Buy Gyokeres for any price?

Buy big vik

  • yes buy him.

    Votes: 52 30.8%
  • No mental price

    Votes: 117 69.2%

  • Total voters
    169
  • Poll closed .

Ash88

Well-known member
It isn't a necessity, but to increase the odds of success in any one given year you need to go on to find more proven players, but yes they will cost more.

It's 100% about the timing and size of the club.

Like I said in my prev post, you can throw money at almost anything outside of football too to increase your odds. Doesn't mean you should.

If you buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1, you increase your odds.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
If you're a crap team, not likely to get promotion and don't have any money then you have to (should) take risks on lower level/ cheaper players. Then you have to be excellent at picking them out, and then you also need to convince them to come to you, and not the other 10-20 interested teams. This should be us in some seasons, but shouldn't be in others. This isn't a season where it should.

There may be the odd one or two who are almost proven in league one, but they're going for 5m plus, and we would have little chance of attracting them to the North East. The chance of success needs to be more than three times that of someone for 15m (and the 15m player has a chance of being much better than this too), so you would need to buy three of them, which is spending the same money. You can only play one at any given time, so you end up backing up one which pays off, with two who will be terrible, not good enough for the squad. We don't need backup strikers, or second choices, we already have four of them, we need someone who is going to come in and be the number one pick, and play every week.

Does anyone seriously think Gyokeres wouldn't get 17 or more goals for us, in our current side, current style, current manager, and also contribute a lot to other players?

Does anyone think overall that Gyokeres couldn't score at a higher rate than Britt or Rhodes for us, this year, and offer far more linking up with other players?


Every year there's ~150 strikers in squads for Championship teams, last year 7 players scored 17, only 1 in 20 is making the cut, year before it was 5 (1 in 30), year before 6 (1 in 25).

Look at the teams who went up automatically last year, 1 & 2, they had Mitrovic and Solanke, combined purchase price of 45m. Grant was on the +17 list he was about 15m. The other three were Weimann, Piroe and Diaz, none of them playing for side above us, suggesting they were less likely to go up, and hence did not need to buy a ready made striker. Weimann took 3 years to come good, Piroe came good first year for 2m, good find. Diaz 7m, took 4 years to come good.

20/21, top of the list Toney (5m, 10m with addons) and there was zero chance of getting him up here, the same chance we had of getting Maja from league 1, who then flopped ever since. Armstrong scored 1 in 2 in league one, came good in third season, we don't have that time. Pukki (already proven, they had him a few years, will cover that later)

19/20 Mitrovic (25m), Watkins 2m came good in third season, Grabban £6m (always got goals, older, think we tried to sign but wouldn't come here), Grant 15m, Wells 5m (think we tried to sign, wouldn't come here)

18/19 Pukki free transfer as he was out of contract, this doesn't mean he was a bad player, or much of a risk, lots of competition to get him though, fair play to Norwich on that one, Muapay 2m came good in second season, Abraham (prem loan, already proven in 16/17), gayle (prem loan, already proven in 16/17)

Most of those are already proven players, expensive players or players who did not come good in their first or second year.

The point is if we think the side has a great chance of promotion this year, then we don't have time to wait for an investment to pay off, and it would be very risky to expect an unproven player to pay off. If it doesn't pay off this year then next year we will likely be doing it without Jones, Giles, Steffen, Fry, Howson, Wilder etc.

As above, to even get a cheap signing to make the list, they're normally players in the value range of 2-7m, and a lot of the time they take years to come good. The very obvious prospects we have probably been in for, like just about every other club, but we got none of them.

Getting a proven player on loan from the prem is fine (if we can get one, an they want to come), but likely to be on loan, or expensive.

As for cheaper players, in the last few years we've had: Sporar, Balogun, Connoly, Ikpeazu, Watmore, Akpom, Fletcher, Nmecha, Gestede all on loan or costing <7m. None of them really proven, none of them worked (enough to start every game in a top 3 side).

