Controversial Covid post

Lifelonfaninexile said:
were we all aware that SAGE is made up of 100 "advisers"
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No, it's 20 isn't it?

And as they are expected to advise on anything from a nuclear leak to a pandemic I would be surprised if there was a predominance of Virologists (of which in any case I doubt that the country has or needs more than a handful?) the other thing to note is this is a scientific panel not a political panel, the gathered scientists seek to achieve a consensus of the best way forward. This was why the attendance of Dominic Cummings at some of their meetings was controversial as it could have been seen as an attempt to influence their decision.
 
1finny said:
What do you make of the assertion that for any ‘new’ Covid/SARS type virus there will be 30% of the population immune due to previous Covid type colds which are constantly around?
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Not looked into that, but if there was immunity then I imagine it would have shown up to one, and it would have been about a billion times easier to make a vaccine, or there would already be a vaccine/ as part of the flu jab.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Which is kind of Yeadon’s point. This currently is a ripple from the tail end of the initial outbreak as we move indoors and enter the normal seasonal respiratory virus season, and the virus finds a bit of wiggle room through communities that weren’t perhaps as significantly exposed during the initial outbreak back in Easter.
Time will tell whether he is right or not.
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Is what's happening in Lombardy a ripple or a second wave?
Link
 
the_smog_chorus said:
Another one wanting to derail the topic, I had answered that question but you crack on being sarcastic.
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I’m sorry but you really haven’t answered that question at all.

The claim made by Yeadon, and supported by you in this thread, is that 30% of the population had an existing immunity from Covid-19. What you were being asked for was to provide some evidence to substantiate such a claim. Posting pie charts or telling people to “go and listen to the podcast” doesn’t count as evidence I’m afraid.

If you can point us to some ACTUAL EVIDENCE that backs up this claim, then we’d all be prepared to look at it. I’d imagine this should be relatively easy to do, as I’m sure that Yeadon will have referenced all his evidence to enable such scrutiny...
 
the_smog_chorus said:
So using that data and that source we've normalised - the point Dr Yeadon is making?
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It was normal for those weeks, in the middle of summer, when it was contained quite well, but those weeks didn't go negative and not enough to claw back any of that massive peak, So we're still on 55k excess, which is more like 60k or whatever, after the -5k head start we had.

The big line at the bottom is the weekly excess, it would need a -55k spike to get us back to no excess, that's not happening, not as we've not had a winter with covid yet, we've had April-October, months when people are outside a lot, we've got 55k excess in the bank with the coldest November to March to come, sounds like we're doing great....not.
 
RandySavage said:
So are you saying that the country is basically still in one wave?
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That was argued when we came out of lockdown - we were coming out too soon so wave one would continue and cases would rise. I'm not sure what the qualifying criteria for a wave ending and a new one beginning is, but whatever it is it's safe to say that infections, deaths and hospital admissions are increasing so that might suggest a resurgence of the virus.
 
bear66 said:
Is what's happening in Lombardy a ripple or a second wave?
Link
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Yep, good point. Those numbers are alarming. Will be interesting to see how it plays out and whether we get the same in London. Fingers crossed that doesn’t happen and Lombardy cases stabilise and drop, or don’t translate into too many hospitalisations/deaths.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Yep, good point. Those numbers are alarming. Will be interesting to see how it plays out and whether we get the same in London. Fingers crossed that doesn’t happen and Lombardy cases stabilise and drop, or don’t translate into too many hospitalisations/deaths.
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Rome and the (impoverished) South is the opposite in that they weren't hit so badly and, although cases are rising, not like the North / South here. There's a lot of oddities and generalisations are difficult to establish.
 
I've not got passed 22 minutes yet, now he's on about Sweden, that beacon of nordic success :rolleyes:

Oh wait, no, the nordic success is any of Norway, Finland and Denmark isn't it. I thought the aim was to have less death?

Sweden seems to be having a bit of an increase in cases now too, so that boots their "herd immunity" into touch too.
 
the_smog_chorus said:
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Jesus christ...."the pandemic is over"? Who in their right mind would say that?

