Corona virus data analysis. A fascinating read.

FabioPorkpie said:
It’s a good thread this. Lots of polite, respectful debate and good ideas, from people with different points of view. How refreshing, compared to the old board. Well done chaps 👍
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Compare it to the fruit and veg thread. They're prefacing every post with how the person with the opposite viewpoint is a moron. I think rather than being an old board/new board thing is that people are aware of the fallibility of their own viewpoint in this matter. It's not an issue we can fit into our pre existing set of viewpoints and so people are happy to take the opinions of others on board and modify their own position based on evidence.
 
Meanwhile I know many businesses are basically saying we've planned to the end of April and if we aren't out of this version of lockdown then it's going to be cost cutting or end of business.

We honestly have to think exit strategy and I'm sorry but professor Ferguson is just not the person to advise on that. He's been wrong so many times before and he's even been wrong with this pandemic.
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
Compare it to the fruit and veg thread. They're prefacing every post with how the person with the opposite viewpoint is a moron. I think rather than being an old board/new board thing is that people are aware of the fallibility of their own viewpoint in this matter. It's not an issue we can fit into our pre existing set of viewpoints and so people are happy to take the opinions of others on board and modify their own position based on evidence.
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It’s not that complex for me. I’ve utilised the ignore button for a couple of people and that’s what has made my experience on this board so much better. When threads descend into arguing, it’s usually down to one or two people.
 
RS

The guy in the article that thread is about says fatality rate of 4.5 people per 10,000 people (if my maths is correct).

I don't know if he is right.

If he is right we should expect about 180 deaths in South Tees area across the life of the virus he says 75 days, although lock down extensions could increase the number of days of the life of the virus. I assume 400,000 population in South Tees area and average age/class profile which may be wrong. If we assume the life of the virus in the UK was about 5th February onwards the 75 day period is until April 22nd. I picked 5th Feb because it was 28 days before the first UK death. It could be a later say a 2 week window which we open up a window of 22nd April to 6th May for the end of the virus based on his analysis.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Meanwhile I know many businesses are basically saying we've planned to the end of April and if we aren't out of this version of lockdown then it's going to be cost cutting or end of business.

We honestly have to think exit strategy and I'm sorry but professor Ferguson is just not the person to advise on that. He's been wrong so many times before and he's even been wrong with this pandemic.
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Exactly. Ferguson is the same advisor who during the beginning of the swine flu 'epidemic' (total of 138 UK deaths) put together an advisory paper stating we should shut all the schools down for a prolonged period of time, and at the start of the current pandemic warned we could see 500k deaths in the UK alone. He should not be the leading voice on the UK's lockdown decision - his reasoning always seems to be absolute worst case scenario.
 
Another 3 weeks then they will have no choice but to start opening up the economy again.
Italy is seeing rumblings of social unrest in isolated areas, yes they've been on lockdown longer but they as a culture and a people are a hell of a lot more chilled out than the British public.
This tied in with the fact that the government won't even give a hint of how lockdown will end means even they don't know how they are going to contain millions of people getting on after they announce a relaxation in the rules.
 
By saying only a small percentage have had the virus and we need a minimum 60% infection rate for herd immunity they have trapped themselves into lock down for many months to come (I will start to look like those guys left on a desert island for 5 years)

I think the pressure will build up on the UK Government as other European countries come out of lock down over the next 2 weeks.

Failure to do anything like sufficient testing and poor death recording is also making their decision making very difficult.

A big concern is that the UK death rate is running at 6000 a week above what is normal from previous years, so people are dying as a consequence and/or the CV-19 deaths are under reported.
 
RandySavage said:
Another 3 weeks then they will have no choice but to start opening up the economy again.
Italy is seeing rumblings of social unrest in isolated areas, yes they've been on lockdown longer but they as a culture and a people are a hell of a lot more chilled out than the British public.
This tied in with the fact that the government won't even give a hint of how lockdown will end means even they don't know how they are going to contain millions of people getting on after they announce a relaxation in the rules.
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RS - Italy has lifted some restrictions and some small shops have just opened up that were closed - Italians are not particularly chilled out in my opinion when they get angry they are much more vocal and animated than the British. They are about 13 days ahead of us with the virus.
 
It's hard not to get emotional when talking about deaths but I believe it was 6000 excess deaths in 2 weeks sir and prior to those figures we had less deaths for the year than the previous 5. Fingers crossed it comes down in the next set a week and a half from now.

It's worth noting a sad fact of lockdown is that people ar dying as an actual result of it too.
 