Then we've had Bamford, good buy at 5.5m (sold for 9m?) but we know he was relatively proven (albeit an outcast), still only got 11 goals though (albeit played out of position a lot).
Assombalonga 15m, proven championship buy, scored at a rate of 1 in 2 for the games he started (for us) for two years, then we let him run his contract down.
Rhodes 10m (sold for 10m), proven championship buy, scored at a rate of 1 in 2 (for us) in the games he started, in the negative Karanka team.
Braithwaite (£9m), he was a good player, highly rated and good enough for La Liga/ Barcelona seemingly, but not really a striker and obviously got fed up with Monk, we got more than half of our money back.

Gees, the best striker we've had in recent times was Stuani, and he was cheap, but even when he was here we didn't even realise he was a striker. Couldn't even see what was right in front of us.

Those four are the only ones who really worked or could have worked, and none of them were anywhere near free, two of them we got at least our money back. We messed up the Assombalonga situation, he wasn't the problem initially, we were.
 
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Andy_W

Well-known member
Like I said in my prev post, you can throw money at almost anything outside of football too to increase your odds. Doesn't mean you should.

If you buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1, you increase your odds.

The point is do you think if we got a 20 goal striker (maybe even 17), is this our best opportunity than any of the previous 5 years? I do, by a long way. This massively effects how you should look at the current situation, the chance of getting the premiership reward is far higher this year, than any recent year. This is why we need to be taking less chance with who we buy.

We don't need second choice strikers, we need someone who will be first choice and play every game, who will get goals and who is also a good player. We also need a return this year, not in 2-3 years time. I expect if we don't go up this year we will have a worse side, worse manager, less crativity and back to playing lump ball or defensive.

The previous cheap purchases of Watmore and Akpom aren't going to come in and play every game and get 20 goals, nor is Coburn, it's just not going to happen. Forss might have a chance, but he wasn't free, and hasn't been signed to be the number 1, otherwise we wouldn't be looking for a number 1.

We could rotate 5 strikers and hope to get 40 goals between them and hope that works (it won't be enough for auto promotion), but I think we need to be looking at 20 from one guy, and 30 from the rest, to take it to the next level.

I 100% understand yours and everyone's points, but I don't think most of you are placing enough value on what we could create this year, and what damage we could do with a top striker. I think you're thinking with the same mentality as the last few years, but I think the situation has changed, and our bank balance/ FFP situation definitely has.

If we had the side at the beginning of last year or the years earlier, with Warnock, or under Pulis or Woodgate I wouldn't think 15m on a striker was a good idea, as we couldn't likely supply them, and the rest of the side is not up to the task for top 3. It was edging there though, so we did have time to get in some cheap strikers and hope they paid off in 2-3 years time, but we didn't do it, they all failed (not good enough for top 3 anyway).

I just think with having Giles and Jones, and being solid everywhere else we have a big chance, and we need a big player, who will do it this year, not in the next three. If we fail and go back to looking like a scraping play offs side, then I'll change my mind and say we probably don't need to spend as much, as we're going to have time to let players develop, and if we get lucky, great.

The above is all under the assumption that we think McGree can step up, and that there would be some funds remaining for other backups, or we can take risks on cheaper players (as they would be backups).
 
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Ash88

Well-known member
The problem is... All those questions and statements with comparisons to our old strikers are with the power of hindsight.

I remember when everyone was really excited we'd signed Alves after he scored 30-35 goals in the Dutch league....

I can imagine there was some excitement before we signed Assombalonga too...

It's very easy to say "Gyokores will be better than Assombalonga", when you've already seen that Assombalonga didn't live up to the hype.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
Every year there's ~150 strikers in squads for Championship teams, last year 7 players scored 17, only 1 in 20 is making the cut, year before it was 5 (1 in 30), year before 6 (1 in 25).
My point is that 13 different championship clubs have been able to find that 1 in 20 / 1 in 30 / whatever it is, in the last 10 years, with £2m or less.
We're supposed to be a "top championship club". We don't need any scouts or a recruitment team to pay whatever Coventry want us to pay for Gyokores.