The northern hemisphere (the most populated hemisphere, as in 90% of the population) hasn't even really had this pandemic during any colder months/ winter of this yet, we've had it for mainly April - October.

Who would declare a pandemic over, with November to March to come?

Sage suppositions ..... no, the world's suppositions

Children <10? Do they not catch it like? Do they not often get picked up by old grannies and grandads?

Prior immunity? How, from what? Maybe he should tell the vaccine guys that there should already be a flu jab for it on the shelf?

32% infected, how? The antibody study from July had 6%, London may be up to 17%, being optimistic.
 
Billy Horner said:
I’m sorry but you really haven’t answered that question at all.

The claim made by Yeadon, and supported by you in this thread, is that 30% of the population had an existing immunity from Covid-19. What you were being asked for was to provide some evidence to substantiate such a claim. Posting pie charts or telling people to “go and listen to the podcast” doesn’t count as evidence I’m afraid.

If you can point us to some ACTUAL EVIDENCE that backs up this claim, then we’d all be prepared to look at it. I’d imagine this should be relatively easy to do, as I’m sure that Yeadon will have referenced all his evidence to enable such scrutiny...
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Yeadon quotes Ivan Roitt Ref the 30% (plus other studies) and the Karolinska Institute.
Roitt’s ’Essential Immunology’ is the book of choice for immunology students worldwide (according to the blurb).
He was head of Immunology at University College London until 1992 after graduating from Oxford.

Just passing on the info - not surprisingly I’ve never heard of either of them
 
25 minutes in, it's getting worse this.
Now apparently it doesn't do waves.......yet he want's to ignore Spanish flu and wants to compare covid to other diseases which haven't had anything like the same transmissibility, being able to bridge seasons and lockdowns etc.
He might want to check out how well water droplets dry up in summer and how much UV there is in summer v winter, and what happens when you lock down in dry/ warm months and then let everyone out in cold/ wet months.

The only way we're not in a second wave now (the UK) is if the first wave never ended, but seeing as we got down from 1000 deaths per day to about 10, then it's fair to say we are in second wave, as we're pretty much at 200 deaths per day, with winter to come.

This guy just seems really bitter, like he's been kept out the loop.
 
Statto1 said:
Jesus christ...."the pandemic is over"? Who in their right mind would say that?

The northern hemisphere (the most populated hemisphere, as in 90% of the population) hasn't even really had this pandemic during any colder months/ winter of this yet, we've had it for mainly April - October.
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Good point. So in theory, things should get far worse now then, as we are heading into colder months and the virus is more robust and lives longer in the colder months. Time will tell, and if things don’t get worse than during the Easter peak, then maybe more than the stated 7,8,9% have been exposed already.

Statto1 said:
Sage suppositions ..... no, the world's suppositions
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I agree.
Statto1 said:
Prior immunity? How, from what? Maybe he should tell the vaccine guys that there should already be a flu jab for it on the shelf?
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. Cross immunity. Read this -

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih...ne-cells-common-cold-may-recognize-sars-cov-2
Statto1 said:
32% infected, how? The antibody study from July had 6%, London may be up to 17%, being optimistic.
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Again, antibody studies don’t tell the whole story. Please see my previous post to you about this.
 
1finny said:
Yeadon quotes Ivan Roitt Ref the 30% (plus other studies) and the Karolinska Institute.
Roitt’s ’Essential Immunology’ is the book of choice for immunology students worldwide (according to the blurb).
He was head of Immunology at University College London until 1992 after graduating from Oxford.

Just passing on the info - not surprisingly I’ve never heard of either of them
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Roitt hasn't carried out any immunology coronavirus studies.
 
If you’ve read Roitt’s stuff and found there is nothing in there suggesting that 30% can be immune to a new virus that’s fine by me.

I was just passing on the info and asking if anyone had a view
 
1finny said:
If you’ve read Roitt’s stuff and found there is nothing in there suggesting that 30% can be immune to a new virus that’s fine by me.

I was just passing on the info and asking if anyone had a view
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Is there evidence to suggest that 30% of people could be immune from covid-19 or is just thesis based on other viruses

does Yeadon advocate trails to prove this point or does he think we can just assume it
 
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