clarification, saying that:


As she also stated, she wasn't giving the official position of the WHO in her earlier remarks, she was just:
Good lad!
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
My missus has been working in 3 different assisted living care homes since March and not one single case of covid-19 on any of them.
Edit may I add that one of the homes she has been working in has had 2 people in and out of hospital for different reasons since this all kicked off too. Both negative when tested.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
Screenshot_20200611-190034.png

Great news. Also of those 24 deaths, 19 were in ONE care home. A investigation has apparently already being launched as to how and why that was allowed to happen.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
Should be TT racing there this week, with the Senior TT today. Will be unusually quiet there this week with no visitors allowed.
It's a beautiful part of the world. We've tossed up wether we move to Spain or move there when the kids are grown up and have fled the nest.
It's always fascinated me.
 
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