Look at the teams who went up automatically last year, 1 & 2, they had Mitrovic and Solanke, combined purchase price of 45m. Grant was on the +17 list he was about 15m.
All three of those were signed by PL clubs with £100m+ promotion money.

The other three were Weimann, Piroe and Diaz, none of them playing for side above us, suggesting they were less likely to go up, and hence did not need to buy a ready made striker. Weimann took 3 years to come good, Piroe came good first year for 2m, good find. Diaz 7m, took 4 years to come good.
It doesn't matter how many years it took for them to come good. We've spent the majority of the last decade in the championship...
We've had time, but we keep wasting it signing strikers for ridiculous fees and giving them even more ridiculous wages.

The point is if we think the side has a great chance of promotion this year, then we don't have time to wait for an investment to pay off, and it would be very risky to expect an unproven player to pay off. If it doesn't pay off this year then next year we will likely be doing it without Jones, Giles, Steffen, Fry, Howson, Wilder etc.
Can't you see that is what we do every time?...
It was "this year" with Strachen so we let him splash the cash, then we had to force Mowbray to sell and cut the wage bill...
It was "this year" with Monk so we let him splash the cash, then we had to force Pulis to sell and cut the wage bill...
I like Wilder, but if we do spend and it fails (again), we're back in the cycle of spending another 2-3 years rebuilding in the championship...

The only way to come out of the cycle is to buy smarter. Paying £15m for Gyokores isn't smart.

As above, to even get a cheap signing to make the list, they're normally players in the value range of 2-7m, and a lot of the time they take years to come good. The very obvious prospects we have probably been in for, like just about every other club, but we got none of them.
Not true. The median price for a 20 goal striker in the past 10 years in £1.7 million.

Those four are the only ones who really worked or could have worked, and none of them were anywhere near free, two of them we got at least our money back. We messed up the Assombalonga situation, he wasn't the problem initially, we were.
But they didn't work.... Britt cost us over £20 million in fees and wages. We might have got our money back for Rhodes, but he still cost us £2-3m in wages.
Braithwaite was only here permanently for 1 season, I think he started less than 20 games that season? and we lost another £5 million in fees and wages...
We blew another £8m on Gestede. We can go back even earlier for the £6m+ we lost on Alves too.
 

indeedido

Well-known member
The problem is... All those questions and statements with comparisons to our old strikers are with the power of hindsight.

I remember when everyone was really excited we'd signed Alves after he scored 30-35 goals in the Dutch league....

I can imagine there was some excitement before we signed Assombalonga too...

It's very easy to say "Gyokores will be better than Assombalonga", when you've already seen that Assombalonga didn't live up to the hype.
Christ Ash, there is risk in EVERY signing.
All analysis is retrospective by definition, it is with hindsight, including yours.

AndyW is spot on. Things are very different right now, for the first time in years.

1. The wage bill has been massively reduced.
2. Amortisation is now minute, there is only McGree and odds that will still have any book value at all.
3. Revenue is increased, therefore the operating loss (that is a fact of life outside the PL) is hugely reduced.
4. The Club has a nucleus of players to form a top end squad.
5. There are a lot of players who could be sold for fees if required that would represent 100% profit now for MFC (Jones, Fry, McNair, Dijksteel, Bola, Coburn) they are not trapped financially as they have been.
6. The league looks weaker than it has for a very long time.
7. The FFP position is very sound at present up to 2021-22 season.
8. The Club have just received an immediate £22.5m Profit on Disposal of Player Registrations in this season 2022-23, which will be reflected in each of the next 3 seasons from a FFP perspective.
9. The Club have a manager who they worked hard to attract, who has experience of doing exactly what is required.
10. The fan base is more engaged than since the promotion season in 2015-16.

These are all key elements and they are all aligned.
Next season, all of those variables will change.
The idea of slowly building in this league is a joke given the short term nature of players being at the same club.
By the time a group of "prospects" start to deliver, the experienced core you have has moved on, as have finances, the manager, the level of competition, the fan mood etc.

