Bet Builder

I always go for fouls individual players and pray for a dirty, bad tempered match. Some come in, some don't.
 
Hope some of you took advantage of the bet above. I never post bets from my deep net machine learning algorithm, but given the thread title thought it might be of interest to some.
 
Never pick a keg which means your whole bet could go down in the first half.

Pick a player to score/assist never just to score
 
Nothing from my algorithm yesterday but 4 under 2.5 goals identified for today, if anyone is interested.

Troyea, Pau, Vicenza Virtus and Empoli.

I would ignore Empoli, it's no value at 1.48.

At your own risk though fellas. The algorithm has about a 70% strike rate and has made 15 points profit this season. It's not infallable.
 
Laughing said:
Nothing from my algorithm yesterday but 4 under 2.5 goals identified for today, if anyone is interested.

Troyea, Pau, Vicenza Virtus and Empoli.

I would ignore Empoli, it's no value at 1.48.

At your own risk though fellas. The algorithm has about a 70% strike rate and has made 15 points profit this season. It's not infallable.
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I’ve gone with that. 70% strike rate on individual games or 70% strike on accumulators

I assume individual games
 
ForssAwakens said:
I’ve gone with that. 70% strike rate on individual games or 70% strike on accumulators

I assume individual games
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Individual games, I don't back multiples. I think it was Nick Mordin, back in the 80's who did a load of research on multiple bets and gave a proof that betting singles is the only way to go. Not a surprise really.

If I could get a 70% strike rate on 8 and 9 to 1 accumulators I wouldn't be talking to the poor folks on this board, I'd be sunning myself on my 2 million pound yaught somewhere warm.

Multiple bets allow the 1 pound punter to dream big. It's harmless, but you should have your eyes wide open.
 
@Laughing 50% was it this time? Would that get your stake back if betting equal singles on all 4?

I'd be interested to know about the stats behind the 'under 2.5' bet. In the large results set, what proportion of matches finish under 2.5, so theoretically the random chance before any analysis comes in? Is 2.5 the optimal under/over in terms of likely returns?
 
Way_Out_West said:
@Laughing 50% was it this time? Would that get your stake back if betting equal singles on all 4?

I'd be interested to know about the stats behind the 'under 2.5' bet. In the large results set, what proportion of matches finish under 2.5, so theoretically the random chance before any analysis comes in? Is 2.5 the optimal under/over in terms of likely returns?
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You would lose a little bit yesterday, a half point.

The under over 2.5 goals is almost exactly 50/50 across all games 49.8% finishing under over the last 4 seasons across 30 European leagues.

There are some odd leagues the Dutch eredevise has loads of goals.

It was one of the reasons I chose under 2.5 goals.

My algorithm gets about 65% right but not all are selected. I use something called a phi coefficient to judge whether to get involved. That has to be over 0.55. If you filter results above 0.55 phi results go to just over 70%. If you filter by 0.6 phi it gets closer to 75%.

This is all automated but still takes about 4 hours to run analysis on a Saturday over 150 games.
 
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