Redwurzel said:
RS - Italy has lifted some restrictions and some small shops have just opened up that were closed - Italians are not particularly chilled out in my opinion when they get angry they are much more vocal and animated than the British. They are about 13 days ahead of us with the virus.
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I know they aren't chilled per say but a lot more than us.
 
The government have failed on all levels of this crisis - take the testing target of 100k a day by the end of the month, it’s pure fantasy, they haven’t a hope of achieving it. We’re 12 days from the end of April and they’re only doing about a fifth of that target per day now


🐔
 
Redwurzel said:
Lots of people seem to assume we have to have an infection rate of 60-100%! before the virus is finished.
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The following quote is from Webmd.com - it suggests that the level of infection for herd immunity is based on the R0 value, or the number of people each person infects. If this explanation is correct, herd immunity for Covid-19 is between 50% and 75%. I think the CMO was using a value of 2.6 which would imply herd immunity at 62% of the population.

"When does a community reach herd immunity? It depends on the reproduction number, or R0. The R0 tells you the average number of people that a single person with the virus can infect if those people aren’t already immune. The higher the R0, the more people need to be resistant to reach herd immunity.

Researchers think that the R0 for COVID-19 is between 2 and 3. This means that one person can infect two to three other people. It also means 50% to 67% of the population would need to be resistant before herd immunity kicks in and the infection rates start to go down."
 
Alvez_48 said:
It's hard not to get emotional when talking about deaths but I believe it was 6000 excess deaths in 2 weeks sir and prior to those figures we had less deaths for the year than the previous 5. Fingers crossed it comes down in the next set a week and a half from now.

It's worth noting a sad fact of lockdown is that people ar dying as an actual result of it too.
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It was 6,082 more deaths in one week than is the average. It was also the deadliest week, with 16,387 deaths, since the ONS started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.

Perhaps most concerning is the fact that, of these 6,082 additional deaths, 'only' 3,475 had Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificates. That means that there are 2,607 excess deaths which could only be explained by either an under-reporting of the actual number of Covid-related deaths or that there has been a sudden spike in other causes of death (or both). Neither of those explanations would be particularly satisfactory.

ONS data on registered deaths is published weekly and the next set is due on Tuesday. I'm expecting it to be grim reading.
 
Point of order, we will not reach herd immunity. There is no such thing with any coronavirus. There is herd resistance, which means that if you catch it again, you will likely show less symptoms/handle it better. All talk of a vaccine is likely to be fantasy too, as we don't have one for any other coronaviruses and they mutate regularly in any case.

We need large scale, randomised serological testing for antibodies ASAP. There seems to be no mention of this.
Unsurprisingly, Sweden are planning it already. The University of Umea are on the case.
 
borolad259 said:
Point of order, we will not reach herd immunity. There is no such thing with any coronavirus. There is herd resistance, which means that if you catch it again, you will likely show less symptoms/handle it better. All talk of a vaccine is likely to be fantasy too, as we don't have one for any other coronaviruses and they mutate regularly in any case.

We need large scale, randomised serological testing for antibodies ASAP. There seems to be no mention of this.
Unsurprisingly, Sweden are planning it already. The University of Umea are on the case.
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The CMO said how difficult it was to develop an antibody test on Wednesday.
 
Billy Horner said:
It was 6,082 more deaths in one week than is the average. It was also the deadliest week, with 16,387 deaths, since the ONS started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.

Perhaps most concerning is the fact that, of these 6,082 additional deaths, 'only' 3,475 had Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificates. That means that there are 2,607 excess deaths which could only be explained by either an under-reporting of the actual number of Covid-related deaths or that there has been a sudden spike in other causes of death (or both). Neither of those explanations would be particularly satisfactory.

ONS data on registered deaths is published weekly and the next set is due on Tuesday. I'm expecting it to be grim reading.
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The ONS figures show the number of respiratory deaths with no covid-19 mention. If it's lower than expected, Covid-19 may be being over reported, if higher it may be underreporting. There were about 500 higher cases than the previous 6 weeks, which had been steady at about 1500 cases a week.
 
RandySavage said:
Another 3 weeks then they will have no choice but to start opening up the economy again.
Italy is seeing rumblings of social unrest in isolated areas, yes they've been on lockdown longer but they as a culture and a people are a hell of a lot more chilled out than the British public.
This tied in with the fact that the government won't even give a hint of how lockdown will end means even they don't know how they are going to contain millions of people getting on after they announce a relaxation in the rules.
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Agree with you there mate (apart from the bit about Italians being more chilled than the British).
 
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