I am not saying we will not have to be more cautious at other times when they don't have a £22.5m windfall.
I am not saying we should spend money we can't.

I am saying we should seize the opportunity when it is there and it most certainly is right now.
It was there in 2016 and the Club made a complete mess of it. They under-invested and recruited horrendously.
Don't make the same mistake again with this great opportunity.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
The problem is... All those questions and statements with comparisons to our old strikers are with the power of hindsight.

I remember when everyone was really excited we'd signed Alves after he scored 30-35 goals in the Dutch league....

I can imagine there was some excitement before we signed Assombalonga too...

It's very easy to say "Gyokores will be better than Assombalonga", when you've already seen that Assombalonga didn't live up to the hype.
Not really, it's a fact that Assombalonga was scoring 1 in 2 before he came, same with Rhodes, I was more than happy when we signed both, and they both scored ~1 in 2 when they got here, despite having poor managers or playing defensive styles etc. Overall I was happy with the purchases, at the time and two seasons later. We handled the Assombalonga situation poorly in is third season, think he'd had enough by then, I'd have been the same with Woody in charge, most of the good players were poor that year. Assombalong and Rhodes are just goalscorers though, and that's it, I think Gyokeres has a lot more to his game (as does anyone who's watched him).

Everyone knew Gestede was a donkey, having had two years of doing nothing in the prem and then champo, and us being in the prem! 6m on him wasn't ludicrous though, small fee for a prem team.

Alves came from the Dutch league, it's similar standard to the championship, it's a tall order expecting someone to come from there and do it in the prem. 12m in the prem is like 6m in the champo now I suppose. He did great first year, when our team was ok.
Problem then was after that first season we didn't strengthen elsewhere (and sold Woody, Shwarzer, Rochemback, Mendieta, Yakubu etc), so he had a worse team/ supply. We tried to buy on the cheap and bought Emnes, Digard and Hoyte, none of them good enough for the prem. We still got 7m back on Alves.

I've got nothing against Assombalonga to be honest, he came in, did the job I expected for two years, when he started, and did that under Monk and Pulis, which isn't bad going. I don't blame him for getting 11 in 27 starts under Woody in his third season, then he only had a year left so was never going to sign another contract after us finishing 17th. Wasn't worth another contract after his 4th year either.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
All of those 10 points you've just made have been made possible by smart transfer business.

Dijksteel (2m) from league 1 - probably one of the best in the league now?
Bola (600k) from league 1 - definitely worth the fee.
Paddy (5m) and Crooks (1m) signed from relegated championship teams - both very important for the team.
Jones signed from non-league - best winger in the league.
Djed Spence signed for free after being released.... Just sold him for £15m

Why waste all the years of hard work and smart signings blowing it on another risky expensive, high wage striker? It makes no sense.
 

indeedido

Well-known member
All of those 10 points you've just made have been made possible by smart transfer business.

Dijksteel (2m) from league 1 - probably one of the best in the league now?
Bola (600k) from league 1 - definitely worth the fee.
Paddy (5m) and Crooks (1m) signed from relegated championship teams - both very important for the team.
Jones signed from non-league - best winger in the league.
Djed Spence signed for free after being released.... Just sold him for £15m

Why waste all the years of hard work and smart signings blowing it on another risky expensive, high wage striker? It makes no sense.
Remarkable interpretation.
I am not saying waste the years, I am saying capitalise on them.
Circumstances will change while we dither.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
Remarkable interpretation.
I am not saying waste the years, I am saying capitalise on them.
Circumstances will change while we dither.
My overall point is we've done so well cherry picking players for every other position on the pitch...
and somehow, a lot of other teams in the league, have done well cherry picking strikers (Gyokores cost £1m)...

I know it's easier said than done, but I want "the next Gyokores" for £1m, I don't want the risk of buying the current Gyokores for 15.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
My point is that 13 different championship clubs have been able to find that 1 in 20 / 1 in 30 / whatever it is, in the last 10 years, with £2m or less.
We're supposed to be a "top championship club". We don't need any scouts or a recruitment team to pay whatever Coventry want us to pay for Gyokores.

All three of those were signed by PL clubs with £100m+ promotion money.

It doesn't matter how many years it took for them to come good. We've spent the majority of the last decade in the championship...
We've had time, but we keep wasting it signing strikers for ridiculous fees and giving them even more ridiculous wages.

Can't you see that is what we do every time?...
It was "this year" with Strachen so we let him splash the cash, then we had to force Mowbray to sell and cut the wage bill...
It was "this year" with Monk so we let him splash the cash, then we had to force Pulis to sell and cut the wage bill...
I like Wilder, but if we do spend and it fails (again), we're back in the cycle of spending another 2-3 years rebuilding in the championship...

The only way to come out of the cycle is to buy smarter. Paying £15m for Gyokores isn't smart.

Not true. The median price for a 20 goal striker in the past 10 years in £1.7 million.

But they didn't work.... Britt cost us over £20 million in fees and wages. We might have got our money back for Rhodes, but he still cost us £2-3m in wages.
Braithwaite was only here permanently for 1 season, I think he started less than 20 games that season? and we lost another £5 million in fees and wages...
We blew another £8m on Gestede. We can go back even earlier for the £6m+ we lost on Alves too.
Yes, and how much have those 13 clubs spent on players who didn't work out? How long did the players take to work out? The time to do that was a few years back (for strikers), not now. We've largely managed to do it for other positions after a lot of trial and error, some areas being stronger than others, this year we're missing one key piece, and a couple of minor pieces.
How much have the other 25 clubs which have been in this division spent on cheap players who didn't work out? We've done it loads of times, and have extremely limited success in attracting the good talent which is available relatively cheaply, and we, like every club is always trying to do that. It's always an ongoing thing for us, like many teams, but every now and then you're missing a major piece and if it's not there the rest may as well go in the bin.

Yes, good players, with high chance of success cost money. Our failure to get into the prem has cost us money. We've now largely balanced the books over the past few years and should have some cash, to plug that massive gaping hole.

The time to do it was 1,2,3 years ago, to blood through cheap strikers, and we have tried to do it, it's not worked in that position (it's worked in others). We missed out on other targets, and we always will when there's stiff competition as it's not simple to attract players to the North East. Most clubs have good strikers as they found theirs 1,2,3 years ago, we didn't so we're going to have to pay for that failure, and it will cost a premium to get something ready made, ready for top 3, which I think we can get, with a top striker.

I never said it was this year with Strachan, I couldn't even watch us when he was here.
I don't think the Monk signings and team were that bad, but he couldn't get a tune out of them (poor Manager), then Pulis took us in a different direction to try and make up for us missing out on that opportunity, which was fair enough. We gambled with the wrong manager, that's what cost us. It took a few years to get a relative tune out of Fletcher, but he was quite cheap and then we let him go for nothing, bad player management.

If we fail this year then we're waiting another 3 years anyway as we're going to lose a lot of talent, and it will be harder to attract other players when we look weaker.

You have to buy smart every year (I'm not saying don't do this), and hope those players come through, but when you have a big gaping hole it needs to be plugged and it's asking a lot for a £2m striker to come and do it, when literally every champo club is after the same thing. The thing is they're largely doing it, hoping for it to work in 1-3 years, we need to take advantage of now. Most teams have their number 1 striker, who was bought years ago, not many £2m strikers from this year will be on the top 10 goals list.

Wages are par for the course, and we've probably paid out too much on a lot of players, but 3 x 5m players would likely cost more in wages than Gyokeres. The Wage bill is low at the minute too.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
Christ Ash, there is risk in EVERY signing.
All analysis is retrospective by definition, it is with hindsight, including yours.

AndyW is spot on. Things are very different right now, for the first time in years.

1. The wage bill has been massively reduced.
2. Amortisation is now minute, there is only McGree and odds that will still have any book value at all.
3. Revenue is increased, therefore the operating loss (that is a fact of life outside the PL) is hugely reduced.
4. The Club has a nucleus of players to form a top end squad.
5. There are a lot of players who could be sold for fees if required that would represent 100% profit now for MFC (Jones, Fry, McNair, Dijksteel, Bola, Coburn) they are not trapped financially as they have been.
6. The league looks weaker than it has for a very long time.
7. The FFP position is very sound at present up to 2021-22 season.
8. The Club have just received an immediate £22.5m Profit on Disposal of Player Registrations in this season 2022-23, which will be reflected in each of the next 3 seasons from a FFP perspective.
9. The Club have a manager who they worked hard to attract, who has experience of doing exactly what is required.
10. The fan base is more engaged than since the promotion season in 2015-16.

These are all key elements and they are all aligned.
Next season, all of those variables will change.
The idea of slowly building in this league is a joke given the short term nature of players being at the same club.
By the time a group of "prospects" start to deliver, the experienced core you have has moved on, as have finances, the manager, the level of competition, the fan mood etc.

I am not saying we will not have to be more cautious at other times when they don't have a £22.5m windfall.
I am not saying we should spend money we can't.

I am saying we should seize the opportunity when it is there and it most certainly is right now.
It was there in 2016 and the Club made a complete mess of it. They under-invested and recruited horrendously.
Don't make the same mistake again with this great opportunity.
I'm glad you understand the numbers (clearly more than any of us on here), but more than that I'm glad you see the current opportunity we have. The potential reward here is massive, and our risk of paying a big price for a big player is low (this season, not saying it applied in the last 3).

The planets are aligned currently, and we've worked hard and spent time to get here and got a lot of it right, but we're missing one key thing, the sun. By next year everything will be out of whack again, and we could be almost starting from scratch again. Who is going to replace Giles, Jones, Howson, Steffan, Fry, Wilder next year, when they could all be gone? We couldn't expect many of them to still be here? We need these replacement players at the club already, based on the £2m player model, if they're going to take more than a year to come though. We ain't going to replace them with 5 x 2m signings in one year, that's for sure.

Most agree that nearly all boxes are ticked, and more so than any of the other previous 5 seasons, in the champo. Seems mad to risk all of that on some unproven player.
 

Bruce

Active member
I’m in the camp of that we just go and get him. Even if he’s the only striker we bring in.
I'm on the fence. What we need in rough priority order is:
1. Proven goal scorer at the Championship or equivalent level
2. Midfielder of at least the same standard as Crooks and Howson who can replace one or either
3. Left-footed centre-back who is better in that position than McNair
4 A striker who can play as part of a unit or 4-5
5 Another midfielder who can replace one or either of Crooks and Howson (or maybe McGree).

The only flexibility we have is that McNair could replace Crooks or Howson or could play at LCB if we can't find one. So, the bare minimum is two strikers and perm 2 from 2 midfielders and 1 LCB. This is assuming that Wilder feels Boyd Munce can replace McGree when needed but I suspect that he doesn't.

The club seem to have decided that Larsen is significantly cheaper than Gyokeres and would allow them better options in the remaining list. My feeling is that if we get Gyokeres it will be right at the end of the window because we're comfortably top 6, Coventry aren't and no Premier league clubs have come in for him. We probably can't do Gyokeres and Larsen (or Armstrong). Experience with players from the eredivisie is that it can be really difficult to assess how well players from there will do in the championship. Given the difficulties that Premier league clubs have been having in recruiting strikers, it is odd that no one seems to be pushing for Gyokeres; you would think a team like Southampton would suit him really well. My preferred squad at this point would be:
GKs: Steffen, Roberts, Daniels
CBs: Dijksteel, Lenihan, Fry, Greaves
Utility: McNair, Bola
wingbacks: Jones, Smith, Giles
CMs: Crooks, Howson, Choudhury, McGree, Hannibal, Boyd Munce
STs: Larsen, Armstrong, Forss, Akpom, Watmore

To be honest I would love Garner rather than Choudhury but that doesn't seem likely. Not sure we really need Hannibal as I doubt he would get much game time. I suspect Armstrong is not really an option in which case someone like Hoppe might be a decent left-field signing.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. It's all just opinion / hindsight, and I don't think we're even enquiring about Gyokores anymore anyway haha.

This is exactly the point I've been trying to make throughout this thread through...
We need these replacement players at the club already, based on the £2m player model, if they're going to take more than a year to come though. We ain't going to replace them with 5 x 2m signings in one year, that's for sure.
I understand you think it's too late for a striker this season, and I somewhat agree, but if we don't "do it now anyway", it's going to be too late for next season too...

We already know Howson only has 1 year left, he'll be 35 next season, and we have absolutely no cover. Matt Crooks only cost us 1m from Rotherham...

We should be throwing 500ks, 1ms, at the best young CDMs from league one... Bring two in, bench them and giving them a few mins or send them back out on loan...

If it fails we only lose £1-2m...

But instead, we won't do that, and if we don't get promoted... Howson's leaving anyway... We'll be stuck DESPERATE to sign someone, and we'll end up spending more money for what could be the same player.
 

Nano

Well-known member
Not true. The median price for a 20 goal striker in the past 10 years in £1.7 million.
This just doesn't make any sense. Why are you not understanding how the league works? All of the players capable of scoring 20 goals either leave this league or their clubs won't sell. They leave either by promotion or they get bought by a PL team. That means championship teams rarely get the chance to buy the best championship strikers which is why there are very few big money buys at the top of the list. However, the big money buys usually still end up on the list. Your analysis is focused on one single (incorrect) thing.

Let's break it down:
1. We want a striker that is going to get on the top scorer list.
2. The best predictor of getting on the top scorer list is already being on the top scorer list.
3. Buying strikers off that list is expensive.
4. Buying strikers that aren't on that list and expecting them to suddenly be good enough rarely ever works.
5. You can buy expensive and cheap players and hope they both make it. It's not either/or.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. It's all just opinion / hindsight, and I don't think we're even enquiring about Gyokores anymore anyway haha.

This is exactly the point I've been trying to make throughout this thread through...

I understand you think it's too late for a striker this season, and I somewhat agree, but if we don't "do it now anyway", it's going to be too late for next season too...

We already know Howson only has 1 year left, he'll be 35 next season, and we have absolutely no cover. Matt Crooks only cost us 1m from Rotherham...

We should be throwing 500ks, 1ms, at the best young CDMs from league one... Bring two in, bench them and giving them a few mins or send them back out on loan...

If it fails we only lose £1-2m...

But instead, we won't do that, and if we don't get promoted... Howson's leaving anyway... We'll be stuck DESPERATE to sign someone, and we'll end up spending more money for what could be the same player.
I don't think we disagree on most of the transfer policy, your thoughts on cheaper players are the same as mine, are certainly correct for times when we're rebuilding, refinancing, expecting mid table or maybe playoffs, or players who can pay off next year or the year after. My main point is the team is ready to be top two, if we get the right striker, who will be good on day 0. As I believe that, I think we need to buy with much more confidence, and with that come expense. I also think we can afford it, more so now than we've ever been able to (other than the year we came down and blew a good team on Monk).

Like I say, I think the time has gone to find a cheap striker for this year, who will perform, we tried last year and it never worked, but it worked in positions like for Jones, Crooks, Dijksteele, probably McGree etc.

I think we think Larson might have chance to be similar level, and maybe cheaper. It's more of a gamble to me, but far less of a gamble than a £2m player from League 1 or Hoppe or whatever, same with punting £5m on Payero who nobody had heard of. A prem loan for someone like Armstrong would be fine too, but means we need to repeat that next year or spend next year. Seemingly this is also going to be hard to do, as there's big competition for these players and they're reliant on other exits. Similar with Muniz, I think he would be good, but not as good as Gyokeres, but would be cheaper, maybe even loan, which is a shot to nothing really.
If we have £20m to punt £15m on Gyokeres and £5m on a backup centre mid, and some freebies/ loans elsewhere then that's cool with me, backup positions are far less important. I'd even spend the £15m if that's all we had (I think we have more though), and hope we bring in someone cheap in CM who isn't needed and can always fall back on McNair if need be (not ideal mind). That would catch us out with squad depth mind, but just because the squad wasn't good enough, it wouldn't mean Gyokeres failed and we'd still have him for some time. I think we could get £10m + £5m on promotion, or £5m after 50 games/ a sell on %. I think £15m outright is worse case.

I can see us not getting a prem loan, not getting Larson and then realising we can't waste this opportunity so will have the money sat there to go in on Gyokeres near the end of the window. Risky though as Cov may not sell if they don't have time for a replacement, so we may end up giving them one of ours. Maybe they've already got one lined up.

It's like snakes and ladders, we're near the top now, thanks to some good and largely cost effective and profitable rebuilding and a good manager, and some pretty good work from Pulis and Warnock too. We just need to roll the dice and get a 4 or over to get ahead. If we don't roll the dice and sit on our hands someone else will get in front of us, if we roll anything less than a 4 we could hit a snake and end up back at square one. I don't want three more years of the champo, and Wilder along with some of our better players definitely won't.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
This just doesn't make any sense. Why are you not understanding how the league works? All of the players capable of scoring 20 goals either leave this league or their clubs won't sell. They leave either by promotion or they get bought by a PL team. That means championship teams rarely get the chance to buy the best championship strikers which is why there are very few big money buys at the top of the list.
Tell me what I'm not understanding about how the league works? - Your definition of a capable striker appears to be a striker who has already done it.

34 strikers have done it in the last 10 years, and over 60% of them have cost their clubs £2m or less...

Troy Deeney came from Wallsall (650k), Charlie Austin came from Swindon (£1.6m), Jarrod Bowen came from Hereford (free). Callum Wilson came from Coventry (300k). The list goes on and on...

In fact, there's only 2 or 3 championship clubs who have signed £10m+ strikers in the championship who have then went on to score 20 goals...
 

Nano

Well-known member
Tell me what I'm not understanding about how the league works? - Your definition of a capable striker appears to be a striker who has already done it.

34 strikers have done it in the last 10 years, and over 60% of them have cost their clubs £2m or less...

Troy Deeney came from Wallsall (650k), Charlie Austin came from Swindon (£1.6m), Jarrod Bowen came from Hereford (free). Callum Wilson came from Coventry (300k). The list goes on and on...

In fact, there's only 2 or 3 championship clubs who have signed £10m+ strikers in the championship who have then went on to score 20 goals...
You are ignoring the majority of the dataset. You are looking for someone that has been top scorer once and then working backwards to find out how much they cost but players repeat their performance or leave. Players like Mitrovic 3/3 seasons he has been in the top scorers. Rhodes 4x, Grant 2x, Toney 1, Sharp 5x, McCormack 5x, Grabban 6x, Deeney 4x, Watkins 3x, Pukki 2x, Vydra 3x, Gayle 3x, Britt 5x, Wood 3x, Gray 3x, Murphy 4x, Murray 3x and many many more etc. And most of these players could have another 5 or 6 each if they stayed in the championship instead of the PL.

So the fact that some of them were unknown or cheap is only relative for the 1st season they score a lot of goals because the following season you can't get them cheap anymore. However, if you could have bought any of these players after their first good season then would it have been good value? Ignore the fact that you couldn't buy them because they weren't for sale (or because they got promoted or a PL team bought them), it's a hypothetical. The best indicator of future success as a championship top scorer is past success as a championship top scorer.

There's nothing wrong with your analysis on the face of it but it is data to prove a specific point, aka full of bias, rather than a full dataset that you can draw any conclusion from. You have to consider each season separately because the evidence is that good strikers repeat their performance multiple times. The transfer fee is irrelevant for any season other than their 1st. Their value at the beginning of each of those seasons is more pertinent.
 
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